Welcome to Metrics and Matchups, where I’ll detail each of the key metrics for each team, and analyze each matchup for this week. For readers of The Sketch last year, you’ll recognize the chart below, which is color coded to show each team’s strength and weakness. Below that, I’ll analyze each matchup for the week, provide this week’s fast and slow paced games, provide DL and OL mismatches, and pick each game using confidence levels. Let’s get to it.
My other articles for week 3:
Metrics
Data courtesy of Fantasy Points, ESPN, Rotoviz, and RBSDM.
Each week, this section will include analysis on each team’s projected points, pace, and matchup for their upcoming game.
Totals
Each week, I break matchups down into Slight Favorites, Clear Favorites, and Toss-up games, as those teams (that also have high O/Us) are who we want to target most.2
Slight Favorites (-3.5 to -6.5)
The Ravens stand out in the slight favorites category, ahead of a game of the week matchup vs the Detroit on Monday Night Football. Despite leading the league in points, the Ravens are 30th in total plays, and are due for positive regression despite a slow neutral pace. That’s good news for Zay Flowers, who has taken a clear alpha role so far, ranking WR2 in target share and WR8 in air yards share, and WR8 in expected points. While Derrick Henry and the Ravens are a unique and powerful rushing threat, they are slightly above average in PROE so far, and the Lions defense is much stronger against the run than the pass, including a league-worst 19% pass rush win rate. I expect Lamar Jackson to have plenty of time to throw this week, and his receivers should have extra time to uncover vs a solid Lions secondary. I’d prefer avoiding any of the Ravens secondary weapons in redraft leagues, with each of Rashod Bateman, Deandre Hopkins, and Mark Andrews are appealing DFS showdown slate options.
On the Lions side, the Ravens have struggled against the run, with below average metrics across the board. The Lions haven’t dominated on the ground, but that’s mostly due to the Packers stout defense in week one. I like Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery’s chances of strong games here. As for the passing game, they exploded vs a terrible Bears unit in week two, leading the Lions to have some of the best passing metrics so far. However, it’s an outdoor road game for Jared Goff and company, vs a strong Ravens secondary. Given that and the Lions below average PROE, I expect Detroit to try to establish the run early and often. Still, Dan Campbell knows he’ll need a big performance from his offense to keep pace with the Ravens, and I expect him to go for it on 4th down in all but the most obvious kicking situations. With a 53 point total, this game obviously has the greatest shootout potential on the week.
The Chiefs and Giants are the other primetime game of the week, and each arrives at 0-2, and in need of a win. The Chiefs are solid six point favorites, with a solid 25.5 point total. They’ve been mediocre on offense thus far, with Patrick Mahomes doing everything in his power to keep them slightly above average in dropback EPA and success rate. Unfortunately for Mahomes, they are below average in nearly every other offensive and defensive metric, and are simply not a very good team right now. Still, with the strong total, the 5th-highest PROE, and an aggressive opponent, they are in a good fantasy spot against an all-around weak Giants defense. Xavier Worthy is likely to return but reportedly has a fully torn labrum, which comes with a high reinjury risk and increased volatility. I’d prefer sitting him this week if you have better options. Travis Kelce, Hollywood Brown, and Isiah Pacheco are all low-end starting options given the matchup, despite their mediocre play so far.
On the Giants side, they face Chiefs defense that has struggled vs two strong opponents so far. Still, I’m not buying the Chiefs defense is below average, with Chris Jones and company still delivering a strong pass rush win rate. Given the Giants aggressive PROE (5th), there should be potential for big plays for both the Giants offense and Chiefs defense. Like JSN and Zay Flowers, Malik Nabers is dominating in a clear alpha role and he’s a WR1 in any matchup, though Steve Spagnuolo is notorious for taking away an offense’ best receiver, as Stefon Diggs felt in many of the Chiefs-Bills matchups. Wan’dale Robinson has had strong usage so far, and if the Chiefs are able to quickly generate pressure, is probably set for a slew of short targets this week. He’s a solid WR3/flex floor play. I’d avoid starting any other Giants.
