Building the Dream Auction Team to win Best Ball Mania

Taking advantage of the 4th-6th round sweet spot

Jun 29, 2025

As I’ve written, the late 4th to early 6th round is difficult for me, as there are a slew of guys I really like that all go in that range. Meanwhile, the 3/4 turn and 6/7 turn feel like deserts without even the smallest oasis nearby. While the ranges may be different for you, I’m sure you have similar areas that create these feelings for you.

With this article, I’m removing the constraints of the linear snake draft, and simply focusing on building the team of my dreams.

To do this, I’ll use Underdog ADP and Establish the Run’s draft capital, which I’ve adjusted to reflect a typical auction budget of $200. I’ll still draft a full 18 player team, with the same number of starters, and I’m not going to build a typical stars-and-scrubs auction team that is unrealistic. My goal is the same, which is to build a team with the best chance to win a large gauntlet-style tournament like Best Ball Mania.

At the end, this should help illuminate which players I feel most strongly about, and enable us to focus on building better teams around them going forward.

Let’s get started.

My Must Haves

To no surprise, two players are locked in at their current ADP/Draft Capital costs, Josh Downs (ADP 83, cost $13) and George Kittle (ADP 45, $21). As I’ve written numerous times, I view Downs and Kittle as the two best picks on the board, with each being about a round or so underpriced.1 I probably owe you guys a full individual bull case on each, but given I write/tweet about them in most of my work, I think you get the point. Draft each as much as possible.

After their selection, that leaves me with $166 to fill out the remaining 16 spots on my roster.

Completing Tight End ($166 left)

Since I have Kittle, let’s finish tight end before moving to other positions. As I’ve written, the low-end TE1s are historically cheap this year, despite many of them playing with elite quarterbacks that keep their weekly ceilings high.2 I’d be fine with most options in this range, but Dallas Goedert really stands out. Goedert is 31, which is a concern, but almost every other part of his profile is sterling. He finished second in Yards Per Route Run to Kittle last year, and was third in ESPN’s overall receiver rating at tight end. He was also third in Pat Kerrane’s Play Action Participation Ratio (PAPR), which is strongly correlated to a tight end’s ability to score touchdowns, which is obviously important on a 0.5ppr site like Underdog. The Eagles are also set for significant passing volume regression, probably in the range of six more passing attempts per game, which probably leads to an extra 1-2 targets per game for Goedert.

So, at (ADP 141, $4) let’s add Goedert to the squad and close out tight end.

Quarterback ($162 left)

As I’ve written and said this year, I love the QB window that stretches from the 8th round until round 14 or so. In most drafts, I want to draft two (or even three)3 stacked quarterbacks in that range. And if I was building this dream team in a few weeks, I’d likely end up with a 2/3 QB in-the-window team. However, there’s one elite quarterback that is still too good of a value to pass up, as he falls in that squarely in the the range that I love so much.

It’s Jalen Hurts.

Hurts is priced behind the rest of the elite quarterbacks for two reasons, neither of which makes sense to me. The primary reason is that people were (originally rightfully) concerned that the tush push would get banned, and Hurts would lose a few rushing touchdowns, weakening his floor and ceiling relative to the other elite QBs. Before the tush push vote was complete, I viewed him this 4/5 turn ADP as largely correct. However, the tush push is back for another year, erasing those concerns.

The other reason Hurts is because of his low passing volume last year. However, as I mentioned with Goedert, the Eagles are set for significant passing regression this year, which is obviously a good thing for Hurts. In 2024, the Eagles only trailed by a touchdown or more for 133 plays (third-lowest in the league), and in only four games (tied for the lowest of any team since 2017). In 2025, the Eagles will almost certainly have to play faster and pass more, boosting Hurts’ volume in multiple ways.

Simply put, Hurts should not be priced meaningfully cheaper (~15%) to Allen, Lamar, and Jayden Daniels, and multiple industry folks are projecting him ahead of those guys. I’ll add him to the squad and tack on correlation with Goedert for $20, bringing my current roster to this.

With Hurts in place, I want my second quarterback to be fairly cheap, which rules out anyone in the top 100 picks or so. However, once we cross pick 100, no single pick costs more than about 5% of our draft capital. While QBs with ADPs in the 115 range aren’t cheap, they aren’t that much more expensive than the QBs hovering just outside of the window, in the pick 150-180 range either (roughly $7 vs $2, or about a 2.5% difference in our auction budget).

For this reason, I’ll go with one of my favorite QBs in the window, Dak Prescott.

Similar to the tight ends in this range, the QBs are historically undervalued, as the Underdog market attempts to push pocket passer QBs past ADP from day one of the contest until at least early August (when more casual drafters arrive). Dak has been the rare exception to this, actually rising in ADP as drafters increase their confidence in his health and with the arrival of a strong second receiver in George Pickens.

