Walking Through a Big Dog Draft

I just completed my first high stakes draft of the year, a $500 Big Dog. The Big Dog top prize is $200K to first, with an advance structure of:

• 2/12 in the regular season

• 1/6

• 1/6

• 10 person final (min prize of $10,000)

Below, I’ve detailed the strategy and tactics I used, as well as some of my inner thoughts throughout the draft.

Pre-Draft Strategy

I got the 1.03, which is arguably my least favorite draft position this year (unless Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs fall, and then it’s my favorite). I have Ja’marr Chase, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Puka Nacua in a tier, and they are separated by essentially nothing in the ETR projections.

Effectively, what that means is I often like my choices at the 2.10 much less than the 2.08 or 2.09, as I want to target a running back there, and there’s often no RBs left that I like by 2.10. So far, that’s led me to an outsized share on Brock Bowers in that range, but elite tight end isn’t my favorite strategy for the Big Dog, given the much smaller pod sizes in the playoff weeks. I’m largely expecting to be forced into a zero RB start, or reach for one of the RBs that I view as more of R3 picks.

I also scan through to see who the other drafters are. I see some names I recognize, including ShaidyAdvice. Shaidy is one of the minds behind Legendary Upside’s Sidekick, and he is going to click the top pick on the Sidekick nearly every time. Given that he is drafting out of the 1.12, that means he will very likely have a hyperfragile room with lots of early RBs. While some people are frustrated that they are essentially drafting against a tool, I would love it if I was closer to Shaidy, as I would have insight into who I could/could not try to push around the turn. At 1.03, my actionable knowledge is more limited to knowing RB picks are coming early and often.

Round 1

No fall for Bijan or Gibbs, which is disappointing, though expected. I’m now setting up for a zero or hero RB build. Of the three receivers, I like Chase the most, as I think he is the safest of the bunch. He has the best QB, less falloff/injury risk than Puka/Stafford, less systemic offense risk than the Seahawks, and Flacco showed a propensity to feed him last year when Burrow went down. This also sets me up for a potential stack if Burrow falls past ADP later.

Selection: Jamarr Chase

Rounds 2-3

As I’m on the clock, I check the board out, and I see Shaidy got Justin Jefferson at 1.12. Sick guys. He’s almost certainly hammering RBs at the R3 turn now. Unfortunately I don’t have an RB to take here, other than Jeremiyah Love, who I’m lukewarm on. In the Mastiff or Pomeranian (4/12 advance), I’d probably do that. But I think Love will share time early, and the Cardinals probably don’t score much, so I like him less in 2/12 advance contests like the Big Dog.

However both Bowers and Nico Collins are there, and I’m very into each. In most drafts, I’d select Bowers. However, as I mentioned in the strategy section, the elite tight ends are generally less necessary in the Big Dog, as the playoff pods are smaller. I also love the price on CJ Stroud and Jaylen Noel later, so Nico unlocks a team stack I’m very into at current ADP.

For my round three pick, George Pickens falls past ADP as the turn drafters go Bowers, Love, and pull Breece Hall and Kyren Williams up. This locks me into a zero RB start, which isn’t ideal, but man, a WR room of Chase, Collins, and Pickens has insane weekly ceiling. By ADP, I have 3 top ten WRs, even ahead of the age old rule of 3+ top 15 WRs that Rotoviz and Shawn Siegele popularized with zero RB. Fun start.

Selections: Nico Collins and George Pickens

Rounds 4-5

As expected, Shaidy double taps RBs, and my top RB target Cam Skattebo doesn’t make it back. I like D’Andre Swift here, as do the ETR ranks. But I can probably push him, given the RB heavy start of the drafters in the 1-2 spots. Colston Loveland is probably the top pick here, and assuming I get Swift, starts a Bears team stack that would enable either a falling Burrow or Caleb Williams selection at or just behind ADP in the QB window. Even with my reticence on elite tight end in this tournament, it’s hard not to be excited about Loveland’s upside in this offense, given his insane performance down the stretch last season.

