My Core Bets

Through 500 drafts

While I remain a diversification drafter, my strategy is to take semi-strong stands (2x-3x vs average) on the players and teams that I like the most, and pair them with a diversified portfolio of ADP values. In an ideal world, this will maximize the outcomes when I’m right about the players and teams I’m most confident in. Over the last two years, My Core Bets have included Josh Downs and the Colts, George Kittle, Drake Maye, and the Cowboys passing attack, which have been a big part of the success I’ve had the last two seasons (with a 5th place Mastiff finish in 2024 and a 30% ROI in 2025).

For 2026, I’ve included my core bets through about 500 drafts so far, and the core bets I intend to make over my final 250 drafts or so. For those that simply want the Core Bets and the key reasons why, there’s a short summary at the bottom of the article.

For those that want the longer view, let’s start with the team bets, which includes the Chargers, who I wrote up as my first core bet of 2026 in early May.

My Core Bets through 500 drafts

Team Bets

The Chargers

Exposure through 500 drafts: Ladd McConkey 14%, Tre Harris 12%, Keaton Mitchell 11%, Justin Herbert 10%, Oronde Gadsden 8%, Omarion Hampton 6%, Kimani Vidal 2%, Quentin Johnston 1%
Target exposures: Ladd 16%, Harris 16%, Mitchell 10%, Herbert 12%, Gadsden 8%, Hampton 8%, Vidal 2%, Johnston 2%

As I wrote in May, the Chargers are primed to be much better in 2026, due to the return of their two stud offensive tackles, Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, the arrival of genius-level offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, and the addition of ancillary offensive pieces like Keaton Mitchell, Alec Ingold, and Charlie Kolar that should enable the Chargers to be more diverse and efficient on offense. While those additions have led to concerns from some analysts about the ADP cost of their two most expensive weapons, Omarion Hampton and Ladd McConkey, I’m not really buying it.

Hampton was a round one draft pick, that flashed full three-down workhorse potential last season, even amidst a season where he suffered injuries and the offensive line was in shambles. While I’m underweight now, that was mostly because I thought the market would price him more cheaply. That hasn’t happened, and he will be one of my round two RB targets the rest of the way. As for McConkey, it’s easy to point to last years’ production and simply conclude he is not a true #1, given Keenan Allen largely outperformed him. However, McConkey had sterling results in Reception Perception again, and his skillset is best suited to winning when the offense is functioning as designed.¹ With the loss of Alt and Slater, the Chargers were forced into a dink-and-dunk offense that probably artificially boosted Allen’s production and harmed McConkey.

So, to me, each of those two is probably locked in to a strong role, and if the offense is as good as I expect, will be extremely productive.

If someone from this offense fails, I’m betting it will be Quentin Johnston, or one of the other depth pieces. However, Johnston remains easily the most aggressively priced, given that he is a limited player that might simply be worse than second-year breakout candidate, Tre Harris, as a receiver. Instead of betting against Ladd or Hampton, I’m much more willing to bet against Johnston, or assume that one of or both of Kimani Vidal and Keaton Mitchell have less of a role than expected.

As for the macro factors, pace remains a concern, as both Harbaugh and McDaniel like to play slowly, and will probably do some again (McDaniel’s offense relies on lots of motion, which boosts efficiency, so it’s not all bad). However, each has shown a willingness to pass at a high rate when they have the team to do so. With Justin Herbert back under center behind a potentially top-5 offensive line, throwing to deep and talented supporting cast, I expect the Chargers to throw at a positive pass rate over expectation.