Metrics and Matchups: Week 9

Welcome to Metrics and Matchups, where I’ll detail each of the key metrics for each team, and analyze each matchup for this week. For readers of The Sketch last year, you’ll recognize the chart below, which is color coded to show each team’s strength and weakness. Below that, I’ll analyze each matchup for the week, provide this week’s fast and slow paced games, provide DL and OL mismatches, and pick each game using confidence levels. Let’s get to it.

My other articles for week 9:

• Waiver Targets for Week 9

Metrics

Data from Fantasy Points, ESPN, Rotoviz, and RBSDM

Matchups

Each week, I break matchups down into Slight Favorites, Clear Favorites, and Toss-up games, as those teams (that also have high O/Us) are who we want to target most.²

Slight Favorites (-3.5 to -6.5)

Falcons at Patriots

• Market’s prediction: Patriots -5

• My prediction: Patriots win by 3

• OL advantage: Falcons (pass blocking)

• DL advantage: Patriots (run stop), Falcons (pass rush)

• Patriots gameplan: Moderate lean to the pass

• Falcons gameplan: Slight lean to the pass

Despite being favored by 5 points, the Patriots have a tough matchup, as the Falcons are solid vs the pass and have a strong front four. Drake Maye has played like an MVP candidate, but even in another strong performance vs the Browns last week, he still took lots of sacks. If the Falcons can limit the explosive passing plays and generate sacks, this could be one of Maye’s worst performances of the year. Adding to the Pats’ difficulty, they’ll be without Rhamondre Stevenson, leaving TreVeyon Henderson and Terrell Jennings as their lead rushers. Neither has flashed this year, and while the Falcons have a weak run defense, the Patriots are even worse rushing. For better or worse, the Patriots’ fate will continue to reside in the hands of Drake Maye.

As for the Falcons, Michael Penix and Drake London return, which should be a big boost to the offense. The New England defense is also very strong against the run, which should push the Falcons to a slight passing lean this week. Kyle Pitts and Darnell Mooney are in play as low-end starters, and Bijan Robinson is an elite RB1 as usual due to his elite usage. Tyler Allgeier is a worse start than usual given the Pats’ strong rush defense.

Clear Favorites (-7 or more)

Chargers at Titans

• Market’s prediction: Chargers -9.5

• My prediction: Chargers win by 10

• OL advantage: None

• DL advantage: None

• Chargers gameplan: Passing heavy

• Titans gameplan: Run heavy (for as long as they can)

With star tackle Joe Alt back, the Chargers again looked like one of the best offenses in football, dropping 37 points on a Brian Flores’ defense. They get a much easier matchup here, facing a Titans defense that is horrendous vs the pass and bad vs the run. Put simply, it’s a play all the Chargers week, and hope that the volume and touchdown variance is on your side. Given the Titans high cover-4 rate, I’ll give a slight boost to the non-Quentin Johnston weapons.

For the Titans, I expect them to attack via the ground for as long as they can, given the Chargers strong pass defense. Unfortunately, there’s not much fantasy viability here, as Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears remain in a split backfield. Like most weeks, no Titans player is more than a bye-week fill-in option.

Vikings at Lions

• Market’s prediction: Lions -9

• My prediction: Lions win by 4

• OL advantage: Vikings run blocking

• DL advantage: None

• Lions gameplan: Moderate lean to the run

• Vikings gameplan: Moderate lean to the run

The Lions are one of the teams best equipped to take advantage of a Brian Flores defense due to their litany of weapons and high playaction rate, especially at home, where Jared Goff thrives. However, I expect them to enter with a run-based gameplan, as the Vikings have struggled all year, vs significantly worse rushers than Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Yet, there are paths to nuclear ceilings for the passing game if the Vikings can push them.

