The Sketch: Week Seven

Falcons-Seahawks: All roads lead to points

Oct 20, 2024

Week Seven Data

This chart is intended to be a one-stop shop for each matchup that details a bunch of key factors to the game, including O/U, team implied points, pace, team pass/rush rates, each teams offensive/defensive efficiency, and the strength of each teams offensive/defensive lines.¹ Below the chart, I’ll analyze a few key points that stand out.

Game Environment

Each week, this section will include analysis on each team’s projected points, pace, and matchup for their upcoming game.

Totals

Each week, I break matchups down into Slight Favorites, Clear Favorites, and Toss-up games, as those teams (that also have high O/Us) are who we want to target most.²

Slight Favorites (-3.5 to -6.5)

As usual, the Ravens stand out, with the highest implied total and the highest O/U of the slight favorites. Their spread is also the tightest, suggesting a back-and-forth shootout is more likely than the other games. That’s a welcome sight as the Ravens continue to play smash ball football, with the 2nd-lowest PROE (-9%) and slightly below average neutral pace. The Ravens have a strong OL vs DL mismatch this week, particularly in the run game (74% RBWR vs 28% RSWR), so if the Ravens are going to pass more than expected, it’ll probably require a strong shove from the Bucs offense. With a 5.2% PROE (2nd) and a 52.3% dropback success rate (1st), the Bucs have been able to mitigate a poor pass blocking OL. Now facing a a Ravens pass funnel defense, and Baker Mayfield and crew are primed for a big week. And if they can keep it close, there’s a chance we see another week of elevated Lamar Jackson passing alongside another efficient Derrick Henry performance.

For the Bengals and Jaguars, each team is nearly in an identical spot, with strong spreads and solid implied team totals, but poor O/Us. That is mostly due to the atrocious offensive performances put together by their week seven opponents, the Browns and Patriots, so far. The Browns traded their best receiver, shifted to the run last week, and are still starting Deshaun Watson at QB. They are very unlikely to push the Bengals. However, the Bengals continue to pass heavily (3rd in PROE). The Browns defense is only an average unit, but Myles Garrett is still leading a strong defensive line. The Bengals are unlikely to have success on the ground, meaning Joe Burrow, Ja’marr Chase, and Tee Higgins are in a good-but-not-great spot this week.

For the Jags, they haven’t been anywhere nearly as good as the Bengals offensively, and they don’t throw nearly as often (0.1% PROE). If we’re betting on this game to exceed expectation, that’ll likely be due to Drake Maye dominating against an atrocious Jacksonville defense, which ranks dead last in EPA/dropback. Maye is likely to continue to make mistakes, but through one performance, he played to his big-play-hunter reputation. He should have some chances for big plays this week. If he he hits them, this game could be a sneaky volume up spot for Trevor Lawrence and the Jags.

Clear Favorites (-7 or more)

With a whopping 30.5 implied total, the Commanders stand head and shoulders above everyone this week. Washington leads the league in Dropback EPA/play and is 3rd in rush EPA/play. Facing off against a Panthers defense that ranks bottom-10 in nearly every defense metric, they can probably choose their path. So far, they’ve had a slight tilt to the pass in neutral scripts, but have played slightly lower than average. Given the 9.5 point spread, we should expect them to tilt more towards the run this week. Still, Jayden Daniels has proven he can score from anywhere, and there should be plenty of touchdowns to go around this week, even if Carolina doesn’t effectively fight back.

The Bills get a matchup against the injured Will Levis-led Titans, who continue to play slowly and run often, as they attempt to limit their QB’s impact on the game. Unfortunately for Josh Allen and his pass-catchers, the Bills have also tilt toward the run, despite ranking 2nd in Dropback EPA/play. While the Titans have elite on a down-to-down pass defense (1st in defense dropback success rate), they have been susceptible to the big pass play, as they only rank 12th in defense Dropback EPA/play. That’s Josh Allen’s music, and if the Bills look to get new weapon Amari Cooper open deep, the Titans defense will probably give them an opportunity or two. Still, given the overall poor game environment and strong Titans defense, Cooper is probably best as a one-off large-field tournament play in DFS.

The Rams are 7 point favorites over the Raiders, but I’m not sure they should be. For all their faults, the Raiders have a strong defensive line that should generate pressure on Stafford often and should be capable of at least slowing down this Rams rushing attack. While the Raiders continue to play poorly on offense, especially running the ball, this Rams defense is below average in nearly every defensive category. With each team playing slowly and tilting more towards the run in recent weeks, I like the under and Raiders +7.

Toss-up games (-3 to +3)

The RedZone gods have looked upon us favorably this week, with a slew of toss-up games that should make for prime Sunday viewing. Leading that charge has to be Vikings-Lions, which is the matchup of the season so far in my books.

