Final Thoughts: Week 8

Best Ball Update

• Best Ball Portfolio: 185 advancing teams. 23.0% (+4.2% vs expected)

• Best Ball Mania: 35 advancing teams. 23.3% (+6.6% vs expected)

• Vulnerability Index: 1.15 (13 teams on the cusp, 15 teams vulnerable)

• Best Case Scenario: 56 teams advance

• Worst Case Scenario: 12 teams advance

I’m up to a 23% advance rate in Best Mania, +2% and +3 teams from last week, putting me in the 78th percentile overall.

The loss of Nico Collins hurts, as my advance rate on Nico teams cratered from 24% to 8% after his tough week and concussion. That’s a good reminder of just how fluid the best ball situation remains, especially considering nearly half of the drafted quarterbacks are out this week due to injury or bye (though I think that will favor me, based on my QB exposures).

Still, I’m psyched for the return of my most drafted player Josh Downs, as well as probable expanded usage for Jaylin Noel, who’s my second most drafted player.

I’m currently advancing 18% of my Noel teams, which is poised to improve. Based on the results from Thursday Night Football, bbmdb.com has me up to 8/34 (23%) of Noel teams advancing, before he even plays. With a strong performance from Noel, that could be enough to vault me into the 80th percentile for higher.

All-in-all, I’m happy with the results (and injury luck) I’ve had thus far.

Week 8

Injury Considerations

QBs:

• Michael Penix - questionable (5% to play)

• Bryce Young - doubtful (1% to play)

• Brocky Purdy - out

• Jayden Daniels - out

• Lamar Jackson - out

• Tyrod Taylor - out

RBs:

• D’Andre Swift - questionable (85% to play)

• Breece Hall - questionable (80% to play)

• Tyler Allgeier - questionable (65% to play)

• Bucky Irving - out

WRs:

• Matthew Golden - questionable (55% to play)

• Drake London - questionable (50% to play)

• Chris Godwin - out

• A.J. Brown - out

• Nico Collins - out

• Calvin Ridley - out

• Ricky Pearsall - out

• Christian Kirk - out

TEs:

• Dalton Kincaid - questionable (65% to play)

• Mason Taylor - questionable (80% to play)

• David Njoku - questionable (40% to play)

Weather Considerations

As you might have guessed, I am not a meteorologist. However, there are some occasions where weather impacts my start/sit decisions, or DFS considerations. My process for accounting for this to usually look at Kevin Roth’s analysis here, and via NFLweather.com, before breaking it down into a watch vs warning methodology to get a quick handle on it.

Weather Watch - monitoring, but no knock to projection

• Bills at Panthers - 9% chance of rain

• Commanders at Chiefs - 35% chance of rain

• Packers at Steelers - 45 degrees with “patchy frost”

Weather Warning - small knock to projection

• None this week

My Start/Sit Decisions

In this section, I’ll provide the tougher start/sit decisions I’m making, and why I’m doing it. I’ll also keep a running count on these over the course of the year. My goal for these start/sit decisions is to be 50% or better, as most of these are coinflips (or worse) in projections. For tracker purposes, I use 5 points as the difference between correct, neutral, and wrong.

Season Tracker: 15 correct, 16 neutral, 7 wrong - 68%

• Weeks 1-5: 11 correct, 12 neutral, 4 wrong - 73%

• Week 6: 3 correct, 2 neutral, 1 wrong - 75%

• Week 7: 1 correct, 2 neutral, 2 wrong - 33%

Week 8 Start/Sits

Jaylin Noel > R.J. Harvey and TreVeyon Henderson

Let’s start with best ball hope Noel, who flashed on limited routes last week. Noel is probably a talented player, with many of the best film analysts flagging him as one of best route running prospects in this years’ rookie class. C.J. Stroud targeted him aggressively last week, including down the field, providing early indications that he’s not a limited slot receiver that can only get open close to the line of scrimmage. His role requires some projection and trust in the Texans coaching staff to not play Braxton Berrios more than him, but the upside is very high.

Joe Flacco > Marcus Mariota and Kirk Cousins

It’s a week from hell for quarterbacks, especially for those of us in 14-team and superflex leagues. There’s a string of waiver options this week, but it’s probably Joe Flacco who I trust most. The Bengals have a solid team total (25.5 points), throw often (5.1 PROE), and are facing a Jets defense with a run stopping advantage on the defensive line. None of the other QB streaming options have as good as a set up, leaving Flacco as my favorite start of the group.

Harold Fannin > Mason Taylor

Fannin didn’t have strong production last week due to the high winds and gamescript, but his market share usage was strong, with an 83% route rate, 28% target share, and 17% air yards share. With the Browns 7 point underdogs against a Patriots defense that is much tougher vs the run than the pass, I like Fannin’s chances of a strong game, especially if David Njoku is out again.

Xavier Worthy > Tetairoa McMillan

McMillan is his team’s WR1, while Worthy has seemingly been relegated to the WR2 role immediately upon Rashee Rice’s return. However, the Panthers are likely to run the ball as much as possible this week, and have a strong schematic matchup there. Conversely, we know the Chiefs are going to throw at a league-leading rate, and the Commanders high usage of man coverage should benefit Worthy, who is a regular beneficiary of designed man-beating concepts and deep shot plays. Worthy’s range of outcomes is wider, but he’s my preferred start.

Chris Olave > George Pickens

Olave is in a strong schematic matchup, as he should see a litany of short and immediate targets against the Bucs pass-funnel defense. There is downside risk, as Spencer Rattler will have to diagnose Todd Bowles’ exotic blitz packages, but if he can on a somewhat regualr basis, Olave is probably the one to benefit. As for Pickens, he’s simply in a tough matchup, as the Broncos will play aggressive man coverage, and are effective doing it. I expect Dak Prescott to target Pickens down the field in these cases, where Pickens is one of the best in the league. Still, that’s a volatile role in a true strength-on-strength matchup. Neither a 2 point or 20 point performance from Pickens would surprise me, which pushes me toward Olave as the safer start.

DFS Decisions

Abbreviated DFS section this week, as I’ll be out of pocket for the rest of the morning. Best of luck this week, and I’ll see you all on Tuesday for Waiver Targets.