How to Play the Elite QBs
Diggs helps Allen stand out
I’m on record that the Elite QBs will flop this year, through absolutely no fault of their own. However, as I’ve said, I will not completely fade them. So, when I do draft them, it becomes a matter of constructing teams around them that can overcome the challenges to advance rate and separation during the playoff weeks. Below, I’ve analyzed how to do that with each of the big three, with one quarterback and strategy standing out.
Key Takeaways
Mahomes - likely exposure ~6%
Pros: Late-stacking options
Cons: QB environment, challenging primary stack partner, limited rushing upside
Hurts - likely exposure ~6%
Pros: rushing upside, easy-to-stack very good 1B stack partner
Cons: QB environment, challenging primary stack partner, limited late-stacking options
Allen - likely exposure ~10%
Pros: Late-stacking options, rushing upside, easier primary stacking partner
Cons: QB environment
Patrick Mahomes
The challenge for Mahomes is three-fold.
His ADP (21.5) is the highest of three, and the only one in the second round, but it’s probably not because drafters actually prefer him. Each of his primary week 17 game stacking partners (Chase, Higgins, Mixon) line up with his ADP, and some Travis Kelce drafters continue to take Mahomes in the second round. Both of these factors are slightly elevating Mahomes’ ADP, preventing his fall to the third round, as we’ve seen with Hurts and Allen.
While Mahomes is probably the best real-life quarterback in the league, he doesn’t offer the same Konami code rushing upside as Allen and Hurts do, slightly reducing his weekly floor and ceiling relative to those two. Mahomes is so good as a passer that it doesn’t really matter, but it’s at least a slight dock against Mahomes.
It’s difficult to get the Kelce-Mahomes stack without reaching for one of them. If you take Kelce ADP (~pick 6), you have to slightly reach to ~pick 19 for Mahomes, knowing that other drafters are getting third round Hurts and Allen (and other QB1s cheaper than last year). If you reach on Kelce to take Mahomes at or after ADP, you’re asking Kelce to essentially replicate what he did last season, at a higher ADP, while all of the other elite tight ends are going much cheaper than last year. Either of these scenarios is likely to cripple your advance rate, even if Mahomes and Kelce do smash.
How to play Mahomes
For me, I’m not reaching for either Kelce or Mahomes. The scenario where I draft him most is when I have Chase or Higgins, but I’m likely to be locked out of Burrow.
For example, if I take Chase at 2, but the #3 spot drafter takes Higgins (at pick 22) before he comes back to me, Mahomes is probably my best way to maximize a Chase week 17 spike week (setting aside advance rate concerns), as the Higgins drafter is likely to select Burrow one pick in front of me in round four.
In this scenario, I then like grabbing one of the elite RBs as my other 2/3 turn pick. The plus of drafting Mahomes is that he has multiple cheap stacking options, each of whom could hit your lineup in a useful way. We can maximize this by structuring our team to smash at running back, so that when one (or two) of Toney/Moore/Rice/MVS/James/etc spike, that score replicates the score of a receiver with a much higher ADP.
Additionally, I prefer 3 late tight ends with Mahomes, as we “know” that Kelce is not “the guy we need in week 17.” Armed with the information that the best tight end did not separate from the field, the three-late-TE strategy is more likely to hit, turning a roughly 50-50 bet into a roughly 60-40 one.
To recap, my optimal/most common Mahomes draft will most likely have:
Mahomes at/after ADP
No Kelce (barring something crazy)
One of Chase or Higgins
1 RB in the first 3 rounds
At least 2 stacked Chiefs’ WRs
3 late tight ends (as Kelce is not the guy we need in week 17)
Ultimately, I expect to be underweight Mahomes, likely in the ~6% range, and significantly underweight the Mahomes-Kelce pairing.
Jalen Hurts
While Hurts is probably not as talented as Mahomes or Allen, his supporting cast and elite rushing production makes that irrelevant for best ball. Similar to Mahomes, Hurts’ does face the challenge of his top option being difficult to pair at ADP.
A.J. Brown usually goes ~pick 8, while Hurts is on the other side of the board at ~pick 25. Similar to Mahomes, I don’t recommend taking Hurts in round two, at roughly pick 17, given Mahomes and Allen usually go significantly later, and the environmental disadvantages for the elite QBs this year. However, we do have a few advantages with Hurts relative to Mahomes.
Devonta Smith is very good: While Devonta Smith probably isn’t quite elite like A.J. Brown and the other round one receivers, he is very very good, per advanced per-route metrics and film charting. While a Hurts-Brown stack is ideal, a Hurts-Smith stack has similar upside, both from an advance rate and weekly standpoint. Drafting Smith in round two and Hurts in round three is perfectly fine.
Hurts’ rushing: While it’s not ideal to draft Hurts without his top-two options, his rushing ability still provides elite weekly upside.
Dallas Goedert’s ADP: It aligns nicely with Hurts, providing another plausible path to playing the upside of a Hurts passing spike week.
A.J. Brown is elite AND his positional environment doesn’t punish reaching: While I don’t love to reach on Brown in the top five, given the presence of Smith and the Eagles’ more-rushing centric playcalling relative to the Chiefs, Bills, and Bengals, both the metrics and film indicate he’s an elite receiver, so I can understand the appeal. Unlike Kelce, who’s positional environment makes the reach even tougher, the elevated receiver ADPs reduce the impact of the reach for Brown.
