Five Core Bets

Putting plans into action

Welcome Back

Hello everyone, I’m glad to be back writing after a wild few weeks of traveling, drafting, and playing through the first season of my college buddies and I’s “Out The Mud” online dynasty in College Football 25. You will almost certainly hear more about this dynasty going forward, as each of our 16 users starts as a coordinator at a 1 or 2 star program and works his way up. In college, we had multiple dynasties last nearly a decade, with multiple national championships won by teams like Navy, North Texas, BYU, and Wake Forest. Now that we’re all in our 30s, keeping that pace up will be difficult (as will defeating the 12 year olds), but man it’s been a blast to be back in the college football streets and virtually hanging out with guys I haven’t seen or talked to in nearly a decade. Kudos to the EA team and everyone involved in bringing this game back.

With that said, I am very excited to be writing about best ball again, as I am emerging from a slow draft hell of epic proportions. Over the last month, I entered roughly 400 slow drafts nearly simultaneously, including maxing Underdog’s The Puppy 2, Drafter’s $2 mini, getting my Best Mania entries to the halfway point (75), and knocking out a bunch of The Sprint entries. It’s been equal parts awesome and exhausting. Perhaps the most fun aspect of this is seeing all of my exposures at the end, and tracking those to the bets I planned to make going into those drafts.

Today’s article is about those planned “core bets”, and how/why I’m making them. As my core, the idea will be to pair a diversified portfolio around them, maxing the chances that when I’m right about my core, those teams hit near their ceiling outcomes. Without further ado, let’s get to it.

Core Bet #1 - Elite Tight Ends (yes, George f’n Kittle counts)

I’ve written about all I have to say about the elite tight ends in this article earlier this year. Recapping slightly, the old guys are still elite, and the young guys are very good and ascending. This is the deepest pool of elite tight ends we’ve had in recent memory, which is depressing their ADPs as a group, and increasing the probability that we need a higher tight end score in the playoff weeks (and to win Best Ball Mania, you’ve had to have one in the playoffs every season so far). The late-round tight end options are relatively poor, with minimal upside plays (a la Laporta and McBride last year).

Bottom line, I think they are *the* single best bet of the 2024 season. And I’m drafting like it.

On Underdog, I’m overweight every elite tight end, with a cumulative ownership of 99%. While I would love to say that I’ve drafted an elite TE on 99% of teams (#ForTheBrand), the reality is slightly smaller than that, as I do think the Bully TE strategy is more viable this year, and I want a small percentage of my teams to reflect that.

Using the DraftIQ tool at Spike Week, I can see that I’ve drafted a top-6 TE (their definition of elite TE) on 70% of teams, with only 1% of teams being Bully TE. This definition excludes George Kittle, who as the title of heading indicates, absolutely meets my definition of an elite TE (given he’s ya know, coming off the second-best ESPN TE Rating of all time). Adding in my 19% Kittle exposure, it’s likely that my elite TE stance is roughly 88%.

Despite the heavy elite TE stance, DraftIQ let’s me see that I’m roughly in line with the average ADP, as the tight grouping of them prevents the need to reach ahead of ADP often to take an overweight position. Going forward, I expect to draft elite TE at an about 85% clip (reducing ever so slightly), which fits well with my intent to draft a bit more of Brock Bowers (4% right now).

Core Bet #2 - Nico Collins and the Texans

The level of Nico hype this offseason has been a nonstop drumbeat from every type of source imaginable. Matt Harmon listed him as his 6th best WR under the age of 25, with Collins absolutely dominating in Reception Perception this year, scoring in the 94th percentile vs man, 62nd percentile vs zone, and 96th percentile vs press.

His efficiency metrics are also sterling, ranking as the youngest player to run 300+ routes and earn over 3.00 yards per route run (YPPR), and the most efficient player in the league when facing press coverage last year, with a *4.39* YPPR.

Yet, until recently, Collins was going in the late-second round as WR15. This was likely because of concerns about Collins’ overall volume, given the arrival of Stefon Diggs and presence of Tank Dell. Some sharp analysts are concerned about the volume, and it is certainly not a given that the Texans pass more in 2024. In that scenario, it will likely be difficult for one of the Texans WRs to not pay off their aggressive ADPs. However, even if they don’t pass more, I find it highly unlikely that Collins, arguably the best X receiver in the league and the only lock on the Texans for all 2WR and 1WR sets, is the one to falter.