With the second-highest total on the week and a tight spread, this should be a phenomenal game to watch. For the Vikings offense, they face a Lions unit that is now without Aidan Hutchinson. Hutchinson was off to an incredible start, ranking 1st in pass rush win rate and 10th in run stop win rate among edge defenders. Without him, the Lions profile as a below average defense, and look particularly vulnerable against the run, as they already had a below average RSWR with Hutchinson. The Vikings look poised to take advantage, with a top 10 passing and rushing attack so far behind an above average offensive line. However, the Vikings have their own injury issues, as Aaron Jones may not be able to play this week. Jones has been one of the best rushers in the league so far, while Ty Chandler and newly-acquired Cam Akers have been poor. If Jones can’t go, the Vikings will probably need to throw slightly more, and they’ve already been a pass-first team to start the season. Darnold and company are among my favorite DFS stacks of the week.

While there’s fantasy fun with the Vikings offense, it’s the other side of the ball that breeds real football excitement. The Lions offensive juggernaut faces a Vikings defense that has embarrassed a slew of good offenses so far, with a blitzing attack that also takes away deep passes. Detroit will look to establish the ground game early, behind arguably the league’s best offensive line. But the Vikings are no pushovers, with the league’s best run stop win rate. If forced to the air, Jared Goff has led an efficient and consistent attack so far, but the Vikings defense is even better against the pass. Ultimately this matchup looks like a complete toss-up to me. If the Lions can win the ground battle, I like their chances to win the game. If not, then straight dropbacks from Goff on the road against this Flores defense is a scary proposition.

If Vikings-Lions is the top matchup, then Falcons-Seahawks is a close second. Each team plays lightning fast and has generated some of the highest PROE games of the season so far. Each team also has poor defensive lines, meaning Kirk Cousins and Geno Smith should have time to operate, which is certainly not always the case for Smith. In short, it’s hard to how this game fails, as each team should be consistently effective and has multiple players capable of generating long touchdowns. This looks like a classic play-all-the-dudes game, and will probably be one of the most popular games on the DFS slate Sunday, for good reason. Figuring out how to play it well will probably be the key of the week.

With lower totals than the above games, Packers-Texans and 49ers-Chiefs don’t quite offer the same fun fantasy environments. However, each of these offenses is very good and willing to throw the ball, with each ranking in the top half in PROE (counting only Jordan Love’s starts for the Packers).Similar to the Seahawks and Geno, C.J. Stroud is likely to have a rare game where he isn’t under constant pressure, as the Packers have one of the worst defensive lines in the league. While the Packers have been more effective at limiting deep plays than down-to-down consistency, there’s a solid chance we see Stroud’s ADOT rise this week, even with the Packers among the better teams at limiting big plays.

For the Chiefs and 49ers, this look prime to be another strong success rate game where each defense attempts to limit big play opportunities for the other. Still, each passing attack is ruthlessly efficient even without big plays, so there should be some fantasy goodness here. And if someone can score a long touchdown, this game could easily break into the tier one shootout category.

The last matchup I’ll write up here is the Eagles-Giants. While the total is much lower than the others, this game is neutral in almost every way. Each team plays roughly average in pace, throws at an average clip, has strong defensive lines but average defenses overall, and is roughly average on offense. However, there’s a slew of dynamic weapons in this game, with Malik Nabers returning, A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith at full health, and Saquon Barkley in a revenge game. Furthermore, with Dallas Goedert ruled out and the Giants funnel offense approach, we should know where the production is going when it hits. When asking ourselves, “what do you win when you win”, the scenarios where this game shoots out are extremely appealing.

Pace

Fast Pace Matchups

Seahawks-Falcons: Combined neutral pace = 53.6 seconds
Chargers-Cardinals: 55.5 seconds
Dolphins-Colts: 55.7 seconds

Slow Pace Matchups

Chiefs-49ers: 58.7 seconds
Commanders-Panthers: 58.1 seconds
Rams-Raiders: 58 seconds

OL/DL

DL Mismatches

Browns DL (51%/34%) vs Bengals OL (60%/70%)
Bills run defense (35%) vs Titans run blocking (69%)
Texans DL (50%/34%) vs Packers OL (61%/70%)

OL Mismatches

Commanders OL (62%/74%) vs Panthers DL (32%/27%)
Ravens OL (63%/74%) vs Bucs DL (38%/28%)
Vikings OL (63%/71%) vs Lions DL (48%/30%) - and now no Hutchinson
Falcons OL (62%/73%) vs Seahawks DL (42%/30%)
Chargers run blocking (72%) vs Cardinals run defense (29%)

DFS Plan of Attack

Each week, I’ll go through my plan of attack for the Draftkings main slate. This will usually consists of a few different subsections, listed below:

The Centerpiece (the player, team, or theme that the slate hinges on)
What to do with the chalk
Input Volatility
Games to target
Lineup starters

The Centerpiece: How to play Seahawks-Falcons

There’s very few paths that don’t lead to fantasy points here, with players from each them profiling as chalk. I’m comfortable with both playing those chalk pieces and getting unique around it and leveraging off of them with their teammates, but I do want to play this game as much as possible.

