Top Lines
Introducing a new article series
Now that football season has wrapped up, I’m ready to share what’s next for Reducing Uncertainty. Subscribers seemed to enjoy my 2024 Reading Recap, with many asking for more “quick review/opinion” articles that list what I read, detail the key concepts of it, and provide a short take on it. In short, many of you asked for a TLDR on articles and books. Given I regularly do just that with my family and friends, that sounded like a great idea to me. So, without further ado, please allow me to introduce a new article series for Reducing Uncertainty, titled “Top Lines”
Top Lines
My intention for Top Lines is to help you learn more about topics you don’t have the time to research or read about yourself.1 The series will cover an array of topics, pulled from a wide variety of articles and Substacks. There will certainly be some reoccurring themes based on my usual interests (sports, energy, the economy), but I promise it will be a wide spectrum of topics and takes. However, the format will be simple and consistent, as I want to ensure Top Lines enables you to learn quickly and efficiently.
The Top Lines format will consist of the following three sections and publish every week or two:
What I’m Writing
What I’m Thinking About (essentially one paragraph versions of articles I probably won’t have the time to write)
What I’m Reading (with short summaries/takes)
The Reading section will be split into a few sub-sections. Given there will almost always be some sports, energy, and basic economics articles to review, each of those will have its own section. There will then be a fourth section with all of the other reviews, and a fifth with an update on the books I’m reading.
So, with the goal and format established, please enjoy the first Top Lines of 2025. As always, thanks for reading!
What I’m Writing
Updating Our Priors on Patrick Mahomes — target publication 22 Feb
Big Board Gameplan — target publication 28 Feb
Reviewing the Macro Best Ball Environment — TBD publication date
What I’m Thinking About
My wealth. This quick quiz/self-assessment from Sahil Bloom’s new book the 5 Types of Wealth is something that I discussed with family and friends recently. It made for a good check-in with myself to evaluate how I was doing with my Time, Social, Mental, Physical, and Financial Wealth.
AI. As you can probably tell from the What I’m Reading section below, learning more about AI has been at the forefront of my mind. I’m starting mostly from scratch, but am making a concentrated effort to read a diverse set of experts on the topic, especially when they disagree with each other. If I feel confident in my baseline understanding, I might write up a basic understanding article designed to help those of us who haven’t really been paying attention to it. If you’re interested in that, or have experts/articles to share with me that could help me learn, please share those!
Patrick Mahomes. Previewing my next article a bit… I’ve been a long-time skeptic/hater of the market’s perception of Mahomes, as it failed to properly value his strong supporting cast. But after a down year and a Super Bowl performance that was arguably the worst game of his career, early Underdog ADP doesn’t price him as an elite QB anymore. Is it time to be back in on Mahomes?
What I’m Reading
Energy
How much energy does desalinisation use? Is it “absurdly cheap”?
Key Quote: To me, the main message of this chart is not that desalinization is incredibly energy-intensive. It’s that many people in the world still live in dire energy poverty.
My Takeaway: Generating the average amount of daily water an American household uses would be akin to adding an extra 1.5 refrigerators to the household. That’s less water for other countries, but a higher increase in the additional energy demand. TLDR - Desalinization is still too expensive and/or too adds too much energy demand for the vast majority of the world. If we can increase the efficiency of it (to approaching 1kwh), it likely begins to make some sense for wealthy countries.
No, renewables don't need expensive backup power on today's grids
Key Quote: When renewables enter the picture, the existing fossil fuel generator fleet shifts from following total load to following net load. This transition actually improves grid economics by reducing the usage of the most expensive power plants. The result? Lower operating costs — without any need for new backup infrastructure.
My Takeaway: Renewable energy reduces the need for the least efficient fossil fuels, doesn’t increase energy prices (used ERCOT as an example), and protects consumers from energy price volatility. Even given some valid concerns of complex/dirty supply chains and renewables acting as more of a supplement vice an energy replacement, there’s probably lots of benefits of renewable energy to come in the near future.
Do US states with more renewable energy have more expensive electricity?
Key Quote: As a warning: if you’re expecting to see a clear correlation — that all states with lots of [solar / wind / nuclear / gas] have much [cheaper / more expensive] electricity — then I’m afraid you’ll be disappointed.
My Takeaway: There a slew of factors that play into energy pricing, and energy type by itself simply does not dictate cost. However, given the takeaway from the article just above, I’d guess that the development of renewables are probably reducing the cost of energy in most cases (by phasing out the least efficient sources of other energy).
Economy
How Will the Trump Tariffs Affect Construction?
Key Quote: Of the 55 import categories I looked at, 32 of them (~60%) had an import index of 20% or higher. If instead we weigh the total value of imports, that fraction rises to 85%.
My takeaway: From the article and the below chart, it seems like the items with the highest import rate will suffer the largest price increase due to the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum. As Brian alludes to, there is probably significant nuance on how each item is affected based on the unique details of its supply chain, making it challenging to know the exact impacts for each item.
Sports
So When Are We Allowed to Ask the Patrick Mahomes Question?
