Top Lines: Best Ball Tools, Free Trade, and how much energy do our ChatGPT searches use?
What I’m Writing
I don’t have another best ball topic set yet (other than a rankings update), but there will be one in the next few weeks. If you all have something you want to see, please feel free to comment or DM with that idea.
What I’m Thinking About
Best Ball draft tools, which I’ve covered through a series of tweets and replies. Essentially, I’m not concerned about the tools ruining the best ball in the short/intermediate term, as best ball has a wide moat compared to chess/poker/others due to the variance of football and the forecasting best ball requires months ahead of the season. However, I will note that ETR did pretty substantially undercut the market pricing on these tools, offering their basic version for $35/month (though it is separate from their overall best ball subscription).1 If that trend continues, I it’s plausible that new drafters are forced into either paying for the tools or not playing (viewing the game as solved, like we’ve seen some with DFS). That said, there’s a large audience that simply prefers the drafting experience on their phone, and thus far, none of the overlay tools work on mobile devices, which probably limits the impacts of the tool.
All-in-all, the tools that directly overlay a pick recommendation are probably a long-term negative for the fun of the drafting experience and will improve weaker drafters’ teams (if they pay for them). I’d prefer if these tools weren’t allowed, but they probably aren’t meaningfully impacting any edge for now. As with every game, there’s a constant state of evolution, and for players, we must be prepared to adapt. As a relatively high volume drafter, I’ll probably give one of the tools a shot this summer to save time and convenience, even if I don’t expect it to meaningfully impact the quality of the teams that I draft.
What I’m Reading
Artificial Intelligence
The effect of ChatGPT on students’ learning performance, learning perception, and higher-order thinking: insights from a meta-analysis
Key Quote: This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of ChatGPT in improving students' learning performance, learning perception, and higher-order thinking through a meta-analysis of 51 research studies published between November 2022 and February 2025. The results indicate that ChatGPT has a large positive impact on improving learning performance and a moderately positive impact on enhancing learning perception and fostering higher-order thinking.
My Takeaway: There’s been lots of doom and gloom about AI and its effects on students lately, but this piece served as a reminder about the positive effects AI can have as well. When used properly, AI is a powerful tool that is ready to help us learn at any moment, with minimal friction. While it can make us reliant on it, or enable us to take an easier path, those are ultimately individual decisions that the tool cannot help. We must choose how to engage with it, which is both a personal responsibility and something we’ll need to reinforce to kids early and often in their lives.
Economy
Globalization did not hollow out the American middle class
Key Quote: Of course, as Autor et al. show in their famous “China Shock” paper, the harms from Chinese import competition were concentrated among a few workers in a few regions. 2 million workers were only 1.5% of the U.S. workforce at the time, but for that 1.5%, being thrown out of good manufacturing jobs was a heavy blow.
My Takeaway: In this article, Noah basically defends the standard economic consensus for the last few decades, which is essentially that free trade is efficient, trade deficits don’t really matter, and the benefits of it outweigh the negatives, which are largely isolated to a few workers in a few regions. However, as we’ll see from the next piece, I think that narrative is proving to be false.
Lyn Alden - May 2025 Newsletter: A Trade Breakdown
Key Quote: Basically, the domestic donors to this system are those in the Midwest and other parts of the heartland, and the domestic beneficiaries of this system are primarily on the coasts and in cities. The system has been increasingly imbalanced in this direction for about four or five decades now. Those imbalances started small, but they're cumulative.
My Takeaway: Lyn essentially makes the case that the past free trade consensus would’ve been fine for short periods and/or on a small scale. However, as she notes, over an extended period of time, the negative effects become cumulative and generate added indirect effects. In this case, it’s not just the 1.5% of the workforce that Noah notes that are affected — it’s also that other businesses and people in that region that rely on that 1.5% are negatively impacted. As we see below, people in rural areas generally suffered, while people in cities thrived. With this lens, the evaluation of free trade is less whether it is good/bad, and more about how it has defined people/regions as clear winners/losers.2
Energy
What's the carbon footprint of using ChatGPT?
Key Quotes: Electricity use in the United States is about three times higher than in the UK, so ChatGPT prompts are an even smaller piece of the pie. Ten searches per day would come to 0.09% of per capita electricity generation, while 100 searches would be 0.9%.
Why using ChatGPT is not bad for the environment - a cheat sheet
Key Quotes: ChatGPT uses 3 Wh. This is enough energy to:
Leave a single incandescent light bulb on for 3 minutes.
