Introducing the Sketch
My Weekly Plan of Attack for the 2024 NFL Season
Happy week one everyone, and let me introduce you to the Reducing Uncertainty plan for the 2024 NFL season, known as The Sketch.
The Sketch will be my weekly article for this year, and it will detail my plan of attack for each week of the season in redraft, DFS, and best ball. It will include some aggregated data from a variety of sources, which will all be entirely free. However, it will also include analysis in each of the redraft, DFS, and best ball realms, which will, for the first time in the history of Reducing Uncertainty, be behind a paywall (after a completely free week one).
Now that I’m closing in on 1,000 subscribers and have received pledges of support, the time feels right to begin receiving some compensation for my work. I can’t thank you all enough for the support so far, and I’m excited to help you guys excel this year.
So, without further ado, let’s dive into the the plan for The Sketch.
Section One: Data (always free)
This section is gathered from data that is freely available, and therefore I want to ensure that is freely accessible to any Reducing Uncertainty reader. However, just because it is free, does not mean it isn’t useful. On the contrary, we are blessed with some extremely useful and predictive data points that are critical to our fantasy success. Each week, in this section, here’s some of what you can expect:
Implied team totals
OL/DL comparison
Neutral pace
Neutral pass rates
EPA offense vs defense comparison
I’ll usually present this in the form of a big table that can serve as a one-stop-shop for that weeks game environment.
Section Two: Analysis (paywalled after week one)
In section two, I’ll provide weekly analysis in each of the redraft, best ball, and DFS realms.
In this section, you can expect:
A revitalization of my Game Environment series from Rotoviz
Week-ahead waiver recommendations
Trade target/sell candidates
a DFS plan of attack that includes my favorite games/stacks, directional bets of the week, and good/bad chalk
Best Ball Resurrection and Playoff strategy (once each arrives)
I’ll also note that I should be available m
ost Sunday mornings for any questions you might have. The easiest way to ask those is to ping me on Twitter, or via a comment on that week’s The Sketch.
Finally, before sending the week one Sketch your way, I did want to touch on some administrative notes.
Scheduling and a Disclaimer
For scheduling, I expect to have this out each week no later than very early Sunday morning, and ideally/usually by Saturday evening. There’s a balance of trying to both be close to the Sunday games for the Game Environment/DFS content to be most useful, while still leaving some time for potential trade or waiver recommendations for redraft. Overall, I think a Saturday evening release fits that narrow window the best, and that’s what I’ll aim for each week.
As far as the disclaimer, I want to be upfront that I’m probably going to miss ~4 weeks of the season, as I’m traveling or have prior commitments that will make it difficult to write The Sketch those weeks. I understand that isn’t ideal, but that’s a reality of Reducing Uncertainty being a one-man show (which also offers some clear advantages for both writer and reader IMO). I’ll make sure to flag these at least a week ahead of time so you guys have a heads up, and I’ll usually still be available on Twitter or via comments for any questions you guys might have.
So, as always, I want to thank each of you for your support, and I hope you find The Sketch valuable this year. You can expect to see the week one version of The Sketch in your inboxes later today. Cheers!