Welcome to Metrics and Matchups, where I’ll detail each of the key metrics for each team, and analyze each matchup for this week. For readers of The Sketch last year, you’ll recognize the chart below, which is color coded to show each team’s strength and weakness. Below that, I’ll analyze each matchup for the week, provide this week’s fast and slow paced games, provide DL and OL mismatches, and pick each game using confidence levels. Let’s get to it.
My other articles for week 5:
Metrics
Data from Fantasy Points, ESPN, Rotoviz, and RBSDM.
Each week, this section will include analysis on each team’s projected points, pace, and matchup for their upcoming game.
Matchups
Each week, I break matchups down into Slight Favorites, Clear Favorites, and Toss-up games, as those teams (that also have high O/Us) are who we want to target most.2
Slight Favorites (-3.5 to -6.5)
Broncos at Eagles
Market prediction: Eagles solid win
My prediction: Eagles close win
OL advantage: Broncos (slight edge overall)
DL advantage: Broncos pass rush
As 4.5 point favorites, the market expects a solid Eagles win here, but it’s probably more fragile than the spread implies. The Eagles have a strong run game, and the Broncos defense while great, is better against the pass than the run. The Eagles are almost certain to attempt to establish the early and often, as they have shown no desire run the offense through their talented receivers. However, the Broncos are middling in 2-high coverages (14th) and run man coverage at the third-highest rate in the league. In scenarios where the Broncos are able to contain the run early, there should be 1-on-1 opportunities for A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith, even if they come against this beast of a Broncos pass defense.
For the Broncos offense, they have an edge in the trenches, as they do most weeks. The Eagles defense consistently allows successful rushes, and J.K. Dobbins is 8th in success rate so far, which sets up well for the Broncos. However, Sean Payton has been ideologically committed to the pass so far, despite below average consistency from Bo Nix and company. Ultimately, the early part of this game will play a huge role into how the gamescript develops. If the Eagles are able tun run early, and the Broncos play their normal passing heavy attack, it’s likely to be a long day for Denver. However, if the Broncos can establish Dobbins and R.J. Harvey early, and contain Philly’s rushing attack, the Eagles could be forced to attack this Broncos pass defense downfield. From a schematic perspective, it’s a fun game that probably disappoints in fantasy in most cases. If there was shootout potential here, it’s probably comes in the form of a strong game from Dobbins or Harvey coupled with an AJB squeaky wheel explosion.
Bucs at Seahawks
Market’s prediction: Seahawks solid win
My prediction: Seahawks solid win in shootout
OL advantage: None
DL advantage: Seahawks pass rush, Bucs pass rush
Through four weeks, the Seahawks look like a better version of the Bucs, as each has a strong passing attack, inefficient rushing offense, and an overall good defense. The Bucs have an edge in rushing defense, as they are the best unit in the league. The Seahawks prefer to run the ball (30th in PROE), but I expect them to shift to the pass here, as the Bucs passing defense is only an average unit. Kenneth Walker’s explosiveness keeps him in the RB2 discussion, while Zach Charbonnet’s style should keep him on benches this week. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the engine of the offense and should see extra work this week. Cooper Kupp is a solid bye-week fill-in, and Sam Darnold stacks make for an interesting GPP play if the Bucs to be able to score.
For the Bucs offense, the injuries remain the issue, with Mike Evans and Bucky Irving set to miss. Tampa has been reliant on explosive passing plays late in game to score thus far, but that is plausible again this week, as that’s the weakest aspect of this good Seattle defense. With Irving out, and Chris Godwin ramping up, I expect the Bucs to choose to attack through the air, avoiding the Seahawks strong rushing defense, and using Rachaad White more through the receiving game, where he’s much stronger. It’s only a neutral matchup for the Bucs passing game, but with added volume, I like playing Emeka Egbuka and/or Godwin as pivots off of White in DFS and as stack bring-backs for Darnold double stacks.
