Metrics and Matchups: Week 6

Welcome to Metrics and Matchups, where I’ll detail each of the key metrics for each team, and analyze each matchup for this week. For readers of The Sketch last year, you’ll recognize the chart below, which is color coded to show each team’s strength and weakness. Below that, I’ll analyze each matchup for the week, provide this week’s fast and slow paced games, provide DL and OL mismatches, and pick each game using confidence levels. Let’s get to it.

My other articles for week 6:

• Waiver Targets for Week 6

• Final Thoughts: Week 5

Metrics

Data from Fantasy Points, ESPN, Rotoviz, and RBSDM.

Each week, this section will include analysis on each team’s projected points, pace, and matchup for their upcoming game.

Matchups

Each week, I break matchups down into Slight Favorites, Clear Favorites, and Toss-up games, as those teams (that also have high O/Us) are who we want to target most.²

Slight Favorites (-3.5 to -6.5)

Bills at Falcons

• Market prediction: Bills solid win

• My prediction: Bills solid win

• OL advantage: Bills pass blocking

• DL advantage: None

The Falcons have a weak run defense, and the Bills continue to have a slight preference to attacking on the ground. I expect a heavy dose of James Cook and Josh Allen’s legs to start. When the Bills pass, they’ll have a pass blocking advantage, but the Falcons are among the blitz-heaviest teams in the league. Their success will be determined by how they handle the blitz. Allen can beat the blitz with his mind and with his physicality, and I expect chances for big plays to be there. As usual, each of Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, and Keon Coleman are viable low-end starters.

For the Falcons offense, they have one of the lowest PROEs so far, relying on Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allegier as the centerpieces. The Bills are above average vs the pass and below average vs the run, so I expect that to be the gameplan here as well. However, if the Bills can build a lead, we’ve seen the Falcons shift to aggressive attacks with this coaching staff before. Drake London remains a solid WR2, while Kyle Pitts and Darnell Mooney are viable starters this week. I’d prefer avoiding Michael Penix as a streamer this week.

Bears at Commanders

• Market’s prediction: Commanders solid win

• My prediction: Commanders solid win

• OL advantage: Commanders pass blocking

• DL advantage: None

The Bears have been bad against the run and the pass so far, setting up the Commanders for a choose your path week. Even with Marcus Mariota starting two games, they’ve had a solid lean to the pass, so with Jayden Daniels back, I expect an air-based attack to start. However, each of Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin are questionable again, with Samuel more likely to play than McLaurin. Assuming Samuel plays, he’s a WR2. Zach Ertz did nothing a week ago, but his role has been solid thus far, and he’s a viable low-end TE1. As for the rushing attack, it looks like Bill Croskey-Merritt is taking over the backfield after a monster performance in a good matchup last week. Bill should have room to run here as well, making him a solid RB2.

For the Bears offense, they’ve been perfectly balanced so far, but poor on offense overall. The Commanders defense is slightly better vs the run, but I still expect the Bears to attempt to establish D’Andre Swift early. They probably won’t have much success, and Swift remains a low-end RB2. When passing, the Commanders have given up some explosive, which is music to Caleb Williams’ ears. Williams is still struggling with his consistency, but is finding ways to make plays downfield. So far, that’s primarily occurred via Rome Odunze, who is a solid WR2 again this week. D.J. Moore remains a volatile WR3. Luther Burden is worth a speculative add in case of a post-bye rookie bump, but it’s hard to trust him as a start here.

Patriots at Saints

• Market’s prediction: Patriots close win

• My prediction: Patriots close win

• OL advantage: Patriots run blocking

• DL advantage: Patriots run defense

These two teams are opposite in their offensive approaches, as the Patriots play slowly but throw aggressively, while the Saints play lightning-fast but refuse to stop trying to run the ball. For the Patriots, Drake Maye has led a top ten passing offense so far, even despite one of the worst rushing attacks in the league. Given the Saints are significantly worse vs the pass than the run, it should be bombs away for Maye and company this week. Stefon Diggs has already delivered back-to-back 100-yard games and isn’t even playing the full snaps yet. He’s a WR2 in this matchup. Hunter Henry remains Maye’s most consistent target, and like most weeks, is a solid low-end TE1 option. Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson are each fringe RB3 plays as a bet on a strong Patriots offensive performance.

