Underdog ADP Review - May 2025

May 04, 2025

There’s a few different ways to analyze the macro ADP environment, and we’re covering two of them today. First up, we’ll hit the relative ADP prices of each team, as team-level bets are some of my favorite “Core Bets” to make. Secondly, we’ll look at the year-vs-year review, detailing how the macro ADP environment has changed over the last few seasons. I was thrilled to not have to collect that data myself, so thanks to Dan Falkenheim (more on that below).

Part 1: Team ADP - Who’s Expensive, Who’s Cheap

Earlier this offseason, I used Sam Hoppen’s Best Ball Draft Curve that was trained from BBMs 1-3 to create a value based on ADP, to evaluate Travis Hunter. Below, I’ve mapped each player by ADP and team and color coded them by Underdog positions. Using the ADP values Sam created, I’ve also listed the teams in order of cheapest (Free Agents) to most expensive (the Lions).

From this, we can also sort by total value for each team, which helps us to identify how expensive each team is. Below, each team’s total value is sorted into segments, with the team’s earliest ADP player on the far left.1 It’s also color coded to match Underdog. So using the most expensive team, the Lions, as an example, the segments are broken down into Gibbs, ARSB, Jameson Williams, Laporta, David Montgomery, Jared Goff, and Issac TeSlaa.

Over the last few seasons, identifying these team-level bets has a key to best ball success, with the Texans smashing a cheap price in 2023 (and massively failing to live up to the hype in 2024), and the Bengals and Ravens generating strong advance rates last year.

Using this, there a few teams that stand out, which I’ve separated into four buckets.

Expensive Certainty
(Over) Hype Candidates
Simply Underpriced
Cheap Bets

Expensive Certainty (Lions, 49ers, Eagles, Bengals, Ravens, arguably Vikings and Bucs)

The market is extremely comfortable with most or all of the pieces of these teams, and is highly confident that they will be very good offenses in 2025. For the Lions and Bucs, the loss of Ben Johnson and Liam Coen is at least a minor concern, and J.J. McCarthy is entirely unproven for the Vikings, but we did just see a career season from Sam Darnold in the same offense (which probably has a stronger supporting cast this year). Overall, there’s probably more downside risk than the price implies for most of these teams, simply by the nature of their elevated ADPs, but it’s hard to find many holes in the projections. Draft away.2

Overhype Candidates (Falcons, Raiders, Dolphins, Bears)

None of these teams had an good offense in 2024, but each is priced as a top half unit now. There are compelling reasons for it though, with significant additions for the Raiders (Ashton Jeanty, Geno Smith), and the Bears (Luther Burden, Ben Johnson, Coltson Loveland, and a modified offensive line). Based on my rankings, I’m actually good with the Raiders’ ADPs, as Bowers and Jeanty are driving the value, and both are strong bets to be stars. I’m more skeptical of the Bears, as we aren’t getting a discount on any of D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, or Caleb Williams from their 2024 prices, and Burden and Loveland are each top 120 picks. I want to be on Chicago, and I was a believer that the Bears would turn it around most of last season, but it’s unlikely that all/most of their passing weapons will pay off their current ADPs. I expect them to fall over the next few weeks, and I’ll be happy to target them more as the summer goes on.

For the Falcons and Dolphins, I’m highly skeptical of Michael Penix and Tua Tagovailoa leading the 8th and 10th best offenses in the NFL, even with elite skill talent around them. Still, I don’t have a huge issue with the pricing of their individual pieces, so I don’t expect to take a strong stance. For these types of teams, I usually default to being a little less condensed with stacking/correlation, as the combination of the expensive price with my perception of a capped ceiling means I view these teams as having less of a chance to greatly exceed expectation.

Simply Underpriced (Commanders, Bills, Packers)

Uncertainty at the skill positions drives each of these teams low rankings, as each is a far better offense than their 18-20th ADP ranking implies. Put simply, I want to be very in on each of these teams, as they have talent at quarterback to elevate the supporting cast and lead a top 5 offense. While Josh Allen and Jayden Daniels’ dual-threat abilities limit the need for stacking, we probably still want to have at least a weapon or two attached to them for weekly and season-long ceiling. Allen has a slew of cheap options, and Daniels has an alpha stack with Terry McLaurin.

