Underdog Best Ball Rankings - May
Humbly Attacking the Wild West of ADP
If you’re drafting in May, you know what you’re signing up for. ADP has already shifted *massively* for the winners and losers of the NFL Draft. Drafting the winners before their ADP reaches new heights (and avoiding the trap of the losers) was probably THE reason for drafting now, but that period is already mostly over. However, as the NFL schedule is released next week, presenting us with the level of playoff week correlation, ADP will continue to shift. For those reasons, maintaining up-to-date rankings in May is both extremely challenging and critical.
How I Rank: Fair Value is Key
My approach is to rank players on where I think they should go at fair value — not where they should be drafted now. This presents a dilemma early in drafting season, because, there are often extreme risers and fallers that stray from ADP and rankings. If you have drafted in the last week, we’ve seen this exact scenario play out, and I fully acknowledge that you if you want these risers, you often need to take them above both ADP and my (perceived fair value) rankings. I recognize this and do this myself with the fast risers (such as Xavier Worthy, Ladd McConkey, and Jermaine Burton).
However, we should also acknowledge that these rookies screaming up the ADP board early, often peak in mid-summer and fall back down as we gain clarity during training camp and preseason (and get the coach-speak reports that “fun rookie x is still third on the depth chart” and that he “has to earn his place”). So, while I do recommend being aggressive early, we also need recognize that this window is relatively short and probably offers diminishing returns each day we get closer to the season. So, the closer we get to the season, the more we should rely on rankings from experts, ADP, as they reflect more of a true market consensus on fair value.
How I Draft: Strong Opinions, Humbly Changed
While confident in my rankings, I want to acknowledge up front that I do not draft exclusively off of my rankings. While I certainly have opinions (and usually strong ones), I think it’s important to recognize that a consensus of experts is very likely to be more accurate than my individual opinion.
So, for the rankings I load into Underdog, I weight them with roughly 50% of my rank and 50% with a blend of ADP and other analysts’ rankings that I respect (which I listed here). This often leads to a fairly diversified portfolio, where my highest exposure guys are the ones I’m highest on relative to the market, but I’m perfectly willing to take substantial ADP fallers despite my rankings.
Last year, thanks to Legendary Upside writer Sackreligious, I can see that I finished in the 71st percentile in diversification among BBMIV max entry drafters, and 32nd in advance rate. This was despite some of my most drafted players (and consequently my most strongly held opinions) facing season-ending injuries (Anthony Richardson, Mark Andrews) or sucking (Kyle Pitts, Elijah Moore). The year prior it led me to a BBM final on the back of a discount on multiple running backs, including a 20% off on Ezekiel Elliott, who I drafted roughly 1% of that year.
In short, my approach is to have strong opinions, but be humble enough to accept that I’ll often be wrong or unlucky. I build humbleness in my process by including the ranks and opinions of the market and experts, and act on it by taking the ADP values that are presented to me. So with my approach clarified, please find my May 2024 rankings below. For those interested, I’ve also detailed the players that I currently view most differently from the market further below. As always, please comment below or send me a DM on twitter if you have specific questions or ideas.
Cheers and happy drafting!
Players I’m Higher than the Market on
To define the players I’m highest on relative to the market, I use Weighted Difference. Weighted Difference adjusts the raw difference to better account for ADP, (e.g. Breece Hall’s raw difference is only 3.7, but that’s more impactful than Jermain Burton’s 27 because Breece goes so much earlier). At the top of the Weighted Difference list is Breece Hall.
Breece Hall
By my numbers, which factor in Next Gen Stats rush metrics, ESPN receiver ratings, and then adjust those for volume (to reflect the NFL’s evaluation of the player), Hall was the 5th-best running back in the league last year. Hall achieved that despite returning from an ACL-injury that led many drafters to knock him in their rankings after the Jets signed the corpse of Dalvin Cook, and a week one injury to Aaron Rodgers that led to league-worst quarterback play (again).
Heading into 2024, Hall has firm control over the backfield, with Aaron Rodgers returning, and the addition of a first round offensive tackle and a deep threat wide receiver, which likely sets Hall up for improved efficiency. I have Hall ranked at #4 overall, as there is a dearth of running backs that truly have the Legendary Upside to define a fantasy football season. Barring a drastic ADP increase, Breece will be my most concentrated round one bet.
Ja’marr Chase - Joe Burrow - Jermaine Burton
One of my favorite football twitter bits the last few years has been the “they forgot about A.J. Brown” and “all roads lead to A.J. Brown” ones.
I’d like to be the first to apply these themes to the three Bengals listed above.
When healthy, Joe Burrow and Ja’marr Chase have absolutely dominated this league, offering a weekly consistency with an elite ceiling that few other combinations can touch. They were THE key to winning Best Ball Mania once already. Now, we get the same pairing at the cheapest ADP it’s been in 2+ years, despite elevated WR and QB ADPs since that period, along with a rookie WR in Burton that Matt Harmon of Reception Perception considered to be arguably the 4th best receiver in this (elite) class.
Given a reasonable ADP on Tee Higgins, an easy late-round tight end stack partner in Mike Gesicki, and two cheap running back options in Zack Moss and Chase Brown, the Bengals likely will be one of my heaviest team bets this season.
Diontae Johnson
I expect to be on a bit of an island with Diontae this year, as none of the analysts I include in my weighted ranks like him nearly as much as I do. Going back to my drafting approach, I will almost certainly be above weight on Diontae, but I’ll humble with it and will make sure to check-in with myself regularly to make sure I still like him as much as I do now. Why am I in on Diontae?
