The Sketch: Week 15

Bills-Lions: A Clash of Titans

This will probably be the last The Sketch of the year, as like many of you, I’ll be spending time with family and friends over the next two weeks. As the fantasy season comes to a close, I wanted to thank all of you for reading this year. Reducing Uncertainty has grown by a lot this year, including the first-ever paid subscribers. For the paid subscribers, I’d like to share that most of that money went to a donation to the Living For Zachary foundation, which helps to prevent sudden cardiac arrest in youth athletes. So, a big thank you to you for supporting Reducing Uncertainty and for making this donation possible.

Going forward, I’ll be back to my more intermittent Reducing Uncertainty publishing timelines, where I write on a more free-form basis. I expect most of that will remain football-focused through February (as playoff best ball and the FFPC’s playoff challenge are on my mind), and I do enjoy diving into end-of-season review analysis. That said, I have a list of non-football topics I’ve been wanting to think through and write about, so expect to see that in March or so, before best ball summer ramps back up. Again, thanks for reading this year, and without further ado, here’s The Week 15 Sketch.

Week 15 Data

This chart is intended to be a one-stop shop for each matchup that details a bunch of key factors to the game, including O/U, team implied points, pace, team pass/rush rates, each teams offensive/defensive efficiency, and the strength of each teams offensive/defensive lines.¹ Below the chart, I’ll analyze a few key points that stand out.

Game Environment

Each week, this section will include analysis on each team’s projected points, pace, and matchup for their upcoming game.

Totals

Each week, I break matchups down into Slight Favorites, Clear Favorites, and Toss-up games, as those teams (that also have high O/Us) are who we want to target most.²

Slight Favorites (-3.5 to -6.5)

The Bengals lead the slight favorites this week, with a 26 point total and an above average O/U, as they face the Titans. Cincy has been one of the better fantasy offenses of the year, with a concentrated approach and bad defense driving shootouts. The Titans have a solid defense, but it’s better against the run than the pass, which isn’t ideal for slowing this elite Bengals passing attack. Burrow and company should move the ball effectively, and Ja’marr Chase is always capable of breaking a long touchdown. On the opposite side of the ball, ff the Titans can keep the game close, the Titans will probably look to establish the run. The Bengals run defense is among the worst in the league, while the Titans passing attack has struggled with consistency and turnovers all year. However, if Cincy gets a lead, the Titans will likely have to shift to the pass.

The Cardinals are up next, with a 26.5 team total as they face Drake Maye and the Patriots. Arizona has quietly turned into one of the better offenses in the league, and they’re capable of success on the ground or via the air. The Patriots defense has been bad overall, but is more vulnerable through the air, and I expect Kyler and company to start their attack there. As Trey McBride is on roughly 30% of my advancing best ball teams, I’d appreciate the Cardinals funneling the offense through him, and ensuring he catches his first receiving touchdown of the season. On the other side of the ball, the Cardinals are more vulnerable against the run, so I’d expect the Patriots to attempt to establish the ground game. However, the Cardinals pass defense has struggled in success rate, while Maye and Brissett have actually combined for a solid passing success rate. I like Maye to find more consistency this week, and given his mobile and deep-throwing play style, a ceiling outcome is always plausible.

The Eagles are third of the main slate slight favorites, as they face a solid Steelers team. These two teams are eerily similar, as they are built on strong defenses and offensive lines, and explosive but inconsistent passing attacks. However, there is one major difference. Saquon Barkley vs Najee Harris. Despite the exact same run block win rate (73%), the Eagles rank first in rush EPA and third in rush success rate. The Steelers rank below average in each. In this matchup, we should expect to see a heavy dose of Saquon, as the Eagles are six point favorites and the Steelers defense is much better against the pass than the run. On the opposite side of the ball, the Eagles defense is well-rounded, and the absence of George Pickens looms large for the Steelers passing attack. We never want to count out a Mike Tomlin team, but I like the Eagles, and Saquon’s chances, of rolling this week.

Two AFC West teams, the Chiefs and Broncos round out the slight favorites. The Chiefs have a 23 point total, but face a Browns attack that isn’t afraid to pass often and play fast. While the both the Browns and Chiefs defenses are solid units, there are some easily foreseen paths to a shootout here.

For the Broncos, they face a Colts team in a matchup with massive playoff implications. If the Broncos win, they have an about 90% chance to make the playoffs. Lose and their chances drop to 40%. For the Colts, it’s 60% with a win and 10% with a loss. As for the specifics of the game, it looks to be a defensive showdown. The Colts offense has struggled across the board, while the Broncos defense is one of best units in the league. The Colts have improved their defense throughout the year, especially against the run, though they remain vulnerable to big plays. The Broncos passing offense has not been good, but Bo Nix has demonstrated an ability to buy time and create big play opportunities down the field, even if he often misses them. Still, those opportunities should be there this week, and Nix will likely only need to convert a few of them for the Broncos to have the edge.

