2024 Schedule and New Best Ball Process
Note: If you just want my 2024 best ball process and writing schedule without the fluff, please skip to the the section titled “2024 Process and Reducing Uncertainty Schedule”
Since I was 12 years old, my main hobby has been football. It was my favorite sport to play. It was my favorite to watch. The NCAA video game series remains my favorite of all time (and we are back baby). My interest only increased as I played in college, as I was surrounded my a bunch of guys who loved it as much as I did. I love the combination of talents it requires, with each position requiring a slightly different skillset than the person standing next to them. I love the need for strategy and tactics, coupled with an all-out physical commitment for about 5 seconds.
To me, it’s a near perfect game.
After college, I couldn’t play anymore, but I still loved the game. So, naturally, I channeled that love more into the fantasy football side of it. Discovering best ball, where I could just draft teams without a requirement to do the tedious aspects of waivers and start/sits was a dream come true. With the rise of best ball, my twenties were filled with grinding news and analysis on twitter and drafting teams. I cultivated a “Football” Twitter list that allowed me to learn about any aspect of the NFL, fantasy football, or top college prospects at any point in the year and at any moment. I used that list to earn a profit or finish above expectation in every NFL best ball year going back to 2016, including a top-5 finish in the Mastiff last year.
I’ve enjoyed the heck out of it.
However, as I approached (and passed) my 30th birthday, I found myself becoming less interested in the constant grind for news and analysis. Starting last February after the Conference Championships, I started to crave time where I’m not consuming any football related content. In short, I discovered the offseason. A wild concept that early/mid twenties Madison would have made fun of incessantly. But if I wasn’t going to commit to research in February-April, then this tweet from Pat Kerrane was a clear signal to me that it might be time to hang up the pre-draft best ball cleats.
While Pat was hammering the rookie without an ADP who would put together one of the greatest rookie tight seasons ever, I barely knew who he was. That’s get-to-work-or-get-out-music. And for me, volume drafting in that time would have been akin to being on the dance floor but barely hearing the music. So, starting last year, I mostly avoided pre-draft best ball.
And I loved it. I read more, skied more, explored more. This begged the question, “if you love this period, why don’t you do more of it?” Which reminded of this scene from the Sports/RomCom movie (a wildly effective mix when you think about it) Fever Pitch.
I’m not at Jimmy Kimmel’s level (I’m not sure anyone is), but the look on his face as he contemplated some changes hits home.
This year, I’ve taken some time away from the NFL grind again, and the effect has been another February/March of great enjoyment. Per my reading tracker, I’ve read more books in the last two months than I have in any other two month span going back to 2016, including these incredible two (1 2) that changed aspects of my worldview. I’ve tried new games, which this year has included a recent Chess grind (Scottish/Sicilian openings are my favorite). I’ve exercised more (adding in a spin class that’s much different than my typical lift/hoop routine has been awesome), and tried to embrace doing more “hard things”. I want these habits and activities to stick, even after I spin back up for NFL best ball.
So the question becomes, if I’m actively going to spend less time on the NFL, but still play best ball at volume, how can I adjust my process to maintain (most or all of) the level of knowledge and success that I’ve had? Which, I assume, is something that many of the readers of Reducing Uncertainty are/will be balancing. So, this year, I’ve made some changes and commitments, which I’ve stuck to so far:
No following the NFL from the Super Bowl until after March Madness
No following the NFL on Twitter app until at least the draft, ideally training camp
Outsource research on college prospects completely
No serious drafting in the Big Board, or any other pre-draft best ball
Highlight specific people/sites to check on for specific work, instead of scrolling through the Twitter list until the season starts
With this shift in mind, I’ve planned out the Reducing Uncertainty schedule and process for the 2024 NFL best ball season. So, without further ado (and there was a lot of ado), please see the below:
2024 Process and Reducing Uncertainty Schedule
Rookies
My work: None - outsourcing it completely
When: I’ll read the following people/sites analysis right before the NFL draft
Other work I’m following: Legendary Upside, Rotoviz, the Late-Round Prospect Guide, then check on divisive prospects with film-based analysts/sites like PFF, Matt Harmon, Matt Waldman, J Moyer, Jetpack Gaileo, Cian Fahey. Often, the film guys provide context that is asymmetrically valuable, as the market tends to not weight the film takes as highly (i.e. Rashee Rice playing hurt, running back vision/intangibles, a WR getting open but having bad QB play)
Macro-Environment
My work: I love analyzing the macro environment, especially given how wildly it has shifted the last few seasons, so you will see analysis from me on this front. Last year was a New Frontier, and I can’t wait to analyze how the environment has shifted this year.
Other work I’m following: Sam Sherman, Hayden Winks, Pat Kerrane, Neil Farley, Jakob Sanderson, Pete Overzet, Ben Gretch, the crews at Rotoviz, Spike Week, ETR, and 4for4 (and more that I’m surely forgetting)
When: May
Positional strategy
My work: I expect to review each of QB, TE, RB, and WR, as I did last year.
When: June
Other work I’m following: There’s a lot of overlap here with the macro-environment review/strategy, but the Ship Chasing crew offers an excellent weekly summary. Sam Sherman was incredibly valuable to follow last year (especially given I often disagreed with him), as I was often able to steelman the arguments against my own.
Contests Review and Portfolio Trackers
My work: I’ll probably put something together like this again
When: July
Other work I’m following: The best ball grinder community usually hits this hard (and effectively). Some folks there include TJ Hernandez, FFRyan, Tom Strachan, and Michael Dubner. Spike Week also hits both of these well as a site.
Specific Player Takes:
My work: I don’t do many of these, as I reserve it for the players/ADPs I’m most curious on. However, I usually do a few a year, and have wildly mixed results (Stefon Diggs vs Skyy Moore). My overall approach is that diversifying based on ADP is more effective in best ball sites with a gauntlet format like Underdog. On cumulative sites like Drafters, I like making more consolidated bets on players.
When: Expect an August publication of players I specifically want to bet on or fade
Other work I’m following: This is the hardest to replicate by not griding twitter. But, I enjoy the debates that the Ship Chasing and Spike Week crews have about players, so that’s probably where I will start. Stealing Bananas also has great debates about players.
Going Forward
In summary, expect to see Reducing Uncertainty spin back up in early May, with the tentative schedule below:
May: Review of the macro environment
May: Macro strategy and roster construction
June: Strategy by position
July: Contest Review - comparison of rake, payout structure, and more
August: Consolidating our bets - which players to bet/fade
Until then, best of luck in your pre-draft best ball contests and/or with your continued enjoyment of the offseason.
Madison