The Reasons to Draft in Mid-August

Fade most FUD

Why am I drafting right now?

Listen to enough best ball content, and you’ll hear the phrase “this is one of the reasons to draft now.” It, and its cousin, “what can I get now that I can’t get later”, often come to my mind when I have a touch choice between a few players. Answering those questions are critical to the foundation to best ball success.

In May, when best ball drafts first opened, my answer was that question was to draft players likely to rise significantly, allowing me to get some of that sweet sweet closing-line value (CLV).

In June and July, as ADPs become more static, I was drafting to take advantage of under-owned combinations, mostly in time-boxed tournaments, that provide leverage on the field at slightly lower projections.

In early/mid August, the market has blessed us with another reason to draft. FUD.

Key Takeaways

In order of least concerning FUD to most: Situational - Contract - Injury - Hybrid

Reasons to Draft in Early/Mid August

• Breece Hall (situational FUD + falling ADP = strong buy)

• J.K. Dobbins (hybrid FUD is probably just contract FUD + cratering ADP = strong buy)

• Rhamondre Stevenson (situational FUD = buy)

• Kyle Pitts (unwarranted/lingering injury FUD + slight dip in ADP = buy)

• Jonathan Taylor (hybrid FUD is volatile, with only a slight dip in ADP = wait until the 3rd round to buy)

Not reasons to draft, but still potential value

• Josh Jacobs (minimal risk of holdout, but only a slight dip in ADP = mix him in)

• Kenneth Walker (injury risk is real, but ADP gap in individual drafts is wide = mix him in)

  

A hyperreactive market and FUD

This summer, the market has rapidly reacted to any sliver of news, often double-counting the announcement of news that was known for weeks, in pursuit of CLV. Alvin Kamara was a prime example of this, as his ADP hovered at pick ~100, as the market was pricing in a small suspension, of somewhere between 1-6 games. The FUD surrounding the length of his suspension depressed his ADP. Yet, when it was announced he had taken a plea deal, his ADP quickly rose, despite the announcement that he would meet with Commissioner Goodell and that he would still face a suspension. Kamara ultimately got 3 games, which was a slightly better outcome than expected, but the initial FUD clearly depressed his ADP, given the meteroic rise following the announcement.

This volatility and ADP movement creates small windows to buy or sell a player. While drafting Kamara early offered some CLV, it did not, in my opinion, constitute “a reason to draft now”. But, as we sit here in August, FUD is revolving around a few extremely talented players, offering tournament-winning upside.

Situational FUD: Breece Hall + Rhamondre Stevenson

Let’s be clear. The FUD with Hall and Stevenson has nothing to do with their talent. While they have different styles, each is a highly talented RB who has shown flashes of Legendary Upside, with both elite rushing metrics and a path to ceiling outcomes via receiving. Per the Rotoviz Advanced Stat Explorer, Breece finished 2nd in YPC, 2nd in yards before contact, and 5th in broken tackle%. Rhamondre finished 10th in YPC, 4th in yards after contact, and 3rd in missed tackle%. Similarly, Breece flashed elite receiving efficiency, finishing 3rd in YPPR among RBs with at least 30 targets, while Rhamondre demonstrated elite volume, earning the 5th most targets per game.

So why are they falling?

In short, because of rumors that their teams may sign a likely washed veteran that is of minimal threat to them. This is situational FUD, and it is the least concerning type of FUD to me. On the contrary, I view it as a strong indication to buy, as it is probably more related to concerns that the teams are unsatisfied with their RB depth, vice anything related to Hall or Stevenson. While Hall is recovering from an ACL tear, his 2/3 turn ADP from earlier this summer already priced that in. Additionally, Hall, the team, and a cohort of twitter doctors have maintained that he will play week one, and that he will be roughly full-go by week five (if not before). Rhamondre has no health concerns, and Bill Belichick is apparently already limiting his workload in preparation for a bellcow season.

So, thanks to this situational FUD, we can now regularly draft Stevenson in the early/mid 3rd round, and Hall in the late 3rd or even early 4th, despite nothing fundamentally changing with the player or their situations. After elevated ADPs for the entire summer, they are both key reasons to draft now, offering a potential Legendary Upside season at a shockingly low price tags.

Recommendation: Both Breece and Rhamondre are a reason to draft now, and if their prices hold, each will finish as one of my most-drafted RBs in Best Ball Mania.

Contract FUD: Josh Jacobs

Similarly to Hall and Stevenson, the FUD on Jacobs has nothing to do with his talent. However, the risk of a contract-related holdout or slow start is plausible, and I view it as a bit more concerning than the risks created by the situational FUD around Breece and Rhamondre. Additionally, his ADP hasn’t cratered, and Jacobs doesn’t quite have the Legendary Upside of Rhamondre or Breece, due to his more limited receiving profile (1.2 YPPR and 3.8 targets/game, ranking below Breece and Rhamondre in each category).

