The Sketch: Week 12

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Nov 24, 2024

Week 12 Data

This chart is intended to be a one-stop shop for each matchup that details a bunch of key factors to the game, including O/U, team implied points, pace, team pass/rush rates, each teams offensive/defensive efficiency, and the strength of each teams offensive/defensive lines.¹ Below the chart, I’ll analyze a few key points that stand out.

Game Environment

Each week, this section will include analysis on each team’s projected points, pace, and matchup for their upcoming game.

Totals

Each week, I break matchups down into Slight Favorites, Clear Favorites, and Toss-up games, as those teams (that also have high O/Us) are who we want to target most.²

Slight Favorites (-3.5 to -6.5)

There’s five slight favorites this week, with four of those falling on the main slate. Of the main slate matchups, the Packers lead the way, but only with an implied team total of 25 and an O/U of 44.5. Much of that has to do with the absence of Brock Purdy, as the O/U dropped by 3+ following that news. Still, the Packers are in a decent spot here, as the 49ers defense has only been roughly average this year. Given the relative weakness of the 49ers is their rushing defense, I’d expect the Packers to primarily attack on the ground, and it’s unlikely we get a high PROE week for Jordan Love and company. However, while the 49ers are a slightly above average pass defense, they aren’t elite, and Love could easily hit some big plays against them. For DFS, I expect moderate interest and ownership on Jacobs, the minimum-priced Brandon Allen at QB, and CMC. I doubt the Sims like it, but I do think this game has more upside than meets the eye, as we’ve seen Kyle Shanahan elevate QBs time and time again.

The Bucs are next, with a 24-point total but a slightly below average 41.5 O/U, as they face off against a Tommy Devito-led Giants "offense. The Bucs have simply been a good offense this year, as they are effective both rushing and passing, and are one of the few teams with a positive PROE. Defensively, the Giants are average against the pass, with a strong pass rush, but vulnerable to the run. The Bucs should be able to run effectively here, and I expect a slightly higher rushing rate than normal. Still, the Bucs can also attack via the air, and their high PROE keeps Baker and company in play this week, which includes the return of Mike Evans. Unfortunately, Evans is still fully-priced at $7000 in DFS, so we aren’t getting an injury-return discount. I doubt I play this stack this week, but there are paths to Baker double stack with Tyrone Tracy leading to ceiling outcomes, especially given the Bucs poor run defense.

The Broncos are third of the slight favorites, with a 23.75 total in good matchup vs a poor Raiders team. Honestly, I was a bit surprised to see the Broncos only favored by 6 (and down to 5.5 in some places), given how these teams match up. The Broncos have dominant trench play, with arguably the best pass rush and pass blocking in the league. The Raiders have a horrendous offensive line, and their strong defensive line is likely to be a bit muted against this Broncos unit. Ultimately, this is a game where I want to play the opposite side of the market in DFS. With the Broncos passing game and the Raiders both projecting for ownership, my favorite play is the defense for either team, as a leverage play.

The Vikings are the final slight favorite on the main slate, but with a shockingly low 21.5 team total and 39.5 O/U, as they face the Bears. This isn’t surprising, given each team has one of the better defenses in the league, and arguably the two best defensive pass units. It’s hard to see paths to a shootout in this game, and the two defenses are probably the best plays in DFS. Still, I’m always willing to leave a light on for Justin Jefferson, who could drag along Sam Darnold to an efficient week against a strong defense. If I absolutely love the chalk, I could see playing one Vikings stack, but I doubt I end up there this week.

Clear Favorites (-7 or more)

It’s one of the strongest weeks for clear favorites of the year, and that’s coupled with a heavy bye week, and a poor week for slight favorites. To me, that means it’s more likely than usual that the best stack of the week comes from a clear favorite that smashes their opponent. Leading off that candidate list is none other than the Lions, who lead the league in simply demolishing their opponent. This week, they have a 29 point total, with the highest O/U of the week at 50.5. It’s a great matchup, despite a surging Colts defense that now ranks as an above average run defense and average pass defense unit on the year. However, we should still expect the Lions to score, as that is simply what they do. The challenge, as always, is finding where those points are going to come through. I intend to spend some more time than usual on the individual matchups this week, and read through Ryan Heath and Jacob Gibbs work, as they have a good feel for how each teams scheme will impact production. Ultimately, I will certainly be playing at least one stack of this game, and probably more.

