The Sketch: Week Three

Including a brief intro on the State of the NFL

Welcome to The Sketch, Reducing Uncertainty’s flagship article for the 2024 season. Each week, I’ll recap a few key things that stood out to me from the previous week, before diving into the upcoming week. The first part of this article, which includes a conglomeration of key data I use for my own fantasy success, and my analysis on that data, is free. The second part, which includes more specific recommendations for season-long, best ball, and DFS requires a paid subscription either $5/month or $50/year. As always, thanks for reading, and let’s dive into Week Three of The Sketch.

Before we fully dive in, I wanted to write a bit about the current state of the NFL, as many others have done this week. It’s clear that a new age of the NFL is fully upon us¹, and unfortunately, it feels less fun. Both passing efficiency and passing volume are down, as defenses run 2-high shells at the highest rate in league history. Rushing efficiency is at a relative high to passing efficiency too, with mobile QBs becoming even more of a cheat code than before.

With scoring down to 2000s levels, the NFL feels as bleak and as boring as it has in many of our lifetimes.

Obviously, the lack of scoring leads to some strong feelings, with one twitter interaction providing an example of almost all of the emotions that football fans are going through. In it, we see pure optimism, pure rationality, and a melancholy statement that every sport analytics touches, it makes worse for the viewer. It essentially reads like a NFL-induced stages of grief.

So, is football solved? Are we doomed to live with this less explosive version of the game forever?

I doubt it.

In Doug Farrar’s book, The Genius of Desperation, he goes era-by-era, starting in the 19020s, to examine how NFL teams have come up with inventive solutions to difficult situations. Examples include how Lombardi perfected the power sweep offense, but the Chiefs used a "Triple Stack” front to sow pre-snap confusion on who to block. The Packers still won the Super Bowl, but only due to their own defensive adjustment to the Chiefs short passing game, where they blitzed and bluffed blitzes to confuse Hall-of-Fame quarterback Len Dawson into taking sacks and throwing a key interception.

Similarly, Tom Landry created a new variation of the standard 4-man front defense, called The Flex, which was predicated on disguising that they were actual in a gap defense, allowing them to more effectively stop Lombardi’s outside runs. The Cowboys’ “Doomsday Defense” took the league by storm, leading the Cowboys to two Super Bowls in the 1970s. But the Steelers, led by Terry Bradshaw, simply quit running on first down vs the Cowboys, taking advantage of the fact that he was all-but-certain the Cowboys’ corners would be in man coverage. The Steelers went on to win four Super Bowls in the 70s, including two over the Cowboys.

And so it goes. When I initially read the Genius of Desperation a few years back, two phrases continually popped into my mind.

1. Football is cyclical

2. Evolution is constant

After the first two weeks of 2024, I opened the book back up and started skimming through it. I noticed that Farrar titled his last chapter, “The NFL’s Future”, and turned to that page. On that page, Farrar including this quote, which is nearly as perfect as can be for this moment:

“Many before have hailed the end of history; none have ever been right”

So yes, the early 2020s looks to be the age of defenses. They have clearly adapted to the high-scoring, deep-passing meta of the 2010s (which was in part brought on by trying to solve the Legion of Boom’s single-high safety scheme). They have the advantage right now. But to those bemoaning the NFL’s current state, hold fast, as it’s likely that someone is already deciphering a way to take advantage of this conservative defensive approach.² While this new offensive meta will almost certainly look different, it is also almost certain that offenses will regain the edge again. I have some ideas on what exactly that will look like, but that’ll have to be a longer-term project, as I’m on a tighter timeline than usual this week.

So, on that optimistic note, let’s dive into week three of The Sketch.

Three Thoughts On Week One

1. The Saints are for real

Last week, amidst new Saints Offensive Coordinator Klint Kubiak’s league-leading use of motion and play-action, I wrote:

“My second favorite of the slight favorites is probably the Cowboys-Saints matchup, as each played at an average pace and ran slightly more than the average number of plays. The Saints PROE was among the league-lowest in week one, but given their absolute shellacking of the Panthers, it’s possible the metric isn’t fully capturing their preferred pass rate. Add in the aforementioned Kubiak’s infusion of motion and play-action as offensive efficiency boosters (which has absolutely destroyed this Dallas defense in recent seasons), and Cowboys-Saints could make for a fun contrarian game stack in DFS if the ownership isn’t there.”

