The New Frontier
The rise of WRs and elite QBs forces change
The Ship Chasing crew’s recent thought exercise on likely ADP shifts is an important process when drafting Best Ball Mania, since the tournament will be open for months and we know ADP value both in the draft and in closing-line value increases EV. The Ship Chasers took the approach of predicting closing ADPs, and then averaging those predictions together (below).
Initially, this article focused on a similar process, assessing the floor and ceiling ADPs for the players in the first three rounds. But while writing, I found it more interesting and impactful to consider the broader landscape, as well as plausible ADP trends. So, I’ve moved the player-specific analysis to the bottom. I still think it’s useful, but opinions will vary, and micro player takes aren’t our (or at least my) primary edge.
As for the plausible ADP trends and macro landscape, I think the key questions are what happens to the 2/3 turn RBs, the elite QBs, and how this new/evolving early WR landscape affects roster construction.
Key Takeaways
Double-Anchor RB (2 in first 3 rounds) feels risky now, but it’s likely our best opportunity to draft those teams, as the 2/3 turn RBs are likely to rise. Pair these builds with only one of an elite QB or TE instead of both to limit opportunity cost and ensure you have enough WR firepower. However, if their ADPs don’t rise…
…then Hero/Zero RB becomes more appealing, especially as we get closer to week 1. Currently, RB dries up about round 14, as we don’t know the backup RBs for multiple teams. As we learn who has those roles, Double-Anchor RB becomes less valuable, as we have more late-round RB options with less risk of dead roster spots.
The elite QBs ADPs probably drop a bit… but not much. Assuming they don’t, and you are also afraid to hard fade them like I am, then Zero/Hero RB is probably the best roster construction to use, as we can limit the opportunity cost of making a QB detour early.
Market efficiency is pushing us to draft more WRs early. Skiing into that avalanche with Hyperfragile and Double-Anchor RB builds is more difficult than ever. I’ll likely have a greater percentage of Hero and Zero RB builds this year (I’m not sure if that’s true for the market as a whole, as early and mid round RB “value” looks appealing). I’m far from the only person with this view, but historically Zero/Hero RB builds have remained underutilized.
Plausible ADP trends and how to play them:
Do the 2/3 turn RBs rise? The consensus is that these players are undervalued, at least relative to the price of these players in past years, and generally RBs rise later in the offseason as more casuals/high-T folks start drafting.
How to play it: While the 2/3 turn RBs are relatively cheaper, so is almost every running back at any point in the draft. In past seasons, we could draft inefficiently to start (RB-RB), and could still build a team filled with a strong group of wide receivers, an elite quarterback, and an elite tight end. This year, that is much more difficult. That said, if they do rise, then the time to draft double anchor RB teams is now, as we won’t be able to do so later. However…
Does the positional scarcity of wide receivers hold the 2/3 turn RBs down? In my view, the market is more efficient this year than in the past, and the primary aspect of that is higher WR ADPs. A common theme for my early drafts has been an uneasy feeling when I draft two RBs in the first three rounds, as this usually locks me out of one of: required wide receiver firepower, an elite quarterback, or an elite tight end (though the ADPs of Kittle, Pitts, Goedert, and Waller make it a bit more palatable).
While I think it’s most likely the 2/3 turn RBs rise, it’s at least plausible that the sickos refuse to relent, hammering wide receivers early and often and limiting the viability of multiple early-round detours. In this scenario, we continue to get those RBs at the 2/3 turn, or even in the mid-3rd, making Hero/Zero RB starts particularly appealing as more late-round RB targets present themselves.
How to play it: For now, I’ll continue to take a few shots at the double-anchor RB builds, but likely at the cost of either an elite QB or TE. Ideally, I would have an elite at each of those positions, allowing me to draft only two total at each. However, in these double-anchor RB builds, I’m more likely to end with a 2-5-8-3 or 3-5-8-2 build, to ensure my wide receiver group is strong.
Do the elite QBs stay in the 2nd round? We’ve seen a gradual decline in the ADP of almost all QBs since the release of Best Ball Mania, to include the non-Lamar elite guys.
However, with Chiefs-Bengals as the preeminent week 17 game stack and the ADPs of those players, Mahomes in particular seems unlikely to fall. The Kelce drafter will occasionally take him in the middle-second, and Chase-Higgins drafters will at least be tempted at the 2/3 turn. So, pick 24 is about as low as his average can go. Hurts and Allen could fall a bit more, given the ADP of their primary stacking partners, but a gap between Mahomes and those two seems unlikely to be more than a few picks at most. Furthermore, historically QB ADPs have risen as more casuals entered the market.