For the Saints, this matchup should be a litmus test for them offensively, as the Patriots defense is far worse vs the pass than the rush. However, Kellen Moore has refused to throw aggressively so far, and that is probably the most likely outcome here. With a declining rush share and limited receiving volume, Alvin Kamara is quicky losing his starting appeal and is a fringe RB2/3 here. Kendre Miller is a strong bench stash, but it’s hard to trust him in this matchup and in a split rushing role. Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Juwan Johnson continue to draw strong volume, and if the Saints do pass more this week, would have chances at big plays. Playing the Saints to pass more is a sub 50% likelihood bet, but one that probably delivers a shootout if it hits.

Chargers at Dolphins

• Market’s prediction: Chargers close win

• My prediction: Chargers dominate

• OL advantage: None

• DL advantage: None

With the highest combined PROE on the week and an average combined pace, I expected a higher total. But, it’s easy to understand why optimism is muted, as injuries to Tyreek Hill, Omarion Hampton, and to the Chargers two stud tackles have hurt each team. Still, the Dolphins defense is horrendous, and Justin Herbert will have at least Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen out there, and probably Quentin Johnston, despite three limited practices with a hamstring injury. Even with one of the league’s worst pass block win rates, I like Herbert’s chances of quickly and efficient moving the ball down the field against a Dolphins defense that is dead last in success rate. The Dolphins also have a terrible run defense, so while I’m not excited to play either Hassan Haskins or Kimani Vidal, either is a viable fill-in this week.

For the Dolphins offense, they get a tough matchup vs an elite Chargers passing defense. The Chargers are particularly good in defending quick, short passes, which is obviously where Tua Tagovailoa and company usually try to attack. I’d downgrade Jaylen Waddle and Darren Waller this week, despite their strong recent performances. I’m not downgrading De’von Achane, whose unique role and skillset might be a boon if Waller and Waddle aren’t open. The Chargers have also been weaker against the run, and Achane’s home-run ability keeps him live for a big week at any moment.

Titans at Raiders

• Market’s prediction: Raiders close win

• My prediction: Raiders close win

• OL advantage: None

• DL advantage: None

I’m treating this as a battle of two bad teams that have been both been unlucky this year. For the Raiders, I expect a strong dose of Ashton Jeanty this week, as the Titans are given up explosive rushes at one of the highest rates in the league. After Geno Smith’s meltdown last week and the continued absence of Brock Bowers, this seems like an ideal spot to get your star rookie running back going.

For the Titans, they are starting to look reasonable on a down-to-down basis, but are still among the worst at failing to deliver big plays, and at giving them up. Consistency will be the focus for Cam Ward and company going forward. Facing the Raiders strong run defense, it’ll be interesting to see if the Titans are willing to put the ball in Ward’s hands early and often, especially now that Calvin Ridley has finally gotten going. Their low PROE thus far suggests no, but big plays should be available vs this porous Raiders pass defense if they choose to attack there.

Browns at Steelers

• Market’s prediction: Steelers close win

• My prediction: Browns close win

• OL advantage: None

• DL advantage: Steelers pass rush, Browns pass rush

With a 38.5 point total, this game is probably the least fantasy-friendly on the week. Additionally, each team has a pass rushing advantage and negative PROE so far, so the early down rushing attempts should be plentiful. For the Steelers, they’ve been a good rushing team so far, and have one of the few offensive lines in the league capable of matching up decently well vs this vaunted Browns front four in the run game. I like Jaylen Warren more than consensus this week. When passing, big plays are often available against this Browns pass defense, which is only average overall. The issue is that you have to survive the initial pass rush, which is easily the best in the league so far. Given the Steelers have one of the worst pass blocking offensive lines, it’s hard to see that path to success this week.

