The Sketch: Week 11

George Pickens, Superstar

Nov 17, 2024

Week 11 Data

This chart is intended to be a one-stop shop for each matchup that details a bunch of key factors to the game, including O/U, team implied points, pace, team pass/rush rates, each teams offensive/defensive efficiency, and the strength of each teams offensive/defensive lines.¹ Below the chart, I’ll analyze a few key points that stand out.

Game Environment

Each week, this section will include analysis on each team’s projected points, pace, and matchup for their upcoming game.

Totals

Each week, I break matchups down into Slight Favorites, Clear Favorites, and Toss-up games, as those teams (that also have high O/Us) are who we want to target most.²

Slight Favorites (-3.5 to -6.5)

There’s six slight favorites this week, with five of those falling on the main slate. Of the main slate matchups, the 49ers lead the way (again), with both the highest O/U and highest implied team total. With nearly of all their weapons back, and Jajuan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall filling in for Brandon Aiyuk, they are difficult to project. However, they are also one of the best favorites to lead the slate in points scored. If Seattle can push back, there’s some fun shootout paths here.

After the 49ers, it’s a big lumping of teams in the second tier.

The Rams have the highest implied team total (24), and they get a fast-pace matchup against Drake Maye and the Patriots. While the O/U is below average (43.5), if Maye can again provide a few explosive plays, the Patriots could be competitive and push the Rams a bit.

The Jets are next, with a 23.75 implied total. The Jets have been the most frustrating team for me this year, and especially over the last three weeks, as they’ve alternated between mediocrity, explosiveness, and complete ineptitude. Fun fun. All of that said, the matchup with the Colts is a good one. Defensively, the Colts are roughly average, and slightly better against the run than the pass. Offensively, they are boom-or-bust with Anthony Richardson under center. This has led to high play volume games for opposing offenses, as Richardson is among the least likely QBs in the league to chain together a deliberate, clock-eating drive. That could be good news for Rodgers and company, and I’m likely playing at least one Rodgers stack in DFS again.

The Packers are in an interesting divisional matchups with their Bears, who just fired their offensive coordinator. That leads to some uncertainty on the Bears offensive approach. The Packers defense has been among the worst in the league in success rate, but they do a solid job of limiting big plays. My (low confidence) read here is that the Bears emphasize short, quick throws, and attempt to establish a consistent “just gain positive yardage” offense. In other words, hide Caleb Williams a bit. I also would not be surprised if Roschon Johnson gets a bit more run, as D’Andre Swift’s low success rate style would not pair well with this new offensive philosophy. Ultimately though, the Packers are the favorite and who this section is supposed to be about. On that front, the Bears pass defense is arguably the best in the league, and Jordan Love has been good-not-great this year. The Bears have been much weaker against the run, though mostly due to big plays. That isn’t exactly Josh Jacobs music, but it’s easy to envision a scenario where Jacobs is gashing the Bears for runs of 10 and 15 yards in a heavy-volume script. If I play anyone from this game in DFS, it’ll likely be Jacobs.

The Vikings are fresh off a 12-7 win over arguably the worst team in football. Eat it, haters. With the clock rapidly approaching midnight (and arguably past it) on Sam Darnold’s Cinderella season, the Vikings have drastically slowed down and reduced their PROE on offense. This is a defensive football team, Justin Jefferson and gang be damned. And it’s hard to fault them for it, with a defense that ranks 3rd in defensive EPA/dropback, 8th in dropback success rate, 1st in defensive rush EPA, and 2nd in rush success rate. It’s an elite unit. Adding to the Vikings’ offensive woes is a matchup against a Titans team that, for its offensive ineptitude, has a very good defense. With a strong tilt to the run offensively, the Titans attempt to limit possessions as much as possible and rely on Tony Pollard and the defense to carry them to a close game, and hope it falls in their favor. That looks to be the most likely path here.

Clear Favorites (-7 or more)

There’s only three clear favorites this week, and only two on the main slate. The Lions *easily* lead the way, with a massive 30.25 implied total and are 14 point favorites. The Jaguars are horrid all-around, and the wide spread certainly seems like the Lions will get to stick with their preferred run-first attack this week. However… the Jaguars pass defense has been much worse than their run defense. If the Lions do elect to attack via the air, they will almost certainly have success. Given their massive total, I’m planning to lock at least one Lions player in every DFS lineup, and I’ll consider some passing stacks with Goff and company as well.

The Dolphins are the other clear favorite, and it’s mostly due to their opponent. The Raiders have one of the worst offenses in the league, and a roughly average defense that consistently wastes a strong effort from its defensive line. That’s music to the Dolphins ears, as Tua Tagovailoa leads a quick strike attack that gets the ball out quickly. Each of Tyreek Hill and Devon Achane are in good spots this week, and it’s at least plausible that Jaylen Waddle’s performance can improve against this defense.

