The Sketch: Week Four

Texans Litmus Test

Three Thoughts On Week Three

1. The Vikings… Super Bowl Contenders?

When I wrote up the Vikings as the best coached team in football last week, even I didn’t expect the absolute shellacking they would put on the Texans. With dominant wins over the Giants and Texans, and a one-score win over the 49ers (that could have been more), it’s hard to argue against the Vikings being one of the teams in the NFL. That said, I fully expect their divisional matchups to be tough, as the Lions and Packers are also very good, and as I’ve written, I expect the Bears to improve in the coming weeks. Speaking of divisional opponents…

2. The Packers are also one of the best coached teams in football

Before the last two games, Malik Willis had one of the worst starts to an NFL career in recent memory, looking completely non-viable as a passer. Two weeks later, and Willis has played like one of the most efficient QBs in football.

Essentially, LaFleur was able to completely shift his offensive design from a West Coast style designed to emphasize Love’s accuracy, athleticism, and decision-making, to a read-option, run-first system that emphasizes Willis’ mobility and outside the pocket skills. The Packers were able to control both games on the ground, while playing efficiently through the air, leading to easy wins over the Colts and Titans. While the Vikings will be a much greater challenge, LaFleur’s performance so far has been one of the best in the NFL.

3. The Texans Offense is a disappointment… so far…

I was a huge Texans bull and Stroud believer this offseason, and simply put, it just may not happen for them. The offensive line has not been great, with average pass blocking and poor run blocking so far. Stroud has not mitigated pressure well, with one of the higher pressure-to-sack ratios in the league, and hasn’t been able to push the ball downfield effectively. And perhaps most importantly, the Texans coaching has been extremely poor, with the foremost example being a 2nd and 13 run to their 3rd string RB down 14-0 to the Vikings last week. While they have throw the ball on first at a decent clip, they remain one of the worst perpetrators of the 2nd and 10 run, putting an offensive line and quarterback that have struggled to diagnose pressure looks at even greater risk. I have hope that some of those mental mistakes can be cleaned up, and Stroud is an interesting buy-low candidate, but the Texans poor situational playcalling is likely here to stay.

…However, if there is a matchup to get the passing game going, this week vs the Jaguars might be it. The Jaguars’ pass rush is one of the worst in the league, and the Texans have injuries at the running back position. On offense, the Jaguars are playing relatively fast and throwing often, even if they haven’t had much success so far. Essentially, this game boils down to a “who do you want to be” for DeMeco Ryans and the Texans. Are they content to simply play tight, winning close games over inferior opponents, and losing when that defensive approach isn’t working? Or, is it finally time to take the training wheels off your star QB, and let him begin to run the show with his talented receiving weapons?

I expect Ryans to stick with his defensive approach, but there’s at least a path where that ass-kicking at the hands of the Vikings incentivizes the Texans to open it up. Here’s to hoping.

Week Four Data

This chart is intended to be a one-stop shop for each matchup that details a bunch of key factors to the game, including O/U, team implied points, pace, team pass/rush rates, each teams offensive and defensive efficiency, and the strength of each teams offensive and defensive lines.¹ Below the chart, I’ll analyze a few key points that stand out to me for this week. Please note that much of this data will be extremely volatile early in the season, which reduces how actionable that information is. As the season progresses, that data will become more and more useful.

Game Environment

Each week, this section will include analysis on each team’s projected points, pace, and matchup for their upcoming game.

Totals

Each week, I break matchups down into Slight Favorites, Clear Favorites, and Toss-up games, as those teams (that also have high game O/Us) are often who we want to target most.²

Slight Favorites (-3.5 to -6.5)

Cowboys (-5/25), Texans (-6/25.75), Bengals (-4.5/26), Cardinals (-3.5/27), Lions (-3.5/25)

There’s lots of fantasy goodness in the Slight Favorites section this week, with high-powered and concentrated offenses leading the way. The Texans and Cardinals are each likely to be without one of their top weapons (Trey McBride and Tank Dell), which potentially funnels even more volume to Marvin Harrison Jr, Nico Collins (limited in practice Thursday), and Stefon Diggs. Meanwhile, the Bengals are desperate for a win and are facing off against a suddenly competent and more pass-centric Panthers team, increasing the chances of shootout potential. The Lions and Seahawks have both produced very good offensive performances through three weeks, and each is playoff contender at a minimum.