Chiefs at Jaguars
Market’s prediction: Chiefs solid win
My prediction: Chiefs close win
OL advantage: Jaguars (pass and run blocking)
DL advantage: None
The Jaguars didn’t deliver the offense explosion I wanted last week, but did earn an upset win over the 49ers. The market isn’t buying it, with the Chiefs as 4.5 point road favorites. I still view Jacksonville as an underrated team, and they are in an interesting spot with a home primetime game vs a Chiefs team that just shellacked the Ravens.
The issue for the Jags remains the offense, which is only an average unit despite having arguably the best offensive line in the league. With a strong PROE and slightly above-average pace, the Jags want to be aggressive, but Trevor Lawrence’s accuracy issues and Brian Thomas’ concentration issues (and/or wrist) continue to plague them. However, the Chiefs present a prime opportunity for Liam Cohen to showcase his rushing game designer chops, as Kansas City is bottom five in rushing defense success rate and EPA. Travis Etienne remains a boom/bust runner, but is averaging 6 yards per carry, while Bhayshul Tuten remains one of the most consistently successful rushers in the league. I expect Cohen to use each early and often, and avoid putting Lawrence and the passing attack behind the chains vs a solid Chiefs passing defense. BTJ remains a bet-on-volume WR2 play, even in a tough matchup.
As for the Chiefs offense, the Jags do present a challenge, as they limit explosive passing plays and are lead the league in rushing defense success rate. However, that’s perfectly fine for Andy Reid, who’s called the third-highest PROE so far, and just saw return of Xavier Worthy spark the entire unit last week. It’s clear the Chiefs have no intention of simply slamming Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt into the line over and over for another season, and even against a solid Jags pass defense, I expect Mahomes to throw early and often, and to find success, and like Brashard Smith’s chances of seeing expanded usage in the passing game. While the Chiefs aren’t quite at full strength yet (two more weeks until Rashee Rice returns), Worthy’s speed changes the makeup of the offense and makes life much easier for the slew of veteran role players they have around them. I expect a more competitive game than the market, but after what the Chiefs showed last week, it’s hard to bet against them.
Vikings vs Browns (London)
Market’s prediction: Vikings solid win
My prediction: Vikings solid win
OL advantage: None
DL advantage: Vikings pass rush, Browns pass rush
With by far the lowest total on the week, we aren’t exactly sending London our best offensive product. However, each of these defenses are absolute juggernauts, with contrasting styles. The Vikings play the most 2-high in the league, while the Browns use it the 5th-fewest. The Browns run man at the 5th-highest rate, while the Vikings play man at the 4th-lowest rate. These two styles have led to nearly polar opposite performances, with the Browns arguably the best run defense, and the Vikings arguably best passing defense, and each slightly below average at the other. That makes for a clear expected game script, as the Browns will almost certainly seek to limit their rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel making his first start against Brian Flores and his rotation nightmares. I expect the Browns to try to establish Quinshon Judkins early and often, after Kenneth Gainwell slaughtered this Minnesota defense a week ago. The Browns OL isn’t what it was a few years ago, but it’s still an above average unit, and Judkins is a solid RB2 this week. If possible, I’d avoid all of the Browns passing attack.
For the Vikings offense, despite missing offensive lineman, receivers, and their quarterback, they still have a slightly above average PROE, as Kevin O’Connell wants to attack via the air. With the Browns elite rushing defense on tap, I expect KOC to primarily take to the air. However, the Browns pass rush is fearsome, and the Vikings are likely to be without multiple offensive line starters again (though star left tackle Christian Darrisaw is set to play). It’s a risky path, but the Browns coverage is vulnerable, and Cleveland’s high man coverage rate will offer opportunities for Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison to generate big plays. I’m expecting the Browns to get some sacks and interceptions, but I like the Vikings chances of finding big plays through the passing game. I’m viewing Jefferson as a low-end WR1, Addison as a volatile WR3, and T.J. Hockenson as a bet on passing volume TE1. I’d prefer avoid Jordan Mason, who is probably a volatile, bet-on-a-touchdown low-end RB2 this week.