Key Quote: Mahomes averaged 7.0 yards per pass, the worst of his career. He averaged 261.4 passing yards per game, the worst of his career. He threw a touchdown on 4.5 percent of his passes, the lowest of his career. He threw an interception on 2.3 percent of his passes, the highest of his career. His passer rating was 92.6, the worst of his career. He was sacked on 4.33 percent of his dropbacks, the most of his career.
My Takeaway: We were almost certainly too quick to anoint Mahomes as the next GOAT, as he ranks 11th in EPA play, 9th in success rate, and 8th in QBR over the last two seasons. We’ve also consistently undervalued his overall supporting cast, as the Chiefs had the league’s best offensive line in 2023 and a top five unit in 2024, and the 7th best defense in EPA/play over the last two seasons. In short, Mahomes, like all QBs, is considerably affected by the quality of his receiving options, which have been significantly worse over the last two seasons than in years past. In 2024, his “best” weapon was Deandre Hopkins, who ranked 17th in receiver rating out of all Chiefs’ weapons in the Mahomes era.
Other Topics
Three Observations - Sam Altman
Key Quote: Anyone in 2035 should be able to marshall the intellectual capacity equivalent to everyone in 2025; everyone should have access to unlimited genius to direct however they can imagine.
My Takeaway: A lot of big ideas and claims in this short article from one of the leading drivers of AI development. The quote above seemingly indicates that Altman thinks AI will dramatically alter the landscape of the word (unevenly) within a decade. If you aren’t learning and following some of the basics now, that’s a mistake. Go download the free version of Chat GPT or another of these tools and learn a bit about how they work.
The EU AI Act is Coming to America
Key Quote: So, for these new algorithmic discrimination bills, advocates are pushing for more expansive definitions of “substantial factor” and “consequential decision… Reasonable people can argue about this, but I believe the compliance costs of these laws are high enough that they do not justify the modest benefits the laws might deliver.
My Takeaway: I’ve only really started to dive into AI policy in the last few months, so I’m not anywhere near qualified to have a strong take on AI policy. I’ll just say that based on this, I think the potentially revolutionary nature of AI warrants some preemptive policy guardrails that I probably wouldn’t support for most other emerging techs. Given the challenges Colorado and other states have faced with implementing these laws, more public debate is both needed and likely to happen.
Further reading: I skimmed this article right after, which quotes the author of the first piece and directly contradicts it. Nothing like quickly falling into a policy wonk fight when you’re first learning about a topic.
Tesla's robotaxi strategy looks a lot like Waymo's
Key Quote: When Waymo last raised money in October, investors valued the firm at $45 billion. As I write this, Tesla is valued at $1.04 trillion. Tesla’s self-driving ambitions are a major factor in that valuation, as many investors expect Tesla to race ahead of Waymo in the self-driving race.
My Takeaway: As a former owner of a Tesla, I can confirm they are an incredible driving experience. But I can also say Autopilot wasn’t always smooth and had issues with some simple driving tasks (like a wide merge lane). I enjoyed and trusted the driver-assisted functions much more than the driverless ones. I don’t know how much driverless tech is factored in to Tesla’s stock price or to Waymo’s2 but a 20x multiple does seem very wide, given this article’s characterization of Tesla vs Waymo in the driverless car race. At a minimum, it’s probably worth learning more about Waymo.
Does Everyone Really Need to Eat More Protein? | ParentData by Emily Oster
Key Quote: Based on these studies (and many, many others), it seems fairly clear that if you are a serious athlete, or even someone who exercises regularly, 0.8 grams per kg of body weight is not enough. For optimal athletic performance, you are likely to need more protein overall — the exact amount (1.5, 2, 2.5 grams per kg) is an open question
My Takeaway: For most people, yes, eating more protein is probably good/needed.
Loving Run Club
Key Quote: No matter how challenging or long the scheduled workout is for that day, I know once I get into the car to go to run club, the run, in some ways, is already run.
My Takeaway: Leone remains one of my favorite writers, for the concise manner he conveys the key point. In this case, if we want to make a productive habit change in our lives, create systems that allow us to “lean on structure and/or community to make things easier.”
Book Update
Finished:
Hidden Potential by Adam Grant — Rated 3/5 (memorable)3
It wasn’t my favorite Grant book, but that’s an extremely high bar, as Think Again is one of my favorite books ever. Hidden Potential is filled with the usual Grant’ pearls of wisdom and easy-to-understand analogies and metaphors you can remember for your daily life. My favorite was Cheerleader vs Critic vs Coach, which says, “It's easy to be a critic or a cheerleader. It's harder to be a coach. A critic sees your weaknesses and attacks your worst self. A cheerleader sees your strengths and celebrates your best self. A coach sees your potential and helps you become a better version of yourself.”
In Progress:
My goal is to read 3 books at one time: 1 non-fiction, 1 fiction, and one self-improvement, though I allow myself flexibility if something else catches my eye.
And to help me retain what I’m reading and think more carefully about it.
And this is not financial advice