Adding to Dak’s bull case is an extremely weak backfield and an coordinator likely to both play fast and throw often. While the offensive line is a concern4, if Dak has time, he probably leads one of the better and faster paced offenses in the league, with one of the better receiving corps in the league. I’ll add Dak for $7 to close out QB and move us to running back and the rest of receivers, with $135 left out of my original $200.

Wide Receiver ($135 left)

There’s some golden rules in best ball, including getting at least 4 wide receivers through seven rounds or so. My usual guideline is at least 5 receivers through 10 rounds, with the intent of drafting one every two rounds. Josh Downs fills one of those spots, as a 7/8 turn pick. So let’s narrow down on four other receivers in this range.

First up is George Pickens (ADP 50, $20).

Pickens is one of the best true X receivers in the league, finishing 24th in ESPN’s Open Score and 27th in YPPR last year, despite being negatively impacted by a limited offense with sub-par quarterback play. Pickens wins deep and at the catch point and, in this Cowboys offense, I expect him to play the Michael Gallup role from a few seasons ago. Gallup was a force multiplier, boosting Dak to a 23.4 PPG average over 4.5 seasons, which would’ve ranked as a top 4 QB in each of the last four seasons.

Additionally, while Gallup was a solid #2 option, he was never a true star, maxing out at a ESPN Receiver Rating of 57 in his best season (in which Dak averaged 25.4 points per game with a healthy Gallup, QB2 behind Lamar’s insane season).

While Pickens is stylistically similar, he’s a tier above Gallup, surpassing Gallup’s career best in two of his three seasons so far.

With this element of the passing attack restored, Dak and Pickens are poised to deliver spike weeks via long touchdowns that create weekly shootout potential.

After Pickens, I’ll also add three more 5th/6th round receivers, in Zay Flowers, Jaylen Waddle, and Chris Olave. The case for Flowers and Olave is quite simple, in that each is a locked in #1WR on his own team that is very talented (even if not quite elite). Waddle is coming off a down year, but I continue to view the Dolphins as underpriced given their performances in healthy Tua games. There’s also a chance Waddle is the Dolphins best passing weapon now, with Tyreek Hill suffering through recent decline and injury, and Jonnu Smith feasting on the worst aspects of their offense a year ago.

To close at receiver, I’ll add three options after pick 100, with Luther Burden, Jaylin Noel, and Romeo Doubs. Burden and Noel offer some of the widest range of outcomes of any player, as each could be as low as his teams’ #5 option on offense, but both are immensely talented players. Burden could feasibly be the Bears #1 option, with both film and quantitative analysts aligned on his talent. Noel is drafted as the Texans WR4, but he produced similarly to Jayden Higgins in college, completely outclassed him in Reception Perception (including a comp to Josh Downs), and is far more live to be the Texans WR2 than his 178 ADP implies. However, if Burden and Noel struggle, especially early, I want to fill that void, which brings me to Romeo Doubs.

As I’ve written at Reducing Uncertainty and on Twitter, I expect the Packers to throw much more this year, as injuries to Jordan Love forced them into a more conservative offense last year. While I’m in on Matthew Golden, he was far from a perfect prospect, and the Packers have shown zero willingness to play Jayden Reed in 2WR sets. That leaves Doubs set to start and draw targets in 2WR, especially early in the season. Doubs can serve as a solid chaperone to start the season, and it’s plausible he maintains a strong role all season in a more passing-heavy Packers offense. With receiver complete, that brings the team to this:

Running Back ($51 left)

In an alternate build where I didn’t draft both elite tight end and elite quarterback, I probably start here with a round two running back, as I like a lot of the guys in this range. Devon Achane was the RB1 in healthy Tua games, and the Dolphins re-made the interior of their offensive line. Jonathan Taylor was really good in the non-Anthony Richardson games, and Daniel Jones combination of mobility and relative short passing accuracy probably maintains the best of both worlds for Taylor. Bucky Irving was extremely efficient last year, which likely leads to increased volume this year, and Josh Jacobs rushing talent and volume consolidation skills are well-postured to succeed in one of best environments in the league.

However, this team’s path didn’t lead to any of those guys.

Instead, this team emphasized the new (and yet classic) zero RB window starting in round 5, with Kenneth Walker.

Walker’s outlook isn’t pristine, as Sam Darnold is a downgrade from Geno Smith. Similarly, while Walker flashed as a receiver the last two seasons (67th percentile RB YPPR in 2023 and 2024), new coordinator Klint Kubiak probably runs the ball more5, which limits Walker’s there. However, Walker’s rushing outlook is better.

