The Sketch: Week Five

Jaguars leverage week

Three Thoughts On Week Four

1. Patrick Mahomes is playing the worst football of his career

After another mediocre Mahomes performance where he threw a horrible interception, hurt his best receiver, and the Chiefs still won, he’s now ranked as an roughly average QB in EPA, PFF grade, and in Kevin Cole’s adjusted QB rankings. He’s below average in both big-time throw rate and in turnover-worthy throw rate, which places him in the “bad” quadrant of the chart.

This is despite the Chiefs OL ranking as one of the better units in the league in both ESPN’s pass block win rate and unit PFF grade, and Travis Kelce leading all tight ends in Open Score. We saw Mahomes struggle in stretches last year, as the Chiefs rode an elite defense most of the way to another Super Bowl, but Mahomes was also much better than what he’s shown so far this year. With Rice and Pacheco likely out for most of the year, Mahomes will need to rediscover his play from past seasons if the Chiefs are going to make another run. Luckily, the Chiefs have a strong defense again, and a league-leading rushing success rate (which is undoubtedly partly due to how defenses gameplan against Mahomes). Ultimately, in fantasy, Mahomes profiles as a mid-career Tom Brady, where he is efficient on a down-to-down basis, but mostly lacks the explosive performances that made the league fear him.

2. Josh Downs, best ball savior

When healthy, Downs has looked like one of the better slot receivers in the league through his first two seasons. His Reception Perception charting was elite, and he was one of my core bets in best ball. Through his first two games of 2024, he’s backing up the hype. So far, he’s earned a target share of 26%, despite only running a route on 73% of dropbacks, which ranks top 15 in the league and is tied with Michael Pittman for the team lead. Downs has also been more efficient than Pittman, averaging 2.6 yards per route run, compared to Pittman’s 2.1. Entering week five, Downs is arguably the Colts best receiver, entering a potential smash spot vs the man-coverage heavy Jaguars. With a slow start to some of my other core best ball bets, Downs is easily the bet I’m most excited about thus far.

3. The Seahawks offense is built for fantasy goodness

Even with one of the worst offensive lines in the league so far, Ryan Grubb has shown no fear, playing fast and attacking defenses with the pass. Through four weeks, here’s where the Seahawks rank in a few key metrics:

• 3rd in neutral pace

• 1st in pass rate over expected

• 6th in plays per game

While they haven’t hit on big-time efficiency yet, it’s hard not to be excited about their potential down the stretch, especially given the return of big-play hunter Kenneth Walker. They also have one of the easier fantasy schedules remaining, per Mike Clay’s weighted rankings. With a deep group of talented options at RB and WR (and even a fantasy-friendly backup to Geno with Sam Howell), the Seahawks are probably one of the highest floor offenses for 2024. Each of Metcalf, Lockett, JSN, Walker, and Charbonnet should be rostered in all leagues, and Geno is one of the best streaming QBs (or bench QB in deep leagues).

Week Five Data

This chart is intended to be a one-stop shop for each matchup that details a bunch of key factors to the game, including O/U, team implied points, pace, team pass/rush rates, each teams offensive/defensive efficiency, and the strength of each teams offensive/defensive lines.¹ Below the chart, I’ll analyze a few key points that stand out.

Game Environment

Each week, this section will include analysis on each team’s projected points, pace, and matchup for their upcoming game.

Totals

Each week, I break matchups down into Slight Favorites, Clear Favorites, and Toss-up games, as those teams (that also have high O/Us) are who we want to target most.²

Slight Favorites (-3.5 to -6.5)

Commanders (-3.5/23.5), Bears (-4/23), Seahawks (-6.5/25), Chiefs (-5.5/24.25)

The Bears are the clear odd-team out in this group, as they’ve struggled on offense to start the year, ranking below average in both dropback and rush EPA/play. That said, they’re in a good spot here vs the Panthers, who are struggling to defend the pass and run. Neither team pushes the pace, but each are willing to throw the ball.

The Commanders only have a 23.5 implied total, but that’s mostly due to the strength of the Browns defense, who have allowed a league-best 33% success rate on dropbacks, led by a defensive line that is dominant both the pass and ran. Jayden Daniels and the Commanders OL have been very good to start the year, but they’ll face a tough test here.

