Metrics and Matchups Week 8

Welcome to Metrics and Matchups, where I’ll detail each of the key metrics for each team, and analyze each matchup for this week. For readers of The Sketch last year, you’ll recognize the chart below, which is color coded to show each team’s strength and weakness. Below that, I’ll analyze each matchup for the week, provide this week’s fast and slow paced games, provide DL and OL mismatches, and pick each game using confidence levels. Let’s get to it.

My other articles for week 8:

• Waiver Targets for Week 8

Metrics

Data from Fantasy Points, ESPN, Rotoviz, and RBSDM

Matchups

Each week, I break matchups down into Slight Favorites, Clear Favorites, and Toss-up games, as those teams (that also have high O/Us) are who we want to target most.²

Slight Favorites (-3.5 to -6.5)

Jets at Bengals

• Market’s prediction: Bengals -6.5

• My prediction: Bengals win by 4

• OL advantage: Jets (run blocking)

• DL advantage: Jets (run stop)

• Bengals gameplan: Passing heavy

• Jets gameplan: Run heavy

The Jets defense has improved in recent weeks, and is actually above average in success rate vs the run and the pass. However, they’re still vulnerable to big plays, which is obviously a concern when facing Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. I expect the Bengals to again attack primarily through the air, leaning on the simplicity of Joe Flacco delivering catchable and in-rhythm targets to their elite receivers. Chase Brown has been losing some work to Samaje Perine lately, but with 25.5 point total, Brown is a decent RB2 as a bet on a touchdown.

As for the Jets offense, we don’t know who is playing quarterback, but we know Garrett Wilson is out, so it’ll be another rushing heavy attack for as long as it’s viable. Breece Hall has a knee injury, but is likely to play. Hall has a slight run blocking edge in this one, and even as road underdogs with a low total, he’s a solid RB2 play this week. I’m mostly avoiding the Jets passing game, but Josh Reynolds and Mason Taylor are at least viable volume-based fill-in options.

Cowboys at Broncos

• Market’s prediction: Broncos -3.5

• My prediction: Broncos win by 3

• OL advantage: Broncos (pass blocking)

• DL advantage: None

• Broncos gameplan: Slight lean to the pass

• Cowboys gameplan: Balanced

This should be a fun game to watch, as Dak Prescott and the Cowboys elite offense face a road matchup vs one of the best defenses in football. The Broncos are particularly good against the pass, and while the Cowboys prefer throwing the ball, they will lean on Javonte Williams and a strong offensive line when needed. I expect an initially run-focused attack from Dallas, as they’ll want to slow down the Broncos pass rush and muddy their passing game keys. And Javonte should find some success there, potentially opening the door to an efficient Cowboys performance, even if passing volume is lower than usual. However, if the Cowboys can’t run effectively, it’ll be the Dak show, as he’ll attempt to find the 1v1 matchup for his talented trio of CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Jake Ferguson. I expect that will often by downfield routes vs man coverage for Pickens, and the Cowboys fate could rest on whether or not Pickens can win on those.

As for the Broncos offense, they have a strong pass blocking advantage, and face a Dallas defense that is weak all-around. I expect they will have a slight to moderate lean to the pass, even despite Bo Nix struggling to start the year. He should find some success here, though the Cowboys high use of zone coverage weakens some of the Broncos appeal, as they are at their best schematically vs man coverage. On the ground, the Cowboys have a solid run stopping defensive line, but have horrendous linebacker play. If J.K. Dobbins or R.J. Harvey can get through the first level, he should generate some explosive rushes.

Bucs at Saints

• Market’s prediction: Bucs -3.5

• My prediction: Bucs win by 3

• OL advantage: Bucs (pass blocking)

• DL advantage: Bucs (pass rush)

• Bucs gameplan: Slight lean to the pass

• Saints gameplan: Balanced

The Bucs will be without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin again, potentially pushing them towards a more balanced approach. However, the Saints are more vulnerable to the pass than the run (though the Bears shellacked them on the ground last week), which should keep Baker Mayfield and company busy. The Bucs have quietly built an effective weak-link group of receivers with complementary skillsets, with Emeka Egbuka, Tez Johnson, Sterling Shepard, and Cade Otton all playing useful roles. Rachaad White is also an effective receiver, and is again a strong RB2 in this matchup.