For the Vikings offense, I expect them to enter with a run-based gameplan, given their run blocking advantage, the return of Aaron Jones, and due to J.J. McCarthy’s first game back from injury. However the Lions defense is strong, and their likely to be trailing, so if they can’t keep it close, expect Minnesota to shift to the air, funneling targets to Justin Jefferson via the Lions man-heavy defense.

Panthers at Packers

• Market’s prediction: Packers -13

• My prediction: Packers win by 10

• OL advantage: Packers pass blocking

• DL advantage: Packers pass rush

• Packers gameplan: Balanced

• Panthers gameplan: Run heavy

The Packers are poised to control another game with their balanced attack and strong defense. Jordan Love continues to play well, and the return of Christian Watson bolstered an already deep pass-catching group, led by YAC king Tucker Kraft. The question, as usual, will be total volume, given the large spread and Josh Jacobs strong performances. However, the Panthers do have a strong rushing success rate defense. If they can shut Jacobs down, we could see another ceiling performance from Love and company.

On the Panthers side, they will likely attempt to establish Rico Dowdle as early and as often as they can. The Packers are a neutral run defense overall, despite a strong defensive line, so it’s likely that Dowdle will find some success. I like the Panthers chances of keeping the game moderately close, in a game where they lose slowly. Despite the matchup and game script, Tetairoa McMillan remains in play as a bet-on-volume WR2.

Saints at Rams

• Market’s prediction: Rams -14

• My prediction: Rams win by 14

• OL advantage: Rams pass blocking

• DL advantage: Rams pass rush and run stop

• Rams gameplan: Moderate lean to the pass

• Saints gameplan: Run heavy for as long as they can

The Rams are in an explosion spot here, with the matchup advantage at every level on both sides of the ball, facing a rookie quarterback making his first start. The Rams shave slightly underperformed their metrics so far, which is keeping them out of the Super Bowl discussion. I expect that to flip this week, and am starting each of Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, and Kyren Williams with confidence.

For the Saints, it’s tough to envision paths to victory here. I expect they will attempt to rely on the run early, but will probably be forced to pass. Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Alvin Kamara, and Juwan Johnson remain starting options due to their strong volume and the fast pace each team plays with, but the touchdown expectation is quite low.

Toss-up Games (-3 to +3)

Bears at Bengals

• Market’s prediction: Bears -2.5

• My prediction:

• OL advantage: Bears pass blocking and run blocking

• DL advantage: None

• Bears gameplan: Slight lean to the run

• Bengals gameplan: Moderate lean to the pass

With D’Andre Swift out, Kyle Monangai is in a potential explosion spot vs one of the worst defenses in the league, as are the passing options. Caleb Williams continue to perform poorly in most metrics, but facing a Bengals defense that can’t rush the passer or cover receivers, it’ll be difficult for even Caleb to fail. Rome Odunze continues to perform as a high-end WR2, while D.J. Moore is a solid WR3 option this week.

For the Bengals, the injury to Joe Flacco could be an issue this week, especially on deep throws, potentially reducing Tee Higgins’ range of outcomes. I expect a slightly reduced lean to the pass this week, making each of Chase Brown and Samaje Perine viable starts. Ja’marr Chase is a locked-in WR1 as usual.

Colts at Steelers

• Market’s prediction: Colts -3

• My prediction: Colts win by 3

• OL advantage: Colts run blocking, Steelers run blocking

• DL advantage: Steelers pass rush

• Colts gameplan: Slight lean to the run

• Steelers gameplan: Moderate lean to the run

With a run blocking advantage and facing a strong Steelers pass rush, I expect the Colts to operate as usual, attempting to establish engine of the offense Jonathan Taylor early and often, before allowing Daniel Jones and company to play efficiently off of that. However, the Steelers don’t have a bad run defense, and use one-high safety alignments and cover-1 at a high rate. Schematically, that could pose issues for the Colts run game and RPO/playaction attack, which would mean more straight Daniel Jones dropbacks vs T.J. Watt and crew. Given the Steelers are at home, and their schematic advantages, it’s easy to see why the spread is only Colts -3.

