Comparing Wide Receiver Talent to ADP
While the middle IQ meme remains an effective heuristic for predicting next season fantasy scoring at wide receiver, that is usually priced directly into ADP, eliminating most of our edge.
Fortunately, we’re in a golden age of wide receiver evaluation, with numerous methods to help us determine if a receiver is good. While these methods are usually not any more predictive than simply looking at last season’s stats, they are almost always less priced into ADP, especially early in the offseason. In effect, these advanced methods help us to identify the cases where last season’s production isn’t telling us the full story, helping us to identify players that are likely to over/under perform from last season. And in 2024, we have a fully operational death star of advanced methods to evaluate wide receivers.
Quantitatively, we have Targets Per Route Run (TPPR) and Yards Per Route Run (YPPR), which are two proven statistics that measure how effective at receiver is at drawing targets and how efficient he is on a per route basis. First Downs per Route Run (1D/RR) adds further context to YPPR and helps us to identify which players were the most lucky/reliant on big plays. While we want to be conscious of small sample sizes, simply sorting by YPPR/TPPR is a simple method to determine who is good.
Qualitatively, we have ESPN’s Receiver Rating, which is based on player tracking data, and measures how effective a receiver is at multiple aspects of the position via three sub-categories of Open Score, Catch Score, and YAC Score. PFF’s receiving grade measures how effective a receiver is at running his specific assignment, and takes into account what the defense is doing. Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception tracks how effective receivers are vs man, zone, and press, as well as on specific routes.
All in all, if you want to evaluate how good at receiver is, it’s likely that information is readily available to you. Below, I’ve done that, combining 2023 results in ESPN’s Receiver Rating, YPPR, and PFF’s receiving grade into one average ranking, and then comparing that to 2024 wide receiver ADP on Underdog. By comparing these two aspects, we can identify which receivers are being drafted farthest from their 2023 level of play. While there can certainly be good reasons for this (like going from Zach Wilson/Desmond Ridder to Aaron Rodgers/Kirk Cousins), this method should prompt us to ask:
Why this gap exists?
If this gap is warranted?
Answering those questions will help us determine if the ADP is justified, and if we want to take a more aggressive stance on targeting or fading the receiver. Without further ado, let’s dive in.
Top 26 in ADP
Aggressive ADPs (red)
Among WRs with a top 26 WR ADP, we see that Garrett Wilson and Drake London are the players being drafted furthest ahead of their 2023 combined average ranking (the column on the right that averages WR ranks in PFF grade + ESPN grade + YPPR). Obviously, this is because of the aforementioned QB and offensive environment upgrades. Is this justified? My lean is yes for both, especially given the relative weakness of the second round, but it is concerning that the market is essentially saying that both Rodgers and Cousins will be near their previous peaks coming off achilles injuries in their late 30s. However, while it’s certainly plausible that many of the WRs being drafted directly behind them are better, both Wilson and London are locked in WR1s on their own team who have flashed upside in difficult situations early in their career. Even factoring in a slight decline for Rodgers and Cousins, the relative weakness of the second round keeps me in on both Wilson and London, and I’ll likely remain roughly in-line with ADP on each.
However, it’s a different story with Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, and Stefon Diggs. Each of these receivers in now 30+ years old, and their 2023 performance was a substantial decline from their previously elite peaks (unlike the elite tight ends). While we do get a small ADP discount on each compared to past seasons, the drop in ADP is for valid concerns. And, if they continue to decline, each will likely underperform their ADPs, with a high risk of bust potential. While Adams is still a locked-in WR1, Diggs and Kupp are not.
Diggs significantly declined in 2023, is switching teams, and now plays with two extremely talented wide receivers (Collins was 2nd in combined rank, Dell was 10th) on an offense that has not yet proven it will be among the leaders in pass rate (though the Diggs trade is a signal the Texans want to play that way). However, Diggs peripherals do match up neatly with Keenan Allen (which is a comparison that Matt Harmon of Reception Perception also made). Allen has had a bit of a late-career renaissance, and has been great in a slot-specific role late in his career. Given a likely favorable offensive environment and strong contingent upside if one of the other receivers missed time, I do still have interest in Diggs, even if his elite ceiling days are probably behind him.
Similar to Diggs, Kupp is now a likely secondary option on the Rams, who are led by a 36 year old quarterback with a rough recent injury history. Unlike Diggs, Kupp doesn’t have the same level of contingent upside and a probably has a slightly less favorable offensive environment. Unlike Adams, Kupp is not a locked in WR1 on his own team. In short, Kupp seems like more of a small win, potentially big loss than the other two. While it’s certainly plausible he could also see a Keenan Allen-like renaissance, I’m slightly more concerned than with Adams and Diggs.
