The Sketch: Week One
What to do with Andre Iosivas
Welcome to the Week One of The Sketch, which will be the flagship Reducing Uncertainty publication for the 2024 NFL season. I detailed my plan for The Sketch here, so be sure to check that out if you haven’t already. I will note that the week one of The Sketch is entirely free, but that the analysis section of it will be paywalled going forward (the data section will always be free). If you subscribe, you’ll get analysis and insights in each of the redraft, best ball, and DFS realms, to include a revitalization of my game environment series I used to write at Rotoviz, week-ahead waiver targets, and a weekly DFS plan of attack for Draftkings. If you’re interested in that, please consider becoming a paid subscriber below.
Without further ado, let’s dive into week one of The Sketch.
Section One: Data
The chart below is intended to be a one-stop shop for each matchup that details implied points total, expected pace, team pass rates, each teams strength in the passing and rushing game, and the strength of each teams offensive and defensive lines. Below the chart, I’ll analyze a few key points that stand out to me for this week.12 Please note that for week one, we are relying on 2023 data for teams, which reduces how actionable that information is. As the season progresses, that data will become more and more impactful. For this week, I’m primarily focused on the implied totals, as that is probably our best piece of information to rely on. However, even that comes with a lot of input volatility, and I’d encourage you to lean into your own takes in week one more than any other.
Section Two: Analysis (paywalled after this week)
This section will feature four subsections each week.
Game Environment (analyzing implied totals, pace, pass/rush rates, and OL/DL strength)
My DFS plan of attack (favorite stacks, games to target, input volatility, and good chalk/bad chalk)
Redraft Recommendations (week-ahead waiver targets and trade target/sell candidates)
Best Ball resurrection/playoff strategy (more to come later in the season)
Week One Game Environment
A few years ago, I wrote an article at Rotoviz that identified what type of game spreads quarterbacks most commonly exceeded his average points. I broke the spreads in the following groups:
Clear Favorite – Projected to win by 7-plus points
Slight Favorite – Projected to win by 3.5 – 6.5 points
Toss-up – Projected to win by 3 points – lose by 3 points
Slight Underdog – Projected to lose by 3.5 – 6.5 points
Clear Underdog – Projected to lose by 7-plus points
In that study, I found that quarterbacks most commonly outperformed their average production as slight favorites (65%), followed by clear favorites (58%), then toss-ups (54%), slight underdogs (40%), and finally as clear underdogs (25%). In short, we most prefer high implied totals in games expected to be decided by 3.5-6.5 points, which fits with the broader narrative of two offenses pushing each other. I’ve found breaking the week out into these groups helps me sort through start/sit considerations and when creating DFS lineups. This week, we have a few QBs/teams that fit into these groupings nicely.
Slight Favorites
Josh Allen tops the the slight favorites list as a 6.5 point favorite in a game with a total of 47, with Tua Tagovailoa (3.5/49), and Jared Goff (4.5/52) not far behind, and arguably ahead. Each should be started in most redraft formats and both Allen and Tua will be in DFS consideration for me on the main slate.
Clear Favorites
In the clear favorite category, Joe Burrow and the Bengals are projected for 24 points and are 7.5 point favorites over the Patriots. With a high neutral pass rate, the Bengals probably don’t need the Patriots to push them to score. However, targeting the Bengals in DFS may be tricky, as Tee Higgins is likely out with a hamstring injury, Ja’marr Chase hasn’t fully practiced this year due to his contract issues, leaving new starting slot receiver Andrei Iosivas as the likely most popular play on the slate at a min price of $3000. More to come on this in the DFS plan of attack below.
Toss-up games
In the toss-up category, the Texans-Colts matchup looks the most appealing, amidst sky-high optimism for second-year quarterbacks C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson. With the Texans a three-point favorite and a game total of 48.5 (2nd-highest on the main slate), there is certainly shootout potential. The Texans were one of my core best ball bets this summer, and I’m certainly interested this week in DFS, despite an expensive price tag on Stroud. However, while we do expect the Texans to throw more this year, I’m not yet sure if they are truly a pass-first team a la the Chiefs and Bengals, and we might need the Colts to push them for ceiling outcomes.
Fast Pace Games
While we aren’t sure how teams have evolved from last season, both the Vikings-Giants and Browns-Cowboys games feature the same coaching staffs that led their teams to fast neutral paces. While neither of these games carries a high game total, a long TD or two coupled with a high volume of plays could make for much better game environment than anticipated. Given expected low ownership on Justin Jefferson, a Jefferson-Nabers LSU = WRU explosion would certainly be a fun way to kick off 2024.
Slow Pace Games
The chart would have you believe that Bears-Titans is likely to be among the slowest paced games of the week. However, with a turnover in coaching staff for each team, and a likely improvement in the quarterback play for each as well, I’m not buying it. Sneakily, this could be a faster than average pace game, even if the total is a bit lower than the top games. Additionally, if you believe in Caleb Williams, the price may never be lower than this, and the Titans RBs are one of the foremost input volatility scenarios of week one.