Simply put, from a talent perspective, Collins should be a late-first round pick who has regularly gone in the mid-to-late second round. In a year where we should playing the 1.12 like the bad hand because of a tier drop and flat projections, why not place our bet on an underpriced WR talent tied to an ascending Shanahan-style offense with a superstar QB that is likely to throw more? We should, and I am.

As for the rest of the Texans, I’m mostly in, for the reasons I just said. Dell was phenomenal last year, ranking 10th in ESPN’s receiver rating (Collins was 3rd, Diggs 67th), and finishing 16th in YPPR (2.36) of WRs with more than 100 routes (Collins 3.33, 3rd and Diggs 2.06, 28th). Even with concerns about his role in 2WR sets and size/injury, he’s a fun pick at the 3/4 turn, and I’m at 16% so far.

Diggs and Mixon are both declining talents that I don’t love at ADP, but Diggs in particular is a still very talented player and each is a correlated bet with Nico and the other Texans. I expect to be at/slightly overweight each.

C.J. Stroud is probably slightly overpriced, given his lack of rushing upside and the ADP gap to Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott, who are similarly talented QBs, leading highly-projected offenses. However, the combo of the addition of Diggs, more passing volume, and Stroud’s potential improvement entering year two is hard to ignore. I can understand the concerns of his median projection relative to ADP, but in the ceiling scenarios required to win top-heavy tournaments, Stroud probably stands out. Additionally, the board regularly allows us to push Stroud beyond ADP, if you’re willing to stack without the QB and adjust if needed.

In the time-boxed Puppy 2, I could regularly take Nico + one of Dell/Diggs (and a Raven), and push C.J. Stroud past ADP, resulting in a slew of teams like this.

The result of this tactic was often a double (or triple) stacked Stroud, behind ADP, with a week 17 game stack tied to an elite TE, on a structurally strong team with WR firepower. That… seems good.

While the Puppy 2 days are gone, Stroud continues to fall (now at an ADP of 69) in part because of this dynamic, as sharp drafters are willing to stack without the quarterback, and adjust if someone wants to take an unstacked Stroud. In this board, we can still take Nico in the mid-second, one of Diggs/Dell in late round 3 (32/35 ADP), one of Flowers/Andrews in round 4/5, and attempt to push Stroud to the 7th, where concerns about his lack of rushing upside start to dissipate.

Overall, while I do want to be careful with overemphasizing this one specific team/tactic and continue to maintain a diversified portfolio, it’s been hard to pass on, given the structural, correlation, and my player takes that Nico and Andrews are each the two most underpriced players going in the first five rounds. Per DraftIQ, I have a week 17 Texans-Ravens correlation on 29% of my teams, 10% higher than my next most drafted correlation. Going forward, I expect to continue hammering this strategy in timeboxed tournaments, while easing off in Best Ball Mania and other tournaments that will run all summer, in hope that I might be able to take similar versions of this team with 8th round Stroud in late August.

Core Bet #3 - The Adjacent Maye (and yes Maye too)

In June, I wrote about how I preferred to play the Drake Maye question through adjacent bets that limit my downside risk if the Patriots decided to start Jacoby Brissett for longer than expected (or if Maye is bad). While I have absolutely achieved that, I have also just taken Maye quite a bit, as he is my third-most drafted QB through 218 Underdog drafts.

Macro-wise, I want to be slightly flatter at quarterback than I am now, which will probably reduce my Maye (and Stroud) exposure slightly. Stacking without the QB probably continues to be an underrated edge, so I should be more willing to do it. However, when it’s the 16th round or later, and I know there is essentially no ADP edge anymore (Hayden Winks’ chart I couldn’t find here), the appeal of just completing the stack with Maye is hard to pass up. Going forward, I’d like to keep Maye at no higher than 14%, and prefer getting back down to my intended 10-12%, while still betting heavily on his adjacent pieces.