As mentioned above, I love the Seahawks fast-paced and pass-heavy offense, and they’re in a great spot here, with the third-highest implied total on the main slate. The Seahawks OL is struggling, with bottom-10 ranks in both pass block and run block win rate. The Giants DL isn’t special, but they do have a good defensive line. Geno and company are used to dealing with blocking issues, and that will likely be the case again this week.

Despite a mediocre start, the Chiefs are still playing fast and throwing often. However, the Saints defense has been above average so far, despite a DL that isn’t generating pressure or getting off run blocks at a high rate. Ultimately, this points to another week where Mahomes has lots of time to operate, but faces a strong coverage unit that will attempt to limit big plays. That’s Travis Kelce’s music.

Clear Favorites (-7 or more)

49ers (-7.5/28.5)

One team stands alone in the clear favorite category this week, with the vaunted 49ers offense facing off against an atrocious Cardinals defense allowing a league-worst 60% dropback success rate and 3rd-worst 48% rushing success rate. The 49ers will likely have success doing whatever they want this week, with Jordan Mason again profiling as one of the likeliest players to score a touchdown. As usual, expect the 49ers to play very slowly, and with a slight lean to the run. The Cardinals have preferred rushing so far, but will likely need to throw more and play fast if they want to keep pace.

Toss-up games (-3 to +3)

Falcons (-1.5/23.25), Vikings (-2.5/21.25), Ravens (-2.5/25.75), Jaguars (-2.5/24.25), Bills (-1, 24.25), Dolphins/Pats (pickem/18.25), Broncos (-3/19.5), Packers (-3/26), Steelers (-2.5/23.25)

There’s a slew of toss-up games this week, which should make for a fun witching hour on Sunday. We also get the Vikings-Jets in London, as Aaron Rodgers faces off against Brian Flores and the Vikings league-best defense. While Rodgers and the Jets have struggled so far, there’s very few quarterbacks who have seen more than Rodgers, so Flores’ disguised chaos defense is probably more vulnerable than what the numbers show this week. On the other side of the ball, the Jets pass defense has been one of the best in the league, but has struggled to generate pressure and stop the run. With Kevin O’Connell at the helm, I expect the Vikings to rush effectively and scheme their way to completions in the passing game. Ultimately I’m thrilled we get this as an island game, as it’ll be a fun chess match on both sides of the ball.

The Ravens-Bengals and Bills-Texans are probably the next most exciting games. The Ravens have found their identity, which is using Derrick Henry (and Lamar’s gravity) to rush the ball at one of the highest rates and most efficient clips in the league. The Bengals have been one of the worst run-stopping units in the league so far, so we should expect another heavy dose of Henry again. On the other side of the ball, the Bengals are the polar opposite, with the 5th-highest PROE so far. Facing an average Ravens’ pass defense that is elite at stopping the run, it will likely be the Joe Burrow and company show this week.

Bills-Texans should be a matchup of two very similar teams, with each teams slightly more run heavy than we’d like given their star QBs. The Bills are somewhat forced to play this way, given their elite offensive line and poor receiving weapons. The Texans have less of an excuse, given their OL and rushing attack have been poor so far. Rational coaching would dial up more Stroud passing attempts and rely on him and their talented trio of receivers, but it’s unlikely we’ll see it. Adding to our frustration, both the Texans and Bills defenses have been good vs the pass and poor vs the rush, which could prompt a game environment that both limits overall volume and pass attempts. However, the Bills don’t blitz much, and aren’t winning pass rushes at a high rate, which should allow Stroud more time this week. With Tank Dell back from injury and leading the team in ADOT, he’s a fun (and likely low-owned) way to play this game exceeding fantasy expectations.

Packers-Rams and Colt-Jaguars also look to be fun matchups this week, even despite some injuries to each of these teams. With a 26 point total, the Packers have the second-highest total on the slate, and will likely be a more concentrated passing offense than usual. I expect Packers passing stacks to be among the most popular options on the DFS slate, especially against a Rams defense that hasn’t stopped the pass or run well to start the year. With Josh Jacobs still operating as a clear lead back (even with Emmanuel Wilson playing more than some expected), he sets up as one of the clearest leverage plays of the season. With Love at QB, the Packers have been roughly average in PROE, so the chalk vs leverage play will probably come down to who scores the touchdowns.

