Final Thoughts: Week 1

including key takeaways from Eagles-Cowboys and Chargers-Chiefs

Welcome to the first in-season article of Reducing Uncertainty. As I laid out in my NFL Season Content Plan, I expect to write four reoccurring pieces each week.

One of those is a Final Thoughts piece each Sunday morning, that will cover the latest injury and weather news, analyze difficult start/sit decisions, and usually talk through some DFS considerations. It’ll also occasionally cover takeaways from Thursday Night Football (and for week one, Friday night football).

Let’s get started.

Thursday Night Football

The Eagles and Cowboys delivered an awesome first half, followed by an extremely disappointing second half that was at least partially due to a weather delay. Still, it was a fun overall game, with the Cowboys looking like the better team throughout much of it.

On the Cowboys side, my main takeaway was that the Cowboys are poised for a strong offensive season, with a path to a ‘Bengals South’ type of outcome. Dak Prescott was phenomenal, despite a weak box score due to more than 100+ yards of drops from his pass-catchers, including at least one touchdown. Ceedee Lamb was deployed all over the formation and seemingly got open at will. George Pickens filled the volatile X receiver role, earning a deep downfield pass interference call (which he arguably should have caught), and almost drawing another pass interference on an end zone target. Jake Ferguson and the backup tight ends each drew some patented tight window targets from Dak, including a drop from Ferguson that should have been a touchdown. As I wrote in Supercharged Start, buying Dak and the Cowboys after a weak week one box score was the plan, and I’d love to acquire any of the passing weapons today if there’s a discount.

As for the running game, the production was there, with Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders combining for 100 yards and two touchdowns, but the juice was not. Neither flashed much tackle-breaking or force missed tackle ability, with Sanders getting got from behind by a linebacker to prevent a long touchdown, before he ultimately fumbled. While a week one inactive status is obviously not ideal for Jaydon Blue, I’d like to hold him in season long rosters, and I don’t think he’s anywhere close to drawing dead in best ball. He was priced as a contingent bet for most of the summer, and I still view him as a strong one going forward. It may take longer than we want, but he still offers the most explosiveness of any of these three backs.¹

Meanwhile, the Cowboys defense looks set for a bend-but-don’t-break style, which reflects an understanding of the lack of talent they have at all three levels. While I don’t expect the defense to be quite as bad as the Bengals have been, it’s hard to envision the Cowboys defense as a top half unit, leaving potential shootouts on the table each week.

As far as the Eagles, it was a strong “they are who we thought they were game”, as they ran a similar style of offense as they ended 2024. Saquon Barkley is the focal point of the offense, with A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert set for secondary roles. The Cowboys did their best to limit any potential deep passing, playing zone on every single snap, and with Brown and Smith plausibly not 100% recovered from hamstring injuries, Hurts and the Eagles were happy to take what the defense gave them. Assuming health, better days are ahead for Brown and Smith, as the zone coverage rate defenses play against them can’t get any higher. However, they were round two and five picks because the Eagles run-first approach and Hurts’ rushing ability leads to weekly volatility, and we saw the low side of that here.

Recommendations:

• Buy: Cowboys passing game

• Hold: All the Eagles, Javonte Williams, Jaydon Blue

• Sell: None

Friday Night Football

The Chargers and Chiefs also delivered an exciting game, with the Chargers finally winning a one-score game, and the Chiefs finally losing one. Starting with the Chiefs, the Xavier Worthy injury was a huge bummer, as his loss (somewhere between 3 weeks and the whole season) really places a cap on the Chiefs passing upside.

Despite the long touchdown, Travis Kelce only earned four targets in a game with 39 Mahomes pass attempts. His advanced metrics fell off a cliff last year, and he probably cannot serve as the primary (or maybe even a strong secondary) option of the passing game anymore. That leaves Hollywood Brown as the Chiefs best receiving weapon, with JuJu Smith-Schuster and Tyquan Thornton in supporting role. Mahomes is so good that he can probably make it work (as he continues to run the reverse Tom Brady career arc), but we’re almost certainly not getting the high-flying Chiefs offenses of the past until at least mid-season.