Target Exposures:
Garrett Wilson: 1x the field (8%)
Drake London: 1x the field (8%)
Davante Adams: 0.5x-75x the field (4-6%)
Stefon Diggs: 0.5x-75x the field (4-6%)
Cooper Kupp: 0.5x the field (4%)
Conservative ADPs (blue)
Tank Dell, Nico Collins, D.J. Moore, and Brandon Aiyuk top the list of players who played better than their 2024 ADP indicates. Each shares a similar reason why.
Target competition.
Dell and Collins now face added competition from Diggs, who the market is still valuing as a near-elite wide receiver. As stated above, Diggs undeniably declined in 2023, and I’ve completely reversed my opinion on the likely 2024 pecking order among Texans’ WRs. Collins looks like a potential superstar on a team that probably wants to pass more with a potential superstar second-year QB. In a second round where no player really separates, he is my favorite WR pick, and will probably be my highest drafted round two player. Dell is also undervalued, and when he and Collins were on the field together, Dell was arguably the better player. Dell is also a second-year receiver (albeit an older one), suggesting he is more likely to improve than Collins. Given the ADP discount we get with Dell, he is one of my favorite round three/four picks, though he is directly starting to compete with the elite tight ends, who are one of the biggest keys to best ball playoff success.
Aiyuk is a similar bet to Collins, but without anything close to the potential for elite passing volume like with Collins and the Texans. Kyle Shanahan is going to run the rock and play slowly, as he has done his entire career. While a Christian McCaffrey drop-off might boost pass rates slightly, the 49ers will almost certainly not finish top ten in passing attempts. That said, Shanahan offenses are the efficiency kings of the NFL, and Aiyuk remains one of the safest bets of the second round, with some contingent upside. I’ll likely finish with a slightly higher than average amount of Aiyuk (10-12%).
D.J. Moore is also facing added target competition in Keenan Allen and Reception Perception favorite Rome Odunze. Moore is also now playing with a rookie QB, which has historically hurt fantasy production and limited passing rates. However, Caleb Williams is probably better than the average rookie QB, and he’s probably an upgrade on Justin Fields from both and efficiency and volume standpoint (less sacks and QB runs). Moore probably has the widest range of outcomes of this group, but his positional ADP is reasonable. Moore is likely better than Stefon Diggs at this stage of their careers (who goes one spot ahead), and his offensive environment is almost certainly better than Malik Nabers (who goes one spot behind). Moore also falls in a range where I’m not yet targeting an elite tight end, which reduces his competition. Overall, I don’t like Moore as much as the other three WRs with conservative ADPs, but I do think he’s a good bet in this range. I will likely take a slightly overweight stance on Moore, but I want it to be a correlated one, as a bet on Moore is also a bet that Caleb Williams is a much better rookie than the average.
Target Exposures:
Collins: 2.5x the field (20%)
Dell: 2-2.5x the field (16-20%)
Aiyuk: 1.5x the field (12%)
D.J.Moore: 1.25x (10%)
WRs with ADP 27-50
Aggressive ADPs (red)
Marquise Brown is atop this list, and in my mind, is a separate case than the next two players with aggressive ADPs. Brown topped out as roughly the 25th best WR in the league back in the 2019-2022. Essentially, he was more of #2 option than a #1, which matches his career stats, as he only has one season where he topped 1000 yards (which was driven by inefficient volume).
In 2023, amidst the terrible Cardinals offense, Brown was unproductive, inefficient, and even controlling for his team, was individually bad, ranking as the 76th best WR in the league. Now entering his 6th season in the league, it’s unlikely he is going to become better than he has been.
However, Brown is going from arguably the worst offense in the league to one of the best, with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. This is undoubtedly a huge positive for Brown overall, but he is walking into significant target competition. Travis Kelce remains near the peak of his powers, especially at getting open. Rashee Rice excelled in a narrow skillset role last season. Xavier Worthy is a first round pick with a good analytical profile. And finally, none of these options, including Brown, are X-receivers, suggesting that the ominous specter of cardio king Justin Watson will again factor into the offense. Overall, a bet on Brown on this ADP is both a bet that he returns to to his pre-2023 form, and that one of the other Chiefs weapons fails. While plausible, I prefer each of the other Chiefs’ pass catchers at their ADP, relegating Brown to correlation only status.