Instead, the slowest paced game might be the Dolphins and Jaguars, who each were slightly below average in neutral pace last season. However, each has the potential for explosive offensive plays, and it is the highest totaled game on the main slate (49). I’m not stressing the slightly below average pace, and both Tua and Lawrence will remain in DFS consideration for me.
OL Advantages
The Bills OL looks to have a significant advantage over the Cardinals in both pass and run blocking, which is undoubtedly somewhat factored in the the Bills strong implied team total. In OL advantage mismatches, I’m usually more inclined to think through how that might impact the game. In the Bills case, it’s a bit complicated, given their stark turn to the run game in the second half of last season. If they can, I would expect the Bills to run the ball right down and through the Cardinals, despite having arguably the most talented quarterback in the league.
DL Advantages
While the Jets have improved their offensive line, they really only had one way to go following last season’s rankings of 30th and 29th in Pass Block Win Rate (PBWR) and Run Block Win Rate (RBWR). With the 49ers 10th and 12th ranked DL on tap, Aaron Rodgers and company won’t have an easy start to the season. Similarly, despite all the hype around the 49ers weapons, they have below average offensive line that relies heavily on Trent Williams, who just returned to practice last week, while the Jets have a talented interior pass rush with Quinnen Williams matching up against the 49ers weak guards. Brock Purdy is one of the best at the league at mitigating pressure, and he’ll likely need to do so regularly for the 49ers to have success this week.
The DFS Plan of Attack
This section will usually consists of a few different subsections, listed below:
The centerpiece (the player or team that the slate primarily hinges on)
What to do with the chalk
Input Volatility
Games to target
Teams to target
Lineup starter
The centerpiece
My DFS plan this week centers around what to do with Andre Iosivas. At only $3000, Iosivas projects as both one of the best and most-owned plays on the slate, without many direct leverage options. We should have very low confidence in Iosivas’ actual talent, but his likely #2 role on the passing-heavy Bengals with the majority of slot snaps is great. Given the Bengals high team total (24, 4th-best on the slate) and their commitment to the pass (assuming that translates from 2023), I’ll have at least one lineup (I usually play 6-10) with Iosivas in a Burrow double stack with Chase. While Iosivas is almost certain to be owned at a 25%+ clip, I expect both Burrow and Chase’s ownership to be small, given their matchup with the Patriots. If I elect to play Iosivas in other lineups, I’ll want to be thoughtful about who to pair him with, to limit both total ownership and similar roster construction with the field.
What to do with the chalk
Other than Iosivas, there’s a few other players projecting as chalk. Below I’ve detailed how I plan to handle them, along with my reasoning for that plan. I usually score chalk on a scale of 1-3 (with 1 = hard fade, 2 = open to playing him, and 3 = a priority play) prior to building lineups to decide how I want to approach them before facing salary constraints. While I may change my mind when building, I think removing the slate’s funneling bias is usually a good thing, as it leads us to less similar roster constructions than the field.
Chalk to fade
This week, I want to fade the entire Falcons-Steelers game. While the slew of players project relatively well, it’s a gross game environment with only a 41.5 total, the run-heavy Steelers, and a Falcons offense that enters with an old quarterback coming off an achilles injury and a tight end that was limited in practice with a tight hamstring earlier this week. While I do see the Falcons as a radically different offense this season (with overweight positions on London and Pitts in best ball), I’d prefer fading that priced-in optimism here.
Another player I want to fade this week is Michael Pittman, despite labeling Anthony Richardson a priority. While I like Pittman more than most of with my best ball philosophy, I do think the market hasn’t fully appreciated how different the Colts offense is likely to be. Pittman isn’t a burner and will require lots of underneath and intermediate volume to hit ceiling outcomes in most scenarios. While Richardson probably is an upgrade on Minshew’s near league-bottom catchable pass rate to Pittman, he also has accuracy concerns, and I expect Shane Steichen to transition back to a more run-heavy approach. Instead of Pittman, I much prefer playing the Colts pass game another way this week.
Priority Chalk
Pittman’s volume loss is Richardson’s gain. Last time we saw him, Richardson was leading the league in fantasy points per dropback, despite a small sample. Given his play style, Richardson offers a high floor and only needs one deep bomb or two to finish the week as the highest-scoring QB. With burner rookie receiver Adonai Mitchell priced at only $3800 and likely stepping into two WR sets in a potential shootout vs the Texans, I love the Richardson-Mitchell stack as a way to get different from Iosivas at a similar price point.
Games to target
I don’t see much of a reason to get cute this week, as the three highest totaled games all feature relatively in-check ownerships. Texans-Colts is my favorite, followed by Dolphins-Jaguars, and then Bills-Cardinals. Bills-Cardinals is probably the one I’m most uncertain about, as I could easily see both teams being content with their rush-first identities from the end of last season, which would limit play volume and overall scoring, even if both offenses are efficient. If I do go off the board with another game stack, it’s probably trying to be early on Caleb Williams and nailing the Titans’ RB input volatility, which I’ve detailed below.