How to play Jalen Hurts
At current ADP, Hurts-Smith stacks will be my most common way to play Hurts, though I’ll likely be underweight the field. Similarly, I’ll also be underweight Hurts without Brown or Smith, as I’m willing to bet against the narrow path of rushing-only or rushing+Goedert being what is needed in week 17, given the challenges to advance rate for those teams. However, I likely will be overweight the field on Hurts-Brown stacks, especially in time-boxed tournaments where I know the stack will be uncommon.
Ultimately, I expect to be underweight Hurts, probably in the ~6% total drafted range, with a breakdown roughly as follows:
Hurts-Smith stacks 3%
Hurts-Brown 2%
Hurts-Goedert/naked 1%
Josh Allen
The case for Josh Allen is much different than the first two, for three reasons:
The rushing upside of Hurts
The late-stacking options of Mahomes
Stefon Diggs (easier to pair with Allen and a better bet than AJB/Kelce)
Rushing upside of Hurts
While Allen’s rushing upside (48 rushing YPG, 7 TDs) probably isn’t quite as high as Hurts (51 rushing YPG, 13 TDs) due to the “tush push” play remaining legal, it’s similar, and substantially higher than Mahomes (21 rushing YPG, 4 TDs). Both Allen’s weekly floor and ceiling get a boost relative to more-passing reliant QBs like Mahomes.
Late stacking options of Mahomes
Similar to Mahomes, and unlike Hurts, he has a plethora of late-round stacking options, including Gabe Davis, Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, Khalil Shair, and Denote Harty. Davis in particular seems like a good bet, given his correlation with Allen’s weekly ceiling outcomes and his impending positive TD regression. And I say this after completely fading Davis last year. Kincaid and Knox are both ideal late-round TE options, and make a 3-late-TE strategy ideal for an early Allen selection. I’m meh on Shakir and Harty, but perfectly willing to select either on Allen teams for correlation.
Stefon Diggs
Let me be as clear as I can (and wax poetic for a moment). Stefon Diggs is an elite, hall-of-fame-level wide receiver. He has been for nearly half a decade, regularly racking up “all green” Reception Perception charts, which he did again last year.
His per route advanced metrics were essentially the same as Justin Jefferson’s - Jefferson just ran 100 more routes.
Last season, Diggs was actually outscoring Jefferson, before an injury to Josh Allen slowed him down. From weeks 1-8, before Allen’s injury in week 9, Diggs was on pace to score 421 PPR points, which would’ve been the 2nd-most PPR points ever by a receiver.
Yet, as a collective group, we have almost always kicked Diggs to that second-tier of the elite wide receivers, never drafting him in the half of the first round, despite him being just as good, if not better, than Justin Jefferson, Ja’marr Chase, Cooper Kupp, and Tyreek Hill. Don’t agree? Tough, you’re wrong. And I’m drafting like it, because agree or not, Diggs unlocks Allen in way that neither A.J. Brown nor Kelce do for Hurts or Mahomes.
Why Diggs is different (and how he unlocks Allen)
Similar to Brown, and when compared to Kelce, the elevated ADPs of wide receivers reduce the impact of the reach for Diggs, as all of the top wide receivers are pushed together, while elite tight ends are cheaper than ever. So, at tight end, Kelce has to contend with each of the TE2-7 going roughly a round later than last year. Diggs and Brown have the opposite. Diggs also has 4 advantages over Brown:
While Brown has to contend with an elite #2 receiver in Devonta Smith, Diggs does not. Gabe Davis remains a limited player who does not earn targets at a high rate, providing Diggs with a higher floor of weekly targets compared to Brown.
Similarly, Diggs also has the advantage of the Bills’ pass-first offense, while Brown must contend with a more situationally-dependent Eagles offense, which again elevates Diggs target volume.
Allen goes 2-3 picks after Hurts, increasing the probability of completing the stack (and/or game stack with Rhamondre)
The selection of Diggs (instead of Brown), followed by a selection of Devonta Smith at/about ADP, also gives us two outs to an elite QB in the middle of round 3. While not a priority for me, that is an interesting start right now given the uncertainty and ADP volatility of the round 2/3 RBs.
How to play Josh Allen
I’m only taking Josh Allen in round 3, at or around ADP, as reaching on him to pair with Diggs at/about pick 19 generates the same issues I’ve outlined with reaching for Mahomes and Hurts. However, there are a few ways to play Allen that I’m doing:
Take Diggs at ~ADP; Allen falls to ~pick 31. Ideal, but likely only happening about 20-25% of the time.
Take Allen in at ADP in round three, and stack him with relatively cheap Bills later. Given Allen’s rushing ability and cheap non-Diggs weapons, this is perfectly fine. However, I do expect there to be challenges to both advance rate and weekly upside play, albeit on a lesser level than Mahomes and Hurts.
Slightly reach on Diggs, and then take Allen at ADP in round three. Again, I strongly believe Diggs is just as good as Kupp and Hill, so I don’t think there’s much of a cost for doing so. If you select Diggs at pick 5, your probability of completing the Allen stack is roughly 40%. Bumping Diggs to pick 4 increases that to about 50%. And taking Diggs at pick three means you’re completing the stack about 60% of the time.
Ultimately, I expect my Allen exposure to be roughly in line or slightly over the field (which I did not expect even a few weeks ago), given the multiple paths to play him relative to Mahomes and Hurts.
Summing it up
While I will still likely be underweight on the elite QBs as a group, I do think there are paths for them this year, if you play them with thought. Allen in particular stands out, and I’ve been hammering the Diggs reach strategy in the recent timeboxed tournaments, as shown below.