In contrast to 6th year WR Brown, the next two aggressively priced receivers are young and developing.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba suffered through a bad rookie season, with a combined rank of 74. He was unable to displace Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf, but they ranked 40th and 21st in combined rank last year, as one of the better 1-2 combos in the league. However, there are reasons for optimism. JSN carried a wrist injury into the season, likely slowing his development and integration into the offense. Given Lockett and Metcalf maintained their established production, it was unlikely JSN would have been able to displace them even if healthy. Additionally, Reception Perception was moderately high on his rookie season. With a likely passing volume boost to the offense this year, and Lockett and Metcalf a year older, I’m leaving a light on for JSN—even if it’s just a few candles.
Like JSN, Jameson Williams has struggled to start his career, with both injuries and a suspension slowing his development. Now entering year three, it’s now or never. While undoubtedly overpriced for what he has shown so far, Williams is the lone deep threat on a good offense, and has drawn some rave reviews from the Lions staff this spring. If that steady drumbeat continues, Williams becomes more interesting. With Williams relatively low opportunity cost at WR50, I’m fine with him, even if he is not a target. Unfortunately, Williams goes in a range where I’m mostly looking to draft running backs (and stacked pocket passing QBs), which will likely limit my exposure to him.
Target Exposures:
Marquise Brown: 0.25-0.5x the field (2-4%)
JSN: 0.75x-1x the field: (6-8%)
Jameson Williams: 0.25x-0.5x the field (2-4%)
Conservative ADPs (blue)
Rashee Rice tops the conservative ADP list for obvious reasons. The market is pricing in a roughly 8 game suspension by my estimation. I personally think he’s likely to be suspended 4-6 games (but have low confidence in my prediction), and I think he is a fine value overall. However, I specifically packed as many bags of Rice as could to end the pre-draft contests, where I could maximize the leverage at minimal levels of risk. Even with a lower ADP now, uncertainty around Rice’s situation is high, and I don’t (yet) feel compelled to take him significantly ahead of ADP.
Adding in to that is that, Rice’s production feels a bit fluky last year. The Chiefs had no other receiver options, leading Mahomes to simply hit short passes to Rice and Kelce. While Rice was extremely good at this role, I remain unconvinced it can scale to true WR1 levels, as Cooper Kupp and Amon St. Brown are both solid at beating man coverage in addition to being better vs zone coverage than Rice. With more target competition in place, I would likely be underweight Rice as a 2/3 turn pick if he rose back to where he was pre-suspension risk. However, for now, Rice’s opportunity cost is much lower. Because of that, I’d recommend being roughly even to slightly above exposure to Rice now, to maximize potential leverage (even though it’s risky), and to avoid having to take Rice at a much higher ADP if the suspension risk went away. It’s uncomfortable, but probably correct.
The other WRs with conservative ADPs in this range have a common theme. They’re older, proven vets.
Keenan Allen, Deandre Hopkins are former elite WRs now on the downside of their career. The only problem is, neither has proven willing to accept that yet, finishing with a combined ranking of 8 and 23 last year, respectively. While drafting these older WRs does come with added risk of a sudden age cliff drop-off, my read is that the risk is already priced into ADP. I’m more than happy to select both, especially given the low opportunity cost QB stacking options they open up.
Courtland Sutton is also a proven vet, but is a different bet than Hopkins and Allen. Sutton is simply a competent WR better served as a #2 option than #1. However, the Broncos have a dearth of WR options, leaving Sutton as a solid projectable volume option at a WR49 ADP. While Sutton has minimal chance of being a big-win hit, he’s likely a small win/small miss player. On builds where this is needed, I’m fine with taking him. Yet, as with Jameson Williams, this range is mostly reserved for other positions, which will likely limit my exposure to him.
And finally for this range, is Diontae Johnson. As I’ve said before, I don’t understand the Diontae hate. Put simply, he’s *clearly* the most talented wide receiver that goes in this range (other than Rice due to suspension risk), at #14 in 2023 combined rank. His issue is that he’s been trapped in mediocre-to-bad situations his entire career. Is that also the case in Carolina this year? Probably. However…
Bryce Young had the worst supporting cast in football last year. With the addition of Johnson, he now has a top-tier separator at WR, as well as a boom-bust rookie WR option in Xavier Legette. With the addition of Dave Canales, who oversaw the redemption of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield, it’s likely that the Panthers are at least a little better this season. I’m not predicting a Panthers breakout offense, but even in past mediocre offenses, Diontae has been better than this ADP of WR45, finishing as the WR38 in 2023, WR51 in 2022, WR10 in 2021, and WR23 in 2020. At this ADP, the market is essentially allowing us to freeroll a Bryce-Diontae breakout with next-to-zero downside risk in the most WR-heavy environment in the history of fantasy football. I’m in.