For the Browns offense, I expect another week with Quinshon Judkins as the centerpiece, despite the Steelers’ run defense being better than its pass defense. Dillon Gabriel played reasonably last week in a tough matchup vs Brian Flores and the Vikings, and targeting his tight ends at nearly a 50% rate higher than Joe Flacco. When passing, those short attempts are likely to be the Browns preferred style of attack, given the Steelers strong pass rushing unit. I like David Njoku and Harold Fannin as low-end TE1 options, and Jerry Jeudy remains a volume-based WR3.

Clear Favorites (-7 or more)

Bengals at Packers

• Market’s prediction: Packers dominate

• My prediction: Packers dominate

• OL advantage: Packers pass blocking

• DL advantage: Packers (slight edges in run and pass)

The Packers have easily the highest team total on the week and looked poised for a fantasy explosion, as the Bengals defense is among the worst in the league. So far, the Packers have a slight lean to the run, and vs a bad Bengals run defense, Josh Jacobs should have room to run. He’s an RB1. When passing, Jordan Love has been one of the most aggressive passers in the league, and the Bengals are often happy to oblige, as their pass defense is also terrible. The Bengals have been particularly vulnerable to tight ends, elevating Tucker Kraft to mid/high TE1 this week. Romeo Doubs, Matthew Golden, and to a lesser extent, Dontayvion Wicks are in play as viable fill-in options.

For the Bengals, the Joe Flacco era starts now. I’m not sure that’s a good thing, given the Browns had one of the worst passing attacks in the league under his leadership. Still, it’s clear that the Jake Browning EPA/play hype from a few years ago was (predictably) stupid, and it’s at least plausible that Flacco can simply deliver catchable passes to Ja’marr Chase and Tee Higgins at a reasonable rate. I’m treating this as a slight uptick for fantasy, but given the Bengals horrendous offensive line, I don’t expect much real life success.

Cardinals at Colts

• Market’s prediction: Colts strong win

• My prediction: Colts dominate

• OL advantage: Cardinals (pass blocking)

• DL advantage: None

After their shellacking of the Raiders, the Colts simply look like one of the NFL’s best teams, with an offense that came dominate via the run or the pass. With an average PROE, the Colts will use Jonathan Taylor to test the Cardinals early. However, the Cardinals have a strong run defense, and forcing Daniel Jones to beat you via straight dropback passing is probably still your best chance vs the Colts. But even that is a tough task, as Josh Downs, Tyler Warren, and Michael Pittman await, along with the potential return of deep threat Alec Pierce. The Cardinals have also been vulnerable to short, quick passes, which is obviously the Colts strength, so I like the chances of a solid day for the Colts passing game here.

For the Cardinals offense, they face a Colts defense that is mediocre overall, but effective at limiting big plays. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, they are poor from a success rate standpoint, relying on big plays to move the ball. Kyler Murray and Trey McBride are a unique combination, but with Murray nursing a foot injury, this is a tough matchup. On the ground, Michael Carter should see some success given the Colts bad defensive success rate, but gamescript is a concern given Carter’s likely limited receiving role. He’s a fringe RB2/3.

Rams at Ravens

• Market’s prediction: Rams strong win

• My prediction: Rams dominate

• OL advantage: Rams (pass blocking)

• DL advantage: Rams (run defense)

Despite the Rams recent struggles, they look like a wagon of a team, with average or better metrics almost across the board. Facing a Ravens defense that has been among the worst in the league, this is an explosion spot for the Rams, even with some returning starters for the Ravens and impending weather concerns. Puka Nacua and Davante Adams remain locked in to elite roles, while Kyren Williams has apparently fended off Blake Corum for now and is a low-end RB1 this week.

For the Ravens, I expect we’ll see a heavy dose of Derrick Henry, given Cooper Rush is back at quarterback. The Rams have been slightly below average vs the run, but with Lamar Jackson out, the entire defensive gameplan will likely center on stopping Henry. Zay Flowers was able to salvage his week with a late explosive play, but he’s likely set for another tough volume week, even before considering a shoulder injury that limited him all week in practice.