Toss-up Games (-3 to +3)

It’s one of the better toss-up weeks we’ve had recently, with four on the main slate. The Ravens-Steelers lead the way, with a 48.5 O/U and a fun stylistic matchup. The Ravens are 3-point favorites, with a nearly unstoppable offense so far. But the Steelers have a very good defense without a clear weakness for the Ravens to attack. On the other side, the Ravens are a massive pass funnel, ranking 2nd in defense rush EPA and 1st in success rate, but 30th in defense pass EPA and 24th un success rate. The Ravens also have a weak defensive line. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson and Justin Fields have led Pittsburgh to an explosive but inconsistent passing attack that pairs nicely with a roughly average rushing unit. That attack funnels through George Pickens, who ranks 12th in ESPN’s open score and 17th in catch score. Even playing a true X-role, which is usually the most difficult receiver position, Pickens gets open often and dominates on contested catches. He’s a superstar, and this matchup sets up a true coming out party. Ultimately, I expect Wilson and the Steelers to attack Baltimore through the air as much as possible, and I’m not betting against this Ravens attack until someone proves me otherwise. It should be a fun game, both from a fantasy and real football standpoint.

Bengals-Chargers is not on the main slate, but second in O/U, and like Ravens-Steelers, this should be a fun one, so I’m writing about it. The Chargers have a strong defensive unit, while Justin Herbert and J.K. Dobbins make up for the overall offensive inconsistency with explosive plays. The pairing is a strong combination, and reaffirms the sentiment that Jim Harbaugh is a good coach. On the Bengals side, they essentially have one good aspect to their team. The passing attack. But man, is it something. Despite no help from the rest of the team, Joe Burrow and company are 2nd in dropback success rate, and 3rd in dropback EPA. The Chargers strong defense will undoubtedly be a difficult test, but much like the Ravens offense, I simply don’t want to bet against Joe and Ja’marr, and Tee Higgins is back this week too. While there are paths to a Chargers suffocating win here, I hope we get a display of Burrow and Herbert dueling it downfield.

Chiefs-Bills in third in O/U, which just goes to show us how quickly things can change. The Bills are two point favorites, but it’s insane to me how similar these two teams are.

Each offense is essentially built on ruthless efficiency, which is in direct contrast to their explosive offensive approaches from years past. On defense, they take a similar approach, effectively limiting big plays while ranking slightly below average in success rate. Each team is solid in the trenches, and is close to neutral in PROE. Ultimately, this game feels like if two Tom Brady Patriots team played each other. No real weaknesses, and a philosophy meant to slowly destroy you over the course of 60 minutes. While it isn’t peak Bills-Chiefs, it’s hard not to be excited about it.

Broncos-Falcons and Saints-Browns are the last two on the week. Neither is overly exciting, but if I had to pick one it would be Falcons-Broncos. The Broncos have one of the best offensive lines in the league, and a Golem now starting at running back. Meanwhile, the Falcons have a porous defensive line that is bottom-five in defensive rushing success rate. If Audric Estime is good, he could easily turn in a quintessential Josh Jacobs week, ripping 10 and 15 yard gains off at will. On the Falcons offensive side, they’ve been a great unit this year on both the ground and in the air. The Broncos defense is also awesome, and I have little confidence in projecting which side will get the better of this matchup.

Saints-Browns is a hard one to get excited about, given how solid each team’s pass defense has been, and how poor their offenses have been. If there is fantasy fun, it’s likely to come in the form of explosive rushes, as the Saints have a horrid run defense, and the Browns are only average. I don’t think Nick Chubb will make my player pool, but I’ve seen (and played) much thinner large-field GPP bets.

Pace

Fast Pace Matchups

Jets-Colts: Combined neutral pace = 54.1 seconds
Falcons-Broncos: 54.1 seconds
Rams-Patriots: 55.8

Slow Pace Matchups

Bengals-Chargers: 60.7
Vikings-Titans: 60.6
Dolphins-Raiders: 59.5 seconds

OL/DL

DL Mismatches

Rams run defense vs Patriots run blocking
Browns pass rush vs Saints pass blocking
Vikings DL vs Titans OL
49ers DL vs Seahawks OL
Chargers run defense vs Bengals run blocking

OL Mismatches

Lions OL vs Jags DL
Broncos OL vs Falcons DL

DFS Plan of Attack

Each week, I’ll go through my plan of attack for the Draftkings main slate. This will usually consists of a few different subsections, listed below:

The Centerpiece (the player, team, or theme that the slate hinges on)
What to do with the chalk
Input Volatility
Games to target
Lineup starters

The Centerpiece: Old Star RB Week

It’s 2024 and Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara are far atop the values list for most sites. And it’s for good reason, as each has a locked in three down role that allows for legendary upside each week. I’m open to playing each, though I prefer CMC by a decent amount, and I expect it’ll be a bit too chalky to play both in most lineups, as there aren’t many mid-priced or cheap WRs projecting well.