Target Exposures:
Keenan Allen: 1.25x the field (10%)
Deandre Hopkins: 1.25-1.5x the field (10-12%)
Courtland Sutton: 0.5x-0.75x the field (4-6%)
Diontae Johnson: 2x-2.5x the field: (16-20%)
The rest of the WRs
Aggressive ADPs (red)
Jahan Dotson, Quentin Johnston, and Jalen Tolbert are all formerly hyped young WRs that are probably bad. Johnston and Tolbert in particular have shown us essentially nothing, and I usually want no part of them. So far, even when I have Herbert or Dak, drafting one of them prompts a sickening feeling in my stomach, as I force myself to take the correlation play. Bottom line, they are correlation plays only, and on teams that are probably going to not win any money because we wasted a pick on a bad player.
Dotson has at least shown promise, with a good rookie year and a famously all-green Reception Perception chart. However, he was horrendously bad last year, and no one is sure what happened. Yet, it is curious to me that both Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel, two receivers who have been solid-to-good players in the NFL, also had down seasons last year. I’m not the guy to break down why this was the case, but it’s at least plausible that Sam Howell or the Washington scheme was simply bad for all the receivers last year. With a new offense and quarterback in play this year, I’m willing to make a low opportunity cost bet on Dotson, especially when correlated. Dotson and the Washington offense as whole will be a important to track during training camp and pre-season.
The final two guys on this list that I'll write up are Darnell Mooney and Rondale Moore. I won’t belabor the point here, as both are limited skillset players that do complementary things that are likely in the best offensive situations of their career in Atlanta. While neither has big-win upside, I think each is fine, despite their negative ranking in 2023.
Conservative ADPs (blue)
Odell Beckham and Adam Thielen were the old guys who wouldn’t go away last year, but ultimately neither delivered on his early season promise with late season results. Beckham could barely get on the field for a Ravens team badly in need of weapons down the stretch. Now on the Dolphins, I have minimal interest in him, and he’s a round 18 correlation punt play only. Thielen is more interesting, as we was objectively good for most of last season. However, he faces added target competition in Diontae and Legette, and he relied on short-route volume to drive the majority of his production last season. It’s unlikely he retains that level of volume this year, even if the Panthers are better. Ultimately, I’m fine with taking Thielen as a correlation play and on teams where some early season production from a professional wide receiver is valuable.
At the opposite end of the age spectrum, is a whole grouping of young WRs whose ADPs are too low relative to their 2023 combined rank. There are multiple ways to view this. From a bullish standpoint, if there is a whole grouping of young WRs that are underpriced relative to their true talent, then targeting those players in the most expensive WR environment every seems extremely good. If those players performed to their supposed talent level, then teams that also prioritized elite QBs, TEs, and RBs, earlier in the draft would lend itself to superteams. However… there are some reasons for bearishness.
First, many of these WRs ran a relatively small number of routes, with current fantasy darling Dontayvion Wicks at 278, Demario Douglas at 285, Khalil Shakir at 353, Wandale Robinson at 371, and Michael Wilson at 383. While it’s good that those WRs were efficient on limited volume, it’s no guarantee that it scales. Secondly, each of these receivers faces increased target competition, with Wicks in a massively crowded room, Douglas facing two rookie WRs, and Robinson and Wilson facing elite WR prospects. Ultimately, the decreased ADPs are probably justified, and I don’t think shifting to a late-round WR strategy for them is correct. However, taking correlated shots on them, and diving more deeply into other aspects of their profile that are exceptionally strong, will lead to above average bets on some players in this range. And if you do want to make a high risk bet on the small sample performance translating, hyperfagile RB teams with an elite QB and TE is likely the best way to do it. Bills stacks with Josh Allen-Dalton Kincaid-James Cook in particular seem like a fun way to do it.
Target Exposures:
Dontayvion Wicks: 1.5x the field (12%)
Wandale Robinson: 1x the field (8%)
Michael Wilson: 0.5x the field (4%)
Khalil Shakir: 0.5-0.75x the field (4-6%)
Demario Douglas: 1.5x the field: (12%)
Josh Downs: 2.5x the field (20%)
My next column will likely be a rankings update for June/July, in which I mirror the above target exposure format for all players (because I recently saw and really liked it on Jakob Sanderson’s Substack).
Until then, thanks for reading and happy drafting!