That said, quite simply, if Jacobs shows up week 1, then his current ADP is too low. And there is probably minimal risk of a Jacobs holdout, as a small olive branch offering by the team (similar to Saquon’s deal) would likely be enough to get Jacobs on-board.

Recommendation: As I’ve done all summer, I’m continuing to mix Jacobs in at ADP, but I don’t view him as a key reason to draft now.

Injury FUD: Kyle Pitts + Kenneth Walker

Injury FUD is the most concerning of the three, as it is most likely to impact the performance of the player. However, not all injury FUD is the same.

Take Kyle Pitts for example. In June, it was reported Pitts was not yet at full health, and that the Falcons would take it slow with him, including a possibly PUP appearance to start training camp. Pitts avoided the PUP, but his workload was slightly limited the first few practices. However, based on one clip and a bulky brace, drafters started letting Pitts fall to the 7th round. Two days later, Pitts shed the brace and participated fully in practice, reportedly winning contested catches deep down field. Curiously, his ADP has not risen back up.

As Pitts is my most-drafted player, I obviously think he’s a complete smash in the 7th round. As I’ve written, he was a bad miss last year, but almost entirely due to factors out of his control, each of which is likely to at least moderately improve this year. At this ADP, we only need a few spike weeks, which he can easily hit given his deep aDOT, even in a low-volume passing attack. And if the passing volume and/or quality of his targets improves, he could be *THE* player of the 2023 season, similar to Deebo Samuel in 2021 and Stefon Diggs in 2020.

Recommendation: Draft Kyle Pitts.

While Pitts injury was overhyped, Kenneth Walker’s is a bit more uncertain, thanks to the fantasy community’s dear old pal, Pete Carroll. Carroll labeled Zach Charbonnet “out indefinitely, and Walker as “week-to-week”. Miraculously, Charbonnet returned just days later, while Walker still has yet to practice. All of this is to say, I am slightly worried that Walker’s injury is a bit more severe than Carroll let on. However… he’s regularly falling to the late 5th and 6th round, which is the cheapest he’s been all off-season. As someone who faded Walker early, when his ADP was in the 3rd and 4th rounds, now is a great time to buy. Assuming Walker returns to practice soon, his ADP will likely return to the 4/5 turn, where it had settled earlier this summer.

Recommendation: Similar to Jacobs, I’m not smashing the button when Walker is at ADP, but I’ll gladly mix him in and scoop up value when possible.

Hybrid FUD: Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins

Hybrid FUD is the most concerning, as it includes 2+ factors, and requires multiple things to go right. Taylor and Dobbins are unique, in that they both have some lingering injury issues, while also expressing a desire for new contracts. How the market reacts is critical to my stance. Of the two, Taylor’s situation is more concerning, and his ADP has fallen to the 2/3 turn. While getting a talent like Taylor at the 2/3 turn is tantalizing, it’s not a huge discount from his ADP for most of the summer. He still goes significantly ahead of Breece, Jacobs, and Rhamondre, despite both the injury and contract concerns. However, in top-heavy best ball tournaments, we are very likely to lose. Getting Taylor in the 3rd round is a potential result-altering event, so I remain interested. In a 12-person home league, I would pass on him for any of the other RBs in that range. Ultimately, your stance on Taylor ultimately comes down to how much risk and volatility you are comfortable with.

Recommendation: Taylor is a reason to draft now, but volatility is high. Wait until the 3rd round after Hall, Rhamondre, and Jacobs (sometimes) are gone.

While facing similar hybrid FUD as Taylor, J.K. Dobbins ADP is absolutely cratering, but I’m not exactly sure why. After his injury, he returned down the stretch last season and was very productive, despite likely not being fully healthy. It’s plausible he has an injury of some kind, but this seems more like a hold-in situation while they negotiate a contract. Similar to Walker, I was underweight Dobbins early this summer, but given Dobbins is now going in the 7th round, he’s a priority and a key reason to draft now, especially in Best Ball Mania. As soon as his situation resolves, his ADP will likely rapidly rise.

Recommendation: Because of his cratering ADP, Dobbins is a reason to draft now. Strong buy.

In Summary

Overall, when the market prices FUD in, simple math dictates that we should be willing to embrace the risk and draft a talented player below his normal market value. This is clearly the case in top-heavy best ball tournaments, and even in normal 12 person home league, where our odds of winning are still only 10-15%, even with an edge. While every situation requires an individual evaluation, I’d encourage a broad “Fade the FUD” mindset.