However, it’s the Packers that really stand out here, as they’ve constructed one of the deepest pass-catcher units in the league. Given receiver is a weak-link unit, I want to be very aggressive on Jordan Love (who’s QB16 tag is historically cheap), and stack him with a variety of the Packers receivers. I prefer Jayden Reed to Matthew Golden, who I’m skeptical of, but even without either of them, there’s plenty of stack options available after Love, with Tucker Kraft, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, and even some last round dart throws in Savion Williams and Luke Musgrave. With a deep pass-catching unit, talented quarterback, strong playcaller, good starting running back, and a quality offensive line, the Packers are my early favorite for most valuable best ball team in 2025.

Cheap Bets (Broncos, Patriots, Panthers, Titans, and if Rodgers, Steelers)

The Broncos easily lead this group, as a slightly cheaper and slightly worse version of the Packers. They have a young, talented QB, a quality playcaller, a deep but non-elite pass-catching unit, an exciting rookie RB, and arguably the best offensive line in the league last year. However, other than R.J. Harvey, no one is really excited to draft any Broncos, which is partially due to Bo Nix’s dual-threat style and accuracy issues. Still, the Broncos are more talented than their 23rd place in ADP suggests, and are a good bet to outperform.

Each of the other teams requires a bit of projection.

The Patriots have added all around Drake Maye, but a lot of that ultimately rests on an aging Stefon Diggs returning from an ACL tear, and a rookie receiver from Washington State. I like each at ADP, but it’s easy to see scenarios where Maye is forced to scramble around behind an improved-but-still-bad offensive line for most of 2025. Still, I’m a Maye believer, and like all of the additions, and their currently priced as the 27th offense, so I’m comfortable taking a strong position on Maye and the Pats.

The Titans are the cheapest offense in the league, with Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard serving as the team’s clear-cut #1 options. I don’t love either at ADP, but the volume should be strong, and there are scenarios where Cam Ward drives an efficiency boost later in the year. I don’t expect the Titans to be one of my most concentrated teams.

The Panthers are similar to the Titans, but with more fun skill players, and more late stacking options. The Bryce Young split has to be at the forefront of this discussion, as he finished as a QB1 in three of his last six starts to end 2024.

With the addition of Tet McMillan, Young now has a quality receiver room to pair with two solid running backs and a good playcaller in Dave Canales. McMillan’s eventual price will probably be a bit rich for me (expecting his ADP to settle in the late 3rd), but I am excited about the Panthers as a whole. Given the slew of late-round stacking options, I expect to be overweight on Young and the Panthers, and serve as my “oh-shit” stacking option in the last few rounds.

Part 2 - The Macro ADP Environment

Dan Falkenheim covered it one way last week, in a series of tweets, that examined how BBM6 ADP differs from years past. Since Substack no longer allows embedded tweets, I’ve directly included his graphs below. In short, Dan found that QBs 6-13 and TEs 3-10 are historically cheap, with a strong return of RBs 12-30 primarily filling that ADP void. WRs, while not at their peak pricing, remain above their BBM3-5 average (and WR42-50 are actually at their most expensive). As I’ve written in each of 2023 and 2024, I think market has significantly improved in valuing the positions, and the various archetypes within the positions.

Tight End and Quarterback: Elites or Push

For example, the fall in the TE prices should come as no surprise. There are only two TEs that are locked-in #1 options for their teams, in Brock Bowers and Trey McBride. Each has the massive spike week potential that is critical to success to in the playoff weeks, but their status as #1 options/volume monsters is what elevates their ADP to round two. While George Kittle, Sam Laporta, and T.J. Hockenson all have the valuable spike week potential, each is no better than the #2 on their own teams (assuming teammate health). Because of this, the market has (correctly IMO), priced them down to a more palatable range.

Beyond those five, there’s a big grouping of talented but volatile options, ranging from Jonnu Smith to Dalton Kincaid or so. Historically, we’ve been horrible at ranking these mid-TE options, and the market has rightfully adjusted. While I do prefer Mark Andrews to Jake Ferguson to Dalton Kincaid, it’s easy to see scenarios where Kincaid is more valuable than either. The market is essentially pricing in this uncertainty more than ever, and most quality drafters will probably simply prefer whichever one is a correlated piece for their current team.

At QB, there’s a similar process occurring, as drafters continue to de-value pocket passers, including Patrick Mahomes. As Dan notes, there’s a clear top five, with only Joe Burrow not serving as a true dual-threat option among them. After that, there’s a roughly two round gap before Mahomes, with historically low prices lasting all the way until Justin Herbert at QB15. While the market is probably correct to price it this way, it’s difficult not to be excited about the QB6-15 range, as there are some dual-threat options within, and multiple QBs capable of a MVP-level passing season.