What to do with the chalk

Chalk to fade

The chalk WRs. At WR, the chalk is the chalk because they fit well with the expensive RBs that are the best values on the slate. For most of these guys, I would prefer getting away from them, unless I’m stacking that game. There are multiple ways to play the expensive RBs without these specific cheaper WRs, and there are at least a few ways to flip the build. With that many outs, I want to really lean into the fragile nature of these projections and avoid them if at all possible.
Jonnu Smith and AJ Barner. Similarly to the chalk WRs, Smith and Barner’s ownership is being brought up by their game environments. With a slew of other cheap options priced around them, I’d prefer playing these guys in stack or mini correlations only.

Priority Chalk

Christian McCaffrey. He was back in his elite role last week, and the 49ers have the second-highest implied team total on the week, in a potential shootout vs the fast-paced and pass-heavy Seahawks. There’s few paths to complete failure here, and he probably has the highest ceiling on the slate.
Russell Wilson. Russ just meets the chalk threshold, but his primary weapon George Pickens does not. Despite Pickens playing like one of the best WRs in the league, and the Ravens being one of the worst pass defenses in the league, we are getting non-chalk combined ownership on them. This is almost certainly due to market uncertainty over which talented Ravens player to play, which is a poor reason.

Games/Teams to Target

The Lions. With a whopping 30.25 implied team total, it’s hard to see many scenarios where at least one Lions player isn’t smashing. Gibbs and Monty both project good, but not great, which probably keeps their ownership down. In a median value scenario, that makes sense, but if the touchdowns concentrate on just one of them, that player is probably one of the best plays on the slate. As usual, there’s some input volatility here, and I want to lean into it.
Ravens-Steelers. Median projections are keeping this game from chalk ownership, despite the highest total on the week and a clear path for the Steelers to attack. It’s difficult to know who to bring back on the Ravens side, as they have a wealth of talented skill players and the best dual threat QB in the league. Ultimately a skinny game stack of Russ + Pickens + Zay Flowers looks most appealing. We’ll see what the sims have to say, but I will almost certainly be playing this game on one of my core teams.
49ers-Seahawks. With George Kittle likely out, it should be a bit easier to play this game, which comes with a solid 47.5 point total. However, there are still a plethora of weapons involved for both teams, which makes it challenging to build as just one of a few hand build lineups. Ultimately, I think this game is better suited to large-field tournaments, but will probably play also play it in one of my main few lineups.
Broncos-Falcons? I’ll say up front that I’m not a full game-stacking this matchup. However, I’m much higher on Audric Estime than most, and this is a phenomenal matchup for the Broncos rushing attack. There’s input volatility here, as Estime got 60% of the rushes and 20% of the routes last week, and most sites are projecting a similar split this week. However, there was some positive coach-speak on Estime, and in my opinion, he’s clearly their most talented rusher. If his carry share increased, he would easily project as a solid-good value, and at $4500, flips the chalk build completely on its head. With Drake London a neutral value on most sites, and coming with low ownership, I’m intrigued by the mini correlation here. If the Broncos control the game on the ground (and Estime scores a touchdown or two), then London could see a monster target game.
The Rams and Dolphins. Neither of these games projects that well, with totals of only 43.5 points, and in most scenarios, I don’t think they lead to GPP-winning outcomes. However, I do think both Stafford and Tua are set up well to mitigate what the opposing defense does well. In Miami’s case, getting the ball out quick is a feature of their offense, and negates the only strong part of the Raiders defense (a good DL). For the Rams, they have been ultra-sensitive to pressure, but very efficient when the pocket is clean. With Puka and Kupp back at full health, leaning into an efficient Rams passing attack at low ownerships would flip the chalk build.

Lineup starters

Russ + Pickens + one Ravens skill player
Russ + Pickens + one of Calvin Austin/Pat Freiermuth/Darnell Washington + one Ravens skill player
Lamar + Zay + one of Bateman/Andrews + Pickens
Purdy + two or three of CMC/Deebo/Jennings/Pearsall/Saubert + one of Metcalf/KW3/JSN
Geno + Metcalf + one of Barner/JSN + one or two of CMC/Deebo/Jennings/Pearsall
Stafford + Puka + one of Kupp/Allen + one of Boutte/Henry
Maye + Henry + Boutte + Puka
Tua + two of Achane/Tyreek/Jonnu + one of Jakobi/Bowers
Rodgers + one of Adams/Wilson + Conklin
Jameis + Tillman + Moore + Kamara
Mini correlations: Estime + London, Pickens + Zay/Henry, Monty/Gibbs/ARSB + Engram, Kyren + one of Boutte/Henry, Metcalf/KW3 + CMC/Deebo
One-offs: Monty or Gibbs, Estime, one of Adams/Wilson, Breece, Kyren, ARSB