Selections: Colston Loveland and D’Andre Swift

Rounds 6-7

So the 1.08 is everyone’s favorite type of drafter, aka the “take 3+ elite QBs” type of drafter. This guy is cratering his own advance rate and reducing the rake for everyone else. We thank him for his service.

Additionally, this move also usually enables a tactical advantage for the drafters that are checking the full board, as I am. If you can notice/take advantage of his build and get your QBs early, the room will often leave a second drafter out in the cold (which another LegUp guy just did to me in a Pomeranian). That makes Caleb Williams an easy pick first for me here, as he is at ADP (which is likely a small positional value in this room now). The 1.04 and 1.02 drafters have recognized this as well and selected Drake Maye and Jalen Hurts slightly ahead of ADP too.

For my round 7 pick, I like the RBs in this range, as they are the lower-end starters that still have projectable volume. Essentially, the old school dead zones guys that we now get to draft later (and still pair them with elite WRs and TEs). While I still prefer taking the shots on Bijan/Gibbs early, and the hyperfragile RB rooms are certainly the May/June/early July meta, I love what Swift and Pollard (and Rhamondre/Warren/Chuba) enable with our other picks. Pollard is the highest ranked of these guys by ETR, so I’ll lock him in here.

Selections: Caleb Williams and Tony Pollard

Rounds 8-9

The QBs are flying off the board, as people start realizing what the Allen-Lamar-Burrow drafter has done. I love the Caleb pick even more now. Unfortunately, there are no big fallers at RB from it, as I would have really liked to get my third RB here (one reason not to take Warren earlier was to hopefully get Dowdle here, but no luck this time). However there are a bunch of WRs I like, as well as Sam Laporta (who is a week 17 stack with my Bears). That’s super appealing, but that’s a high cost TE room, especially in the Big Dog. I’m quite torn and take a bit longer to think through this.

Ultimately I go with two WRs, for very different reasons. Michael Pittman is a great “win the flex” type of pick, as he is going to post lots of high floor scores throughout the season. As my WR4, he will often slot in there. Josh Downs is either going to smash this ADP, or is ~30+ picks overpriced, and it mostly just comes down to his role (Ben Gretch put it well here).¹ If he plays in 2WR sets, which I would put at about 60% chance right now, then he smashes. He’s a fun pairing with this WR room, because his high end ceiling outcome (and health from Chase/Collins/Pickens) would mean I probably would have four top 20 WRs.

Selections: Michael Pittman and Josh Downs

Team Recap Through 9 Rounds

QB: Caleb Williams
RB: D’Andre Swift, Tony Pollard
WR: Ja’marr Chase, Nico Collins, George Pickens, Michael Pittman, Josh Downs
TE: Colston Loveland

Rounds 10-11

Missing on the Vikings RBs (Jordan Mason by one pick) and Ra’chaad White is super annoying (and bad for my chances of advancing this team). It’s another small loss at RB that has hurt me a couple times in this draft, and forced me into a thinner build than I’d like. The QBs are also flying off the board, and the 1.01 drafter still has none. I assume he will probably go Malik Willis here, and maybe even Stroud (which would be unfortunate for me, as ETR has Stroud ranked in this range already).

However, I don’t think I can pass on George Kittle, who is seemingly somehow going to be ready for week one. If Kittle is healthier or plays well sooner than expected, he almost certainly smashes this ADP and is one of the highest advance rate players of the year. That seems like the exact type of bet to make with this team, as he could help advance my weak RB room to the playoffs. It also means I can be done at TE, enabling an extra RB flier later, which I’ll likely need on this team.

For my round 11 pick, Stroud survives the turn, though both Willis and Sam Darnold go, as the 1.01 is feeling the pressure. I’m torn between Stroud now and Tyrone Tracy, who is near ADP and a week 17 correlation piece with Pickens. Tough call given my RB room, but I elect to go Stroud, as QBs could fly off the board and leave me in a tough spot at any time in this room.

