Tight End Spike Weeks are a Playoff Skeleton Key

...and the market has never valued them less

As a drafter in the best ball stone age, it was common knowledge that drafting an elite tight end was one the easiest and strongest edges available to us—as long as you could stomach the volatility. Because of that, elite tight end became a staple of my best ball strategy. Yet, as best ball has exploded into the Second Age, drafters have continually discounted the tight end position, with someone even recently hitting us with the oh-so-brutal “TE doesn’t matter tweet” like its a early 2010s RB discussion. This negative sentiment is despite the elite tight end strategy being a critical part to winning Best Ball Mania in two of the last three seasons. Why is this the case?

The Late-round TE strategy

I’ve written before about the benefits of steelmanning a position you don’t agree with. In effect, you make the strongest case you can for this position, which allows you to truly evaluate the merits of that argument. This puts us into Scientist mode, which is always our goal with analysis. So to do this for the late-round tight end strategy, as I understand it, the argument for late-round TE is this:

• We only have to start one tight end

• They score the least points of any position

• In an ideal week, a tight end should almost never hit your flex position.

• The tight end position is also more volatile than other positions, offering (supposedly) less predictability

• TEs have higher historical injury rates than other positions

• TEs supposedly separate less from replacement level tight ends

• Starting tight ends can be found in the last round of drafts, whereas this is less common with other positions

Because of these factors, the late-round tight end strategy argues for drafting three late-round tight ends (round 7 or later), enabling us to mostly tread water TE, while gaining an edge at the positions where we can more predictably separate from the field. And by evaluating this position via the Rotoviz Roster Construction Explorer, we see that this is absolutely a viable position.

Using 2021-2023 data from Underdog, we see that when drafting three tight ends after round six (aka avoiding the elite tight ends), this strategy has generated an above average playoff, semi-finals rate, and finals advance rate.

Breaking it down by year offers further insights.

In 2021, the three late-round TE strategy offered above average playoff and semi-finals advance rates, before falling off a cliff in finals advance rate (more on that later).

In 2022 and 2023, the late-round TE strategy was above average in all three advance rates.

As I said above, late-round tight end is absolutely a viable, better than average strategy. I will absolutely use this strategy some. That said, is it the best tight end strategy?

Elite TE has similar results… with added benefits

Using the same data, we see that from 2021-2023, an elite tight end strategy (2 TEs total, one taken before round 7) offered similar results.

In 2021, elite TE smashed, generating a slightly above-average advance rate before absolutely crushing in semi-finals and finals advance rate.

In 2022, we see a slight drop-off in each, but again with great results in the playoff weeks.

In 2023, those results flip entirely. For the first time, despite posting an above-expectation playoff advance rate, we see elite tight end fail completely in the playoffs.

Comparing Elite TE with Late-round TE

From the chart below, we can make some basic conclusions.

• Both strategies generated better than expectation playoff advance rates.

• Late-round TE offers a slightly better playoff advance rate (0.6%, or roughly 1 more advancing team per 150 entries).

• However, Elite TE makes this ground up in the playoffs, offering better semi-final and finals advance rates, ultimately proving to be a slightly more effective strategy in the aggregate.

Why is this the case?

Elite TEs are playoff rockets… but can be playoff anchors

I’ve written on dynamics of elite TE before, as has BBM4 champ Pat Kerrane. I’d encourage you to read both of those articles, as they really drive home what the bet is when you an elite tight end.

Summing up those articles, the Elite TE bet is this:

Drafting an elite tight end offers predictable spike week upside that can uniquely separate you from the field in the playoffs at a (small) cost of regular season advance rate. We saw this exact situation play out in 2022 and 2021, with multiple elite tight ends. However, in 2023, as we saw above, the elite tight ends had a better regular season before flopping in the playoffs.

Let’s dive in to those scenarios.

In 2022, George Kittle was a lower-than-average advance rate player. But after two consecutive boom weeks, he offered the highest semi-final and finals advance rate of any tight end, and the highest finals advance rate of any regularly drafted player. In the finals, he only scored 10 points, but he was still on the tournament winning team. In short, George Kittle, despite having a mediocre overall season, was one of the key “guys you had to have.” Score one of the elite tight strategy.

In 2021, a similar scenario played out. Travis Kelce served as the low-advance-rate but key playoff contributor, ranking 2nd in semi-finals advance rate among tight ends after a playoff spike week. At the same time, Mark Andrews generated the second-highest semi-final advance rate and the highest finals advance rate of any player. Both were key pieces to playoff success. Score another for the elite tight end strategy.

However, in 2023, we saw the elite tight ends fall off a cliff in the playoffs. Why?

For starters, it was because no elite tight end separated in any playoff week. In weeks 15-17, the top elite tight end scored 9.3 points (TE11), 16.1 (TE1) points, and 7.6 points (TE16). With two horrible weeks, and a solid but unspectacular week 16, this was a bad outcome for the elite tight ends, and very unlikely (~15% chance). But just this bad outcome alone probably should not have decimated the elite TEs playoff advance rates.