It’s likely that last year was the peak of the gap and not the start of a new trend, especially when factoring in the dual-threat nature of QB7-13 of Herbert, Lawrence, Watson, Richardson, Dak, Tua (minimal rushing but massive weekly ceiling) and Daniel Jones. While Herbert has stayed at about pick 50, each of the others remain in at a similar ADP range as a year ago, and many have fallen by about a round in the two weeks that Best Ball Mania has been open.
All that being said, I am certainly not going to hard fade the elite QBs, given their mix of season-long and weekly upside, so I’ll need to find creative ways draft them. When thinking through this process, a certain roster construction comes to mind.
If I want the benefit of an elite QB (and an elite TE, albeit at a more reasonable price tag), but I can’t afford to draft inefficiently and wait on WRs like in years past, then limiting early running back selections is the logical conclusion, as it is the position we can replace most easily later in the draft (best ball tenet #1). The team below serves as an example.
By limiting our early RB selection to only one, I can pair an elite QB with significant WR firepower, while still getting an elite TE (Waller is a fringe elite IMO, and a Keenan/Waller for Kittle/WR 2v2 would be more apt, but you get the point).
Essentially, this structure allows us to avoid falling behind at WR (most important), still take a shot at a legendary RB at the perceived value tier of 2/3 turn RBs, while still having weekly upside at QB and TE that can separate from the field. As Hero RB has been the silver bullet best ball strategy for nearly a decade, I’m not exactly reinventing the wheel here. But, with the more efficient market, I think it’s more important and stronger than ever.
Final Thoughts
As I said, my view is the market is more efficient than in past years. Previously, we were more able to draft inefficiently because the market wouldn’t punish us for doing so. Now, an inefficient start (multiple RBs or onesie position selections) is more likely to cripple our team at the most important position (WR). So, if the market is forcing us to choose between fading the elite quarterbacks/tight ends, trying to hit the rare wide receiver breakouts later in the draft (with a relatively weak rookie WR class) or hammering an outsized portion of Zero/Hero RB drafts, I think the latter offers us our best bet for success.
ADP Floors and Ceiling of Round 1-3 Players
Justin Jefferson: 1 to 3
Ceiling - Kings stay kings
Floor - CMC and Chase pass him, as the week 17 correlation bros and RB drafters unite in an uneasy alliance
Ja’marr Chase: 1 to 5
Ceiling - Week 17 correlation bros win again
Floor - Heavy RB drafters bump CMC ahead, while Tyreek and Kupp’s 2022 splits with Tua and Stafford create a movement
CMC: 1 to 5
Ceiling - We aren’t taking the best RB at #1 overall?
Floor - The sickos increasingly worry about wide receiver scarcity and prefer to take one of the undervalued RBs at the 2/3 turn
Tyreek: 1 to 7
Ceiling - Was arguably the best fantasy wide receiver with Tua, and Ravens-Dolphins week 17 is a fun bet
Floor - Bijan hype and Kelce-Mahomes stackers drive them ahead in a classic RB+TE ADP increase scenario
Kupp: 2 to 7
Ceiling - Was dominant with Stafford, so why shouldn’t he go higher?
Floor - Same as Tyreek
Bijan: 4 to 12
Ceiling - Everybody loves rookie RBs, and he’s in a dream landing spot
Floor - Positional scarcity at wide receiver and concerns over projected workload make him a late-first rounder
Kelce: 3 to 9
Ceiling - Elite TE bros and week 17 correlation bros unite
Floor - Age/injury concern questions led to a drop in ADP
Diggs: 7 to 11
Ceiling - Allen stackers bring him up just a bit…
Floor - Perennially underrated (somehow) and not perceived as sexy as other receivers
AJB: 5 to 12
Ceiling - Hurts goes in the late second and what if the Eagles pass more?
Floor - RB thirst drives him down
Davante: 7 to 18
Ceiling - Arguably the best wide receiver in football
Floor - He’s 30 and has Jimmy G at QB, why would I take him over Ceedee and Garrett?
JT: 9 to 24
Ceiling - We’re letting last years overall #1 pick, with a super talented rookie QB, fall to the late-first?
Floor - He doesn’t catch many passes, has an inaccurate rookie QB at the helm, and that QB will steal rushing and goal-line work. What makes him different than Derrick Henry?
CeeDee: 6 to 12
Ceiling - He’s an ascending, elite WR tied to a very good QB and offense
Floor - He’s not quite in the Diggs, AJB, Adams tier yet
Saquon: 11 to 21
Ceiling - All-around talent who is the focal point of his offense
Floor - Giants offense will likely regress, what makes him that much different from the 2/3 turn RBs?