Simply put, he’s one of the best separators in the league when evaluated by both film and tracking data. Bryce Young had one of the worst supporting casts in the league last year, with a room full of receivers that could not separate (other than Adam Thielen with his 7.6 air yards per target), with D.J. Chark and Jonathan Mingo ranking 92nd and 108th (out of 109) qualifying receivers in ESPN receiver rating.
Diontae ranked 7th and is a win-at-all-depths type of receiver that has ignited offenses (and their fantasy production) when changing teams in the past, with the foremost examples being Stefon Diggs and D.J. Moore. I’m not predicting anything close to a Josh Allen type of leap for Bryce, but even slightly below league average play would likely be the best quarterback that Diontae has ever played with. And if Young is able to take a step forward in year two, as other early first-round picks Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence have done recently after improvements to their environments, then Diontae would likely be in the realm of a league-winning season from his mid-7th round ADP.
Players I’m Lower than the Market on
Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Jonathan Taylor
None of this illustrious trio played well last year, despite earning volume at solid levels again. Based on my analysis, Saquon Barkley was the 18th best running back in the league last year — and that’s after factoring in that he finished 8th in rushing attempts and 14th in routes run. Derrick Henry ranked 30th, finishing 19th in NFL Next Gen Stats’ success rate and 16th in rush yards over expectation (RYOE). Jonathan Taylor, yes previous efficiency king Johnathan Taylor, ranked as the 48th best running back last year, Taylor posted the 42nd best success rate and 15th best RYOE, relying entirely on big plays. So yeah, it was a bleak year for some of the best running back talents in the league.
That said, it is reasonable for us to be more optimistic about each this year.
Saquon joined the Eagles, who ranked 1st in run block win rate (RBWR) last year. The Giants ranked 31st. The Eagles will also almost certainly provide more scoring opportunities for Saquon, in addition to a likely rushing efficiency bump.
Derrick Henry joined the Ravens, who ranked 5th in RBWR, while the Titans ranked 21st. Henry also likely will see the benefits of Lamar’s unique gravity and the Ravens overall better offensive environment, bumping his efficiency and chance at rushing touchdowns.
Taylor also gets the bump of playing with a mobile “gravity-creating” quarterback in Anthony Richardson, and the Colts finished 11th in RBWR last season. With Taylor fully healthy now after a lengthy absence, it’s likely he will also improve upon his efficiency.
So, the question becomes, if each of these backs is in a better situation, why am I so much lower than the market on them?
In short, because the market is fully pricing in this bump in. Saquon is drafted in the 2nd round at RB5. Taylor in the 2nd at RB6. Henry in the 3rd as RB10.
None of these guys are likely to catch many passes. At their current ADPs, the bet is essentially that of Nick Chubb in the last few seasons. Elite rushing efficiency and volume, with minimal receiving points added. While I wasn’t a huge fan of the Chubb bet, we were highly confident that Chubb was going to deliver on the elite rushing efficiency and volume. With the trio of Barkley, Taylor, and Henry this year, current ADP is asking us to make that same bet. And while I agree there are reasons for optimism that each can deliver on that bet, I do not have the same confidence as we did with Chubb in past seasons. TLDR, I’m below market on each until they fall or July arrives, whichever comes first.
For now, I’d recommend mostly holding off each at current ADP, as market consensus is much more likely to drive the ADP down until at least early July.
Tyreek Hill and Cooper Kupp
Let me say up front with Hill and Kupp that it’s more about their teammates and the players going at their ADPs than it is about them. Both are extremely good. Hill in particular, nearly broke YPPR as a metric last season, and the pieces are in place for him to do so again. With that said, I’m also a strong proponent of being picky with our early picks. Tyreek Hill is 30 years old and tied to a quarterback I don’t believe in. Ja’marr Chase is also elite and tied to Joe Burrow. Ceedee Lamb is elite and tied to Dak Prescott. Justin Jefferson probably is the best receiver in football and is five years younger than Tyreek. Breece Hall I covered earlier. So, with that said, I’m probably going to be picky and take an underweight position (3-5% of Tyreek).
As for Kupp, it’s more about what is around him. Other than Derrick Henry, I like almost all of the players going around him, many of whom are #1 option for their team, tied to an elite offense, are 5+ years younger, or some combination of the above. It is certainly plausible that Kupp comes back and dominates alongside Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua again, and I’m not out. Instead, I’d like to be a bit more price conscious with Kupp, finishing with 4-5% of him at an average value relative to ADP, and ensuring I stack Stafford with him on those teams.
Brock Bowers, Adonai Mitchell, Troy Franklin
This trio is as different as it gets from the veteran running back crew earlier. Each had a prospect profile I was very interested pre-NFL Draft, but unfortunately, the NFL Draft was not kind to these guys. Bowers, in particular, was a shot to the groin, as dreams of him catching passes from Aaron Rodgers in a full-time role alongside Garrett Wilson, Mike Williams, and Breece Hall faded to a image of Gardner Minshew emerging from his van down by the river in jorts rocking a stache from the 1970s.
It was bleak.
Mitchell and Franklin weren’t quite as difficult to stomach, as each fell in the draft, but had some questions in their profiles already (Mitchell with a poor YPPR, Franklin with negative outlier size).
Overall, I think each of these guys will soon settle in a zone where I’m comfortable taking shots at them at the new prices. Bowers has already fallen a round from his pre-draft ADP to pick 90. Assuming he falls another round or so, I’ll start mixing him in soon. Mitchell and Franklin both have a longer way to go in raw ADP, which means they probably will fall more slowly. They probably remain on my do not draft list until the start of June or so.