Next up is the Commanders, who despite a recent slump, remain one of the best offenses on the year. They get a matchup vs a Cowboys team that is dangerously close to giving up on the season. It’s also a revenge game for Dan Quinn, who has improved the Commanders defense to a decent unit with a strong pass rush. Offensively, I expect the Commanders to lean towards the run, as the Cowboys are most vulnerable there. Still, even with Micah Parsons back, the Cowboys aren’t an elite pass defense, and Jayden Daniels and company are certainly capable of putting together a monstrous performance. Ultimately, I probably only get to a stack of this game if there’s a leverage opportunity against Brian Robinson. Even though I agree he’s in a good spot, his limited passing role and consistent but inexplosive rushing style can easily lead to good but non-GPP winning outcomes.

The Dolphins are third, with a 27 point total and 46.5 O/U. Tua’s return has revitalized the offense, and he’s topped at least 200 yards and one touchdown in all four of his recent starts, and had a ceiling performance last week vs the Raiders. Facing a Patriots defense that is worse vs the pass than the run, but below average overall, it’s easy to see paths where the Dolphins score through the air and the ground. Adding a bit of juice into the O/U is Drake Maye, who has made the Patriots offense fun and explosive, even with a high rate of negative plays and turnovers. Ultimately, I view this game as a off-brand version of the Lions-Colts game, where the Dolphins offense isn’t quite as good, but slightly more concentrated, and the Patriots are a similar helio-centric offense that revolves around a explosive but inconsistent QB. I will want to see how the ownership falls and will likely rely on heavily on the Sims when choosing between this game and Lions-Colts.

The Chiefs are fourth, but have a sterling matchup against a Panthers defense that is vulnerable on the ground and through the air. Similarly to the Lions and Dolphins, I expect the Chiefs to score, but it could flow through multiple options. The most likely option is Kareem Hunt, who will likely be one of the best-projected and most-owned plays on the slate. It’s easy to see why, as the Chiefs lead the league in rushing success rate, and the Panthers are dead last in the league in defense rushing success rate. Hunt should carve this Panthers defense up like a precursor to a Thanksgiving Turkey, and he’s undoubtedly a strong play this week. Still, there are probably paths to a Mahomes ceiling game, given the Chiefs high PROE and the Panthers poor passing defense. But with the Chiefs plethora of options, and the Panthers unlikely to push them, it’s a difficult leverage play to make against Hunt, absent an occasional large-field lineup or two.

The Texans are last on the list, with a 24.25 total and 40.5 O/U. Last week was the arguably the most bullish week of the season for the Texans passing attack, as they embraced a pass-first philosophy despite a matchup against a run-funnel opponent.

They also may have solved their protection issues, which have arguably been an even bigger thorn in their side than the suboptimal coaching. If these two things are both true, then we are entering a world where the Texans are one of the best passing attacks (and offenses) in the league. Unfortunately, they face a difficult matchup this week, vs a Titans defense that is among the better units in the league. However… the Titans are better against the run, and despite ranking solidly in defensive passing success rate, have been vulnerable to deep passing plays. It’s risky, but there are outcomes where Nico Collins and Tank Dell hit on some deep plays, and a (finally) cheaper C.J. Stroud is carried to a ceiling outcome.

Toss-up Games (-3 to +3)

It’s a light week for toss-up games, with only one on the main slate. Luckily, it’s a fun one, with the Seahawks and Cardinals facing off with a 47.5 O/U. The Cardinals are one point favorites, and are simply one of better offenses in the league, and they also play at a fast pace. The Seahawks play even faster, and have a high PROE, even if they haven’t been quite as efficient. Defensively, both teams are neutral to bad, setting this up as a fun, fast-paced game, where either offense can score. The most likely outcome is probably a Cardinals run-heavy attack coupled with a Seahawks pass-heavy attack, which is how the market is currently pricing it in ownership. However, it’s easy to also see the opposite path as well. Ultimately, I want to play this game and will play around with the Sims to figure out the best way to do it.

Pace

There’s six teams on bye this week, and each plays at a faster than average neutral pace, which sets up week 12 to be one of the slowest-pace games of the year.