I also recommended the DFS lineup starter of Dak-CD-Schoonmaker + one of Olave/Shaheed/Kamara. But even I didn’t foresee the absolute statement that the Saints made. They scored on every drive to start the first half, essentially putting the Cowboys away by halftime with a 35-16 lead, and completely neutralized the vaunted Dallas pass rush. Going forward, the Saints and their offensive easy buttons will be one of the most interesting and enjoyable storylines to watch this season.

2. The Texans pass defense is for real… and don’t count Caleb Williams out

The Texans pass defense is probably already one of the league’s best. Through two weeks, they’re 4th in defensive dropback success rate and 10th in dropback EPA/play. Their pass rush is winning 52% of the time, the 5th-highest rate in the league. Last week, they generated a whopping 36 total pressures, pressuring Caleb Williams on 23 of his 48 dropbacks. Unfortunately for fantasy players, that probably limits the ceiling of the Texans offense, as their weekly shootout chances are lower.

Relatedly, I went back and watched every dropback for Williams (many of which are here), and I wouldn’t give up on him yet. The Bears OL and protection scheme did him no favors, blowing blocks nearly every time the Texans brought pressure or ran a stunt up front. Through two weeks, the Bears rank 29th in pass block win rate. If we’re faulting Williams on anything, it’s that he just missed on a few throws, and tried to do too much on the two interceptions.

Going forward, I expect the Bears to slightly improve their protection and communication as the season progresses. Couple that with the eventual return of Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze recovering to full health, and the eventual replacement of the league’s current worst rusher, and it’s nearly impossible that Williams situation gets any worse. I’ve tried to acquire him in multiple leagues this week.

3. The Vikings are the best coached team in football

I was a doubter that Justin Jefferson and Kevin O’Connell would be able to elevate Sam Darnold, and two weeks in, I’ve already taken my L. Darnold will certainly have some peaks and valleys (as he did Sunday), but the combination of the best receiver I’ve ever seen and one of the best schemers in the game means Darnold and the Vikings are going to be a fun offense at worst. Through two weeks, Jefferson has two touchdowns, with KOC having a strong hand in each.

In week one, KOC used motion to get Jefferson an isolated 1v1 with a two-way go on the goalline. Jefferson won on his slant despite nearly perfect technique from the corner, and it’s easy touchdown Vikings.

In week two, KOC used playaction to pull the defense in, a deep crosser to give Darnold a clean read, and then Jefferson did what he does, destroying the corner initially before accelerating over and past the cover one safety. Again, touchdown Vikings.

Two snaps, two entirely different situations, two different easy buttons for the quarterback to get the ball to his best player, and two touchdowns. That’s good coaching at its finest.

But the Vikings coaching advantage doesn’t end there.

Brian Flores is leading the charge for the Vikings defensively, and despite a defense that probably isn’t among the league’s most talented, they are causing all sorts of problems, even for the vaunted 49ers attack. In short, Flores has married two polar opposite defensive systems together, as we can see from Hayden’s chart below.

On one hand, Flores has the Vikings running a 2-high shell 75% of the time, highest in the league, a la the Vic Fangio school of defense. But Flores isn’t simply lining up in 2-high statically before the snap, which would give the offense time to audible to a better play. He’s disguising it (forcing the offense to react) by using some of the craziest pre-snap schemes I’ve seen, including the patented Mike Zimmer double-A-gap special, also known as ‘Mug’.

On the second play in this clip (which starts at 00:35), Flores has 8 players on the line of scrimmage, including the double-a-gap look, with 2 corners out wide and one safety deep. Any or all of those 8 players could rush, forcing Purdy and the 49ers to account for them via their protection scheme.

At the snap four seconds later, 4 of the 8 drop into coverage, eventually merging into a 2-high cover two look.

Purdy catches the snap and immediately looks to get the ball out quick, as it’s at least plausible that the Vikings are bringing pressure (given their pre-snap formation and the fact that they blitzed at a league-high 51% last year). Unfortunately for Purdy, he doesn’t have a clean read or throw, as there’s a defender robbing the slant, and a another defender dropping towards the dig route. Purdy might be able to hit the dig, but it’s going to be an extremely tight throw at a minimum.