Ekeler: 11 to 24
Ceiling - He’s basically in the same situation as last year, again with minimal competition at RB
Floor - Leonard Fournette will steal some early down and goal-line work, capping Ekeler’s upside
Garrett Wilson: 11 to 19
Ceiling - Elite WR1 tied to one of the best passers in the league, who’s relatively easy to stack
Floor - RB thirst drives him down a few spots, as he isn’t in the elite WR tier just yet
ARSB: 13 to 23
Ceiling - Sickos refuse to relent, hammering WRs early and often
Floor - He’s talented, but he isn’t a true WR1. Does he get enough volume with Gibbs and Jameson in town to warrant a top 18 pick?
Pollard: 12 to 25
Ceiling - Elite RB1 primed for a massive workload on a good offense
Floor - Sickos hammer wide receivers, and Zeke probably takes some goal-line work
Chubb: 13 to 25
Ceiling - He’s paid off this ADP before, and what if Watson returns to form?
Floor - Elite rusher, but likely gets minimal passing work. What makes him different than Henry?
Jacobs: 17 to 30
Ceiling - All-around workload with a checkdown charlie at QB. Clear value in late-second.
Floor - Positional scarcity of wide receivers and elite QBs rules the day. Are we sure that Jacobs can match last year with Jimmy at QB?
Mahomes: 19 to 24
Ceiling - Casuals want to stack Kelce-Mahomes as much as possible
Floor - Week 17 correlation bros refuse to let him fall past the Chase-Higgins ADP alignment
Hurts: 19 to 26
Ceiling - Hurts-Devonta after a round 1 wide receiver pick becomes the ideal zero RB start
Floor - Devonta falls as RB rise, reducing the stacking potential for Hurts at the 2/3 turn
Allen: 19 to 27
Ceiling - Drafters want to stack Allen-Diggs and figure it out from there
Floor - Are we sure we want to bet on Allen and Diggs in a potential weather game vs Belichick in week 17?
Waddle: 17 to 30
Ceiling - Tyreek-Waddle starts with Tua later become the easiest pathway to matching elite QB weekly upside without drafting an elite QB
Floor - The 2/3 turn RBs all rise, and are we sure we should be taking the Dolphins WR2 in the second round?
Breece: 13 to 35
Ceiling - Schefter reports that Breece is cleared and will be full-go for late preseason and week 1.
Floor - Schefter reports Breece is likely to start the season in a split
Devonta: 22 to 31
Ceiling - WR scarcity keeps him in the late-round two discussion
Floor - 2/3 turn RBs rise, and are we sure we want the Eagles WR2 in the second round?
Rhamondre: 17 to 31
Ceiling - Locked in every down role coupled with a rise in RBs ADP
Floor - Are we sure that Belichick is going to give him an every down role?
Higgins: 23 to 28
Ceiling - Chase-Higgins start and figure it out from there
Floor - Why can’t I just take Higgins in round 3 instead of two?
Olave: 16 to 29
Ceiling - Was arguably better than Wilson last year, and got a QB upgrade
Floor - 2/3 turn RBs rise, and Olave isn’t a true alpha
Andrews: 25 to 31
Ceiling - The Ravens will throw more this year, and Andrews is still elite. Why isn’t he a second round pick?
Floor - Just punt TE bro
Lamar: 25 to 34
Ceiling - He has the same weekly ceiling as the elites and his supporting cast is much improved
Floor - Injury-prone and he isn’t as good as a passer as the true elites
Henry: 17 to 32
Ceiling - The high-T RB drafters and weekly 17 correlation truthers unite in the unlikeliest alliance of our lives
Floor - Old RB who doesn’t catch passes on a bad offense
Gibbs: 31 to 36+
Ceiling - Rotoviz and sickos go brr
Floor - He’s a 199 pound RB, who isn’t going to get goal-line work, and we’re taking him where?
Etienne: 32 to 36+
Ceiling - Jaguars quietly poised to have one of the NFL’s best offenses
Floor - Jags didn’t trust him with an every-down workload
Metcalf: 28 to 35
Ceiling - Sickos continue to hammer WRs, and Geno is a fun stacking partner
Floor - Likely loses some targets with JSN in town
Deebo: 34 to 36+
Ceiling - Brock Purdy likely to be ready for week one
Floor - Splits with CMC were bad, are we sure he’s better than Ridley and Cooper?
Fields: 36 to 36+
Ceiling - Elite QBs refuse to fall
Floor - Rushing production is unsustainable and he has a long ways to go as a passer