Clear Favorites (-7 or more)
Lions at Bengals
Market’s prediction: Lions dominate
My prediction: Lions dominate
OL advantage: Lions pass blocking
DL advantage: None
The Lions have the highest total on the week at 30, as they get a Bengals team that profiles as arguably the worst in the NFL, with below average metrics across the board. For the Lions, it’s a choose-your-adventure week, and with a -3.1 PROE so far, we know what Detroit wants to do. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are likely to have big weeks, and each is a strong start. There’s also a strong narrative play with Montygomery this week, as this a homecoming for him, and the first time his sister will be able to see him play since a horrible car accident. Dan Campbell is probably one of the most likely coaches to try and ensure his player has a strong game in such an emotional moment, and in an already-strong matchup, I’ll be rooting for Monty this week.
The Lions will probably also have a strong day through the air, facing the Bengals poor pass rush. Jared Goff should have plenty of time to throw, and should deliver strong efficiency, even if the volume is probably limited. Each of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam Laporta is a solid start, as bet on efficiency and touchdown plays.
For the Bengals offense, they’ve been horrible since the loss of Joe Burrow, but have faced arguably the two best pass defenses in that time. It’s almost certain to be better going forward, but it’s not an easy matchup vs the Lions, who are above average vs the pass and the run. Still, I want to bet on the talent of Ja’marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and I’m starting both in most leagues. Chase Brown remains on a bet on volume, and are sporting a league-worst run stop win rate, even if their overall run defense is solid. Finally, while I expect the Lions to comfortable dominate, I do want to note that if the Bengals are able to find more offensive success than expected, this game would be among my favorite for DFS, and I’m expecting minimal ownership on any Bengals.
Patriots at Bills
Market’s prediction: Bills dominate
My prediction: Bills dominate (but Maye makes it fun)
OL advantage: Patriots (run blocking)
DL advantage: None
The Bills remain an absolute wagon of a team, and are above average or better in every metric except stopping the run. That’s perfect in this matchup, as the Patriots are dead last in EPA per rush. Instead, the Patriots are relying on Drake Maye to lead one of the best passing attacks in football, and having a solid 4.5 PROE thus far. As 7.5 point underdogs, I Maye and the passing attack to again be the centerpiece this week. Stefon Diggs saw strong usage last week and delivered a 6-7-101-0 line. He’s a fringe WR2/3 this week, primarily as a bet on volume (and revenge). Hunter Henry is up to TE3 on the year and has 66 yards or a touchdown in three of four games so far. He’s a solid TE1. It’s tough to trust any Patriots running back, even in this solid matchup, as they continue to split time and have each struggled in their own aspects, increasing the chances that the committee approach continues.
For the Bills offense, they are now first in dropback EPA, and first in rushing EPA. Everyone is truly eating, with each of Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, and Keon Coleman having occasional big weeks so far. Each remains a solid low-end starting option as a spin-the-wheel bet on the Bills here. However, if they can do it, we know the Bills prefer running the ball, and James Cook has been incredible to start the year. Cook is still running hot (RB1 in production, RB7 in expected), as he’s taking advantage of a string of bad defense, but his usage is better than last year, and he profiles as an RB1 going forward, including this week.
I’m excited to watch this game, as it feels like the first real opportunity Drake Maye has to challenge early MVP-favorite Josh Allen, even if the Patriots remain a significantly inferior team.
Raiders at Colts
Market’s prediction: Colts win easily
My prediction: Colts win close
OL advantage: Raiders (pass blocking)
DL advantage: Raiders (pass rush)
Coming off a game they should have won, the Colts are 7-point favorites, in a home game vs a struggling Raiders team. The Colts are relying on the run to set up the pass, with Daniel Jones leading one of the most consistent passing offenses so far, albeit on limited volume. That gameplan might be difficult here, the Raiders run defense is among the league’s best. However, the Raiders are vulnerable against the pass, and I expect the Colts to use short passing and playaction to stay on-script. Tyler Warren has strong usage so far, including a goal-line rushing touchdown last week, and he should be a centerpiece of the gameplan as a quick dump-off option via playaction. Michael Pittman and Josh Downs still have been fully unleashed yet, as the Colts haven’t been forced to the air, but the tough matchup elevates my interest in each this week. Even in a tough schematic matchup, Jonathan Taylor is a 7-point home favorite, and remains a strong RB1.