Input volatility
This section will list a few places where the projections are most fragile. This week, I think those spots are the mid-round running backs, and the Bills pass catchers. None of the running backs for the Titans, Bengals, Steelers, Broncos, Cowboys, Commanders, or Bears will project well, as we both lack certainty about the roles of those players and their individual ceiling outcomes are so often tied to the luck of scoring a touchdown or getting an ideal gamescript. Because of this, the ownership for these RBs are often depressed, as they make for scary clicks in any lineup.
While I don’t consider myself a mid-round RB whisperer, I do think thoughtfully constructing a gamescript built around a ceiling game from these backs often can lead to outsized rewards. This week, I find the Bengals and Titans guys most interesting, as the Bengals are heavy favorites, generate a large number of expected RB points, have injury/contract issues to their top two receivers, and have a chalk $3000 receiver. In a chalk build without Iosivas, choosing one of Chase Brown and Zack Moss is probably a solid leverage play. For the Titans, both of those backs could be talented, catch lots of passes, and play in a game with a decent total and faster than expected pace. A 20 point game from either Spears or Pollard in combination with a Caleb Williams explosion game would put us on a great path to the top of a tournament, at very small ownership.
Teams to target
My favorite team to target is the Texans, which should come as a surprise to exactly zero of those who have followed my best ball work this summer. While it will be extremely difficult to predict which Texans WR(s) will smash each week, I’m confident that 1-2 of them will in most weeks (as it was last year). In best ball, we don’t mind that at all. In redraft, it’s likely to be extremely frustrating wave to ride. And in DFS, it opens up a beautiful opportunity, as this uncertainty holds all of their ownerships in check. Even with industry-wide excitement about this matchup, none of the Texans WRs or Stroud are projected to be anywhere close to chalk. While Nico and Dell are my preferred options, I love the directional bet of just stacking Stroud with two Texans pass catchers in multiple lineups every week, a la the Tom Brady Buccaneers with Evans, Godwin, and Brown. If they do ascend to that pass-first, elite-level offense that they are probably capable of, it’s wheels up on any given week.
Lineup starters
In this section, I’ll list a few of my favorite starts to lineups this week. These will usually be my highest confidence plays, and I’ll look to fill-in lineups around them, considering ownership, ceiling, etc to make the best possible lineup that I can.
Stroud + Two Texans WRs + AD Mitchell + Tyreek
Stroud + Two Texans WRs + Jonathan Taylor + Iosivas
Burrow + Chase + Iosivas + a secondary correlation
Tua + Achane + Tyreek + Engram + no Iosivas + Chase Brown/Zack Moss
Baker + Godwin/Evans + McMillan + McLaurin
Caleb + DJ Moore + Keenan + Tyjae/Pollard
Redraft Recommendations
Week-ahead waiver targets
QB
Geno Smith (Seahawks may throw the ball a bunch, and Geno and crew is under-rated talent wise. Get Patriots, Dolphins, and Giants the next three weeks)
Justin Fields (if he keeps starting, we know the weekly upside he brings)
RB
Kimani Vidal (massive contingent upside, and could solidify himself as the 3rd-down back this week)
Braelon Allen, Bucky Irving, Ray Davis (contingent upside is sky high with each of these guys, who might also be good)
WR
Andre Iosivas (surprising if he’s still there with the Tee Higgins news, but he’s absolutely worth an add. I bid 4% of my budget in my main league today to add him.)
Jalen McMillan (locked down the WR3 gig early and could just be really good)
Demario Douglas/Ja’lynn Polk (if/when Drake Maye starts, I want the Patriots WR1)
TE
Isaiah Likely (duh)
Defense
Seahawks (vs Patriots)
Colts (vs Packers; only if Love is out)
Kicker
Jason Myers (vs Patriots)
Joshua Karty (vs Cardinals)
Trade targets
Mark Andrews - Andrews still ran 72% of the routes, rated highly in average separation score, and the Chiefs defense doubled him on a high percentage of routes. Maybe he’s more volatile than we expected, but his weekly ceiling remains sky high. In a dynasty league where Juwan Johnson was my TE1, I just swapped Alvin Kamara for Andrews straight up.
Devonta Smith - The Devonta in the slot thesis is coming to fruition, even if his box score wasn’t incredible. Because of that, I expect him to have a higher floor than last season, even if we don’t get quite as many deep bombs.
Trade sells
Saquon Barkley - He was awesome for sure, but if you can swap him for one of the round one WRs, I would still make that deal in the heartbeat. In some leagues, you might even be able to get the round one WR with something else on top.
Best Ball
No best ball inputs yet, as we await Underdog’s resurrection tournament with baited breath.
And that’s it for week one of The Sketch. Enjoy the first NFL Sunday of the year and see you all next week!
Though I would encourage you to examine the chart yourself as well. You know your specific teams and players of interest, and I do not, and you could easily identify a takeaway that I haven’t detailed in the article.