What to do with the chalk

Chalk to fade

Tony Pollard. Despite his solid resurgence, Pollard is back on the fade list this week. With Tyjae Spears out, he projects well, but the matchup is tough, with the Bills run defense a mismatch against the Titans OL. Furthermore, there are disaster paths here, as the Titans passing attack has been arguably the worst in the league so far. Assuming the Bills control the game, Pollard probably has very few paths to a GPP-winning score. With a plethora of similarly-priced options around him that also project well, he’s a fade for me.
Darnell Mooney. Mooney has been very good so far, earning volume at a similar rate to Drake London. But at $5600, he doesn’t project that well, and his ownership is likely being carried by the awesome game environment. Ray-Ray McCloud projects similarly, will probably be less-owned, and is cheaper. He also offers some leverage off of Juju, who looks to be a popular chalk play this week.
Juju Smith-Schuster. It’s a prove it to me week for Juju. Maybe he’s found his health and the fountain of youth, but with Travis Kelce competing for targets in a similar area of the field, and the 49ers profiling as a run funnel, I’m comfortable with a fade here.
Bengals defense. The Bengals and Bills defenses are in similar spots here, facing mediocre opponents that can’t pass the ball at all and that tilt run-heavy. However, the Bills defense is likely more talented and they offer some leverage against a chalk Tony Pollard that I think is likely to disappoint. For only $200 more, I prefer just playing the Bills.

Priority Chalk

Kenneth Walker. Walker has a fantastic role, profiling as a 3-down back on a fast-paced offense that’s in the best game environment of the week. He’s also been good so far, improving his consistency and maintaining his home-run rush ability from seasons past. In any lineup where I’m not playing the Seahawks passing game, Walker will be at the forefront of my mind.
Drake London. London has one of the best red zone roles in football and is earning heavy volume in the splash zone. With a phenomenal game environment around him, London has a higher floor and ceiling than any other receiver than Justin Jefferson this week.
Justin Jefferson. Speaking of the best WR in football, he’s been dominant on a per route basis so far, and the Vikings have yet to be pushed. Their toughest test of the season comes this week, and if the Lions can push them, or the Vikings tilt more to the pass due to Aaron Jones’ injury, then JJ’s ceiling is nuclear.

Input Volatility

Seahawks-Falcons. Both teams play fast, but each has alternated between the pass-first and run-first approaches this year. I’m highly confident the game will be among the highest scoring on the week, but have little confidence in whether either team will tilt towards the run or the pass. I plan to play more lineups than usual this week to take account for that.
Anthony Richardson to Josh Downs. Most projections have a big knock on Downs this week due to his poor stylistic fit with Downs. However, beat writers were saying Downs was the best player in training camp before his injury, and the Colts have treated him like a true alpha #1 receiver in game plans so far. It’s a volatile situation, but one I want to take a strong stand on in large-field tournaments.

Games to Target

Falcons-Seahawks. I think I’ve said enough here. I’m playing this game as much as I can.
Vikings-Lions. There’s path to shootouts here, and everyone is viable. I love Darnold doubles, Lions run game + Jefferson correlations, and Aaron Jones + Jameson Williams correlations. Somewhat tricky to play, but with a high ceiling.
Commanders-Panthers. With a 30 point total, the Commanders are in the best spot of the week. The points are coming, but the distribution will be key. On the Panthers side, they should also have success through the ground and through the air. Still, with Diontae Johnson banged up, and the large spread, I’m concerned this turns into a run-first blowout in most outcomes.
Texans-Packers. I’m confident the Texans will have success offensively. If the Packers can push them, there’s outcomes where Stroud has his best game of the year behind some of the cleanest pockets he’s seen so far. Mixon is among my favorite running back leverage plays on the week.
Eagles-Giants. This game probably falls short in most outcomes, but the concentrated nature of each teams’ offense increases our chances of winning when it shoots out.