Yet, the Chiefs are also bereft of talent at running back, electing for a three-way split between washed Kareem Hunt, washed Isiah Pacheco, and the exciting but unproven rookie Brashard Smith. It’ll be difficult for the Chiefs to rely on the run game with those options, so Mahomes probably will have to shoulder the burden, even to a greater extent than last year. Smith does have an interesting opportunity here, as he could get extra work as the primary read or a bump in designed targets. The Chiefs probably prefer to work him in more gradually, but with Worthy and Rice likely out, they may not have another choice.

On the Chargers side, the vibes could not be any better. Let me be one of the first to put Justin Herbert’s name forward as a potential MVP candidate. His reputation has been unfairly maligned the last few years, but he finally looks poised to have the health and supporting cast to deliver on his immense talent. The Chargers showed zero fear of a talented and complex Chiefs defense, throwing at a 13.5% pass rate over expected.

With their strong investment in building a deep and diverse receiver room this offseason, the Chargers are (finally) giving Herbert the keys to the kingdom. If we were re-drafting today, he would probably be alongside Joe Burrow in my rankings as QB5. As far as the receiving options, Ladd McConkey had the quiet day, with 6-74-0, but this was still a huge positive for him. Quentin Johnston got one schemed touchdown, and Keenan Allen earned the most targets (10 to Ladd’s 9), but Ladd is still easily the best separator of the group, and the Chargers high passing rate will keep his floor high. Bigger games are coming. Johnston and Keenan probably aren’t comfortable starts, but as long as the Chargers are throwing at a high rate, each is perfectly fine as a flex/WR3 play.

As for the running game, Omarion Hampton had strong usage, but a weak performance, delivering a negative rushing yards over expectation. I expect those numbers to converge in the coming week, with Hampton efficiency increasing, while Najee Harris plays slightly more than he did this week. Regardless, Hampton looks set to have a lead role on a very good offense, with the one negative being that he probably doesn’t see many targets. He probably doesn’t have legendary upside this season, but his week one was still mostly positive.

Recommendations:

Buy: Herbert, Ladd, Hollywood Brown, Brashard Smith, Rashee Rice

Hold: Keenan Allen, QJ

Sell: Mahomes, Pacheco

Sunday Football

Injury Considerations

In this section, expect a short list of the injured fantasy players, as well as my assessment of the likelihood that they play. I also include some team specific considerations when those are relevant.

QBs:

• None

RBs:

• Christian McCaffrey - questionable (80% to play)

• Roschon Johnson - questionable (35% to play)

WRs:

• Darnell Mooney - questionable (70% to play)

• Jayden Reed - questionable (55% to play)

• Dontayvion Wicks - questionable (60% to play)

• Christian Kirk - out

TEs:

Isiah Likely - out

The Ravens are missing both tight end Isiah Likely and fullback Patrick Ricard. The Ravens have used more heavy personnel against a Bills team that likes to use extra defensive backs as much as possible. The Ravens will either have to rely more on their backup heavy personnel options or use a greater percentage of receivers and running backs. I expect less tight end targets than usual, and probably would give a slight boost to running back and receiver targets shares.

The Patriots are missing two cornerbacks, including star Christian Gonzalez. Man coverage is probably slightly less viable for them this week, though it’s difficult to say who on the Raiders would benefit most from that. I’d give a slight boost to each of Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers.

Weather Considerations

As you might have guessed, I am not a meteorologist. However, there are some occasions where weather impacts my start/sit decisions, or DFS considerations. My process for accounting for this to usually look at Kevin Roth’s analysis here, and via NFLweather.com, before breaking it down into a watch vs warning methodology to get a quick handle on it.