For the Colts-Jaguars, it’s matchup of two passing offenses that have really struggled to start the year, falling far short of our preseason expectations. However, there are reasons for optimism, as the aforementioned Josh Downs looks like a star, Brian Thomas is an emerging star, and both defenses profiling as slight pass funnels so far. Given the similar price point for the Jaguars to the Packers, betting on Lawrence and company at far less ownership in a similarly good spot will probably be one of my favorite ways to play this slate.

Pace

Fast Pace Matchups

Vikings-Jets. Given there’s only nine teams with a positive PROE, we can almost guarantee a fast pace matchup when two of them play each other. Add in that each team is playing faster than average in neutral situations, and this has the makings of a elevated play volume game, despite two strong defenses. As mentioned above, I think Rodgers’ experience and O’Connell’s scheme prowess can lead to more scoring than expected, and I like the over here.

Jaguars-Colts. Each team plays fast, and the Jaguars are still throw at an above average rate, despite their early struggles. While the Colts have been run-heavy with Richardson at QB, I’d expect a Flacco-led offense to throw far more than that. There’s some input volatility here, and Downs and Pittman could be extremely fun DFS plays with Flacco there. However, the Colts have one of the best run blocking units in the league, while the Jaguars have one of the worst run stopping units. I’ve seen some Trey Sermon doubt on the timeline this week, and I agree he’s extremely mediocre as a talent. But if the Colts OL is able to dominate up front as the numbers suggest, Sermon could find his way to some outlier rushing efficiency.

Chiefs-Saints. Each team plays fast, and the Chiefs throw at a high rate. For all of their use of easy buttons, the Saints prefer rushing the football, with the second lowest PROE through four weeks. However, given the spread, we should expect the Chiefs to garner an early lead, which probably forces the Saints to throw more this week. The Chiefs defense is still an above average unit, but is better vs the run than the pass, increasing the likelihood of higher pass volume than normal for the Saints.

Slow Pace Matchups

Ravens-Bengals. Each team plays slowly in neutral scripts, and it’s hard to see how the Bengals force the Ravens away from the run game this week. Most of the time, I’d expect this game to be a slow-paced slog, with an efficient Ravens attack grinding down the clock. However, if the Bengals commit to stopping the run, it will likely require run blitzes that leave some easy chunk passing plays for Lamar and company. In that scenario, this game could be extremely fun, coupling an efficient and explosive Ravens passing attack with a Bengals team that will likely throw near their highest rate of the season vs this pass funnel Ravens defense.

Bears-Panthers. I’ve showed some optimism for each of these teams passing attacks in recent weeks, but it’s harder to see this week. Each team plays slowly and has a slight lean to the rushing attack in neutral scripts. Defensively, the Bears have one of the best pass units so far, led by an elite pass rush, but only a middling run defense. I expect the Panthers to try and establish the run early, and rely on quick pass attempts that will likely keep the clock running. The Panthers defense has struggled all-around so far, setting up a choose-your-own-adventure scenario for Shane Waldron. It’s plausible he uses it as a confidence-building spot for Caleb Williams and crew, but it’s not something I want to bet on.

OL/DL

DL Mismatches

• Bears pass rush (63%) vs Panthers pass blocking (49%)

• Broncos DL (58%/34%) vs Raiders OL (58%/65%)

• Dolphins DL (39%/32%) vs Patriots OL (39%/69%)

• Giants DL (48%/33%) vs Seahawks OL (49%/67%)

OL Mismatches

• Colts run blocking (75%) vs Jaguars run defense (29%)

• 49ers pass blocking (66%) vs Cardinals pass rush (28%)

• Ravens run blocking (74%) vs Bengals run defense (28%)

• Chiefs OL (71%/73%) vs Saints DL (36%/30%)

DFS Plan of Attack

Each week, I’ll go through my plan of attack for the Draftkings main slate. This will usually consists of a few different subsections, listed below:

• The Centerpiece (the player, team, or theme that the slate hinges on)

• What to do with the chalk

• Input Volatility

• Games to target

• Lineup starters

The Centerpiece: Packers Passing Week