Top Lines
Elite Tight Ends vs Elite Quarterbacks, the Texas' energy transition, and how to remember everything you read
What I’m Writing
Underdog Best Ball: Early My Guys — target publication (early/mid June)
Underdog Best Ball: The Optimal Start — target publication (early/mid June)
What I’m Thinking About
Why elite tight ends outperform elite quarterbacks in the best ball playoffs, despite elite QBs’ slight edge over the course of a whole season.
I re-engaged in an annual debate on Twitter with my friend/elite tight end nemesis Sam Sherman recently. We both argued our standard points, with Sam presenting lots of charts and me saying the best ball version of the Newsroom scene of ‘If Elite QBs are so fucking good, how come they lose so goddamn always’ and linking to playoff advance rates.
The facts, as I see them, are that QBs have held a slight edge over the course of whole the season, as we see below1
…but the average elite tight end has outperformed the average elite QB in playoff advance rates from 2021-2024, including the the two easily highest finals advance rates.
This holds true when looking at the breakout within the individual seasons, when Mark Andrews posted an insane 0.81% and Kittle with an almost-double-the-best-QB rate of 0.48%. However, the QBs take the next five highest spots, which probably adds weight to the narrative that the QBs are more predictably great, while the elite TEs come with a lower floor and a wider range of outcomes.
In summary, I think you can read the data one of two ways. The first is that the weakness of the tight end position makes their spikes insanely powerful, and that the format of the gauntlet nature of Underdog’s best ball tournament are more beneficial for tight ends.2 The second is that we still have less than one full season of “playoff” data, and that this would normalize back in favor of the elite QBs.
Overall, I continue to lean toward what the (admittedly) small sample of data has shown so far, which is the elite tight ends having an edge in the playoffs. But I don’t have high confidence in that call, and we could easily see Sam’s assessment prove correct in the future. For this year, I do think it sets up better for the elite QBs, as the ADP gap between Brock Bowers and Trey McBride and the mid-round TEs is much wider than normal. However, George Kittle is also underpriced compared to the usual TE3, despite his elite metrics and phenomenal setup. More to come on Kittle and my strategy at tight end in a few weeks.
What I’m Reading
Artificial Intelligence
Manufacturing Startups
Key Quote: These are a rare breed of manufacturing companies which innovate on the physical part fabrication methodology. They’re oftentimes iterating on fundamental research with respect to material science and related fields, to improve quality, speed, or throughput of their given process.
My Takeaway: One area that is growing is "hard tech", which essentially represents the bridge between the physical and technological aspects of our society. There's a friction between these in recent years, with digital infrastructure working more effectively than ever, while our physical infrastructure has been less reliable. If most of us suddenly don't want to transition from a white collar back to a blue collar job later in life, working for/investing in/creating businesses or companies like these represent a potential alternate path.
The fugu guide to jobs in a world of AI
Key Quote: Where is the machine creating a new constraint that only a human can resolve? … Don’t just look for the human touch that AI can’t provide. Look for what the system can’t yet coordinate, and ensure that you’re positioned in a way that makes your value visible and tradable.
Economy
The Global Trade Reset Was Inevitable
Key Quote: I think we will probably live in a world in which tariffs are higher than they were, not as high as they've been threatened to be.
My Takeaway: I agree with Jack on this, and that seems to be the market consensus for the short-term. However, the 90-day pause will end this summer, potentially indicating more volatility ahead soon.
Energy
Has electricity gotten more expensive?
Key Quotes: Texas has started about the U.S. average, for a couple of years, it was higher than the U.S. average. But since 2008 or so, 2010, it dropped below the U.S. average and spent most of the last 14 years since cheaper than the rest of the country. Looking at the last 20 years of Texan electricity history, there’s simply no evidence of doom and gloom from changing fuel sources. Texas ranked 39th in the EIA’s data on electricity costs for 2023—that makes it the 11th cheapest.
My Takeaway: Despite a huge energy transition away from coal in the last 15 years, Texas has skyrocketed from one of the states with the most expensive energy to one of the cheapest. However, the new bill passed by the Texas Senate that limits renewable energy threatens to harm Texas’ new low-cost energy status, in favor of the type of over-regulation that Texans usually hate.
Source: EIA Texas
Sports
NFC North Divisional Check-in
Key Quote (Lions): Jared Goff excelled in these situations, performing well above average in structure, but he was below average when forced out of rhythm. No quarterback gained more EPA on in-structure plays relative to his PFF grade than Goff, suggesting that the system, rather than individual brilliance, was a key driver of offensive efficiency.