Clear Favorites (-7 or more)

Jets (-7.5/23.5), Chiefs (-7/23.5), 49ers (-10/25.25)

The Jets have played faster than expected recently, and are now an above average neutral pace team on the season. Despite a challenging defensive matchup and an likely inept offense on the other side, Rodgers and company are in a decent spot. The Chiefs have survived their way to 3-0, despite some sub-par play from Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Xavier Worthy. Still, the Chargers play fast and run the ball well. If the Chargers can get a lead, the Chiefs might finally have a greater sense of urgent to pair with their above average pass and pass rate. The 49ers are likely to again be without CMC, Kittle, and Deebo, leaving volume funneled to Jajaun Jennings, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jordan Mason. Ownership will again be a critical factor for the 49ers in DFS this week.

Toss-up games (-3 to +3)

Steelers (-1.5/20.75), Packers (-2.5/23), Falcons (-2.5/22.75), Bears (-3/22), Ravens (-2.5/24.5), Eagles (-1.5/20.75), Raiders (-2/19.5), Dolphins (-1/18.75)

There’s a few fun matchups in the toss-up category this week, with Vikings-Packers, Ravens-Bills, and Saints-Falcons. I’m surprised at the favorites in each of those games, increasing my interest in stacking those games in DFS. The Bills are 2.5 underdogs despite looking like a dominant force so far, while the Ravens have struggled their way to 1-2. I wrote up the Vikings as the best coached team in football last week, and even with Matt LeFleur on the other side, I like them to win outright here as well. As much as I like Jordan Love, facing Flores your first game back from a sprained MCL is a tough challenge. As for the Saints-Falcons, each has shown highs and lows so far this season. Both are running the ball at league-leading levels, but showing competency in the pass game, and play fast.

Pace

Fast Pace Matchups

The Vikings and Packers (*if Love plays*). If Love plays, the Packers probably play at an average pace with a slightly above average passing rate. On the other side, the Vikings remain one of the best pace-pushers in the league, playing fast and throwing often.

Texans-Jaguars. As written above, while neither team is establishing the pass so far, both throw it at an above average clip. Both also play sightly faster than average. Assuming the game stays relatively close, it’s likely we see slightly elevated play volume and passing from one or both of these teams this week.

Slow Pace Matchups

Bears-Rams. While the Bears have thrown the ball at an above average clip this year, they haven’t had much success, with one of the worst dropback EPAs/play in the league. With rumors of an increased role from Roschon Johnson this week, and a poor Rams run defense on the other side, I expect the Bears to attempt to establish the ground game, and be more successful at it. For the Rams part, they are below average in both neutral pace and pass rate, and will be without their two top pass weapons again. A heavy dose of Kyren Williams is likely again this week as well.

49ers-Patriots and Dolphins-Titans. Each of these teams plays slowly, and three of the offenses are bordering on complete incompetence. The 49ers will probably be efficient, but each of the other team will do their best to suffocate play volume and passing. There is the hope that one of the Dolphins skill guys can break a long touchdown, or Will Levis can connect on a bomb, but slow-paced slogs should be our expectation.

OL/DL

Three DL Mismatches

• Texans pass rush (52%) vs Jags pass blocking (52%)

• Bears pass rush (63%) vs Rams pass blocking (54%)

• Lions pass rush (48%) vs Seahawks (38%)

Three OL Mismatches

• Saints run blocking (77%) vs Falcons run defense (28%)

• Bengals OL (67%, 74%) vs Panthers DL (38%, 26%)

• Dolphins run blocking (74%) vs Titans run defense (30%)

DFS Plan of Attack

***No DFS section this week as I’m out of pocket, but it’ll be back next week. On a positive note, there is best ball analysis this week, so be sure to check that out below.

Redraft Recommendations