Envisioning the Perfect Draft: Pick 12
One of my favorite tools that Rotoviz has is the ADP Draft Grid. It shows you where each player is going based on current ADP, broken down by pick and round.
It’s a useful tool to get a quick snapshot of the current landscape and to think through how we want to draft out of certain slots. To be, it’s most useful for picks near the turn, where it’s more rare to find big fallers past ADP that we need to adjust our plan for. On the turn, we’re usually forced to be more aggressive if we want to emphasize correlation and our player takes.
Below, I’ve put together my current strategy for the 12 slot, as I view it as one of the best, and most fun, slots to currently draft out of.
Turn 1: 1.12 and 2.01
There’s no right or wrong answers at this turn, as there’s a clear tier of the top 19 players to me, and I’m happy to select any of them at 1.12 and 2.01. Though non-QB-pass-catcher combinatorial ownership is largely overstated, this is a range where I want to mix it up. One way to do that is to look at the positions I intend to draft later.
As you notice from the Draft Grid above, there are no tight ends perfectly aligned with the 12 slot until round eight or nine, essentially locking us out of the best bets for a playoff spike week at tight end.1 Given the strength of the position in rounds 8-12, that’s not a dealbreaker, but something to consider, given how important tight end spike weeks are.
For that reason, I’ll select Brock Bowers at 1.12. Put frankly, Bowers outscored many of the players drafted in this range as a rookie last year, despite horrible quarterback play, scoring few touchdowns, and ranking as TE18 in ESPN’s receiver rating. Each of those is likely to improve in 2025, creating a dynamic where Bowers is roughly equivalent to others in this range from a season-long projection standpoint, while above them in his ability to separate at his position in the playoff weeks.
At 2.01, I’m happy to select a receiver or running back, largely based on who the room leaves me. If any of the round one receivers fall, I’d select them. If not, then any of Devon Achane, Brian Thomas Jr, or Drake London works for me.
Since this is envisioning an ideal world, let’s select Brian Thomas Jr, as there’s a clear running back I want at 3.12.
Turn 2: 3.12 and 4.01
At 3.12, there’s a clear running back I want in Omarion Hampton.2 Hampton was one of my favorite picks at this turn to start the summer, though I backed off as his ADP fell. While Greg Roman’s offenses haven’t heavily targeted running backs, Najee Harris’ eye injury has led to Hampton as RB1 at the start of training camp. Hampton has a three down profile, and was incredibly good in many advanced metrics, and the Chargers look set to explode as an offense, with:
Justin Herbert fully healthy
Both rookie receivers and the rookie tight end already garnering camp hype
Ladd McConkey a budding superstar
A good offensive line that likely improved for 2025
Defensive regression that leads to more shootouts
While Hampton probably doesn’t have a 2026 1.01 in his range of outcomes, I could see him reaching Bijan Robinson or Breece Hall3 level of heights as a mid R1 pick.
At 4.01, there’s also a clear reason to draft right now, and one of the reasons I’m writing this article. Essentially the entire summer, I’ve been a skeptic on Xavier Worthy’s price4, as he struggled for most of his rookie season, until the Chiefs played him more in the slot and lowered his ADOT. With Rashee Rice back, I didn’t think the market was properly accounting for the chances that Worthy would be primarily relegated to a Jameson Williams type of role (and Worthy’s ADP did drop to that range). However, with Rice almost certainly suspended for ~4 games, I don’t think the market is reacting positively enough for Worthy.
While Worthy did struggle for much of last season, he was a 21 year year old rookie whose elite quarterback struggled to throw accurate deep balls. The Chiefs also operated as a low passing volume offense to start the year, before opening it up down the stretch — which “happened” to coincide with Worthy’s breakout. The Chiefs also relied on an elite defense and regularly won close games where they played conservatively. Put simply, each of these elements is likely to be more favorable for Worthy in 2025. With Rashee out, Worthy might simply operate as a win-at-all depths receiver and never look back. Given the relative weakness of the third and beginning of the fourth round, why not take a shot on Worthy as the highest upside player?
Turn 3: 5.12 and 6.01
The 5/6 turn hasn’t been my favorite spot to draft lately, as early season staples Kenneth Walker, George Pickens, and George Kittle are all far ahead of if now. However, a few quality options remain, including some high upside rookie running backs, in TreVeyon Henderson and R.J. Harvey.
At 5.12, my selection would be Travis Hunter or Zay Flowers if either fell, but assuming they do not, it’s one of the rookie backs for me. Deciding between the two has been a challenge, as Henderson is the stronger prospect, while Harvey is in the much more favorable situation. At receiver, I’d usually make the bet on talent, but at running back, situation is often more important. Additionally, Harvey is also about a round cheaper than he was for the early stages of Best Ball Mania, increasing his relative benefit, so I’ll add him at 5.12.
At 6.01, I could go Henderson, or a locked-in veteran RB in James Conner, but with the selection of Bowers, I want to be cautious about getting too far behind at receiver. That leads me to Jajuan Jennings, who probably has one of the widest range of outcomes in 2025. Last year, Jennings was an absolute stud, smashing in raw production, YPPR, TPPR, and even first downs per route run. With Brandon Aiyuk likely to miss the start of the season, Ricky Pearsall nursing a nagging hamstring injury, and Kittle and Christian McCaffrey a year older, Jennings is seemingly poised to reclaim his role from 2024. If he does, he’s a smash pick here.