As for the Raiders, Geno Smith and the passing game have struggled immensely, as Brock Bowers knee’ injury continues to hamper the unit. Because of that, the Raiders have fully shifted to a run-first offense, and they get a poor Colts rushing defense this week. Ashton Jeanty finally shined in a great matchup last week, and I’m expecting him to be the focal point of the offense again vs the Colts, despite the Raiders poor run blocking. Jeanty’s receiving usage also ticked up last week, and I’ll be monitoring his ownership in DFS, as a potential pivot off similarly-priced options.
Ultimately, the Raiders match up well, and I like their chances of forcing the Colts to play left-handed (less early rushes) in a way we haven’t seen yet. I think they force a close game here, though I still expect the Colts to squeak out a win.
Titans at Cardinals
Market’s prediction: Cardinals dominate
My prediction: Cardinals solid win
OL advantage: Cardinals (run blocking)
DL advantage: Cardinals (pass rush and run defense)
The Cardinals have a strong run defense, but are relatively mediocre in every other metric thus far. Luckily for them, they have a Titans team that is likely to fire their coach soon. The Titans are poor on defense overall, but are particularly susceptible to the run, which made Woody Marks predictably look like a star behind a bad Texans offensive line. We don’t know which Cardinals running back will be the lead back, but if I’m playing one, it would be Michael Carter, as he seems most likely to lead the rushing element of the offense. For the passing game, it’s a solid spot for Kyler Murray, Marvin Harrison, and Trey McBride, and the Cardinals do remain one of the passing-heaviest teams in the league. That concentration and volume makes them solid starts each week, including this one.
For the Titans and Cam Ward, they finally get an end to the murderers’ row of pass defenses. The Cardinals have a strong run defense, so Tony Pollard is probably set for another low-efficiency week, but his volume keeps him in the low RB2 range. It’s hard to have faith in Ward and the passing attack, but this is the easiest matchup they’ve had thus far. Elic Ayomanor earned seven targets last week, as Calvin Ridley remains dinged up. Ayomanor is a high-upside stash at minimum, and is a viable WR3/flex fill-in this week.
Toss-up Games (-3 to +3)
Commanders at Chargers
Market’s prediction: Chargers close win
My prediction: Commanders close win
OL advantage: Commanders (pass blocking)
DL advantage: Commanders (run defense)
Given the impending return of Jayden Daniels and the loss of Chargers star left tackle Joe Alt, I’m surprised the Chargers are favored by this much, as it feels more like a coin flip to me. For the Commanders, they have a pass blocking advantage to help ease Daniels back, even though he’ll again be without Terry McLaurin this week. The Chargers have a strong passing defense, but the Commanders are a bit of a unique threat, as Deebo Samuel’s YAC ability and Daniels scrambling could pose challenges for the Chargers schematically. The Commanders also have a strong rushing game, facing a mediocre Chargers run defense. Ultimately, I like the Commanders chance of finding success on offense.
As for the Chargers offense, the story is the offensive line. Justin Herbert and his crew of skill guys are all quite talented, but pressure told the story last week, as the Giants were often able to disrupt timing and move Herbert off of his spot. The Commanders have a solid run defense, so the weight of the offense will again rest on the shoulders of Hebert, though a growing receiving role keeps Omarion Hampton a strong RB2. At minimal, he and each of Quentin Johnston, Keenan Allen, and Ladd McConkey should see strong volume. And, if the Chargers can protect him, it’s easy to see another strong passing day for the Chargers. This is a fun matchup, and I expect it to be a back and forth affair, but ultimately want to bet on the Commanders advantage in the trenches leading to victory.