Ideally, Purdy would have time to flip to his backside read, where the numbers favor the 49ers (2 vs 3 instead of 2 vs 4). George Kittle is starting to come open on a corner route, but since the Vikings showed 8 possible rushers, they were also able to jam Jennings and force Kittle to take an inside release, slowing the development of the play.

In any case, Purdy doesn’t even have a chance to get to his backside read, as by the time George Kittle is coming open on the backside corner route, Purdy is already facing pressure from his right. Why? Because the combination of the Vikings pre-snap pressure look and a surging #43 (who looked like he might split the 49ers left guard and tackle) tempted Jordan Mason to go back to the 49ers 3-man protection side, leaving both Vikings rushers on the right side of the offensive line 1v1.

While the 49ers probably have the best cast of weapons in the league, and despite having Trent Williams at left tackle (who was the top-ranked pass block win rate player in the league in 2023), the 49ers only ranked 20th as a unit in PBWR. If there is a weakness of the 49ers offense, it’s the right side of the offensive line. Through the combination of his pre-snap pressure look and a post-snap change, Flores put his players in a position to exploit the 49ers key weakness, while using a conservative coverage designed to limit big plays. It’s elite coaching, and another example of the challenges that modern offenses are facing, as Brock Purdy acknowledged after the game.

With KOC scheming up iso opportunities for the best receiver in the game, and Flores driving quarterbacks and offensive coordinators insane on the other side of the ball, the Vikings one of the best coached teams in the league and an NFC North contender, journeyman quarterback or not.

Long intro and thoughts from last week, so without further ado, let’s move to week three.

Week Three Data

This chart is intended to be a one-stop shop for each matchup that details a bunch of key factors to the game, including O/U, team implied points, pace, team pass/rush rates, each teams offensive and defensive efficiency, and the strength of each teams offensive and defensive lines.¹ Below the chart, I’ll analyze a few key points that stand out to me for this week. Please note that much of this data will be extremely volatile early in the season, which reduces how actionable that information is. As the season progresses, that data will become more and more useful.

For this week, I’m still primarily focused on implied team totals, pace, and pass rate over expected. However, the OL/DL metrics are starting to creep into my calculations more, and they’ll be an emphasis in the coming weeks. All that said, it’s still early, I’d encourage you to lean into your own opinions for another week or two.

Game Environment

Each week, this section will include analysis on each team’s projected points, pace, and matchup for their upcoming game.

Totals

Each week, I break matchups down into Slight Favorites, Clear Favorites, and Toss-up games, as those teams (that also have high game O/Us) are often who we want to target most.²

Slight Favorites (-3.5 to -6.5)

Jets (-6.5/22.5), Browns (-6/22.5), Bucs (-6.5/23), Raiders (-5.5/23.25), Seahawks (-4.5/23), Chiefs (-3.5/25), Bills (-5/25.25)

It’s an interesting week for slight favorites, as none of the main slate slight favorites have an implied team total lower than 22.5 or higher than 23.25. For those matchups, I’ll want to focus more on each teams pace, pass rate, and how they match up to their specific opponent.

Off the main slate, both the Chiefs and Bills are in smash spots, with totals over 25.

Clear Favorites (-7 or more)

Bengals (-7.5/28), 49ers (-7.5/25.25)

The Bengals aren’t on the main slate either, but they enter week three desperate for a win. With the highest total on the week, the highest pass rate over expectation in the league, and facing off against a poor Commanders defensive line, it’s a get right spot for Joe Burrow, Ja’marr Chase, and maybe even Tee Higgins. The Bengals defense is also one of my favorite streamers on the week, as Jayden Daniels high pressure-to-sack ratio has followed him to the NFL, despite average Commanders pass blocking and a short ADOT offense.

As for the 49ers, I’ll be surprised if they don’t garner significant DFS ownership this week. With CMC and Deebo Samuel out, a concentrated offense through Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Jordan Mason is highly likely. While their slow pace and PROE always pose volume concerns, their efficiency is likely to remain among the league’s best, even without two of their best weapons.