As for the Saints, their commitment to running the ball will be tested, vs an elite Bucs rush defense. I expect a more balanced approach this week, with Kellen Moore specifically attack via short passing concepts that stress the Bucs weak passing success rate defense. That will probably require Spencer Rattler to effectively diagnose Todd Bowles’ blitz packages, which will be one of the key factors to the game. I like Chris Olave’s chances of a strong volume game, and the ancillary passing pieces are also interesting, as a bet on elevated passing volume. With Kendre Miller out for the season, Alvin Kamara could see increased short-term usage, and Devin Neal is worth a speculative add.

Clear Favorites (-7 or more)

Bears at Ravens

• Market’s prediction: Ravens -7

• My prediction: Ravens win by 6

• OL advantage: Ravens (pass blocking)

• DL advantage: None

• Ravens gameplan: Slight lean to the pass

• Bears gameplan: Balanced

Lamar Jackson returns for the Ravens, and that’s essentially the whole story. With Jackson, the Ravens have one of the best offenses in the NFL, and have to go on a tear to save their season. Facing a mediocre Bears defense, I expect Lamar to pick up right where he left off, as one of the best QBs in football. Zay Flowers should again serve as his top weapon, and is back in the WR2 discussion. The Bears have struggled with run defense consistency, but are solid at preventing explosive rushes, leading to a roughly neutral matchup for Derrick Henry.

For the Bears offense, they’ve performed as a roughly average unit, even with one of the best offensive lines in football. The Ravens defense has been one of the worst in football, but is healthier than they’ve been, weakening the predictiveness of the metrics. I expect Ben Johnson to test the Ravens on the ground early, and stick with the run if they have success. If they don’t, he won’t be scared of shifting to the pass, where the Ravens have been equally as bad thus far. It’s a heavy input volatility game, and for DFS purposes, I’ll probably plan to make the opposite assumption of the market.

Dolphins at Falcons

• Market’s prediction: Falcons -7.5

• My prediction: Falcons win by 10

• OL advantage: None

• DL advantage: Falcons (pass rush and run stop)

• Falcons gameplan: Moderate lean to the run

• Dolphins gameplan: Slight lean to the run

The Falcons and Bijan Robinson get the worst run defense in football, and already have a -1.1 PROE. Bijan, and Tyler Allegier, should see a heavy workload, and find success. When the Falcons do pass, the Dolphins have been horrible there as well, keeping Michael Penix, Darnell Mooney, and Kyle Pitts in play as streaming options. Drake London’s volume is probably a bit weaker this week, but the strong matchup and the Falcons 26 point total keeps him in the high-end WR2 discussion.

As for the Dolphins, it’ll again be the De’von Achane and Jaylen Waddle show. Despite the matchup against the Falcons tough defense, they should see consolidated volume again, making each the solid starting option they usually are. I’d avoid Tua Tagovailoa this week as a streaming option.

Bills at Panthers

• Market’s prediction: Bills -7

• My prediction: Bills win by 10

• OL advantage: Bills (pass and run blocking), Panthers (run blocking)

• DL advantage: None

• Bills gameplan: Slight lean to the pass

• Panthers gameplan: Run heavy for as long as it’s close

The Panthers defense is slightly above average, but they are facing a potential buzzsaw this week, with the Bills coming off two straight losses and a bye week. That’s a recipe for a Josh Allen explosion, and I’d take the over on almost any Allen fantasy points line this week. The Panthers have one of the best defensive rushing success rates in the league, potentially limiting James Cook’s effectiveness, which only adds to the potential for increased Josh Allen volume. In the passing game, the Bills will be without Josh Palmer, increasing my interest in Keon Coleman as a streaming option. Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid (assuming he plays) are also viable options, as the typical bet on touchdown or spike volume that randomly happens.

For the Panthers offense, it’ll be Andy Dalton at quarterback, which should only increase the Panthers intent to run the football, and they already have one of the lowest PROEs in the league. The Bills also have a poor run defense, setting up Rico Dowdle and/or Chuba Hubbard for another big day. The Panthers path to success will be a methodical and consistent rushing attack that can limit the Bills possessions and keep Allen off the field, and they should fully lean into it this week. Tetairoa McMillan remains a bet-on-talent start, but his floor and ceiling is likely meaningfully lower this week.

Giants at Eagles