Selections: George Kittle and C.J. Stroud

Rounds 12-13

Woody Marks falls on the way back to me, and he’s an easy selection as continued build out of my Texans bet. He isn’t good, nor a top target for me, but he proved capable of filling a lead back role and accumulating volume as a rookie, and that’s a profile that is useful to this team. Additionally, David Montgomery probably isn’t that good, and I’m not skeptical that the Texans attempt to run the football as their identity this year given the talented WR room they have. Marks has receiving upside, and could see more of an impact there than the market expects.

For my round 13 pick, I have another QB or RB choice. It’s going to be an ADP reach either way, so I elect to go Rodgers, as he’s a stack with Pittman. Rodgers is probably the last QB without late season bench risk, and the draft capital cost in this range is minimal anyway, so I don’t mind reaching if the tactical elements of the draft demand it, as they do here.

Selections: Woody Marks and Aaron Rodgers

Rounds 14-15

It’s finally RB season for this team, and I’m thrilled to get some of my favorite late targets here. Dylan Sampson will post a few spike weeks as the pass-catching back for the Browns, and he probably has more contingency upside than this ADP suggests given Quinshon Judkins’ injury. He’s like a combination bet of Tyaje Spears and Tyler Allgeier, and he’s arguably THE reason zero RB could work well this year. Ideal fit for this team.

For my second pick of this turn, Tank Bigsby probably offers minimal non-contingency upside, but he has massive upside if Saquon gets injured. Given he’s on a good offense, with a strong chance at the lead role in a contingency, and has proven to be a quality rusher, he’s a boom-bust bet that fits well on this team.

Selections: Dylan Sampson and Tank Bigsby

Rounds 16-17

It’s mostly speculative RBs now, other than Ray Davis and Braelon Allen. I’ll take one of them in round 17, as I doubt the 1.01-1.02 drafters are taking RB here, so I can finalize my WR room. Jaylin Noel will be my most drafted player this year, and he is a Core Bet for me this year. All reports indicate he is the Texans slot WR, and he will probably play 60%+ of snaps. He’s also performed extremely well in Reception Perception, both as a prospect and as a rookie, and Matt Waldman has hyped him recently as well. Noel is also bigger than you think, more similar in size to Stefon Diggs than Josh Downs, increasing the chances that he could play more than an exclusive slot role. For my money, no other late round pick combines the role and talent that he has, and I expect he will deliver multiple strong spike weeks (with strong correlation to games where Stroud throws often).

Round 18

With my final pick, I select George Holani, who is seemingly in the Seahawks plans at RB this year, particularly in a receiving role. Given none of Jadarian Price, Emmanuel Wilson, or Zach Charbonnet are great receivers, it’s probable that Holani starts the year in a Tyjae Spears-like change of pace role, with upside for more if Price/Wilson falter early. His ceiling is probably quite limited, as I doubt he could be more than a 50% snap share guy, but as a last round pick, his potential for a strong early start to the year could be a useful to chaperone this running back room.

Selection: George Holani

Final Team and Thoughts

I’d rate this team around an 87 overall, as the RB room is thinner than I would generally like. If there is one pick I’d want back, it’s probably Loveland, as I don’t love elite tight end in the Big Dog format, and none of my later running back targets fell to me. Still, I have two week one starters at RB, which is the weakness of this team, and there are multiple paths to both spike and sustained upside throughout the season.

At the other positions, I probably have the best WR room in the league, with slightly above average QB and TE rooms. Each of my QBs is stacked, and I have two full team bets on the Texans and Bears.

As for other teams, the 1.08 teams’ triple elite QB room really hurt the 1.01 and 1.05 drafters chances at advancing, given their QB rooms. Shaidy is also very likely weaker than he would like to be at QB too, as he effectively needs Mahomes both to start week one, and play well early off the torn ACL.

Overall, I’d estimate my chances of advancing at 20-25%, which is about 1.3x the baseline rate (16.7%).

1. “Josh Downs — really anything about him that isn’t about whether he plays in two-WR sets, because that seems like the whole bet (he might still be a “small win” without a huge two-WR role because of how his depth of target overlaps with Pittman’s vacated role, so he’s a good pick regardless, but if he plays in two-WR sets we might be talking about one of the best values on the board)”