What to Expect from the Cowboys Offense in 2023
McCarthy says he wants to run the damn ball... but does he mean it?
We’ve all seen the quote, and it is in fact, not great. While speaking to the media at the NFL Combine, McCarthy said, “I’ve been where Kellen has been. Kellen wants to light the scoreboard up. But I want to run the damn ball so I can rest my defense. Think when you're a coordinator, you know but you’re in charge of the offense. Being a head coach and being a play-caller, you’re a little more in tune. I don't desire to be the No. 1 offense in the league. I want to be the No. 1 team in the league with the number of wins and the championship. And if we gotta give up some production and take care of the ball better to get that, then that’s what we’ll do.”
Understandably, that quote has generated concern in the fantasy community, as we see from the pace guru himself, Pat Thorman, below.
While I understand McCarthy’s frustration at the flurry of turnovers last year, the majority of these were fluky plays that were not an accurate picture of the talent of his quarterback. Many of them were due to bad receiver play, which, with the addition of Brandin Cooks and Michael Gallup another year removed from his ACL tear, should be improved in 2023.
Despite the turnovers, the Cowboys offense with Dak at the helm was generally excellent again last year, ranking 7th in EPA per play. So, if McCarthy’s plan is really to limit passing volume, it seems he drew the wrong conclusion from last year’s results. However, just because it wouldn’t make rational sense, doesn’t mean a coach won’t do it, as Sigmund Bloom’s notorious #AssumptionOfRationalCoaching theory tells us. Luckily, after examining the evidence, I’m not sure McCarthy intends to (fully) follow through with his statement. Let’s dive in.
Kellen vs McCarthy
With Kellen Moore at offensive coordinator, the Cowboys have ranked 4th, 1st, and 2nd in neutral script pace rate over the last three seasons. Last year, from week 7 on (Dak missed weeks 2-6), the Cowboys ranked 1st in snap rate in neutral game script situations. So, at a minimum, the departure of Moore very likely portends a reduction in pace at the very least. And a slower pace means less plays, which means less fantasy points, which is bad. However, despite the narrative that Dallas has been pass-happy under Moore, they have generally been about league-average, and finished near the bottom of the league last-year overall, ranking 15th in neutral script situations with Dak at QB.
While it’s likely the Cowboys’ pace slows under McCarthy’s direction, his coaching history paints a different picture for the passing rate.
Per the Rotoviz Pace app, during McCarthy’s last season in Green Bay, his offense passed at the 2nd-highest neutral script rate, and finished 18th in pace. In fact, over his last five seasons in Green Bay, the Packers passed at a 57% rate, also the 2nd-highest rate in the league. So, a renewed commitment to running the ball would actually be out of the norm for McCarthy, and a tactic he has not utilized since at least the early 2010s. Furthermore, I’m not convinced McCarthy wanted to play slowly, as the Packers finished 12th in no-huddle rate. Given that post-McCarthy the Packers slowed to dead last in snap rate and 4th-lowest in no-huddle rate, it’s at least plausible that Aaron Rodgers’ penchant for utilizing hard counts and the full play clock to study the defense pre-snap were the driving force in the slow pace (though, I should note, it’s also likely that Rodgers was factor in the high passing rate).
Additionally, Dak has also proven to be a very good quarterback in this league, something McCarthy certainly recognizes. From that same press conference, “My goal every year as an offensive coach was to make sure the quarterback played in every game,” McCarthy said. “If Dak Prescott plays in every game next year, I feel we’re going to have a hell of a season.”
So, while McCarthy is understandably frustrated with the turnovers, this doesn’t seem like a Russell Wilson in Seattle scenario, where a head coach feels they must limit the quarterback’s role to maximize efficiency. In fact, the Cowboys have taken steps this offseason suggesting they want to maximize the role of the passing game.
Off-season Moves
In March, the Cowboys traded for proven burner Brandin Cooks, who according to both metrics and film analysis, is still a talented wide receiver. With Cooks in the offense, the Cowboys now have one of the best trios of wide receivers in the league, with CeeDee Lamb as an all-around WR1 that can play inside and out, Cooks a talented deep threat and high-end WR2, and assuming improved health, Gallup a true “X” receiver capable of winning contested catches. Furthermore, the Cowboys moves at other positions also support a commitment to the passing game.
At tight end, despite the Cowboys decision to let Dalton Schultz walk in free agency, the team drafted an elite athlete at tight end in Luke Schoonmaker, who profiles more as a passing weapon than a blocker. And at running back, the team let Ezekiel Elliott walk, without signing a between-the-tackles replacement (unless you count Ronald Jones), despite at least some concerns about Tony Pollard’s ability to handle a huge workload. In sum, there seems to be a distinct divide between what McCarthy said, and what the Cowboys did.
Factoring in the Film
While a bit tangential to the pace and passing rate analysis, I do find it interesting that some credible film analysts were frustrated with Kellen Moore's offense, as they found it stale, conservative, and predictable. I’ve been a fan of Moore over the last three seasons, as the Cowboys ramped up pace and pass attempts relative to the Jason Garrett regime, and the Cowboys regular season efficiency results have certainly been great. However, after reading Bob Sturm's work in particular, I think it’s at least plausible that Moore’s scheme was limiting the ceiling of the passing offense.
Furthermore, while Brian Schottenheimer isn’t known to be a fantasy friendly coordinator, he has engineered high-ADOT, efficient passing attacks in the past, and the addition of Brandin Cooks would be fit perfectly with that. So, while I’m reticent to assert that Schottenimer/McCarthy’s scheme will be an improvement to Moore’s, I do think we can conclude that the passing attack will likely employ more vertical concepts, which could raise the weekly ceiling of the offense.
Putting it Together
In sum, I predict that the 2023 Cowboys likely will:
Play at a slower pace, which will probably limit volume and reduce overall fantasy production.
Throw at a slightly higher rate, which will likely partially offset the pace reduction.
Call more vertical pass concepts, which will probably increase the volatility of the passing attack on a week-to-week basis.
Throw to a more talented group of receivers, which will likely reduce fluky turnovers and raise the median and ceiling outlook for the offense.
Fantasy Implications
While I understand the negative sentiment, and I agree a slow pace/below average passing rate pathway is plausible, I think median outlook is a slight reduction in play volume, with a similar or slightly higher passing rate. We should still expect the offense to be highly efficient, and arguably even more efficient than the last few years, given the receiver improvements and an end to 200+ Ezekiel Elliott plunges up the middle. Finally, given 5 of their last 6 fantasy games are in a dome or warm weather, the other is a potential shootout at Buffalo, and week 17 is a home matchup vs the Lions, Dak and company could be monsters exactly when we need them the most. Ultimately, the Cowboys weapons have a slightly wider range of outcomes than in years prior, but the ceiling remains similar to past year, which is among the highest in the league.
At similar ADPs to last year, they remain in my tier 2 category (Target), out of my Priority/Target/Value/Fade construct, meaning I’m still very much in at their current prices. With CeeDee Lamb and Amon St. Brown both at the end of the first round, that pairing is a fun way to immediately create a high-upside week 17 game stack that fits within my macro strategy.