For his adjacent pieces, I’m still fine with Ja’lynn Polk at his current ADP, despite loving lots of other players in that range (including my next core bet). I don’t *love* any of the other Patriot receivers, with Javon Baker simultaneously being both the highest upside and lowest floor player (though both the film and statistical analysts love him). Bourne is a better football player than Osborne, but Osborne is more likely to play earlier in the year due to Bourne’s injury recovery, so I usually let my WR composition dictate which I take. More rookies/suspension risk guys = Osborne, less of that = Bourne. Ultimately, I want to be overweight Baker, but also want more of Osborne and Bourne. That’s tough to do in Underdog’s 18 round format, but is much easier in the 20 rounds of Drafters and Draftkings.

As for the Patriots RBs and TEs, I like, but don’t love the price on each of them. Rhamondre is a talented player, but probably not an elite one. Given the Patriots poor offensive line, he seems like a dead zone back priced in the new, much comfier dead zone. Gibson is a worse version of Rhamondre, but would probably perform fairly similar in Maye’s upside scenarios, and is often a cheap correlated bet. He’ll likely remain one of most drafted RBs. I really like Hunter Henry’s weekly upside, but he goes significantly higher than the other late-round TEs I like, which has made it challenging for me to get him. That said, I doubt the market allows him to fall, so I’ll continue to do my best to remain at or slightly above market on him.

Core Bet #4 - Josh Downs

I get it. Josh Downs is a small slot receiver, who is unlikely to play in 2WR sets, on a team with an inaccurate QB that will likely be among the league leaders in rushing attempts. His ceiling scenarios are likely capped, barring an injury to Michael Pittman or Anthony Richardson. I don’t care.

Downs is arguably the most talented receiver going after round 6 (Diontae Johnson), yet he goes in the 12th round at pick 133 (and is dropping). When healthy, Downs nearly matched current 3rd round pick Michael Pittman in both production ad efficiency on a per route basis, and his film backs it up, as Downs finished in the 93rd percentile vs man, 82nd percentile vs zone, and 69th percentile vs press in Reception Perception. In short, Josh Downs is a damn good football player.

And in this WR environment… we tear ourselves and everyone else around us to pieces for a talented late-round wide receiver.

So far, I’m at 22% Downs through 218 Underdog drafts, and that doesn’t even include a $500 Big Dog team (where I considered diversifying but ultimately couldn’t pass).

Downs is one of the purest core bets I have, as I am willing to take him on basically on any team and in any structure. He is a priority on teams where I’m betting the WR market has Jumped the Shark and on Richardson stacks. Downs will almost certainly remain one of my most drafted players of the summer (and is on each of my three dynasty teams).

Core Bet # 5 - Late round rookies

While the days of getting Garrett Wilson, Justin Jefferson, and other early highly drafted round one receivers in the double-digit rounds is over, there is still a slew of late round rookie with upside. While there odds of hitting that upside, and in some cases, even there median projection, is much lower, they still offer a unique chance at late season upside in the late rounds. And this year, there seems like a plethora of options, which allows us to place a macro bet on all of them, diversifying for correlation, bye weeks, and any other considerations you might have.

So far, I’m at or overweight nearly all of the late round rookie WRs:
Devontez Walker 20%, Ja’Lynn Polk 17%, Jalen McMillan 16%, Jermaine Burton 13%, Ricky Pearsall 12%, Javon Baker 11%, Xavier Legette 11%, Troy Franklin 9%, Malik Washington 5% (who rarely gets drafted)

I’m slightly behind Roman Wilson 6% and Malachi Corley 5% (as I think both are mediocre prospects), but even them, I’m not too far underweight.

Similarly, at running back, I’m at or overweight most mid/late round rookies:
Kimani Vidal 13%, Trey Benson 13%, Bucky Irving 12%, Jonathan Brooks 11%, Ray Davis 11%, Blake Corum 11%, Braelon Allen 8%, Audric Estime 8%, Jaylen Wright 8%

I’m only slightly behind on Marshawn Lloyd 6% (which is a mistake I intend to correct shortly) and Tyrone Tracy 5%.

Simply put, the thesis on the mid/late round rookies remain the same as ever. They’re volatile, wide range of outcomes bet, with weighted late season upside in the weeks that matter the most. Keep on drafting them.

As always, thanks for reading and happy drafting!