Cowboys at Jets
Market’s prediction: Cowboys close win
My prediction: Cowboys solid win
OL advantage: Cowboys (run blocking)
DL advantage: None
This is a potential explosion spot for the passing games, as each defense is bottom three in defensive dropback EPA. For the Cowboys, I expect they’ll look to attack via the air early and often, but will want to maintain balance, given their league-leading rushing success rate so far. Dak Prescott and George Pickens are an appealing stack, as the Jets run man coverage at top-ten rate, offering big-play opportunities. Jake Ferguson remains a strong volume-based play at tight end. Javonte Williams is delivering as a consistent runner that keeps the offense on track, and even facing a solid Jets run defense, he’s an RB2.
For the Jets offense, they face a Cowboys defense that is bad across the board, but especially so against the pass. Still, given the Jets league-low PROE so far, they’ll look to attack on the ground first. Breece Hall is poised for a strong week, and if the usage consolidates with Braelon Allen injured, Hall could deliver a monster performance. Garrett Wilson and Justin Fields should also find success, and if the Jets are pushed, each is likely to have a strong game. I’ll be monitoring the ownership of this game for DFS, as there are multiple ways to play it.
Dolphins at Panthers
Market’s prediction: Dolphins close win
My prediction: Panthers close win
OL advantage: Panthers (run blocking)
DL advantage: None
The Panthers have been better than perception so far, hovering around the league average in most metrics. On offense, they face a Dolphins defense that is contention for worst in the NFL, which includes a 58% passing success rate that is nearly 5% worse than any other team. The Panthers have been roughly neutral in PROE so far, but Bryce Young and Tetairoa McMillan should see strong efficiency here, and the level of volume will determine just how good the day is. On the ground, the Panthers have a run blocking advantage, as Rico Dowdle is set to fill in for Chuba Hubbard. Dowdle hasn’t been good so far, but in a great matchup like this, is a solid RB2 fill-in.
For the Dolphins offense, they’ll have to acclimate to life without Tyreek Hill. The Panthers are weaker against the run than the pass, so De’von Achane is probably the centerpiece of the offense this week, and going forward. Achane has been close to a few monster plays lately, and his reception volume will probably be amongst the league’s best going forward. He’s an RB1. Jaylen Waddle is set to fill the top receiver role, and he should see strong volume at a minimum. Waddle is a player I’ve come full circle on, as he’s seemingly been both over and under hyped in his career. For now, I think he’s probably slightly undervalued, as he and Achane probably consolidate most of the volume. Malik Washington and Darren Waller are at least plausible names as bye-week fill-in options.
Giants at Saints
Market’s prediction: Saints close win
My prediction: Saints solid win
OL advantage: None
DL advantage: None
If nothing else, there should be lots of plays in this game, as each team is among the top 10 in plays run, and the Saints are maintaining their league-leading pace. On offense, the Saints refuse to be moved off of their rushing heavy attack, even when consistently trailing. With the Giants league-worst rushing defense on tap, Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller (who flashed on added volume last week) should have strong days. Chris Olave is still generating lots of expected points, but failing to convert them. Still, some regression is almost certain and he’s a WR2. Rashid Shaheed gets a schematic upgrade this week, as the Giants play lots of man coverage, and one deep shot if often all he needs.
For the Giants, I also expect them to lean into the run, as the Saints are worse vs the run, and the Giants are now without Malik Nabers. Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo have each flashed in their young careers, and should make for a fun offense to watch at minimum. Darius Slayton and Wan’dale Robinson are viable WR3/fill-ins, as is Theo Johnson, as the passing volume has to be distributed somehow. Ultimately, I like the Saints chances of delivering their best offensive game yet, and like them to win.
