Metrics and Matchups: Previewing Week 2

Welcome to Metrics and Matchups, where I’ll detail each of the key metrics for each team, and analyze each matchup for this week. For readers of The Sketch last year, you’ll recognize the chart below, which is color coded to show each team’s strength and weakness. Below that, I’ll analyze each matchup for the week, provide this week’s fast and slow paced games, provide DL and OL mismatches, and pick each game using confidence levels. Let’s get to it.

My other Week Two articles:

• Waiver Targets for Week 2

• Trade Talk: Week Two

• Final Thoughts: Week 1

Week 2 Data

Data courtesy of Fantasy Points, ESPN, Rotoviz, and RBSDM.

Each week, this section will include analysis on each team’s projected points, pace, and matchup for their upcoming game.

Totals

Each week, I break matchups down into Slight Favorites, Clear Favorites, and Toss-up games, as those teams (that also have high O/Us) are who we want to target most.²

Slight Favorites (-3.5 to -6.5)

It’s a large week for slight favorites, with six of those matchups coming on the DFS main slate.

The Bengals-Jaguars game stands out with a 49 point total, and each team had a positive pass rate over expected (PROE) in week one. Each team had a strong pass rush in week one, and the Bengals suffered a poor pass blocking performance against a talented Browns unit. Still, I want to take the long view with Joe Burrow and company, and I’m certainly not sitting any of their primary weapons. On the Jaguars side, I expect a trailing script, which means more Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter targets (assuming his extra snaps on defense don’t come at the expense of his offensive ones). Neither had a strong week one, but that was largely due to a combination of drops (12% in week one, 3rd-highest) and mediocre accuracy from Trevor Lawrence (19th in catchable throw %). If the Jaguars passing game plays better, this games has the makings of a shootout.

In the second tier of slight favorites, we have the Cardinals, Bills, Lions, Cowboys, and Chargers. While the O/U isn’t as high as the Bengals-Jaguars matchup, each of these teams has a strong 25+ implied team total, and an explosive offense.

The Chargers and Cowboys are the two offenses I like the most out of this tier, as the Chargers had a massive 13.5 PROE in week one, fully giving Justin Herbert the keys to the kingdom. A weak Raiders pass blocking unit vs a Chargers pass rush that performed well in week one is a potential issue (as is the questionable status of Brock Bowers), but I’d fire up all of the Chargers primary starters this week, and Quentin Johnston is a low-end WR3/flex play. The Cowboys slow offensive start was expected, but had much more to do with self-inflicted errors than the Eagles defense. I remain extremely bullish on Dak Prescott and the Cowboys passing game, and am looking to find ways to get George Pickens into my lineup. I expected the Giants to have a strong defensive line, but they were horrid vs the Commanders, while the Cowboys looked like a solid unit. I don’t have strong confidence in either of those metrics yet, but there’s no concerning data for the Cowboys either.

Each of the Cardinals and Panthers look to have a rushing advantage based on their week one numbers, and the Panthers seem likely to lean into it, given their slow pace and rushing-heavy attack last week. However, the Cardinals actually 5th in PROE (+10%). I like each of Kyler Murray, Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison, and James Conner this week, and the condensed nature of the offense makes it more predictable. It’ll probably require an improved game from Bryce Young, or both explosiveness and efficiency from Chuba Hubbard, but there are paths to a shootout here.

The Lions were putrid in week one, and I’m not buying it was a newly vaunted Packers defense as much as the market. Dan Campbell didn’t like the question, but it’s simply true that the Lions used less easy buttons in week one than they have in the past. That is a concern going forward, but it’s unlikely to matter this week, as the Bears defense that was dead last in pass rush win rate and 24th in run stop win rate vs the Vikings (who were starting their backup left tackle). The Lions struggled a bit (8th in PBWR, 23rd in RBWR), but this is a get right spot for the whole offense. I’m starting each of Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam Laporta, and Jameson Williams where I have them, and David Montgomery is a fine low-end RB2/flex play.

On the Bears side, I recently saw the Caleb Williams-Russell Westbrook comparison made, and now I can’t get it out of my head. Caleb will make one of the best throws of the week, and follow it up with three straight misses. He was dead last in off-target rate in week one (28%). Still, Brian Flores probably had a lot to do with that, given Caleb only threw to his first-read 51% of the time (3rd-lowest). I’m leaving the light on for Caleb and the Bears, and this game could make for a fun contrarian game stack in DFS.

As for the Bills-Jets, I like this game less than the others, simply because of the style of each offense. Each team was below average in PROE, with the Jets playing at a glacially slow pace last week. While each team has offensive talent, play volume is the primary concern, and we’ll need another week of outlier efficiency for this game to find a ceiling. I’d prefer to avoid starting any of the non-stars in this game, and unless it is very low-owned, will probably go elsewhere in DFS.

Clear Favorites (-7 or more)

One team stands alone in the clear favorites category, as the Ravens are a whopping 11.5 point favorites vs the Browns. The Browns have a strong pass rush, but the Ravens have one of the best pass blocking units of week one, along with Lamar Jackson to help navigate any pressure. Lamar, Derrick Henry, and Zay Flowers are all in smash spots this week, while Mark Andrews is a fine low-end tight end option. On the Browns side, expect another week of plentiful pass attempts, as the Joe Flacco PPR scam combines with a huge negative script. That’s great news for rookies Dylan Sampson and Harold Fannin, as it is for Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku, even if touchdowns will probably be hard to come by.