In addition to the poor performance from the elite TEs, a late-round TE smashed. In week 15, Sam Laporta dropped 26.1 points, which was the third-highest TE score of the season. Laporta posted a semi-finals advance rate of 4.97%, which was the second-highest advance rate of any player, only behind Christian McCaffrey 5.64% (in which he scored 39.2 points). In effect, it was the combination of the bad performance by the elite tight ends with the added late-round tight smash that crippled their advance rates.

This seems bullish for the late-round tight end strategy, and it’s entirely fair for advocates of the late-round tight end strategy to claim the win with Sam Laporta. With an ADP of 152, he certainly qualified. But I also think we should acknowledge that 2023 was a bit of a special case. We knew, at that time, that the 2023 rookie tight end class was extremely good. Many longstanding elite tight end truthers were drawn to the late round strategy explicitly because of that rookie class, predicting that Sam Laporta, Trey McBride (not a rookie but similar bet), and Dalton Kincaid as late round breakout candidates. One year later, and each of those guys is being drafted at elite TE ADPs.

Because of that, I think we should draw a different lesson from 2023.

TE Playoff Spike Weeks are a Skeleton Key

As mentioned, Laporta had an awesome week 15. But it’s the rest of his playoffs that are the most bullish for the importance of tight end spike weeks.

In week 16, Laporta scored 3.3 points, which was TE38 on the week. Despite that, Laporta still finished with the fourth-highest finals advance rate of any player, and was first among TEs. But wait… there’s more. In the Best Ball Mania finals, Laporta scored 11.9 points, finishing TE6 on the week. Despite not using Laporta’s score, the winner of Best Ball Mania still had Laporta on his team.

In effect, despite offering nothing in week 16 or 17, Laporta’s week 15 was so valuable that he helped power a team to a Best Ball Mania win.

This mirrors the effect we saw with Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce in 2021, and George Kittle in 2022, and we now have three straight years of a tight end finishing with the highest or second highest semi-finals/finals advance rate of any player at any position. Simply put, a tight end spike week is arguably the most important factor in playoff best ball success.

That is obviously extremely bullish for elite TEs, as they make up the vast majority of TE spike weeks. However, it’s also an indicator that we should be chasing talented (or potentially talented) tight ends late, and not merely guys who can tread water at the position. If we are using a late-round tight end strategy, we should prioritize guys who are capable of a 25 point week in the playoffs. Luckily for us, the market probably took the wrong lesson from 2023.

The 2024 ADP Shift

The below graphic details the change in ADP from 2022 to 2024, courtesy of Underdog’s Hayden Winks.

As we can see, compared to 2022, the average ADPs of the elite TEs (TEs 1-6) has decreased by 4.5 spots, while the average ADP of the second tier of TEs (TEs 7-18) has increased by 16 spots, and the average ADP of the last tier of TEs (TEs 19-28) has remained the same. We see a similar change in 2023, with each of the top four TEs relatively cheaper than their later round counterparts.

Essentially, the market is de-prioritizing the elite tight ends (and consequentially tight end spike weeks, as most of those predictably come from the elite TEs). One argument for this is that the elite tight are no longer as good as they used to be, as Kelce, Andrews, and Kittle are all approaching or over the age of 30. This is certainly plausible, but do we have evidence to support that argument yet?

The Elite Tight Ends Are Still Elite

We have seven seasons of ESPN open score, with a total of 378 tight end seasons. Here is where the elite tight ends (rounds 1-6 by 2024 ADP) ranked in 2023:

While it’s plausible that the old guys of Kelce, Andrews, and Kittle will fall off due to age in 2024, we have next-to-zero evidence of an impending decline, as each finished above the 90th percentile in Open Score and posted near their career-best score. To be sure, the risk of a black marble season is more likely now than ever before, but that isn’t stopping us from drafting a 28 year old running back 1.01. If any of those three has a cause for concern, it’s probably Kelce, who posted the worst YAC Score of his career. But, Kelce is now a 3/4 turn pick, roughly two rounds cheaper than he’s been in years. At that ADP, the risk of decline is priced in.

In actuality, if there is a reason for skepticism among the elite TEs, it’s probably more warranted for the younger guys.

Each of Laporta and McBride had sub-elite Open Scores and poor-to-mediocre YAC scores, with finishing Laporta 266th (29th percentile) and McBride finishing 155th, (59th percentile). However, each offered elite Grown-Ass-Man appeal, ranking above the 90th percentile in Catch Score. If you aren’t going to get open or earn yards after the catch, you better be elite at the catch point, and in 2023, each was dominant. Still, my read is that Catch and YAC Score are probably more volatile year-to-year than Open Score, so each will likely need to improve there to truly cement themselves as elite tight ends.

Meanwhile, Kincaid struggled in YAC score (35th percentile), but he backed up his 90th percentile Open Score with a 83rd percentile in Catch Score. Now assumed to be Josh Allen’s #1 threat, Kincaid probably offers a higher floor than most of the other elite TEs, even if he hasn’t yet shown the elite talent of the proven vets.

