Final Thoughts: Week 5

Final Thoughts reviews Thursday Night Football, covers the latest injury and weather news, analyzes difficult start/sit decisions, and usually talks through some DFS considerations.

Thursday Night Football

Simply put, kudos to Kyle Shanahan, who again showed why he’s simply one of the best offensive coaches in the league. To recap, Shanahan was down his QB1, TE1, WR1, WR2, and WR3, and still found a way to scheme his way to 23 points and a win over a strong divisional rival. His ability to do that is part of what keeps the 49ers so productive for fantasy, and if/when they are finally healthy, are probably among the NFC contenders. Christian MCCaffrey’s rushing efficiency remains a concern, but when he’s catching this many passes, it matters essentially zero.

As for the Rams, we should continue to love the concentration of the offense, while acknowledge the limits it places on them. McVay teams often seemingly struggle to adapt, and the concentration of the often probably doesn’t help that. That said, Puka Nacua and company are often so good that it doesn’t matter, but it does make me wonder what the true ceiling of this Rams team is.

As for the recommendations going forward, it’s very difficult given the injury situation to have a strong stance. I want to be in on the 49ers, but if Brock Purdy’s toe injury does linger all year, it probably places a cap on the ceiling of the offense. For the Rams, we should obviously buy Nacua and Davante Adams, but who is selling? Blake Corum hasn’t done much with occasional spikes in workload, so I expect to see Kyren Williams maintain the roughly 2/3 split they’ve had so far.

Recommendations

• Buy: Nacua, Adams, Kittle

• Hold: Purdy, CMC, Pearsall, Jennings, Kyren, Stafford, Corum

• Sell: Aiyuk (if any injury optimism remains, sell it)

Sunday Football

Injury Considerations

QBs:

• Lamar Jackson - out

RBs:

• Bucky Irving - out

• Chuba Hubbard - out

• Tyrone Tracy - doubtful (10% to play)

WRs:

• Terry McLaurin - out

• Mike Evans - out

TEs:

• Brock Bowers - questionable (15% to play)

• Juwan Johnson - questionable (60% to play) - but Taysom and Moreau likely to active. I now prefer swapping off Johnson to Fannin, Waller, or Mason Taylor.

Weather Considerations

As you might have guessed, I am not a meteorologist. However, there are some occasions where weather impacts my start/sit decisions, or DFS considerations. My process for accounting for this to usually look at Kevin Roth’s analysis here, and via NFLweather.com, before breaking it down into a watch vs warning methodology to get a quick handle on it.

Weather Watch - monitoring, but no knock to projection

• Vikings vs Browns (London game) - 15mph wind

• Chiefs at Jaguars - 25% chance of thunderstorms, 7-10mph wind

Weather Warning - small knock to projection

• N/A

My Start/Sit Decisions

In this section, I’ll provide the tougher start/sit decisions I’m making, and why I’m doing it. I’ll also keep a running count on these over the course of the year. My goal for these start/sit decisions is to be 50% or better, as most of these are coinflips (or worse) in projections.

Season Tracker: 10 correct, 8 neutral, 3 wrong - 77%

• Week 1: 50% - 1 correct, 2 neutral, 1 wrong

• Week 2: 100% - 4 correct, 1 neutral, 0 wrong

• Week 3: 75% - 3 correct, 3 neutral, 1 wrong

• Week 4: 67% - 2 correct, 2 neutral, 1 wrong

Week 5 Start/Sits

T.J. Hockenson > Harold Fannin

Another week of spinning this wheel, and I’m going to stick with Hockenson, based on the expected gamescripts I outlined in Metrics and Matchups. The Browns run defense is extremely good, and I expect KOC’s gameplan to focus on attacking through the air. On the other side of the ball, the Browns will very likely attempt to establish Quinshon Judkins early and hide rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel as much as possible vs this elite Vikings pass defense.

Tetairoa McMillan > Tee Higgins and Zay Flowers

The projections are with McMillan, with the Panthers in a potential smash spot vs a bad Dolphins defense. I like Higgins’ chances of performing better than the last two weeks, but on this team, I don’t need to go there yet. Flowers is in a tough spot, and is likely to get squeezed from three sides, as the loss of Lamar Jackson will increase rush attempts, the Texans strong pass/weak run defense probably leads to a Derrick Henry-centric gameplan, and the return of Isiah Likely adds target competition.

J.K. Dobbins > Jordan Mason

Another week for this decision, and arguably the toughest yet. By spread alone, we should prefer Mason as a 3.5 point favorite, compared to Dobbins as a 3.5 point underdog. However, Mason faces a tough Browns run defense, while the Eagles are much more vulnerable on the ground than the air. The implied totals are actually the same for each team (19.75), so I’m going to go against the projections here (14 vs 13 in this league), and ride with Dobbins this week.

Xavier Worthy > J.K. Dobbins

While I like Dobbins more than Mason, Worthy’s usage was bullish last week, and the Chiefs are almost certain to be among the pass-heaviest teams each week, including this one. Worthy has the role we dreamed of this summer, seeing lots of short opportunities coupled with occasional deep shots. He’s a solid WR2 and will have massive spike week upside in this role.

Ladd McConkey > Devonta Smith

Two big underperformers so far, but Ladd has at least seen solid volume, and likely has the higher floor and median this week. It’s a sneaky spot for Smith, in a matchup that could lead to more passing than people expect, and he’s an interesting contrarian play on Draftkings, where he’s priced at only $5k. However, on a team that’s projected to win, I want to opt with the more locked-in volume for Ladd.

Josh Downs > Darius Slayton

Despite Slayton stepping into added volume with the loss of Malik Nabers, I expect the Giants to lean into the run this week vs the Saints. Meanwhile, I like the Raiders strong run defense’ chances of forcing the Colts to throw more, which should lead to more targets for Downs. With Michael Pittman limited earlier this week with a hamstring injury, and Adonai Mitchell likely to lose some snaps, Downs’ target competition could be at a season-low level, in a game where the Colts have a 27 point total.

DFS Decisions