Clear Favorites (-7 or more)

As usual, we see the Ravens atop the clear favorites list, as they are whopping 16.5 favorites over the Giants. There’s no secret to this one, as we should expect the Ravens to pound Derrick Henry against a Giants defense that is equally below average vs the run and the pass. If Lamar and the passing company do have a ceiling performance, it’s likely to come via touchdowns rather than volume. That’s Mark Andrews music, who has maintained an elite red zone role and per route metrics this year despite less volume. If Henry is chalk in DFS, I’m open to taking some chances on Andrews or even a Lamar-Andrews stack hitting for two touchdowns this week.

The Commanders are next, with a solid 26.25 total as 8 point favorites vs the Saints. Washington has a massive offensive line advantage, and I’m not sure how the Saints are going to slow down their rushing attack. In the passing game, the Saints have continued to be a solid pass defense despite their weak defensive line. Overall, I veiw the Commanders similarly to the Ravens, where their success is most likely to come on the ground, but with strong upside for the passing game as well. Pairing Brian Robinson with the Ravens passing game (and vice versa Derrick Henry with the Commanders passing game) is interesting for DFS.

The Vikings close out the clear favorites, and despite not being on the main slate, I want to write about, as it’s time to give Sam Darnold his flowers. Darnold finally hit a true ceiling game last week, lighting up a Falcons team that was simply overwhelmed. Darnold and company now rank 4th in dropback success rate and 7th in EPA. Pairing that with an elite Vikings defense makes for a strong team that probably isn’t getting the respect they deserve, and as a Vikings fan, I’m simply daring to believe in postseason success again. What could go wrong.

Toss-up Games (-3 to +3)

It’s a strong week for toss-up teams, with a potential game of the year candidate and Super Bowl preview leading the way. The Lions host the Bills as 2.5 favorites and an implied team total of 28.5 points, second best on the week. As a Vikings fan, it’s been incredibly annoying to see the Lions simply refuse to lose close games, and with a Bills team that seemingly has lost every big game for the last few years, I’m not particularly hopeful here. Still, the spread is tight, and the Bills do have some advantages, particularly in the trenches. The Lions have struggled to replace Aidan Hutchinson and now have a below average pass rush facing a solid Bills offensive line, meaning Josh Allen should have time to throw. On the opposite side, the Bills are effective vs the run and funnel passing attempts short. While that does fit with Jared Goff’s play style and Amon Ra St. Brown’s elite skillset, I like the Bills probable gameplan of making Goff beat them slowly and consistently down the field. Overall, this is easily the highest ceiling game of the week, but a challenge to play in DFS due to how expensive the primary pieces are. I expect that to keep ownership down, and very much want to find a way to play it.

The Chargers and Texans are the two other main slate toss-ups worth writing about this week. The Chargers face the Bucs, in what will likely be one of the slowest-paced games of the year. Still, there’s some upside here, as Justin Herbert gets a struggling Bucs pass defense, and the Bucs strong and well-rounded attack faces a similarly strong and well-rounded Chargers defense. While volume may be limited, there are scenarios where explosive plays created by Herbert, Mike Evans, and Bucky Irving lead to a fun fantasy game.

The Texans face the Dolphins in a game that probably has higher upside than what the underlying metrics show. The Texans have ramped their PROE to elite levels since Nico Collins’ return, while Tua Tagovailoa has been one of the best QBs in the league since his return. While the Texans have a strong defense, and the Dolphins limit big plays, each offense looks to be rounding into form (arguably too late for it to matter). For DFS, I’m interested in the ownership here, as it makes for a very fun contrarian game stack, but a bad chalk one.

Pace

Fast Pace Matchups

1. Colts-Broncos: Combined neutral pace = 54.1 seconds

2. Jets-Jags: 55.9 seconds

3. Ravens-Giants: 56.3 seconds

Slow Pace Matchups

1. Bucs-Chargers: 60.4 seconds

2. Texans-Dolphins: 59.6 seconds

3. Eagles-Steelers: 58.3 seconds

OL/DL

DL Mismatches

• Jets run defense vs Jags run blocking

• Commanders pass rush vs Saints pass blocking

• Broncos pass rush vs Colts pass blocking

• Packers run defense vs Seahawks run blocking

• Vikings run defense vs Bears run blocking

OL Mismatches

• Cowboys run blocking vs Panthers run defense

• Panthers run blocking vs Cowboys run defense

• Commanders OL vs Saints DL

• Broncos OL vs Colts DL

• Bills pass blocking vs Lions pass rush

DFS Plan of Attack