Final Thoughts: Week 4

Final Thoughts reviews Thursday Night Football, covers the latest injury and weather news, analyzes difficult start/sit decisions, and usually talks through some DFS considerations.

Thursday Night Football

Seahawks-Cardinals delivered a patented NFC West classic, with the Seahawks racing to an early lead via Cardinals miscues before some questionable coaching decisions allowed Kyler Murray to do his typical fourth quarter craziness and tie the game, which was followed by a special teams error leading to an easy Seahawks game-winning drive. Truly a patented Thursday Night Football and NFC West classic.

As someone who has rostered Murray often in home leagues, it was such an on brand hate watch for three quarters, followed by the thrill of watching Kyler zoom around and make plays late. Marvin Harrison was able to salvage his night with a contested touchdown catch late and he remains a talented, albeit limited player. The WR1 ceiling for Harrison is unlikely to materialize this year, but he’s still a fine starting option most weeks. Trey McBride delivered another ho-hum volume game, but didn’t score this week. Still, at the volatile tight end position, McBride’s role is among the best. Trey Benson didn’t deliver a strong production, but he was efficient and a clear lead back, including 5 receptions. He probably isn’t delivering high-end RB1 weeks, but he should be a viable RB2 going forward.

On the Seahawks side, Kenneth Walker took over the lead back role, delivering 20 touches for 110 scoreless yards. Zach Charbonnet vultured the touchdown, but was inefficient again. The Seahawks want to run outside zone, and Walker is simply a better fit for that. Charbonnet does offer some tough inside running skills, and I expect him to continue to play, but it’s obvious Walker is both better and better-suited for how they want to play. Walker is an RB2 going forward, with Charbonnet a strong handcuff that is startable in desperate situations. For the passing game, it simply remains the Jaxon Smith-Njigba show, even despite a mediocre 4-79-0 effort here. The Seahawks strong rushing preference will slow him some weeks, but JSN is a very good receiver playing with both weak target competition and in an offense that uses personnel groupings to boost his volume. Sam Darnold delivered his third straight solid performance and remains a viable QB2 in superflex.

Recommendations

• Buy: Trey Benson, Trey McBride (lack of strong production might open a small window)

• Hold: Zach Charbonnet, JSN, Sam Darnold, Kyler Murray, Marvin Harrison, Kenneth Walker

• Sell: Cooper Kupp

Sunday Football

Injury Considerations

In this section, expect a short list of the injured fantasy players, as well as my assessment of the likelihood that they play. I also include some team specific considerations when those are relevant.

Week Four:

QBs:

• Baker Mayfield - questionable (95% to play)

• Jayden Daniels - out

RBs:

• D’Andre Swift - questionable (95% to play)

• Chuba Hubbard - questionable (95% to play)

• Jaylen Warren - questionable (90% to play)

• Jacory Croskey-Merrit - questionable (80% to play)

WRs:

• Ricky Pearsall - questionable (90% to play)

• Jajuan Jennings - questionable (80% to play)

• Tetairoa McMillan - questionable (90% to play)

• Chris Godwin - questionable (85% to play)

• Davante Adams - questionable (80% to play)

• Terry McLaurin - out

TEs:

• Colston Loveland - questionable (10% to play)

Weather Considerations

As you might have guessed, I am not a meteorologist. However, there are some occasions where weather impacts my start/sit decisions, or DFS considerations. My process for accounting for this to usually look at Kevin Roth’s analysis here, and via NFLweather.com, before breaking it down into a watch vs warning methodology to get a quick handle on it.

Weather Watch - monitoring, but no knock to projection

• Jaguars at 49ers (5% chance of rain)

Weather Warning - small knock to projection

• Eagles at Bucs (33% chance of thunderstorms, 10mph+ wind possible)

• Jets at Dolphins (28% chance of thunderstorms, 10mph+ wind possible)

My Start/Sit Decisions

In this section, I’ll provide the tougher start/sit decisions I’m making, and why I’m doing it. I’ll also keep a running count on these over the course of the year. My goal for these start/sit decisions is to be 50% or better, as most of these are coinflips (or worse) in projections.

Season Tracker: 8 correct, 6 neutral, 2 wrong - 80%

• Week 1: 50% - 1 correct, 2 neutral, 1 wrong

• Week 2: 100% - 4 correct, 1 neutral, 0 wrong

• Week 3: 75% - 3 correct, 3 neutral, 1 wrong

Week 4 Start/Sits

T.J. Hockenson > Harold Fannin

For the second straight week, the projections say to start Hockenson over Fannin, and I’m going to trust them again. The Vikings offense showed life last week, as the return of Christian Darrisaw and some solid quarterback play from Carson Wentz led to better production for Hockenson. In week four, he gets a strong schematic matchup, leading FF Dataorama to include him on this players who could smash article. Fannin is a decent matchup too, and I’m fine starting him as a low-end TE1 in most leagues.

J.K. Dobbins > Jordan Mason

Mason over Dobbins was the correct call last week, but I’m flipping it this week. Mason and the Vikings are 2.5 favorites over the Steelers, and they have a run blocking advantage, so Mason is again a strong play this week. However, Dobbins is in an even better spot, with a greater run blocking advantage and the Broncos are 7.5 point favorites, increasing his chances of a favorable script.