Broncos vs Jets (London)

• Market’s prediction: Broncos strong win

• My prediction: Broncos close win

• OL advantage: Broncos (pass blocking), Jets (run blocking)

• DL advantage: Broncos (pass rush)

Broncos-Jets is a sneaky interesting matchup, as the Jets actually have a run blocking advantage vs a strong Broncos defense. With one of the heaviest-rushing attacks in the league, the Jets are almost certain to lean into that edge, and should find some success. The Broncos also play man coverage at a high rate, which Justin Fields is far better against due to his ability to scramble. Put simply, I like the Jets chances of having a rebound week on offense, particularly given the Broncos are coming off an emotional win over the defending champs and flying to London.

Luckily for the Broncos, they do face a porous Jets defense that is dead last in dropback EPA. That’s good news for Bo Nix and company, as Sean Payton has remained dedicated to the pass, even when they’ve had more success on the ground. Courtland Sutton is a solid WR2 this week, while Troy Franklin is a viable starter. On the ground, the Jets are an average unit, so J.K. Dobbins remains an RB2.

Toss-up Games (-3 to +3)

Lions at Chiefs

• Market’s prediction: Chiefs close win

• My prediction: Lions close win

• OL advantage: None

• DL advantage: None

With a 53 point total, this looks like one of the best and most exciting games of the year. The 2-3 Chiefs are favored, but the spread at less than the 3, it’s close to a coin flip. On offense, I expect the Chiefs to come out throwing, as they’ve done all year. The Lions have a quality defense, but with Xavier Worthy back in the lineup, I’m betting on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs finding success. As usual, I’d look to avoid starting any of the Chiefs running backs this year, given the tough matchup, but with a 27.5 point total, chances are good one of them falls into the end zone.

As for the Lions offense, they face a Chiefs defense that is above average vs the pass, and bad against the run. That fits well with the Lions approach, and I expect a heavy dose of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery early. When the Lions do pass, they’ve been among the most efficient units in the league, and should find success here even despite the tough matchup. This should be a heck of a game, and a potential Super Bowl preview.

Cowboys at Panthers

• Market’s prediction: Cowboys close win

• My prediction: Cowboys strong win

• OL advantage: Cowboys (pass and run), Panthers (run blocking)

• DL advantage: None

With a 26.25 total, the Cowboys are again poised for another strong performance. Despite the absences of CeeDee Lamb and multiple starters on the offensive line, Dak Prescott and company are one of the best offenses in the league thus far. Dak should have plenty of time to throw this week, increasing the chances of another strong game for George Pickens. Jake Ferguson is seeing overall TE1 volume in recent weeks, and with Lamb out, is a high-end TE1 again. Javonte Williams has been great so far, consistently finding successful runs and breaking tackles like it’s 2021. With Miles Sanders out for the year, it’s at least plausible he sees even greater usage vs this bad Panthers run front, while the Cowboys spin Jaydon Blue up.

For the Panthers, they face a bend-don’t-break Cowboys defense that is decent when executing the gameplan. Unfortunately for Dallas, they fail to execute the gameplan often, allowing explosive rushes and big passing plays. Rico Dowdle is in a strong spot for a revenge game, while Bryce Young and Tetairoa McMillan should find more success than in an average week. There’s the makings of a shootout here — especially if the Panthers score early.

Seahawks at Jaguars

• Market’s prediction: Coin Flip

• My prediction: Seahawks close win

• OL advantage: Seahawks (run blocking)

• DL advantage: None

This is a coin flip of a game, but one with a clear gameplan for the Jaguars. With a 5.3 PROE, the Jags want to pass, and they get a banged up Seattle defense that has struggled vs the pass. It’s a clear setup for Brian Thomas, Travis Hunter, and Trevor Lawrence to deliver on the preseason hype. I like their chances of finding success and would look to buy low on Thomas and Hunter if possible. When rushing, the Jaguars are a solid unit, but the Seahawks have a solid run defense. Travis Etienne remains in play as a volume-based RB2, and as always, has the speed to hit on a long touchdown.