Redraft Recommendations

Five Buys (players to trade for)

The Cardinals - Using Mike Clay’s comparison of past vs future schedule, we can see that every position has it easier going forward for the Cardinals. The only touch defense down the stretch is the Vikings, making them one of the clearest bye week buys of the season.
Tyrone Tracy - Like the Cardinals, Tracy will have an easier schedule going forward, and the bye week likely makes his price cheaper than baseline. Even despite the Giants poor overall unit, Tracy has flashed an explosive dual-threat skillset.
Sam Laporta - Laporta has been a frustrating asset this year, as he’s lost volume and efficiency due to multiple injuries and the emergence of Jameson Williams. Still, he’s tied to one of the best offenses in the league and remains one of the best bets for a two touchdown spike week in any given game.
The Bears WRs - It’s a huge cluster of mediocrity between the three Bears receivers, as Caleb Williams hasn’t improved like I expected him too. Still, it’s at least plausible that the offense’s performances improve with the coaching game. If that happens, we know that one or multiple of Moore, Odunze, and Allen will be the beneficiaries. With a lighter schedule going forward, there’s at least some hope for a second-half emergence from Williams and company.
The Vikings defense - They make the lost again this week, after holding the Jaguars to only seven points in a 12-7 win. They still have a phenomenal schedule the rest of the way, with Titans, Bears, Cardinals, Falcons, Bears, Seahawks, and Packers. I expect to start them the rest of the season in the leagues where I have them.

Five Sells (players to trade away)

Jameis Winston - The Jameis light burns bright, but never long. The Browns have a touch schedule down the stretch, and Winston is always just one 3+ interception game away from the bench. In 2QB leagues, I’d be looking to move him.
D’Andre Swift - The Bears running backs are projected to have one of the hardest schedules the rest of the way, after having one of the easiest so far. Swift’s been explosive, but also extremely inconsistent. With a new offensive coordinator in place, it’s easy to see Roschon Johnson take a larger role if the new OC values consistency more than Shane Waldron did. Couple that with a more difficult schedule, and Swift is a sell high candidate.
Lions WRs - The Lions receivers face an absolute gauntlet from week 13-17, facing the Bears (1st in defensive EPA/dropback, 2nd in points allowed to WRs), Packers (10th/12th), Bills (12th/8th) , Bears (1st/2nd), and 49ers (11th/13th). Meanwhile, each of those defenses is far more vulnerable to running backs, which will probably reinforce the Lions run-first tendencies.
Mark Andrews - Andrews has proven he still has the juice, with five touchdowns in five weeks, and solid efficiency. Unfortunately, when Isaiah Likely is healthy, the Ravens have limited Andrews snaps. Couple that with one of the toughest TE schedules down the stretch, and I’d be looking to swap Andrews for another TE.
Najee Harris - The Steelers face a tough schedule down the stretch, and will likely be underdogs in most of the games. With Jaylen Warren back, we should expect Najee to lose work in the game scripts.

Week-ahead waiver targets

Defense: Commanders - The Commanders defense hasn’t been good, but they have approached league average in recent weeks. The Cowboys are poised to start Cooper Rush again, and have one of the worst supporting casts in the league.
Kicker: Spencer Schrader - Schrader is rostered in only 3% of leagues, and KC gets a matchup against the Panthers next week. He legitimately may project as the #1 kicker on the week.
Tight End: Zach Ertz - Well, it’s another year of Zach Ertz refusing to go away, offering solid production while looking like a true Dad runner. With a 33% rostered rate and a matchup against a Cowboys team that’s playing for next year, Ertz is poised for another low-end TE1 performance.
Wide Receiver: Michael Pittman - Pittman’s ownership has fallen to 78%, as he hasn’t hit 11 fantasy points since week 6, and Anthony Richardson will reportedly start the rest of the season. You won’t find a bigger Josh Downs bull than me, but Pittman should be rostered in every league. Richardson will lead to volatility, but Pittman’s talented enough to still be a solid bye week fill-in.
Running back: Tyjae Spears - Tony Pollard has been nursing a foot injury the last few weeks and has been very limited in practice. If Pollard was to miss a game, Spears would be the lead back, and has fun pass-catching skills. The matchup against the Texans isn’t easy, but games against Washington and the Jaguars after are exciting.
Quarterback: Geno Smith - Geno is owned in 57% of leagues and gets a potential shootout matchup vs the Cardinals next week. With D.K. Metcalf returning, the Seahawks should be near full strength.

Reducing Uncertainty

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