Toss-up games (-3 to +3)

Saints (-2.5/26), Texans (-2.5/24.25), Titans (-3/19.75), Colts (-1/22.25), Steelers (-1/18.25), Ravens (-1/25), Lions (-2.5/27.5)

It’s a heavy week for toss-up games, and at first glance, this will be both the most fun and the most popular game environments to target. The Lions lead the main slate with a 27.5 total, and coming off a loss where they gained nearly double the Buccaneers yardage, I expect them to be ready to go. The Ravens also suffered an embarrassing loss, blowing yet another late led to an inferior opponent last week. With a 25 point total and a fast-paced and pass-happy Dallas team on the other side, this game could be a highlight-filled shootout. Texans-Vikings pits two of the top coaching minds in the league against each other, with a C.J. Stroud-Brian Flores matchup on the other side. I expect a high-level chess match, and that’ll almost certainly be a game I watch again once the coaches film comes out. The Saints are everyone’s darling right now, leading the league in using easy buttons on offense. Still, I was surprised to see them favored here, even with the likely absence of A.J. Brown. The Colts, Steelers, and Titans round out the toss-up games, with significantly lower implied totals, with each likely to focus on a ground-n-pound attack again this week.

Pace

Fast Pace Matchups

The Eagles and Saints are both playing fast and each has had some of the best offensive lines in the league so far. Each has a middling defensive line so far, and neither has thrown the ball at a high rate (yet). Ultimately, this game could be extremely fast and efficient, even if we probably see more early-down rushes than we would like. However, I do continue to think the Saints PROE is slightly more negative than they intend, as they’ve played in two massive blowouts. Eventually, some team is going to push them, and we don’t know what the ceiling of that environment is yet.

Browns-Giants and Jets-Patriots also project to be fast pace games this week, but each has an O/U of 38.5, meaning the extra volume isn’t likely to generate extra scoring. However, as usual, there is a world where a broken play or two juices someone’s efficiency, and the elevated volume from the pace generates an ideal game environment. With Malik Nabers, Garrett Wilson, and Breece Hall all involved in these games, I might be more interested than I normally would be, especially as one-off DFS plays.

Slow Pace Matchups

Titans-Packers. These two teams have combined for a -24% PROE over the first two weeks. And that understates how run-heavy the Packers are likely to be, as it includes the Packers week one game with Jordan Love at QB, where they threw the ball at an above 2024 league average -0.4% PROE. Couple that with a combined slightly below average pace, and this projects to be a throwback to 1950s football. Maybe we’ll even see Tom Landry’s Flex defense.

Raiders-Panthers is another slow pace matchup, with the Panthers essentially giving up on the season after two weeks. Andy Dalton should bring a semblance of competency, and I’m low-key bullish on the Panthers offense the rest of the way (in a you could be the 20th best type of way). However, the Panthers have one of the lowest PROEs in the league, and the Raiders prefer to play slow. If there is a redeemable quality, it’s the Raiders have the second-highest PROE in the league so far. It’s plausible that they are embracing their talented trio of weapons, including arguable TE1 overall Brock Bowers, but their dead last run block win rate (RBWR) suggests it’s more of a necessity. With the Panthers unable to stop the run at all so far (dead last in run stop win rate), I’d imagine Antonio Pierce wants the Raiders to get back to the ground game this week. While that is less fun, it could make for an interesting buy slightly-off-his-peak scenario for Brock Bowers.

49ers-Rams. The final slow game is of course, one involving the 49ers. With the Rams devoid of offensive talent, I expect the 49ers to slowly and meticulously win the game, especially given the Rams weak run stop win rate.

OL/DL

Three DL Mismatches

• Jets run defense (35%) vs Pats run blocking (70%)

• Broncos run defense (34%) vs Bucs run blocking (67%)

• Bills pass rush (47%) vs Jaguars pass blocking (52%)

Three OL Mismatches

• Lions pass blocking (67%) vs Cardinals pass rush (29%)

• Chiefs pass blocking (65%) vs Falcons pass rush (23%)

• Bills pass blocking (85%) vs Jaguars pass rush (25%)

DFS Plan of Attack