Adjusting for Home Leagues

When possible, chase perfection

Quick Summary:

• When possible, chase perfection.

• In home leagues this year (using Yahoo ADP), the market allows us to chase early RB legendary upside, with multiple late single-digit round WR targets.

• Elite TE is a chasing perfection move, but be careful. I’d prioritize a legendary RB and the necessary WR firepower ahead of it in home leagues this year.

• Don’t draft players you don’t see yourself starting. Leave the better in best ball guys in best ball.

Football Season is Here

As much fun as drafting all summer is, the arrival of football season and fall weather is one of the greatest feelings each year. And it’s almost that time. Preseason football and the news that comes along with it is in full swing. I’m reading through every Nathan Jahnke recap to learn who played with the starters, who was the odd man out in 2-WR sets, and to figure out if my favorite round rookies have a chance at actually contributing early in the season. As best ball season winds down, our favorite grind has begun.

However, before we get deep into the grind of waiver adds, free agent bids, and numerous trade offers from that one guy in your league (I am usually that guy), we get one of the best moments of the year. Home League Draft Day. For me, I have two leagues that have been running for nearly/over 20 years, mostly filled with the same people. Flying back home to draft with them is one of my favorite times of the year, and in the days before, I often have trouble falling asleep because I’m so excited.

Christmas in August indeed.

On the flight there, I sit down and come up with a draft day plan specific for that league. Each of my main two home leagues is a unique format, with one awarding more points than you can possibly imagine to quarterbacks and defenses, while the other is an auction + keeper format filled with cutthroat drafters who often like almost all of the same players. While I haven’t done that league-specific work on the flight yet, there are some macro adjustments we should make from the Underdog best ball environment to our home leagues, which is the topic of this piece.

So, without further ado, let’s dive in to home league adjustments.

Adjustment #1 - Hero RB is both more viable and stronger

A few weeks ago, I was discussing how I’d adjust from Underdog to Draftkings in best ball to a buddy of mine who was just starting to draft. He mentioned how much later the WRs go on DK, and how he would often feel like his WR option was better than the RB at every pick. Naturally, our discussion turned to where the best spot to select an RB is. And in response, my advice was relatively simple.

Just take CMC, Breece, and Bijan at 1.01-1.03.

While I’m usually prioritizing WR firepower early in drafts, I do think that these three are some of the cleanest elite RB options we’ve had in years. CMC is CMC, so assuming he stays healthy, he is very likely to offer all of the benefits of legendary RB season that we so desperately desire.

Breece was also incredible last year, finishing as RB6 in Underdog scoring and RB8 in my weighted rankings (which factors in the advanced metrics), despite playing with arguably the worst QB and OL situations in the league, and scoring barely any points in the red zone. Now, with Aaron Rodgers at QB, an improved offensive line, and the addition of deep threat Mike Williams to lighten the boxes, Breece is poised for an even better 2024, and is one of the few RBs with Legendary Upside.¹

Bijan is not as clean as CMC or Breece, but he was good last year in a horrendous (and horrendously mismanaged) situation, and is one of the best running back prospects in recent years. While his lack of truly elite top-end speed probably reduces his ceiling slightly, the Falcons addition of quarterback Kirk Cousins is one of the most fantasy situation upgrades of 2024. His path to Legendary Upside is clear, even if I think it probably requires more of a Perfect Storm than CMC or Breece.

However, I’ve had trouble aggressively targeting them on Underdog, struggling my way to 6% CMC, 8% Breece, and 6% Bijan exposures. As you can tell from my waxing poetic descriptions above, it’s not because I don’t like any of them or doubt their upside. Instead, my struggles are almost entirely Underdog-market induced, summed up in the following two reasons:

Comparative advantage and Opportunity cost

Comparatively, while CMC/Breece/Bijan have paths to legendary seasons, we’re asking even more of them on Underdog, because the other RBs are priced so cheaply. Even in the scenarios where one of these three posts a legendary season, their advantage over the other running backs is muted, because of how cheaply the other backs are priced.

And regarding opportunity cost, in the scenarios where one of CMC/Breece/Bijan is good but not great (aka a silent killer), they are even worse picks than usual, due to the combination of other cheap RBs and limited late-round WR options.

In effect, the Underdog market has reduced both the viability and the impact of CMC, Breece, and Bijan’s upside simply through the pricing of the running back and wide receiver positions.²

As usual, Rotoviz has a tool to illustrate this. Via the Win The Flex tool, we can see that on Underdog, CMC/Breece/Bijan project to be some of the worst RB picks you can make, regardless of analyzing through projections, equity, or value.

Projections

Equity

Value

Essentially, on Underdog, the market is pushing (arguably Claire Kittle shoving) us to draft WRs early, before capitalizing on the plentiful running back bounties from ~pick 50 to ~pick 100.

However, that entire dynamic flips in the favor of CMC/Breece/Bijan in home leagues.

Home League Kings

Using Yahoo’s ADP (half-PPR just like Underdog), we see that the ADP for RBs is priced way up compared to Underdog, with the average top 32 RB going 12.9 spots higher.

For those RBs with the highest change (red cells above), this reduces their comparative advantage the most, essentially making them much weaker individual picks on Yahoo than on Underdog.

Meanwhile, the blue cells (lowest change) represent the players who’s comparative advantage grows the most, therefore becoming stronger individual picks on Yahoo. And as we can see, each of CMC, Breece, and Bijan are blue cells.

