Who should be the NFL MVP?
Dak leads a crowded field
The MVP field is as crowded as it comes, with every option having a flaw.
Jalen Hurts? QB of the best team so far, but his individual play has been uneven.
Brock Purdy? Best metrics, but come on dude, his weapons are insane.
Josh Allen? He’s played awesome but has a 15% chance of making the playoffs.
Dak? The Cowboys haven’t even beaten a team with a winning record.
And so it goes. Through 12 weeks, there is no clear and obvious choice, and the talk shows with Hot Sports Pregnancy Opinions absolutely love to see it.
To me, the MVP should be a factor of these three categories, in this order:
The player was the “most valuable” to his team (sorry non-QBs)
The player who played the best
A/The leading figure on one of the best teams in the league
In effect, this means that through no fault of their own, non-QBs will not and should not almost ever win the award, barring some kind of insane, record-shattering level of performance. The positional impact of QB is simply too much to overcome. While they aren’t in consideration for the MVP for me, CMC and Tyreek have been clearly the best players at their position this year, and I fully expect one of them to win OPOY.
Let’s review the quarterback MVP cases below.
Quarterbacks
I alluded to it in the intro, but the MVP race is a total cluster right now, with at least one significant hole in each QB’s MVP candidacy. To explore this further, I’ve put together the two charts below, which analyzes the top 9 MVP candidates (in my opinion).
While the charts has limitations (shocking), it’s essentially measuring this:
The individual play of the QB separate from supporting cast (PFF grade)
The play of the QB and his supporting cast on passing plays (EPA/play, QBR, Success rate, and CPOE)
His supporting cast (Offensive line pass blocking using Ben Baldwin’s weighted model, and receiving grade using the average of PFF receiving grade and ESPN receiving rating)
Team Success (using defensive EPA, offensive EPA, team EPA rank, and team record)
Using that methodolgy, we gain an understanding of how the QB has played relative to his situation, and can conclude who *should* be the MVP, with admittedly less emphasis on team success than the NFL media usually places on it. So, with that in mind, here’s my ranking of MVP candidates through week 12.
The Leaders
Dak Prescott
The case for Dak is simple. He ranks #1 in PFF grade and QBR, #2 in EPA/play, and #3 in success rate. The Cowboys are #2 in EPA on offense, and are tied for the second best record in the league. Through 12 weeks, Dak’s been the best quarterback in the league, for a top five team in the league. Incredibly, Dak has achieved these results despite a slightly below average offensive line and receiving compared to his MVP candidate peers.
The only real knocks against Dak are that the Cowboys’ elite defense has helped the team achieve its success, and the fact that the Cowboys lost to the Eagles and were destroyed by the 49ers. With a difficult stretch to end the season against good teams (Eagles, Bills, Dolphins, Lions), Dak and the Cowboys have the chance to flip that narrative. If the Cowboys finish that stretch 3-1, or maybe even 2-2, if Dak continues to play at this elite level then Dak should and likely does win the MVP. Even if he doesn’t, or the Cowboys flop down the stretch, it’s difficult to overstate how good he’s been so far.
Brock Purdy and Josh Allen
The cases for Purdy and Allen are exact opposites. Purdy is last among MVP candidates in PFF grade (and 14th overall), but he ranks 1st in EPA/play, success rate, and CPOE, and 2nd in QBR. The 49ers are arguably the best team in football, ranking first in team EPA and tied for third in team record. However, much of Purdy’s elite efficiency is likely due to the combined talents of CMC, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel, who have generated an average receiving grade of 84.3, which blows away the next best group (the Ravens at 66.7). The 49ers offensive line is worst among MVP candidate teams, but Deebo and CMC are quick-win/YAC weapons made to offset that disadvantage. While Purdy isn’t the best quarterback out of this group, a dominant stretch run by the 49ers (starting Sunday vs the Eagles) might be enough to cement an MVP.
On the opposite end of the spectrum is Josh Allen. Allen has been sterling this year, ranking no lower than 3rd among MVP candidates in any offensive metric. Opposite Purdy, Allen has benefitted from the best pass-blocking offensive line in the league, but the worst set of receving weapons among any MVP candidate. Additionally, the Bills defense has been ravaged by injuries, and now ranks 7th out of the 9 MVP candidate teams. The Bills only have a record of 6-6, worst among MVP candidate teams, and only have a 15% chance to make the playoffs. Absent a dominant stretch run that propels the Bills to the playoffs, Allen will not win the MVP in 2023. However, we are purely discussing who should win the MVP, and Allen reamins one of the leaders for 2023.
Second Tier Contenders
Patrick Mahomes
The Chiefs and Mahomes have not generated the same world-destroying levels of offense this year, but they remain among the Super Bowl favorites. Much of this is due to a conscious decision by the Chiefs to allocate resources to their defense and offensive line, while relying on Mahomes to elevate a less talented receiving core. Mahomes is absolutely doing that, but with mixed results. Mahomes ranks 3rd in PFF grade and 4th in EPA/play and QBR, but is last among MVP candidates in success rate and 7th in CPOE. Much of this is due to drops by his receivers, and it’s likely that with an average receiving unit among MVP candiates, Mahomes’ success rate and CPOE would rise. However, the Chiefs have delievered on their plan of elite offensive line play and defense, with units that rank 3rd and 4th among MVP candidates. While his MVP case isn’t top tier this year, Mahomes and the Chiefs are surely content with a 45% chance at the bye and another year as a Super Bowl favorite.
Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson
Hurts and Lamar have similar MVP cases. Each is below average amongst his MVP candidate peers in each of the key metrics, but has a dominant supporting cast and is leading two of the best overall teams in football. In the NFL, these are often the types of players the media advocates for to win MVP, aka the whole “best player on the best team” narrative. While they are among the betting favorites to win it, their lack of individual success pushes them down my list. However, each have key matchups down the stretch, and a dominant run from either could easily elevate them into the leader category. With two huge matchups against the 49ers and Cowboys the next two weeks, Hurts seems the likelist of the two to boost his chances.
Tua Tagovailoa
Tua’s case is similar to Lamar and Hurts, but the narrative surrounding him and the fact that he plays in a Shanahan-style offense weakens both his actual and deserved chances. Still, Tua and the Dolphins rank 5th or better in every category except QBR among the MVP candidates and their teams. The Dolphins seemingly don’t get credit for their success, in part due to lesser performances vs good teams. That seems fair, but if the market continues to soft fade the Dolphins and Tua, it could make for some good buying opportunities for the playoffs, both for the actual playoffs and for fantasy.
Not Real Contenders but Worth Noting
CJ Stroud and Trevor Lawrence
It’s fitting that the AFC South has delivered the final two MVP candidates, but neither is really in the race. Neither has delievered the individual results needed to truly be in the conversation, but with lesser supporting casts, the fact that they are on the fringe is still impressive. It’s also worth noting that Lawrence’s success rate and Stroud’s PFF grade allow for the possibility of some positive regression in EPA down the stretch, which could be fun for fantasy and the playoffs. Even if it occurs, it won’t be enough to win the MVP, but no AFC contender will be excited to see one of these two QBs in the playoffs, when options like Kenny Pickett, Gardner Minshew, and “Insert Browns QB” here on on the board.