Fast Pace Matchups

Cardinals-Seahawks: Combined neutral pace = 53.6 seconds
Commanders-Cowboys: 54.8 seconds

Slow Pace Matchups

Texans-Titans: 60.0 seconds
Packers-49ers: 59.7
Chiefs-Panthers: 59.0

OL/DL

DL Mismatches

Commanders pass rush vs Cowboys pass blocking
Titans pass rush vs Texans pass blocking
Texans DL vs Titans OL
Broncos DL vs Raiders OL
Packers run defense vs 49ers run blocking

OL Mismatches

Chiefs OL vs Panthers DL
Commanders run blocking vs Cowboys pass blocking
Cowboys run blocking vs Commanders run defense
Ravens pass blocking vs Chargers pass rush

DFS Plan of Attack

The Centerpiece: Clear Favorite Week

With the strength of the slate concentrated in clear favorites, I want to be less focused on game stacking this week, and more willing to play the best plays from the teams with the highest totals. I also want to be conscious of potential leverage opportunities with teammates on the clear favorite teams.

What to do with the chalk

Chalk to fade

Raiders-Broncos. Why? Why are we so excited to play players in a game with a 41.5 O/U?
Brian Robinson. I’m a fan of BRob, and think he’s a better running back than he’s given credit for. I also think he’s in a very good spot here. Still, his style of play makes him less likely to generate ceiling outcomes in full PPR scoring, and Kareem Hunt is a similar spot and projects better. Ultimately pairing Hunt with a Commanders pass-catcher is an enticing leverage opportunity (or Robinson with a Chiefs pass-catcher if you prefer Robinson to Hunt).
Seahawks passing stacks. I think we get some steam on these ownerships, as the clear way to play that game is a Geno double with James Conner or Trey McBride coming back. If I’m doing that, I want to be sure to have a contrarian piece or two early.

Priority Chalk

Kareem Hunt. He’s the best projected value on the slate, in the best matchup, on a clear favorite with one of the best team totals on the week. His style of plays raises his floor and ceiling relative to Brian Robinson, who is priced similarly to him. Still… if you had it the opposite, I’d get it, as it’s a more riskier but potentially higher leveraged outcome.
Broncos Defense. I don’t like the Broncos defense more than the Vikings or Texans, who are similarly priced. However, if Meyers and Bowers are chalk, as well as Sutton, we get much more leverage by playing the Broncos than the others.

Games/Teams to Target

Lions/Colts. It’s the highest O/U on the week, with only moderate ownership due to Detroit’s diversified approach the the Colts heliocentric offense. I want to lean into the uncertainly/volatility here.
Seahawks-Cardinals. It’ll likely be the chalkiest game of the week, with a clear path to playing it. I’m willing to play that path with some early contrarian pieces, and willing to flip to Cardinals passing stack and KW3 if my other pieces fail early.
Dolphins-Patriots. A discount version of Lions/Colts, with cheaper prices and a more concentrated offense increasing the ownership. I don’t like it as much, but it’s still worth playing.
The Commanders and Chiefs. Each is clear favorites with strong chalk RBs in good matchups, who are priced similarly. I want to play each, but prefer Hunt and the Chiefs, and want to avoid playing them together.
The Texans. If the offensive line and pass-heavy gameplan sticks, there’s upside for a ceiling performance for Stroud and company here, and with very little ownership.

Lineup starters

Geno + JSN + Metcalf + one of Conner/McBride
Kyler + McBride + KW3
Tua + two of Tyreek/Achane/Jonnu + Henry
Maye + Henry + Achane
Richardson + one of Downs/Pittman + one or two of Gibbs/Monty/ARSB/Laporta
Goff + two of ARSB/Laporta/Gibbs/Jamo + one of Downs/Pittman (or no bring back)
Stroud + Nico + one of Ridley/Pollard (or no bring back)
Stroud + Nico + Dell + one of Ridley/Pollard (or no bring back)
J Daniels + two of N Brown/Terry/Ertz + CD Lamb
P Mahomes + two of Kelce/Hopkins/Worthy
Mini correlations: Hunt + N Brown, B Robinson + Kelce/Hopkins, Nico + Ridley/Pollard, Achane + Henry, Conner + JSN, KW3 + McBride, Lions player + Downs/Pittman

Redraft Recommendations

Five Buys (players to trade for)

With most trade deadlines this week, this will be the last week for five buys and five sells.