Additionally, the market punishes us less at WR on Yahoo, with the average top 32 WR dropping in ADP by 12.2 spots. However, as we see below, the top WR ADPs are relatively unaffected, with the later WRs becoming stronger individual picks on Yahoo.

Ultimately, the market is making it possible for us to chase perfection.

On Yahoo (and using that as a proxy for home leagues), early RBs are better individual picks than on Underdog. The last few top 32 WRs are also better individual picks on Yahoo than Underdog. By taking advantage of both of those individual dynamics, our teams are stronger overall.

Practically, that leads me to the stance that, if possible, I’m chasing perfection and selecting one of CMC, Breece, and Bijan in the first round of my home league, ahead of any WR.

If that isn’t possible, Gibbs, Taylor, Barkley, and especially Achane (-8 differential in the graph) are very strong round 2/3 RB options that still allow me to take advantage of the last few top 32 WRs depressed ADPs. If that fails, zero RB is still viable, with a few clear targets in Jaylen Warren and Johnathon Brooks, but we probably can prioritize an elite QB or TE before selecting them and one of the last few top 32 WRs. Speaking of the elite TEs…

Adjustment #2 - It’s a banner year for elite TEs in best ball, but they aren’t a priority in home leagues

For long-time readers of my work, you know I think that elite TEs (and tight end playoff spike weeks writ large) are one of the keys to best ball tournaments. This year, we have one of the deepest groups of elite tight ends in recent memory, with seven options by my count. Because there are so many, it increases the probability that we will need a tight end spike week in the best ball playoffs, which disproportionately come from the elite tight ends, and which has been arguably *THE* key to best ball playoff success on Underdog. However, there is one huge shift for home leagues that reduces our need for an elite tight end.

We only play one opponent a week, vice anywhere from 10 - 1,000 in most best ball playoff weeks.

There is roughly a 7% chance that an elite tight end scores 25+ half-ppr points on a given week. Cumulatively, this means that there’s roughly a 50% chance that an elite tight end goes for 25+ in any given week (though again, it’s probably higher this year due to the depth of the elite TEs). Therefore, for best ball tournaments with three straight playoff weeks, each with 10+ opponents, there’s a high probability that someone’s tight end is dropping 25+ points.

In home leagues, this dynamic completely flips. We simply have to beat our one opponent, who’s elite tight end only has a 7% chance of smashing our chances. Therefore, in most weeks, the difference between a tight end like David Njoku and Mark Andrews is going to be relatively small. While Andrews is still the clear favorite to score more, it isn’t likely to be an outcome-altering result. After you factor in the opportunity cost of the two (Andrews, pick 46 on Yahoo, Njoku pick 85), it’s likely that the projected points for the 2v2 is relatively even.

Overall, I still prefer drafting an elite tight end in home leagues, as it allows us to get closer to a perfect roster if we hit on late round sleepers.

However if perfection isn’t possible, I don’t recommend prioritizing it over necessary WR firepower or a chance at a legendary RB season (which is often the case in competitive home leagues like one of mine).

Adjustment # 3 - The “would I ever start this player” test

In best ball, we have to make zero start/sit decisions, allowing us to benefit anytime a random player goes off. In home leagues, we have to choose to start a player. While this seems obvious, it means that volatile players like Gabe Davis, Rashid Shaheed, etc should all be significantly downgraded. While we may tell ourselves we are willing to stomach the volatility of a 25 point week followed by two goose eggs, it is very rare that we can actually stick to that. Even if we do, it’s often an extremely frustrating and psychologically taxing strategy that doesn’t really pay off much anyway. So, before drafting or adding a player off the waiver wire, simply ask yourself, “would I ever start this player?” If the answer is no, or the answer is “maybe as a bye week fill-in”, then do not add that player. Instead, focus on adding a player who could become a clear starter at some point in the season. Practically, this means rostering more backup running backs who are an injury away, at a position where success is much more volume driven than skill (like at WR). Some examples this year include: Zach Charbonnet, Blake Corum, Trey Benson, Ty Chandler, Ray Davis, and Bucky Irving.

Final Thoughts and Two Chasing Perfection Starts

Overall, home leagues usually offer us a wide range of acceptable strategies, especially compared to the tight and narrow landscape of Underdog best ball. While the strategy landscape is wide, my priorities are quite tight, and in most home league formats, go like this:

1. Ensure necessary WR firepower

2. Legendary Upside at RB (if possible)

   1. If not, then zero RB with multiple late round stabs at clear starters

3. Elite TE

4. Elite QB

Putting those priorities into practice, my chasing perfection 10-round start based on Yahoo ADP is usually something like the below, split my top 6 vs bottom 6 pick. While these are players I specifically like, in most cases I would encourage you to focus more on the position being picked there than the specific players.

Finally, in the double digit rounds, I would again encourage you to take shots on players who could become clear starters for you. While it’s awesome when Gabe Davis goes 5-135-2 in best ball, it’s only going to bring sadness when he does that on your bench and follows it up with a 0-0 the next week.

As always, thanks for reading and happy drafting, and enjoy one of the best moments of the year!

1. If I’m being honest, I like Breece the most out of any of these three, especially given the shenanigans going on in 49ers camp, with Aiyuk’s contract drama, CMC’s minor calf strain, and the 49ers offensive line fragility. I’m staying humble and taking my share of CMC, but if I had to take one RB for 2024 to be my guy, it would be Breece.

2. However, there may be a narrow way though. If it’s difficult to advance one of these players, they would probably offer immense weekly upside as a low-owned leverage piece in the playoff weeks. While it’s uncomfortable, this is the primary reason I’ve forced myself to a near-even position on each of them.