However, it’s also difficult to aggressively target that range, as there’s a slew of upside just behind it, with Dak Prescott, Jordan Love, C.J. Stroud, Trevor Lawrence, and J.J. McCarthy, and Michael Penix available in the QB16-QB21 range. Like with TE, I expect quality drafters to again let stacking be the primary determinant of which of these QBs they target. Generally, this leads to a game of chicken with QBs, as sharp drafters try to push their QB stacks further and further down the draft board to create value. Usually, this leads to significantly cheaper QB ADPs at the end of the summer than the start. However, with historically-low prices already in place, I’m curious if that dynamic sticks this year, or if drafters will be more willing to simply complete the stack. I’m not sure if the pricing was historically during the Big Board, but I did feel less pressure to push QB in this range than I had in the past, as the opportunity cost felt low (free agent Keenan Allen vs completing a Jordan Love stack?).

Bottom line, I personally will probably be less inclined to try to extract additional ADP value at QB in this QB6-20 range than in years past, barring a exciting player rocketing up the draft board in that range (though we did have multiple instances of this in the Big Board with Travis Hunter, Christian Kirk, and Stefon Diggs). I still expect Burrow and Mahomes ADPs to get pushed lower through the summer (and like with Stroud last year, I think that’s sharp), but I’m not going to be pushing Drake Maye for “value” so I can select Travis Etienne or Zach Charbonnet. At these prices, completing the stack is probably more important than some small value creation.

Running Back and Wide Receiver: Balance at last

As far as the RB and WR dynamic, I again think this fits with the broader narrative that that market is getting sharper. The fall of RB prices probably went too far in seasons past, as the dead zone became mainstream (after years of easy button success). This year, with an influx of running back talent and clear talent/style gaps at TE and QB, a rise in running back ADP in this range is probably warranted.

However, I do think which RBs we target in this range is important, as we will functionally need more from them than in years past.3 While Alvin Kamara and Aaron Jones were solid picks in the 70s last year, an ADP of 53 for Kamara and 77 for Jones (despite reporting that Jordan Mason is in line for the goal-line role) strike me as tough sells. Additionally, there are some workload concerns for Kyren Williams, Breece Hall, and TreVeyon Henderson, despite their high ADPs. Bottom line, I do think a rise in RB ADP in this range is broadly correct, but the specific profiles will again matter more than did last year (like with targeting upside in the dead zone in years past).

At WR, I don’t have strong takeaways for the second year in a row, as the market’s ability to identify the proper ordering of WRs through pick 100 or so again looks solid — though it is curious that the WR42-WR51 range is slightly more expensive. I’m reading that as a moderate effect similar to the rise in RB ADPs from the fall of the QBs and TEs, and put simply, I’m not concerned about the higher price in this range.

I will note that I do have a few notably strong takes vs the market at WR, mostly due to what I perceive as a complete mis-prioritization of situation over talent.

As I have written in what feels like every article of the last two years, Josh Downs is a star receiver whose price is only WR51 because of Anthony Richardson (who is ~50/50 to be the starter). As I wrote in my Big Board guide, “it’s hard to see many paths to failure for Downs, given he finished as WR40 in Richardson games last year (WR33 without him), and is currently being drafted as WR49 (now WR51). In the scenarios where Richardson takes a step forward, or Jones provides baseline competence, Downs is probably significantly beating ADP.” While I’m usually a strong diversifier in my best ball portfolio, if Downs stays in this range, I’m drafting more than 30%.

The other notable exception is George Pickens, who is not a player I’ve been particularly high on in fantasy. However, Pickens is simply a better receiver than D.K. Metcalf at this stage of their careers, despite Metcalf’s going 20 picks ahead of him. Over the last two seasons, Pickens has had a 2.28 YPPR in each year, while Metcalf was at 2.16 and 1.88, and Pickens has outperformed him in ESPN’s Receiver Rating. Aaron Rodgers (who is better than most think/want him to be) probably has to join the team for Pickens to meet my lofty rank of him, but if he does, I’d comfortably select Pickens at the 5/6 turn.

That’s it for the first Underdog ADP of 2025. Hope you enjoyed, and best of luck drafting!

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