Ultimately, they game will probably be decided by the Steelers offense, as the defense schematic advantages can’t hold the Colts elite offense off indefinitely in the modern NFL. Mike Tomlin probably knows that, and I expect him to play keep-away from the Colts as much as possible, relying on the run game and short passing to move the ball methodically and efficiently. Jaylen Warren and D.K. Metcalf are strong starts, though this has the makings of an intense real-life game, with less fantasy excitement than is ideal.

49ers at Giants

• Market’s prediction: 49ers -2.5

• My prediction: 49ers win by 6

• OL advantage: Giants pass blocking

• DL advantage: None

• 49ers gameplan: Slight lean to the run

• Giants gameplan: Slight lean to the pass

Despite mediocre rushing success on the season, I expect Kyle Shanahan to use a run-first attack this week, as the Giants are arguably the worst rushing defense in the league. Additionally, the 49ers are probably a bit stronger in the running game than the metrics would indicate, given George Kittle’s recent return. However, the Giants are also mediocre vs the pass, with the 49ers passing weapons at some of their best health all year. Kittle and Christian McCaffrey are each elite options at their positions, while Jajuan Jennings is a fringe WR2/3 in this matchup.

For the Giants, they are now without their top two skill players on the year, leaving them with a crew best suited to be secondary/tertiary options. However, Jaxson Dart continues to play well, and his rushing keeps his floor high each week. Tyrone Tracy should see the lead running back usage and is a bet-on-volume RB2. Wan’dale Robinson, Theo Johnson, and Darius Slayton all remain viable starting options, though the path to strong production is quite narrow.

Broncos at Texans

• Market’s prediction: Texans -2.5

• My prediction: Broncos win by 3

• OL advantage: None

• DL advantage: Broncos run stop and pass rush

• Texans gameplan: Balanced

• Broncos gameplan: Balanced

In a battle of arguably the two best passing defenses in the league, I expect each team to shift slightly to the run this week. The Broncos should have the edge in that regard, given their strong offensive line and solid running back play. J.K. Dobbins is the only Broncos player I’m starting confidently, though Courtland Sutton and Bo Nix are viable options, even in a tough matchup.

For the Texans, their best bet is relying on the strength and depth at receiver, enabling C.J. Stroud to target whichever of his options is 1v1 on each snap. However, that’s a difficult path to sustained success vs this Broncos defense, even with Patrick Surtain out. Still, I expect Stroud to find some big plays, given the return of stud #1 option Nico Collins, and the continued emergence of Jaylin Noel (and to a lesser extent) Jayden Higgins. I expect a close, defensive-oriented game, that likely comes down to the last possession or two.

Jaguars at Raiders

• Market’s prediction: Jaguars -2.5

• My prediction: Jaguars win by 3

• OL advantage: Jaguars pass blocking

• DL advantage: None

• Jaguars gameplan: Passing heavy

• Raiders gameplan: Balanced.

The loss of Travis Hunter over the bye week was devastating, as he appeared primed for a true breakout second half. However, the Jags passing game still enters a potential explosion spot, given he Raiders weak passing defense. Brian Thomas Jr should be at his healthiest all year, and Trevor Lawrence should have ample time to find him. The two have struggled to be on the same page this year, but if there is ever a week to do it, it’s probably this one. For the running game, the Raiders defense is tough, but Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten have played well, and Etienne’s usage keeps him in the low-end RB2 discussion.

For the Raiders, Brock Bowers returns this week, which is incredible news, given the passing game has looked entirely broken without him. If Bowers is close to full health, the Jaguars mediocre passing defense presents a great matchup for Bowers and Jakobi Meyers. Ashton Jeanty faces a tough task on the ground, and he’ll likely need strong receiving usage to remain in the RB1/2 discussion.

Overall, I like each teams’ chances of offensive success this week, particularly through the air, creating strong buy low opportunities for Bowers and BTJ.

Chiefs at Bills