Throughout Walker’s career, the Seahawks offensive line has never finished better than 24th in run block win rate, including 28th last year. However, the Seahawks added first-round rookie Grey Zabel6 to play left guard alongside standout left tackle Charles Cross. While the entire OL is probably not a strength, Walker should see better blocking on at least some of his runs. Additionally, Kubiak brings an outside zone scheme to Seattle that is ideal for Walker. Let’s add him as the RB1 for $18.

Following Walker is a round 5/6 turn pick in RJ Harvey. The signing of Dobbins impacted Harvey slightly, but not as much as I expected. That’s unfortunate, because he was shaping up to be a smash 6/7 turn pick. While Harvey’s median/floor outcomes are probably lower than most in this range, his upside outcomes are mouth-watering.

To start, nearly every piece of information we’ve received this offseason about Harvey has been bullish. He’s an explosive and consistent rusher, and he’s a quality receiver. A slew of NFL teams had him as a key target. The Broncos traded up to take him in the second round, in a historically deep running back class. The Broncos offensive line was one of the best last year, leading the league in run block win rate AND run block wins across the formation. And finally, Sean Payton is notorious for delivering high-end fantasy expected points (and real production) to his running backs.

Put simply, Harvey is an extremely good prospect, playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the league, behind one of the best playcallers at generating running back fantasy points. I’m happy to add him as my RB2 for $17.

In my RB3 and RB4 spots, I have Jaylen Warren and Bayshul Tuten, who offer a nice blend of floor and ceiling.

The case for Warren is a bet on his talent and an improved offense. With the selection of Kaleb Johnson, it’s unlikely Warren ever steps into the near-bellcow role many of us clamored for the last few seasons. However, Warren delivered a 97th percentile Open Score Rating last year on his way to 1.7 YPPR (66th percentile), despite playing with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. With Aaron Rodgers now in place, it’s likely Warren sees both a volume and efficiency improvement in the receiving game. Additionally, while Warren’s rushing efficiency fell off last year, he finished 3rd in rushing yards over expectation per attempt in 2023. If he is able to recover some of his rushing efficiency, the combination of his elite receiving ability and increased receiving volume probably makes him a solid spike week option at his ADP.

As for Tuten, he’s another wide range of outcomes player, not dissimilar to RJ Harvey, (and the Jaguars agree). Tuten isn’t quite the prospect of Harvey, his situation isn’t as good (Jaguars were 25th in run block win rate last year), and his competition is probably stronger, given the presence of both Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne. However, the market has factored that in, given Tuten costs $5 compared to Harvey’s $17. And like Harvey, Tuten’s upside outcomes are immense, as he could take on the lead back role in a Liam Cohen offense after seeing nearly this exact scenario play out with Bucky Irving a year ago. As my RB4, I love the upside Tuten brings to the team.

To close out RB, I like a balance of floor and ceiling. DJ Giddens was one of my favorite RBs before the draft, and I’m bullish on the Colts offense as a whole. While Giddens is unlikely to supplant Taylor, I don’t understand why he goes multiple rounds behind other contingent RBs like Tyler Allgeier, Isaac Guerendo, and Ray Davis, who he is plausibly already better than. In the event of a Taylor injury, Giddens would probably project as a mid-RB2, with the potential for RB1 performances.

As for the floor aspect, there are a few options in the last few rounds, with Austin Ekeler, Rico Dowdle, and Justice Hill all probably offering some production each week. However, I’ll be a bit more risky with this “floor” pick, and choose Keaton Mitchell. While Mitchell isn’t a lock to see playing time, he probably has some role. Mitchell was insanely good in his 2023 rookie year, averaging nearly 8 yards per carry. While that’s almost certain to regress, I’d be surprised if the Ravens didn’t want to start him with at least a small role, both to see what they had and to keep Henry fresh.

With running back wrapped up, that brings the final team to this.

Reviewing The Final Team

This 2-6-8-2 team is winning most weeks at quarterback and tight end, offering the elite onesie spike week upside that is often so valuable in the gauntlet weeks. At wide receiver, we’ve built a deep stable of early/mid round options, hitting both the 4 WRs through seven rounds and 5 WRs through 10 rounds benchmarks, and adding the combination of Doubs, Buden, and Noel that provides a balance of early season and late season production that’s correlated to both season long and playoff outcomes. AR RB, we’re poised to take advantage of the zero RB window, pairing two established backs with two of the highest upside rookie running backs, and two fun dart throws.

While the team is slightly off the ideal build identified in the Best Ball Manifesto, the deviations are for two elite onesie players that I view as considerably underpriced, so I’m happy to take a stand there.

As always, thanks for reading, and for those interested, I’ve laid out my second favorite build in the event that Hurts continues to rightfully rise in this footnote7

Reducing Uncertainty