Players I want more or less of in the first 100 picks

After my first 150 drafts, my player takes are solidifying until training camp and the preseason deliver additional information. I posted my June rankings update earlier this week, which includes my current exposure to each player through 150 drafts for paid subscribers. After reviewing those exposure levels, I’ve detailed below who I want more and less of the rest of this summer.

Guys I want more of in the first 100 picks

Rashee Rice

As a skeptic or Rice ahead of both this rookie and sophomore campaigns, I no longer have any questions about his ability to deliver high-end fantasy outcomes following the start to his 2024 season.

Through three games, Rice delivered an average of 8 catches for 96 yards and 0.67 touchdowns, or 17.6 half ppr PPG.

That would’ve ranked WR2 behind only Ja’marr Chase in 2024.

While he’s probably never going to be a truly elite receiver capable of lining up outside, that doesn’t really matter for his fantasy production. Assuming his role stays the same, Rice offers similar production to Amon Ra St. Brown at an ADP more than around cheaper. As long as he remains at or near the 2/3 turn, he’ll be my primary target there. I’d recommend getting your Rice exposure in ASAP, as he’s headed straight for the middle of the second round at a minimum.

Current exposure: 10%
Target exposure: 15%+

Kenneth Walker III

I’m not sure how I only have 6% of KW3 through 150+ drafts¹ on a half-ppr site, especially as I drafted 20% of him in the pre-NFL draft contests, but I will remedy it shortly. Walker is an elite rusher headed to outside zone scheme that fits his elite speed and one cut style perfectly (though it does not fit Zach Charbonnet well). While a limited receiving role and total passing volume probably limits his upside to below Legendary, I love both his median and ceiling outcomes at this price. He also falls in a range that calls for the last chance at an “Hero RB” build or the end of a “Double Hero” RB build, both of which I’m very into this year.

Current exposure: 6%
Target exposure: 12%+

Jalen Hurts and Jayden Daniels

I strongly prefer stacking my QBs in these top-heavy tournaments with gauntlet playoff week formats, and unfortunately, both Hurts and Daniels have been slight challenges with that so far. Daniels is the hardest, as he often goes just before I’m able to complete his stack with Terry McLaurin. However, there’s a broad industry consensus² that McLaurin goes too early, and it’s likely his ADP drops to the middle of the third round, which aligns perfectly with Daniels. In that case, the stack becomes quite appealing, as I view Daniels as a similar bet to Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. You can also pair it with a round one selection of Ceedee Lamb, or a round five selection of George Pickens, delivering week 17 correlation at roughly zero loss of an ADP value.

As for Hurts, my exposure rate has also suffered from a focus on stacking, especially before the final Tush Push ruling, as an unstacked Hurts losing 5+ rushing touchdowns was not appealing to me. However, with the Tush Push back for another year, Hurts belongs in the 4th round, regardless of whether we can stack him or not. With AJ Brown in the middle of round two, I expect to start drafting Hurts in round four on those teams (or at the 4/5 turn when Devonta falls there).

Current exposure: Daniels 5%, Hurts 4%
Target exposure: Daniels 8-10%, Hurts 10%

Brock Bowers

For Bowers, I’m already above expectation, but I want more, especially given his falling ADP. Pat Kerrane already delivered the bull case for him in one short clip, but if I were to put my Bowers case simply:

• He’s prime Travis Kelce

• Entering his second year in the league

• Offense got a big QB upgrade and is probably going to run more plays they did a year ago

There’s also less elite tight ends than usual (read: less probability of a huge playoff spike week), making Bowers chance at delivering the tight end spike week we need higher than usual and more impactful if it happens. Additionally, while playoff spike weeks have been the primary reason to draft elite tight ends, Bowers’ usage lends itself to a higher weekly floor than any tight end not named Travis Kelce in the last few years (and arguably more than Kelce), which elevates his chance of being a high advance rate player. I can’t get enough Bowers, and the only impediment to me drafting him is the feeling I get when George Kittle falls past ADP on a Bowers team.

Current exposure: 12%
Target exposure: 16-20%

RJ Harvey

Harvey has been a tough click for me so far, as there’s a slew of 5th round targets I like, including two running backs that are drafted after him. Additionally, his median outcome is probably overpriced by about a round in ADP. Nevertheless, Harvey’s ceiling outcomes are insanely high, as he offers three down-potential behind 2024’s best offensive line on a Sean Payton offense that almost always delivers high end expected RB fantasy points (even when that RB is as bad as Javonte Williams). This is the exact type of upside profile that Ben Gretch and others would have targeted in the dead zone a few years ago. Put simply, in tournaments where we need to hit on one-percent outcomes, Harvey is a guy I want on my teams.

Current exposure: 4%
Target exposure: 10%

Emeka Egbuka

Egbuka has been discounted this offseason for a slew of reasons that have nothing to do with him as a player. Pre-draft, he was viewed as a high floor prospect that was probably a slot-only in the NFL, which led us to question his upside. Then we knocked him for JSN’s relatively slow transition from that role at Ohio State to the NFL. Then he was drafted to the Bucs, who already have a strong slot receiver in place, and now we’re knocking him for potential role and playing time concerns. All of this feels very similar to the conversations we had a few years ago with Justin Jefferson, especially given Egbuka was even better in YPPR as an outside receiver than he was in the slot.

Enough, already.

Egbuka is a very good prospect that was drafted in the first round to a team that delivered a bonanza of fantasy points last season. The Bucs’ top receiving weapons are a 32 year old X receiver and a 29 year old receiver recovering from a dislocated ankle. Why can’t a first round rookie step in and be the #2 or even #1 option on this team by midseason? Why aren’t we pricing his potential to deliver spike weeks in the fantasy playoffs more aggressively?