If there is a weak link in the group, it’s probably Pitts. Along with his mediocre Open Score, Pitts finished 70th percentile in Catch Score and a horrendous 6th percentile in YAC score. While some of this was almost certainly do to injury, we have minimal evidence to conclude that Pitts is an elite tight end. Through three seasons in the league, he’s finished no better than 88th percentile in any metric (Open Score in 2022). That said, he’s arguably the best tight end prospect of all-time, one of only two tight ends to post 1,000 yards as a rookie, and has suffered through one of the lowest catchable pass rates in the league to start his career. While the ADP over Kittle is aggressive, Pitts does probably offer the weekly upside of an elite tight end, even if his deep ADOT and weak blocking skills increase his volatility and decrease his floor.

Overall, I’m highly confident that this group of tight ends is among the league’s most talented. We’ve historically been very good at ranking tight ends, and this years ADPs matches up well with their talent levels. This becomes even more evident when analyzing the second and third tier of tight ends.

The late-round tight ends are who we thought they were

In lieu of a long list of Open Scores for tight ends who are not good, I’ll simply link to my tweet here. Bottom line, the late-rounds at tight end are a wasteland, and without the benefits of a deep and talented rookie class infusing talent as we had last year.

Njoku and Engram look fairly priced as slightly-below elite options, as each finished in the 90+ percentile in Open Score but with mediocre Catch and YAC results last season. When I miss out on an elite tight end, each becomes a priority. After that, it’s a tough scene for TEs that get open, as there’s only one going after pick 100 that has finished in the 90 percentile of Open Score (Juwan Johnson). Luke Musgrave was close (39th, 89th percentile), but he posted a 1st percentile YAC score. Musgrave’s main competition, Tucker Kraft, posted a nearly exactly opposite result, with a 94th percentile YAC Score but a 45th percentile Open Score. If both are healthy, I expect the Packers to continue to use both players.

Like Kraft, Isaiah Likely was a YAC monster (98th percentile), and he had reasonable Open (75th percentile) and Catch (50th percentile) results. Unfortunately, drafting him is essentially a bet that Andrews will get hurt. Still on teams where I have Lamar but miss on Andrews, Likely becomes a priority. This strategy was a feature of my Mastiff team that finished 5th last year. Jonnu Smith is a similar version of the Likely bet, with a 96th percentile YAC Score, but with a 13th percentile Catch Score and 33rd percentile Open Score. However, if any team is built to scheme open some Jonnu YAC opportunities, it’s probably Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins.

Cole Kmet was mediocre at getting open (65th percentile), but his 99th percentile Catch Score was the second best mark of all time behind 2017 Rob Gronkowski. With lots of added target competition, Kmet is probably just a big-man-score-touchdowns bet. But, with a much improved offensive environment, that’s a bet I’m willing to make. Tyler Conklin is a similar, albeit worse, version of this bet, with a 96th percentile Catch Score but a 9th percentile Open Score, though he does get a throw-you-open quarterback in Aaron Rodgers. Given that being tied to an elite QB has been a useful predictor for late round tight end breakouts, I’ll be on in Conklin again in 2024.

Overall, the 2024 late-round environment seems much worse than last year, though we do get two exciting rookie prospects in Brock Bowers and Ben Sinnott. Each has reasons for concern (aggressive ADP/running rookie QB for Sinnott, bad landing spot and offense for Bowers), but both are talented options that should be peaking late in the season. Bowers in particular pairs well with Engram or Njoku, where they offer a solid weekly floor, while Bowers could provide massive spike week upside down the stretch. Bottom line, punting three late tight ends probably remains a viable strategy in 2023, but we shouldn’t kid ourselves about the potential for late-round upside this year.

How I’m playing TE in 2024

As usual, my primary strategy is to grab an elite tight end. Like others I usually find myself in tune with, grabbing 4-5 WRs in the first seven rounds, plus one elite tight end, will probably serve as the foundation for my strategy this year. However, given the sky high WR ADPs, ensuring I get at least four WRs through seven rounds will likely take precedence over an elite tight end (unless this man stays in round 12 all summer). When I miss on an elite TE, snagging one of Engram or Njoku becomes my last chance for a two tight end build. If I miss on those guys, it’s time to embrace the three late tight end build, but with an extreme focus on players that are either talented, potentially talented, or that are tied to an elite passing QB.

Overall, I expect to make a extremely heavy directional bet on the elite TEs, with a minimum of ~10% exposure to each of them (with the possible exception of Laporta if he rises and stays at the 2/3 turn all summer). I’ll also add that I’m highly intrigued about the potential to leverage tight end playoff spike weeks with the new, flatter, payout structure of Best Ball Mania. I’m still thinking through it, but it seems to me that a week 16 (or even 15) mini stack with an elite tight end and bring back, coupled with two week 17 game stacks, fits nicely into the extremely narrow, but optimal path, we’re looking for to win Best Ball Mania V.

As always, thanks for reading, and happy drafting.