The Colts are next up in slight favorites, and they look every bit the darkhorse I thought they would be with reliable quarterback play, and they’ll probably end up as the strongest team-level best ball bet of the season. Their week 3 opponent Tennessee has a solid passing defense, but is among the worst defenses at giving up explosive runs. That’s Jonathan Taylor’s music, who is playing nearly every snap and is arguably the RB1 going forward. With ownership condensing around Kenneth Walker and Jordan Mason, Taylor will probably be one of my favorite DFS plays of the week. As for the passing game, the Colts rank 2nd in dropback success rate and 5th in EPA/play. Even against a solid Titans defense, I’m comfortable starting Tyler Warren, Michael Pittman, and even Josh Downs. Downs was back to usual tricks in week two, offering elite per route target metrics, but playing only a limited number of the routes. With Warren banged up, I like both Pittman and Downs to earn more of the RPOs and playaction targets this week, and each is a sneaky DFS play at cheap salaries and low ownership.
For the Titans, I continue to be high on Cam Ward and Elic Ayomanor as appreciating assets, while acknowledging it’ll be a rocky ride. The Colts have a solid pass defense, but are dead last in pass rush win rate, which probably gives Ward far more time than he had against the Broncos and Rams strong pass rushing units. The Colts have also been very poor against the run, increasing Tony Pollard's chances for a strong game. Overall, I like the Titans chances of performing better than expected on offense, and want to bet against the market’s newfound confidence in the Colts. I like the over, and I’ll target this game in large-field DFS contests.
The Falcons have performed similarly to the Colts so far, relying on a balanced and efficient offense and solid passing defense. Michael Penix earned respect from Brian Flores last week, and Bijan Robinson looks like one of the best running backs in the league. Like the Colts, the Falcons prefer relying on their rushing attack, and as 5.5 point favorites against an all-around weak Panthers defense, they should be able to here. Still, the Panthers have been worse against the pass than the rush, and the Falcons passing weapons are the healthiest they’ve been since early August. Drake London has earned 19 targets over the first two weeks, and is a high-floor WR2 option. Darnell Mooney was fully back last week, with a 96% route rate, 19% target share, and 36% air yards share. He’s never going to be an elite target earner, but Mooney’s spike potential makes him a flex play every week, including this one. The Falcons have increased their 12 personnel usage, which has led to a 78% snap rate for Kyle Pitts. His blocking limitations will probably never allow him to fulfill his prophecy as the Prince Who Was Promised, but he’s a solid starting option.
For the Panthers, they’ve been slightly below average on offense so far, and face a strong Falcons passing defense. However, Carolina has one of the better run blocking units in the league, and the Falcons have a mediocre run defense. I like Chuba Hubbard’s chances of an efficient rushing game. Tetairoa McMillan is WR23 in expected points so far, and volume keeps him in the WR2/3 range for this game as well.
I wrote up what’s changed for the Eagles in 2025 here, and it’s a fairly simple story.
Last year, the Eagles faced two-high safeties only 40% of the time, which was the third-lowest rate. This year, the Eagles are facing two-safeties 67% of the time, which is the highest rate in the league.
Additionally, defenses are also simply refusing to play man coverage against them, which AJ Brown and Devonta Smith are better against. In 2025, teams have played zone 79% of the time against the Eagles, which is the 7th-highest rate. In 2024, that was 64%, which ranked 23rd.
Put simply, through two weeks, defenses are using two-high safety shells and zone coverage to force the Eagles to methodically beat them on the ground. The Eagles are accepting that challenge and have been effective, ranking second in EPA/rush and fifth in rushing success rate. But that’s comes at the cost of limited passing production, less explosive plays, and a slow pace, which are obviously significant negatives for fantasy points. But that may change in week three.
While the Rams have been an elite defense, they’re using a two-high safeties look at the lowest rate in the league (29%). In 2024’s playoff matchup, the Rams used 2-high safeties at a 46% rate in a snowy and windy game, so I am expecting them to ramp up their two-high safety rate again here. However, that rate will probably be less than the 67% rate the Eagles have faced so far, offering upside for A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith, and the Eagles passing game here. Still, it remains a volatile situation, and how the Rams choose to play the Eagles will be an interesting litmus test.