Key Quote (Packers): If the run game holds up and Love’s dip in production was largely injury-related, this offense could quietly be one of the league’s most efficient in 2025. I’m buying the Packers — and I’m bullish on where this team is headed.
Key Quote (Vikings): Across three different quarterbacks over two seasons, Minnesota has consistently generated strong production on dropbacks unaffected by pressure or coverage. That trend should give confidence that the offense can continue to function efficiently with J.J. McCarthy now at quarterback.
Key Quote (Bears): Destroy rate” refers to plays where the quarterback is kept clean and still produces a negative result, whether it’s taking a sack, a failed scramble or an inaccurate throw. Caleb Williams ranked at the very bottom of the league in this category, “destroying” nearly 55% of those clean-pocket opportunities. Compounding the issue, Williams led the league in the rate of pressures he himself was responsible for.
My Takeaway: The Packers remain my early favorite for most valuable team in best ball, and I’m still mostly unconcerned about the Vikings. There’s no discount on the Lions, even with Ben Johnson’s departure, and they’re probably slightly overpriced, but not enough for me to bet strongly against them. However, I am skeptical of the Bears the market has stayed aggressive, refusing to let their ADPs fall much. The coaching will almost certainly be better, but as we see above, Caleb Williams was regularly destroying plays from a clean pocket last year. I expect him to improve with Johnson and an improved supporting cast, but the market is clearly pricing that in. I will likely end underweight if their current ADP holds.
Other Topics
Tirzepatide as Compared with Semaglutide for the Treatment of Obesity
Key Quote: Among participants with obesity but without diabetes, treatment with tirzepatide was superior to treatment with semaglutide with respect to reduction in body weight and waist circumference at week 72.
My Takeaway: The development of another weight loss drug with similar/greater effectiveness probably places downward pressure on the high cost semaglutides, potentially increasing the accessibility of them for the general public.
How to Remember Everything You Read
Key Quote: Modern psychology confirms Adler’s insight. Techniques like elaborative encoding — explaining ideas in your own words — help your brain transfer knowledge into long-term memory... While a clean book might look better on your shelf, a messy one says something far more important. It shows that you didn’t just read it, but that you wrestled with it — and made it truly yours.
My Takeaway: As someone who loves to take notes in my hard-copy books and explain the big ideas from them to my family friends, I loved this article. I plan to incorporate some of the ideas recommended below into my book reading.
$600 million worth of sushi
Key Quote: A lot of times all we really need is an order of magnitude estimate to decide whether something is believable or at least in the same ballpark as the truth. We don’t need to be absolutely certain.
My Takeaway: Quick Fermi estimates are one of my favorite ways to think quickly about big claims (like the $600 million worth of sushi the author links). Learning how to use them is both fun and helps us develop a useful BS meter.
Confessions of a Reformed Gym-Bro: Why Your Mobility Work Matters More Than You Think
Key Quote: Most people hitting the gym just want to get stronger but they don’t have a good reason why. Was it training to impress strangers on Instagram? To win imaginary competitions with gym-goers you’ll never meet? Or was training to live a full, active, pain-free life for as long as possible? … We’re people who want to play with our kids without pain, enjoy active hobbies into old age, and move through the world with comfort and confidence.
My Takeaway: As a athlete that even into my 30s still likes to push myself to the edge on occasion, the last sentence of the quote really rings true. I have a solid dynamic warm-up routine I’ve used for years, but I plan to make a more concerted into mobility exercises both during warm-up and cool down.
Refuse to Play it Safe. Live Dangerously, Live Lovingly.
Key Quote: As for heaven and hell, they are right here on Earth, and it is up to each of you in which one you choose to reside. To put it simply, heaven is living in your hopes and hell is living in your fears… You have no responsibility except to be yourself to the fullest limit of yourself. And to find out who you are. Or perhaps I should say to remember who you are. Because deep down in the secret velvet of your heart, far beyond your name and address, each of you knows who you really are.
Books Update
Finished
N/A
In Progress:
My goal is to read 3 books at once: 1 non-fiction, 1 fiction, and one self-improvement.
Credit to “Big Loaf” from Twitter (yes that is a real account name)
I have a few theories as to why that is, but I haven’t deeply researched them. Namely, the lack of a floor at tight end means “replacement production” is lower than TE12, while the predictability at QB means the floor is ~QB12 on any given week. That widens the effective points over replacement metric, putting tight end spikes far ahead. Additionally, given the rise of stacking and stronger correlation at QB than TE, it’s probably easier for a QB stack to hit a combined weekly ceiling that matches the elite QBs than for the same thing to occur with tight ends.