The Texans - For those of you who’ve read all season, you’ll know that the Texans have consistently underperformed my high expectation for them. They’ve refused to embrace early down passing, and are one of the biggest believers in the 2nd and long run. Couple those coaching issues with a horrific offensive line and injuries to all of the Texans primary weapons, and it’s been a rough season. However, with Nico Collins return last week, it was a whole new world, even if the box score didn’t reflect it. There’s no guarantee this sticks, but with matchups against the two biggest pass funnel defenses in the league down the stretch, including the Ravens in championship week, I’m willing to give the Texans one more go.
Tyrone Tracy - As I said last week, Tracy will have an easier schedule going forward. Even despite the Giants poor overall unit, Tracy has flashed an explosive dual-threat skillset.
Trey McBride - McBride still has yet to post a receiving touchdown this year, but he’s averaging 7.2 targets, 5.4 receptions, and 61.3 yards per game. Those are elite numbers. With no difficult matchups down the stretch, and the Panthers in championship week, McBride is arguably the TE1 the rest of the way.
Jayden Reed - It’s been a quiet month and a half for Reed, scoring no more than 15 half-ppr points since week four. Still, Reed is talented, Jordan Love is healthier than he’s been all season, and the Packers have a solid schedule for WRs down the stretch, including potential shootout matchups in a dome vs the Lions and Vikings.
The Vikings defense - If you’re in the hunt, find a way to get them. They’ve given up a *total* of 27 points over their last three games, and are simply one of the best and most productive fantasy defenses in recent memory.

Five Sells (players to trade away)

The Dolphins passing game - Tua and the Dolphins have a tough schedule down the stretch, facing the Packers, Jets, Texans, 49ers, and Browns.
Steelers RBs - It’s a brutal stretch for the Steelers the rest of the way after week 13 vs Cincy (which is a cupcake). From week 14 on, the Steelers face the Browns, Eagles, Ravens, and Chiefs, which all rank top-ten vs the run.
Lions WRs - The Lions receivers face an absolute gauntlet from week 13-17, facing the Bears (1st in defensive EPA/dropback, 2nd in points allowed to WRs), Packers (10th/12th), Bills (12th/8th) , Bears (1st/2nd), and 49ers (11th/13th). Meanwhile, each of those defenses is far more vulnerable to running backs, which will probably reinforce the Lions run-first tendencies.
The Rams passing attack - Tough schedule down the stretch for the Rams, with the 49ers, Jets, Saints, and Bills. Stafford and company are talented enough to produce vs anybody, but I would expect the Rams to shift more towards the run in these matchups, potentially limiting Kupp and Puka’s ceilings.
Broncos RBs - My Audric Estime love went up in complete flames last week, with Sean Payton pulling the rug after some positive coachspeak for what feels like the 99th time. Sigh. However, Javonte Williams put together a strong performance in the easy matchup, which is a small comfort. Unfortunately, with the Browns, bye week, Colts, and Chargers through week 16. I’d look to sell high on Javonte.

Week-ahead waiver targets

Defense: Bills - The Cowboys have had a rough year, but at 28% owned and with a matchup vs Tommy DeVito and the Giants next week, there are solid streaming candidate.
Kicker: Spencer Schrader - Schrader is up to 33% rostered, which is 30% more than last week, but still far too low. He gets the Panthers this week, with the Raiders on tap next week. Each is a top five matchup for kickers.
Tight End: Mike Gesicki - Gesicki is owned in only 19% of leagues, and has a matchup against the Steelers next week. The Steelers are vulnerable to tight end and slot receiver production, where Gesicki often resides.
Wide Receiver: Michael Pittman - Pittman’s ownership has fallen to 75%, as people continue to be leery of Anthony Richardson. Still, Pittman is probably the most talented receiver on the waiver wire in your league, and a matchup against the Patriots is nothing to fear. It’s volatile, but a solid fill-in option.
Running back: Jonathan Brooks - Brooks will finally make his season debut in week 12, but it’ll come against a tough Chiefs defense. However, Brooks will get a Bucs’ defense vulnerable to the run next week, and has a slew of favorable matchups in the fantasy playoffs.
Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers- If the Texans were my biggest disappointment this year, the Jets are just behind them. Rodgers has been at the forefront of that, simply refusing to play consistently or efficiently. However… the Jets get a good matchup vs the Seahawks next week, and face the pass-funnel Jaguars in round one of the playoffs. It’s probably the Last Dance for Rodgers and Adams, but there could be just a bit of magic left.

Best Ball

Playoff Best Ball has returned, and I’ll have some content out starting next week on it. For now, I’d recommend this primer from Jakob Sanderson.

Reducing Uncertainty

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