As for the Rams offense, they’ve been one of the better units so far, with a concentrated passing attack and strong ground game. The Eagles struggled vs the Cowboys without Jalen Carter, but were decent vs the Chiefs in week two. So far, they don’t look like one of the best defenses in the league, and I like the Rams chances of moving the ball effectively. With the potential for faster pace and passing volume for the Eagles, I’m intrigued by this game for DFS, as a low-owned shootout option.
The Bucs close out the slight favorite section in a game vs the Jets. It’d difficult to find much fantasy goodness here, as the Jets league-low PROE and weak run defense likely limits total play volume. The Bucs have one of the best rushing units in the league so far, and Bucky Irving should be able to generate multiple chunk gains. Still, the Bucs have been a strong PROE team to far, and the Jets are mediocre against the pass, so it’s at least plausible they choose to remain aggressive. However, with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, it’s likely the Jets attempt to establish the run even harder, despite facing a strong Bucs rushing defense. I’m still starting Irving, Mike Evans, Garrett Wilson, and Breece Hall, but I’d prefer avoiding the secondary options for each team.
Clear Favorites (-7 or more)
The Bills were strongest favorite on the week, and earned a solid win over the Dolphins on TNF. They didn’t quite cover the spread due to a missed field goal, but they are still an absolute unit of a team, with a dominant offense and an above average passing defense. Their rushing defense looks poor so far, but that’s mostly due to Baltimore shredding them in week one. They’re probably the AFC favorite right now, and arguably the Super Bowl favorite over the second clear favorite of the week, Green Bay. The only negative for fantasy purposes is that they are almost certainly due for play volume regression, as their 74.5 is easily the highest in the league so far.
The Packers are the current NFC favorite, led by a dominant defense that made the Lions and Commanders look inept. As 7.5 point favorites against a Browns team that throws often and plays fast, the Packers should be the #1 projected defense on the week. Offensively, the Packers are no slouch either, with an explosive passing attack and one of the most consistent rushing attacks in the league. The loss of Jayden Reed and potentially Tucker Kraft are concerns for the passing volume and aggression, and I’d knock Jordan Love down slightly this week. Still, Love has other talented weapons around him, and the Packers 24.5 total is one of the stronger ones of the week. Josh Jacobs isn’t quite seeing the receiving usage he did last year, but he’s locked in to a overall strong workload and is one of the easiest starts to make each week due to game script. For the Browns, it’s difficult to see touchdown upside, but their passing volume keeps all of their primary weapons in play, especially in PPR leagues. I’m probably starting Harold Fannin over T.J. Hockenson in a league, and would be fine making similar calls with Jerry Jeudy, Cedric Tillman, and the Browns running backs.
The Seahawks are the third and final clear favorite of the week, as they face off against a weak Saints team. Seattle has been committed to the run, ranking 31st in PROE through two weeks. With Zach Charbonnet doubtful, the table is set for Kenneth Walker to have the full workload that made him one of my favorite best ball picks. Walker has been one of the most efficient and explosive backs thus far, and as a 7 point favorite, he’s in a dream spot. He’s an RB1 this week. As for the passing game, Sam Darnold and company are likely to have a limited number of attempts this week. That probably keeps Cooper Kupp out of starting contention for most leagues. However, despite the small size of Seattle’s passing pie, no receiver eats a bigger share of his teams pie than Jaxon Smith-Njigba, with a whopping 60% air yards share and 41% target share. That’s led JSN to a WR7 rank in expected points, and he’s a locked in fringe WR1 regardless of matchup.
On the Saints side, they’ve been more productive and fantasy-friendly than many expected, largely due to a lightning-fast neutral pace of 19.6 seconds, four seconds faster than any other team. Like the Browns, they aren’t going to score many touchdowns, but the fast pace and concentration of the offense makes Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Juwan Johnson, and Rashid Shaheed solid floor and median bets.
Toss-up Games (-3 to +3)
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