Texans at Ravens
Market’s prediction: Texans close win
My prediction: Ravens close win
OL advantage: None
DL advantage: None
The absence of Lamar Jackson sucks the air out of this matchup, as it’s now Cooper Rush set to take on a strong Texans pass defense. The Ravens have played slowly all year, and I expect them to heavily pivot towards the run in this game, as the Texans are much better against the pass than the rush. Derrick Henry should serve as the focal point and probably will have success vs a weak Texans run defense. I’m downgrading the entire passing offense, as less volume and less efficiency are probable, and the return of Isiah Likely weakens the target floor for Zay Flowers and especially Mark Andrews.
For the Texans offense, they made the most of their easy matchup vs the Titans last week, and this Ravens banged up defense is nearly as bad. I expect Houston to attempt to establish newly found savior Woody Marks, who can probably deliver another solid efficiency game and make himself a great sell high candidate. Nico Collins remains the centerpiece of the passing game, and remains on low-end WR1, even on less passing volume than he deserves. As I’ve written, Christian Kirk and Dalton Schultz are viable starters based on volume.
Overall, I expect a slow, methodical game from both teams, with lots of rushes and field goal attempts, a la the early 2000s. I’ll take the Ravens to win as an underdog, mostly as a bet on John Harbaugh finding a way to keep his team in the playoff race.
Pace
Fast Pace Matchups
Saints-Giants: Combined neutral pace = 51.6 seconds
Seahawks-Bucs: 54.3 seconds
Vikings-Browns: 55.4 seconds
Slow Pace Matchups
Ravens-Texans: 61.9 seconds
Eagles-Broncos: 59.9 seconds
Bills-Patriots: 59.3 seconds
Pass Rate Over Expectation
High PROE Matchups
Chiefs-Jaguars: Combined PROE = 14.0
Chargers-Commanders: 12.6
Cardinals-Titans: 6.9
Low PROE Matchups
Saints-Giants: Combined PROE: -4.5
Seahawks-Bucs: -2.9
Lions-Bengals: -0.9
OL/DL Mismatches
Pass rush
Broncos (vs Eagles)
Raiders (vs Colts)
Seahawks (vs Bucs)
Bucs (vs Seahawks)
Cardinals (vs Titans)
Vikings (vs Browns)
Browns (vs Vikings) - Vikings likely to miss three OL starters
Run defense
Cardinals (vs Titans)
Commanders (vs Chargers)
Pass blocking
Cowboys (vs Jets)
Raiders (vs Colts)
Cardinals (vs Titans)
Commanders (vs Chargers)
Lions (vs Bengals)
Jaguars (vs Chiefs)
Run blocking
Panthers (vs Dolphins)
Patriots (vs Bills)
Jaguars (vs Chiefs)
Pick Tracking
New this year, I’m also picking each game and assigning confidence levels to it, as I’m in a pool of 50 people or so. My general strategy is to mostly follow chalk early, but winners are paid out each week, so there is some incentive for picking some upsets or adjusting confidence to actually have some takes, vice just following the spread.
Season Results: 47-18, 428 points (max 544) - 79% conversion rate (3rd in pool)
Week One: 14-2, 125 points (max 136) - 92% conversion rate
Week Two: 12-4, 112 points (max 136) - 82% conversion rate
Week Three: 10-7, 96 points (max 136) - 71% conversion rate
Week Four: 11-5, 95 points (max 136) - 70% conversion rate
For week five, my biggest stands vs the market are:
Commanders over Chargers (underdog pick)
Ravens over Texans (underdog pick)
Panthers over Dolphins (underdog pick)
Week Five Picks (1 = least confident, 16 = most confident)
Commanders over Chargers
Ravens over Texans
Panthers over Dolphins
Saints over Giants
Cowboys over Jets
Vikings over Browns
Chiefs over Jags
Seahawks over Bucs
Broncos over Eagles
Colts over Raiders
Cardinals over Titans
Rams over 49ers
Bills over Patriots
Lions over Bengals
That’s it for the week five edition of Metrics and Matchups. See you all for my Final Thoughts on Sunday morning!
I have Juwan Johnson who is questionable to play, Fannin is available but he plays in the early London game.....would you just play Fannin or wait on Johnson news? if he's out next highest option on waivers would be Mason Taylor.....