Weather Watch - monitoring, but no knock to projection

• Steelers at Jets (possible rain)

• Panthers at Jaguars (possible rain)

• Titans at Broncos (possible rain)

Weather Warning - small knock to projection

• Raiders at Patriots (probable rain)

My Start/Sit Decisions

In this section, I’ll provide the tougher start/sit decisions I’m making, and why I’m doing it. I’ll also keep a running count on these over the course of the year.

Michael Penix over Justin Fields

I’m going with Penix here, as the vibes around the Jets offensive performance in the preseason were quite bad, they’ve lost a solid offensive lineman since then, and the Steelers passing defense was both solid last year and knows Fields well. With Penix in a home and dome game against the Bucs, I’m breaking the tiebreaker in his favor amidst similar projections.

RJ Harvey over Jerome Ford and David Montgomery

While there’s a strong dose of input volatility around each of these guys, Harvey is probably the lead rushing back on the 8.5 point favorite Broncos, and I feel most comfortable with his game script. I also want to bet on Sean Payton and the Broncos delivering more high-value touches than the Browns, and it’s at least plausible Jahmyr Gibbs operates in more of a clear lead-back role than Montgomery this year. Tough decision, but I’m starting Harvey, despite Ford’s projection edge.

Josh Downs over Michael Pittman

Close in projections, but unsurprisingly, I want to bet on Downs, who I view as the superior talent. The Dolphins are also starting a rookie fourth round pick at cornerback, which is a matchup we have to be excited about for Downs.

Zay Flowers over Tetairoa McMillan

McMillan has the ADP edge, and I like him a lot this week. Still, Zay doesn’t have to compete with Isiah Likely this week, and is in a potential shootout in a matchup vs the Bills. I’m also starting Lamar in this league and am projected to lose, so breaking a tie in his favor for the upside of a Lamar-Zay explosion game.

DFS Decisions

Week one is a play it before you see it week, and ownership looks to be very spread out. That usually means it’s a tough week to build contrarian lineups, as the leverage plays are less obvious. Still, there are a few leverage spots I like, including the Colts-Dolphins game, Trey McBride and Chris Olave, and former cornerback Travis Hunter.

The Chalk

• QB: Trevor Lawrence (15%), Joe Burrow (11%), Jayden Daniels (11%)

• RB: Chase Brown (30%), Devon Achane (25%), Christian McCaffrey (22%)

• WR: Brian Thomas (20%), Emeka Egbuka (20%), Ja’marr Chase (20%), Tet McMillan (20%)

• TE: Tucker Kraft (15%), David Njoku (15%)

• DST: Steelers (12%), Jets (10%), Broncos (10%)

My Pivots

• QB: Joe Flacco, Daniel Jones, Drake Maye, Kyler Murray

• RB: Bijan Robinson, Kenneth Walker, Jaylen Warren

• WR: Travis Hunter, Josh Downs, Tyreek Hill, Chris Olave

• TE: Trey McBride, Brenton Strange, Harold Fannin

• DST: Texans, Panthers, Dolphins

Favorite Game Stacks

• Colts vs Dolphins

• Jaguars vs Panthers

• Bengals vs Browns

Lineup starters

• Daniel Jones + Downs + one or both of Achane/Tyreek

• Trevor Lawrence + Travis Hunter + BTJ, Dyami Brown, or Brenton Strange + Tetairoa McMillan or Chuba Hubbard

• Joe Burrow + Ja’marr Chase + Harold Fannin

• Kyler Murray + one of Trey McBride or Marvin Harrison + Chris Olave

Favorite One-offs

• RB: Jonathan Taylor, James Conner

• WR: Travis Hunter, Chris Olave, Josh Downs, Jakobi Meyers

• TE: Harold Fannin, Trey McBride, Brock Bowers

1. I’ll also note that I was impressed with the Cowboys run game playcalling, as they used at least three trap runs to take advantage of an aggressive and talented Eagles DL. Javonte had roughly 20 yards on those three rushes, which had little to do with him, and more to do with the scheme. That’s a positive for the overall offense, and adds appeal to Blue’s upside cases as well.