***Note: I finished this before Jennings injury. He’s likely to fall a round or two now.***
Turn 4: 7.12 and 8.01
7.12 is the easiest round so far, as one of my favorite picks over the last two seasons is here in Josh Downs. While Downs is a riskier pick now than he was most of the summer given is ADP rise and Anthony Richardson’s resurgence, he remains an immensely talented receiver with multiple outs to greatly beating his ADP. Simply put, if Downs sees more via a boost in volume via playing in more 2WR sets (and he was awesome as an outside receiver last year) or a higher passing rate, or he receives an improvement in QB play (via Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson taking a step forward), then Downs is beating ADP. If none of that happens, Downs is still priced similarly to his 2024 production. He’s a clear small-miss, big-hit option.
At 8.01, I’ll also select a player I’m in on, despite his ADP falling for most of the spring and summer, in Patrick Mahomes. I wrote up the Mahomes case here, but simply put, Mahomes is likely to lead another passing heavy offense with his best supporting cast in place since 2022. While the Rice suspension complicates his early season outcomes, I expect Mahomes and company to be absolutely humming down the stretch, when best ball fates are truly decided. Given the selection of Worthy earlier, I’m thrilled to add Mahomes at ADP at 8.01, and which leads me to the
1-2-4-1 start that I love.
Turn 5: 9.12 and 10.01
At 9.12, I’m hoping for one of Bo Nix or Brock Purdy to fall, given my selections of Harvey and Jennings. And luckily, Purdy did fall, making him the easy choice at 9.12.
At 10.01, I have a few different options, as Evan Engram and Travis Kelce are also stacking picks at tight end, though neither is a player I’m excited about, especially given I already have Bowers. I probably should go running back here, but in the scenarios where Harvey is the lead back from week one, I’m stronger than ADP would imply. Additionally, there are two awesome picks at receiver, with Tre Harris building out my Chargers bet and Luther Burden playing my Purdy-Jennings stack in week 17. Given I already have a Mahomes-Worthy-Harvey week 17 stack, I’ll pull the ADP/value lever here, getting Harris at 10.01 a few picks after ADP and avoid reaching for the injured Burden.
Turn 6: 11.12 and 12.01
Turn 6 is mostly uneventful, as Marquise Brown and Bayshul Tuten are aligned in ADP and easy picks. Brown is largely a stack-only pick for me, but given my strong bet on the Chiefs and their week 17 opponent, he’s a good choice here. Tuten is a swing for the fences bet, but one I’m very comfortable making in this range, as an arbitrage bet on Harvey.
Turn 7: 13.12 and 14.01
Turn 7 is the last turn where I feel a strong need to follow ADP, given its predictiveness falls off in round 15. At 13.12, I’ll select the falling Kyle Pitts, who has recovered from his foot injury and is getting unprompted love from his new quarterback. The Falcons are a team I’m excited about, as Penix is an aggressive downfield thrower who doesn’t take sacks, coupled with an up-tempo offense that probably throws more in 2025. Pitts isn’t a good enough blocker to play as a full-time tight end, limiting his playaction role and upside, but he can win downfield and is likely to have some big weeks. At 14.01, I’ll select Tank Bigsby, increasing my floor and offering weekly stability at running back.
Turn 8 and 9: 15.12 through 18.01
With my last four picks, I’m likely looking at 2 running backs, one receiver, and one free pick. 15.12 is the easiest pick, as Jaylin Noel is available, who is my favorite round 3 rookie receivers, a week 17 correlation with Hampton and Harris, and one of my most drafted players so far. I’m going to reach ahead of ADP to select Brashard Smith at 16.01. Smith comes with real risk of being a zero, but he builds out my season-long bet on the Chiefs and is a correlated week 17 piece. At 17.12, I’ll select Darius Slayton, who offers early season routes, and is a correlated spike option with Bowers in week 17. And finally, at 18.01, I’ll pick Raheem Mostert, who probably sees some early work and offers contingent value if Ashton Jeanty misses time.
That brings the final team to this:
Final Thoughts
We ended up with a classic 2-6-8-2 team, with strong team bets on the Chiefs, 49ers, Chargers, and Jaguars, and week 17 correlation plays for KC-DEN, LAC-HOU, and LV-NYG.5 The team has six rookies and three second-year players, which creates some concern of a slow start that limits this teams chance of advancing. However, I took steps to mitigate this, by locking up two players from the same backfield, and selecting two veterans with probable week one roles in the last two rounds. With that construction in place, if this team can advance, it’ll almost certainly offers a higher-than-baseline chance of winning Best Ball Mania, which should always be the goal.
George Kittle is a possibility at the 3/4 turn, but he’s significantly more expensive than earlier in the summer. While this is probably where Kittle should go, Best Ball Mania is 50% filled, meaning almost half of the field already has him cheaper than you. That makes him a difficult pick, and worse than tour average 3/4 turn pick.
I continue to want to be more in on Breece Hall, as an improved offensive line, the gravity of Justin Fields, and a more committed Hall all point towards a resurgence. However, Hall needs that rushing efficiency, as a low volume passing game probably is a downgrade from his past production there, and it’s plausible (likely?) that the Jets are again a bottom half offense in 2025. It’s put me in a tough spot with him, where I acknowledge his strong upside, and even think it’s likely he bounces back, but the fragility scares me in best ball.
Hall was Hampton’s top Sim in the Box Score Scout, with a score of 93. Bijan was also on the list with a score of 29.
Even sending a likely ill-fated Ricky Pearsall > Worthy tweet that surely can’t go wrong
There’s also some small W16 correlation, with DEN-JAX and LV-HOU.