As for the Seahawks, they face a Jacksonville defense that is prevents consistent rushing success and deep passing plays, but gives up explosive rushes and short passes. It’s a weird pairing so far, and one I’m not sure what to make of. However, it does align well with Kenneth Walker’s style, as he is perfectly willing to lose yards on multiple attempts if he can break a couple long explosive runs. Via the passing game, it remains the Jaxon Smith-Njigba show, and he’s a WR1 in any matchup until proven otherwise. I also like Cooper Kupp’s chances of delivering a solid volume game, based on the Jags weak defensive success rate and my expectation that the Jags find passing game success. I like this game’s chances of being fun and high-scoring, barring too many bonehead moves from Sam Darnold and Lawrence.

49ers at Buccaneers

• Market’s prediction: Bucs close win

• My prediction: Bucs close win

• OL advantage: Bucs (run blocking)

• DL advantage: None

The injured Bucs face an injured 49ers defense that is starting to show some cracks. However, unlike the 49ers, the Bucs still have their starting quarterback which why their favored in this game. As usual, I expect the Bucs to primarily attack via the air, with Emeka Egbuka installed as the top target. He’s a WR2. The secondary Bucs options are also interesting, as Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are out. We saw Cade Otton deliver strong performances last year in these situations, and Sterling Shepard remains a savvy vet that gets open. Both are viable starters. As for the running game, the Bucs do have a strong matchup here, but have struggled on the ground and are without Bucky Irving again. Rachaad White remains a volume-based RB2.

As for the 49ers, they face a Bucs defense that is elite against the run and bad against the pass. That’s fine for the modern Kyle Shanahan offense, which has a 3.8 PROE. With Mac Jones under center again, I expect another week filled with short passes to Christian McCaffrey, Kendrick Bourne, and possibly, Jajuan Jennings.

Pace

Fast Pace Matchups

1. Saints-Patriots: Combined neutral pace = 52.6 seconds

2. Packers-Bengals: 54 seconds

3. Cowboys-Panthers: 54.8 seconds

Slow Pace Matchups

1. Titans-Raiders: 60.5 seconds

2. Bills-Falcons: 60.4 seconds

3. Chiefs-Lions: 60.3 seconds

Pass Rate Over Expectation

High PROE Matchups

1. Chargers-Dolphins: Combined PROE = 10

2. Colts-Cardinals: 8.5

3. Chiefs-Lions: 8.1

Low PROE Matchups

1. Bills-Falcons: Combined PROE: -4.4

2. Titans-Raiders: -3.6

3. Steelers-Browns: -2.5

OL/DL Mismatches

Pass rush

• Browns

• Steelers

• Packers

• Broncos

Run defense

• Patriots

• Packers

• Rams

Pass blocking

• Bills

• Commanders

• Packers

• Cardinals

• Rams

• Broncos

• Cowboys

Run blocking

• Patriots

• Cowboys

• Jets

• Bucs

• Seahawks

Pick Tracking

New this year, I’m also picking each game and assigning confidence levels to it, as I’m in a pool of 50 people or so. My general strategy is to mostly follow chalk early, but winners are paid out each week, so there is some incentive for picking some upsets or adjusting confidence to actually have some takes, vice just following the spread.

Season Results: 53-24, 471 points (max 649) - 73% conversion rate (3rd in pool)

• Weeks 1-4: 47-18, 428 points (max 544) - 79% conversion rate

• Week Five: 6-6, 43 points (max 105) - 41% conversion rate

For week six¹, my biggest stands vs the market are:

1. Jets over Broncos (big underdog)

2. Browns over Steelers (underdog)

3. Seahawks over Jaguars (extra confidence)

Week Six Picks (1 = least confident, 16 = most confident)

1. Browns over Steelers

2. Chiefs over Lions

3. Jets over Broncos

4. Bucs over 49ers

5. Patriots over Saints

6. Raiders over Titans

7. Chargers over Dolphins

8. Seahawks over Jaguars

9. Cowboys over Panthers

10. Commanders over Bears

11. Colts over Cardinals

12. Eagles over Giants

13. Bills over Falcons

14. Rams over Ravens

15. Packers over Bengals

That’s it for the week five edition of Metrics and Matchups. See you all for my Final Thoughts on Sunday morning!

1. Due to the Eagles losing to the Giants as my 12 confidence, I’m being a little more aggressive with my underdog picks elsewhere this week.