Lineup starters

Cousins + London + McCloud + one of Metcalf/KW3
Geno + Metcalf + one of Lockett/JSN/Fant + one of London/Bijan
Darnold + Jefferson + Addison + one of Jameson/Monty/Gibbs
J Daniels + Ertz + Terry + Hubbard
J Daniels + Terry
Stroud + two of Diggs/Dell/Schultz + Reed
Hurts + two of AJB/Devonta/Calcaterra + Nabers
Jones + Nabers + one of Saquon/AJB/Devonta
Burrow + Chase + Higgins
Burrow + Chase + secondary correlations
A Richardson + Downs + one of Tyreek/Waddle/Achane
Jameson + Aaron Jones
KW3 + London
Metcalf + Bijan
Monty + Jefferson

Redraft Recommendations

Five Buys (players to trade for)

Garrett Wilson - Public sentiment is that Davante Adams is the new #1 WR for the Jets. And no offense to Adams, but Wilson is probably just a better receiver than him at this point in their careers. I’m sure Adams will get his, and the mind meld he and Rodgers have is special. But Wilson is still an extremely talented player that likely sees less double coverage and shadow coverage going forward.
Jahmyr Gibbs - I feel like I’m writing Gibbs up every week, but he’s just such a clear buy. He’s already been producing solidly, even if he hasn’t had a ceiling game yet. That could come at any time (though I don’t like his chances this week vs Minnesota). Add in that a Monty injury probably makes him the #1 RB in all of football and he continues to be one of my favorite buys.
D.K. Metcalf - Metcalf is popping in buy low models and has a smash matchup vs the Falcons this week. He’s the locked-in WR1 for one of the fastest pace and pass-heaviest teams in the league.
Dalton Kincaid - Kincaid’s route participation has bounced back from his injury-induced lower rates from earlier this season, and he’s still earning volume on a per-route basis at an elite level. The addition of Amari Cooper probably takes some of his season-long ceiling away, but Cooper has never been a true #1 and remains an inconsistent player. With Cooper drawing some coverage away, I like Kincaid to continue to be a steady volume-earner with roughly the same spike week potential.
The Dolphins - With Tua likely to return in a week or two, we could quickly see this offense re-ascend to a top ten unit.

Five Sells (players to trade away)

Amon Ra St. Brown - ARSB has been good this year, but he hasn’t been the same player as last year, earning less volume and being significantly less efficient after the catch. With Laporta probably nearing full health, the high-end ceiling outcomes for ARSB are lower than we expected. I’d consider flipping for Garrett Wilson (and probably getting a small piece with it).
Juju Smith-Schuster - Again, it’s a prove it approach for me. If you can flip JuJu for a player you have more confidence in as a weekly starter, I’d strongly consider that.
Michael Pittman - Josh Downs has become the clear #1 WR for the Colts, both from a target earning and efficiency standpoint, and Shane Steichen is gameplanning that way. If Richardson is going to lead this offense, Pittman is probably the player hurt the most by it. With a touchdown in each of his last two weeks, this might be a classic sell high (or medium) spot.
Mark Andrews - Andrews got back up to a 60% route share last week and scored his first touchdown of the season. Still, 60% is nowhere close to elite, and the Ravens are still a run-first team.
Cooper Kupp - Maybe this is a hot take, but catching 14 passes for 110 yards and a touchdown on 21 targets is both awesome… and not entirely bullish for future production. If someone is buying the returning from injury optimism on Kupp, I’d happily trade that away for a player with a stronger guarantee of production. Tee Higgins, Stefon Diggs, and potentially even Garrett Wilson all come to mind.

Week-ahead waiver targets

Defense: Texans - Their down to a 50% rostered rate ahead of their matchup with Green Bay. Next week they get a Colts offense likely to be lead by Anthony Richardson that may also be without Jonathan Taylor.
Kicker: Will Reichard - The Vikings get the Rams porous defense next week, and they’ll likely have one of the highest totals on the week. Reichard is only 9% rostered and is startable vs the Lions this week as well.
Tight End: Colby Parkinson - Parkinson is running routes at a near elite rate for the Rams, and they get the Vikings next week, where they project to be big underdogs. Parkinson should have one of the best floors among TE streamers.
Wide Receiver: Ray-Ray McCloud - In addition to the bonanza matchup vs the Seahawks this week, McCloud gets the Bucs next week, which will also likely be one of the highest totaled games. As long as the Falcons continue to play fast and throw often, he’s in player as a weekly flex option.
Running back: Tyler Allegier - Allegier is somehow only 39% rostered despite getting similar rushing work to Bijan Robinson and being efficient on it. Allegier is both a flex option vs the Bucs next week, and he remains one of the best contingent upside bets in fantasy.
Quarterback: Trevor Lawrence - Lawrence gets a weak Green Bay defense next week in a game where the Jags will likely need to score a lot of points to compete.

Reducing Uncertainty

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