Current exposure: 8%
Target exposure: 15%

Guys I want less of in the first 100 picks

Puka Nacua

To be clear, I love Puka and want an overweight stance. From in-breaking routes to out-breaking routes to charting to metrics, he’s an absolute stud and has the best chance of any non Chase/Jefferson/Lamb player to deliver an overall #1 season. He also has a kingmaker QB that doesn’t get drafted until QB24/ADP 161, making stacking extremely easy. If that’s not enough, he also has two playoff dome games, including a matchup vs a probable high-powered Atlanta offense in week 17 with his primary bring back (Drake London) aligned in ADP in round two.

So yeah, I’m really in on Puka.

However, 17% on a first-round player is extremely aggressive, and I don’t dislike any of Jahmyr Gibbs, Malik Nabers, or the other options around him, so I plan to balance this out slightly.

Current exposure: 17%
Target exposure: 12%

DJ Moore

Like the Colts, the 49ers were one of my biggest team questions during the Big Board. My take has solidified on them, and put simply, I love the 49ers at these prices. This has led to overweight exposures on each of their starting skill players and backup RB Isaac Guerendo. With the Bears as their week 17 opponent and aligned in ADP to CMC and George Kittle, it’s been extremely easy to draft D.J. Moore near his ADP.

However, I don’t love Moore, and I’ve kind of “slept walked” my way to a 9% exposure on him. I continue to have questions on the Bears, as we’ve priced in a strong Ben Johnson bump (though I love his coaching style). Ultimately, while Moore probably does finish as the Bears WR1, his competition is strong, and it’s hard to envision him delivering a top 5 or top 10 season. Unless it’s correlated, I probably prefer the upside of Tet McMillan and Travis Hunter at receiver or selecting another position here.³

Current exposure: 9%
Target exposure: 5%

James Cook

Cook is another player I was surprised to see my exposure on, especially given it was 15%. Between the ongoing contract issues and the almost certain rushing touchdown regression, I don’t view Cook as a value. However, as I’ve noted, I don’t like many of the RB/WR options at the 3/4 turn, which probably led me to consolidate more on Cook than I intended.⁴ Assuming the contract issues don’t lead to significant missed time, Cook is probably a fine pick here, but isn’t a meaningfully better bet than Breece Hall or the WRs drafted in this range.

Current exposure: 15%
Target exposure: 8%

Sam Laporta and T.J. Hockenson

Every day I get closer to writing another TE strategy article, and my overweight exposures on these two guys is pushing me there too. Individually, I like each player, as Laporta has shown massive spike week potential, and would probably see an increased target volume in the scenarios where the Lions are worse and have to pass more. His price is similar to Kittle’s last year, and while Laporta isn’t quite as talented, the bet is similar and it obviously worked out quite well for Kittle.

Similarly, Hockenson has shown the ability to draw elite volume at tight end, even if is efficiency and touchdown scoring has never exceeded a solid-to-good rate. However, if Jefferson or Addison missed time (and Addison is still live for a short early-season suspension), then Hockenson isn’t that different than the bet on Tre McBride, albeit with a ~5 round difference in ADP.

However, while I like each player, the macro environment is not favorable for them. George Kittle is one of the most mispriced players in the entire draft pool, and Brock Bowers is live to lead the entire league in receptions while having tight end eligibility. Similarly, talented tight ends tied to elite quarterbacks are available after pick 100, at historically cheap prices, and which are some of the best spike week bets we can make at tight end.

So, while I do like both Laporta and Hockenson, this seems like a case of “we build teams > we draft players” and I expect to finish only at or slight above expectation on each of them.

Current exposures: Laporta 13%, Hock 10%
Target exposures: Laporta 10%, Hock 8%

Marvin Harrison

Harrison is a difficult one for me, as I don’t love any of the WRs that will remain at the 2/3 turn all summer. Terry McLaurin is set for touchdown regression and isn’t an elite target earner. Jaxon Smith-Njigba can draw volume at an elite level, but the Seahawks are likely shifting to a run-based attack and downgraded at quarterback, weakening his ceiling outcome scenarios. Similarly, Garrett Wilson is set for another season of sub-average quarterback play, on an offense almost certain to run the ball at a high clip. Tyreek Hill almost certainly has the highest ceiling, but his production has declined, and he’s 31 now, elevating his downside risk as well.

Unfortunately, Harrison has similar questions, as he may not even be the #1 option on his own team. Last year, the Cardinals were content to trot him out as a sacrificial X-receiver, allowing Trey McBride to soak up easy receptions in the middle of the field. Given Harrison’s skillset, this is both bad for his fantasy value and probably bad for the Cardinals. For Harrison to take a step, we need the Cardinals to recognize their mistake and make a concerted effort to get Harrison the ball in more favorable ways. That outcome is certainly plausible, and in that scenario, Harrison is probably the best 2/3 turn receiver, and an extremely fun week 17 correlation option with the Bengals aligned in ADP.

However, the Cardinals retained their offensive coordinator and haven’t provided any indication they plan to change Harrison’s route tree or alignment, making a drastic change unlikely. If his deployment remains similar to last year, it’s difficult to envisioning him deliver a strong performance at this ADP.

Current exposure: 9%
Target exposure: 6%

1. It’s probably because the 5th round has been George Kittle about 20% of the time, which does present an interesting predicament for me. I should probably be willing to take more late 4th Kittle and early 5th round KW3 given my view on each, ADP value be damned.

2. Both the Ship Chasing guys and ETR discussing it in recent weeks.

3. As you can see from my rankings, my view is that Kittle should go here and he’d be my top priority there if he rose up a few spots in ADP.

4. Though, I know he’s fallen to the 4/5 turn a few times and I’ve certainly taken him when he goes there, based on pure ADP value + week 17 correlation with AJB/Devonta/Hurts alone.