Leave a wireless router on for 30 minutes.
Play a gaming console for 1 minute.
Run a vacuum cleaner for 10 seconds.
Run a microwave for 10 seconds
Run a toaster for 8 seconds
Brew coffee for 10 seconds
Use a laptop for 3 minutes.
My Takeaway: Based on these two articles, I’m not concerned about my personal energy usage of AI tools at all.
Sports
RJ Harvey is an asymmetrical bet
Key Quote: The pass-blocking stuff is often overblown; Javonte averaged just 6.1 pass-blocking snaps per game across his 18 games. The key takeaway from the cohort we’re discussing here is that Harvey is going to get work. What this post is saying is that the volume should be there for Harvey to be another asymmetrical bet. If instead of sucking he’s actually someone who really splashes at the next level, then we’re talking about a huge 2025 hit.
My Takeaway: The RJ Harvey price tag has continued to shoot up, and even as someone with more than 20% in the pre-draft contests, I’ve been having a difficult time getting on board. Countering that notion, Ben delivers with a great piece that details Harvey’s asymmetrical upside, based on how the Javonte result could’ve been much different last year (if Javonte had actually been good). We do have to bet on Harvey to be talented at an ADP in the 5th round, but Ben’s case for his upside has me interested and willing to take some chances on him again.
Other Topics
Mississippi Can't Possibly Have Good Schools… and yet it does
Key Quote: When the Urban Institute adjusted national test results for student demographics, this is where Mississippi ranked:
Fourth grade math: 1st
Fourth grade reading: 1st
Eighth grade math: 1st
Eighth grade reading: 4th
My Takeaway: There’s an interesting trend within the article that southern schools have been on a tear of improvement lately, including Mississippi. And they’ve been doing it with less funding per student than other states, reinforcing that simply throwing money at education is probably not the solution. However, this article didn’t have much detail on why Mississippi and the others are having great success, so I’ll have to look into that further for a future Top Lines.
How to live an intellectually rich life
Key Quote: By surrounding ourselves with too few ideas, we let our ideas die. Our ideas become Still Lifes. By surrounding ourselves with too many ideas of the same kind, we just recycle through the same ideas. Our ideas become Oscillators. Our ideas need to be diverse. Our ideas need to be abundant.
My Takeaway: There’s a balance to learning, and each of depth and breadth are required. In a way, libraries are a good metaphor for this balance, as we check a book out for a limited period of time and learn from it. Once those few weeks are up, we have to give it back and move on to another.
The Comfortable Life is Killing You
Key Quote: Sweat and Effort activate our sense of agency. We feel alive, capable, and purposeful when we overcome something difficult... To seek the disease of ease is to conspire in one’s own diminishment. To evade hardship is to reject the very crucible that forms something greater than the pitiable creature that merely survives, fattened on security and stripped of fire... To truly live—rather than merely exist—one must reject the illusion of safety and embrace the uncertainty that defines life... In the words of Joseph Campbell, “The cave you fear to enter holds the treasure you seek.
My Takeaway: As usual, I like ending Top Lines with a bit of a motivational flavor, and this one delivered an excellent combination of David Goggins and Nietzsche. Physically, I feel my best after exercising. Mentally, after reading, writing, or using my brain. Emotionally, after choosing to take on a responsibility that helps someone I care about it. As the quotes says, those are the actions that make us feel alive and purposeful.
Books Update
Finished
N/A
In Progress:
My goal is to read 3 books at once: 1 non-fiction, 1 fiction, and one self-improvement.
The Back Mechanic — 90%
At last check, Legendary Upside was pricing the Sidekick at $125/month or $500/year (Edit*** The Sidekick’s price includes a Legendary Upside subscription) (separate from their overall subscription), and Spike Week’s Draft Hacker was at $40/month or $300/year (though Spike Week is a bit unique, as it includes everything else from the site, but Draft Hacker isn’t recommending players like the ETR/LegUp’s tools).
Relatedly, Noah and others have made the claim that because middle class income has boomed (becoming high-income) in the last few decades, this is a sign of strength for the free trade consensus. However, Lyn has pushed back on this notion indirectly as well in this long piece, which shows that despite income increasing for the middle classes, their share of the wealth has significantly decreased, reinforcing a perception that they are worse off (which is probably both true and false to some degree). It’s a complicated issue, and one without an easy “x is good, y is bad” in my opinion.