The Sketch: Week Six

New Lamar, Meet Old Lamar

Jumping straight into week six this week, as I’m on a tighter schedule than normal. As far as my thoughts on week five, they can succinctly be summarized by as both the joy of nailing my DFS recommendations (and watching Josh Downs again) and the pain of seeing my most-drafted best ball player Nico Collins go down with a hamstring injury on a 70-yrd touchdown. The duality of man, indeed.

Week Six Data

This chart is intended to be a one-stop shop for each matchup that details a bunch of key factors to the game, including O/U, team implied points, pace, team pass/rush rates, each teams offensive/defensive efficiency, and the strength of each teams offensive/defensive lines.¹ Below the chart, I’ll analyze a few key points that stand out.

Game Environment

Each week, this section will include analysis on each team’s projected points, pace, and matchup for their upcoming game.

Totals

Each week, I break matchups down into Slight Favorites, Clear Favorites, and Toss-up games, as those teams (that also have high O/Us) are who we want to target most.²

Slight Favorites (-3.5 to -6.5)

49ers (-3.5/26.25), Ravens (-6.5/29), Bucs (-3.5/22.5), Packers (-5/26.25), Falcons (-6/26.5), Bengals (-3.5/25.75)

The Ravens stand out in this group, with a whopping 29 point total. It’s well-deserved as the Baltimore has boasted one of the best rushing and passing attacks so far, and they are facing off against one of the worst defenses in the league. Jaylen Daniels and company will probably need to push Lamar and company, as the Ravens rank 30th in PROE. The Ravens have a strong rushing defense, but Daniels and company look well-equipped to attack them via the air. There are pathways to failure here if Washington falls more than one score behind, but this game should be high-scoring.

The 49ers, Packers, Falcons, and Bengals fall in the next tier with 25-26 point implied totals.

Now at 2-3, the 49ers are desperate for a win, and get a banged up Seattle defense this week. As usual, the 49ers are a strong bet for fantasy production even if Seattle’s defense is better than in recent seasons. On the Seattle side, they remain a fast-paced and pass-heavy offense, ranking top five in each. However, the 49ers have nearly the exact same pass rush and run stop win rates as the Giants go, which suffocated the Seahawks offense early. Geno and company are used to pressure, and it likely happens at a high rate again this week.

The Packers face off against the Cardinals, with a defense that is allowing an egregious 57% dropback success rate, 5% higher than any other team in the league. The Packers have struggled with consistency on both dropbacks and rush attempts, but they still rank above average in EPA/play for each. Given the poor Cardinals defense, this looks like a massive get right spot for all the Packers.

The Falcons have tilted heavily to the pass in recent weeks, and the Panthers remain a weak choose-your-own-adventure defense. Still, I’d expect Zac Robinson to try and get Bijan going early in this one, and if he does, the Falcons sky-high pass rates probably fall back to earth this week. Ultimately though, the Falcons should have success through the air and the ground.

The Bengals close this tier out as a 1-4 team desperate for a win. It’s hard to blame Joe Burrow and the offense, as they rank second in dropback success rate and third in EPA/dropback. Unfortunately for the Bengals, their defense is allowed a 50% success rate on dropbacks and a 51% success rate on rushes, which is 3% higher than any other team. The Giants are a middling offense, but there are paths to another shootout for the Bengals this week, and likely most weeks going forward.

The Bucs close out the slight favorites with a 22.5 total, as they face off against the Spencer Rattler -led Saints. The Saints offensive line play has cratered lately due to injuries, destroying their early season success. Given the Saints had a bottom-five PROE with Derek Carr at QB, we may see Malik Willis-levels of rushing attempts this week. The Bucs have been a solid offense with a high PROE so far, but the combination of the Saints likely rushing emphasis and their above average defense limits our excitement about Tampa Bay this week.

Clear Favorites (-7 or more)

Eagles (-9/26), Texans (-7/22.5)

The Eagles face off against a Browns offense that is historically bad. Despite an above average defense with one of the best defensive lines in the league, Cleveland has no chance, as the offense ranks dead last in dropback success rate at 33%, 3% worse than any other team. For the Eagles part, they boast one of the best offensive support casts in the league, and a boom-bust defense that relies on the defensive line to generate negative plays. All the normal Eagles are good starts this week, but there’s a wide range of outcomes given the strong Cleveland defense.

The loss of Nico Collins hurts, and it seemingly impacted the Texans implied total this week, which is only 22.5, despite a matchup against the below average Patriots pass defense. Adding to C.J. Stroud’s burden is a poor offensive line, rushing attack, and situational coaching, which is consistently forcing him into long down and distance situations. Somehow Stroud has still led Houston to an above average passing attack. Facing a strong Patriots run defense this week, rational coaching would shift more to the pass. But as we’ve seen, rational coaching does not yet exist in Houston.

Toss-up games (-3 to +3)

Lions (-3/27.5), Bears (-2/23.5), Colts (-1/22), Chargers (-3/19.25), Steelers (-3/19.75), Bills (-2.5/21.25)

There’s a much smaller group of toss-up games this week, and other than Cowboys-Lions, they are considerably less fun than the bonanza games from week five.

Luckily for us, Cowboys-Lions does have the makings of a shootout, with a week-highest 52 point total. Despite playing slowly and rushing the ball at a high rate, the Lions have one of the best offensive lines in the league, boosting efficiency. For the Cowboys part, they have a poor defense, giving up the worst rush EPA/play. That’s Gibbs and Monty’s music, and we should expect another awesome performance from one or both of them this week. With the Lions likely being successful on offense, the Cowboys will again ask Dak Prescott to put on his cape, with a misfit crew of weapons around him. Prescott has managed his way to a roughly league-average offense so far, but the Cowboys lightning-fast pace and pass-first emphasis boost their chances and their fantasy performances. Additionally, the Cowboys enjoy a slight run blocking advantage vs a weak Lions run-defending DL so far. If the Lions commit to bringing some run blitzes, we could see Dak take advantage with some quick throws after the snap.

The Bears-Jags probably offer the second-best chance at fantasy fun given both teams are willing to throw the ball, and the Jags pass defense remains one of the worst in the league. However, the Bears have a stellar pass defense but vulnerable rushing defense, which likely incentivizes the Jags to run the ball more. Ultimately I expect this game to have some big individual plays, but think most outcomes don’t quite lead to a shootout.

The Chargers-Broncos and Steelers-Raiders games are both very unlikely to offer much fantasy fun, with no team cracking a 20 point implied team total. If there is a breakout, it probably comes from a long Justin Fields scramble or deep bomb, as the down-to-down play strongly favors the defense in each of these matchups.

The Colts-Titans game features two of the least consistent QBs on a snap-to-snap basis, but there are pathways to fantasy fun here. The Titans have faced a gauntlet of pass defenses to start the year with the Bears (1st in EPA/dropback), Jets (5th), Packers (12th), and Dolphins (15th). Meanwhile, the Colts rank 24th, by far the easiest matchup for Will Levis and company so far. On the other side, the Titans defense boasts one of the best defensive dropback success rates, but they have been extremely vulnerable to big plays. With Michael Pittman ruled out and Anthony Richardson back, the Colts have two deep threat receivers to work alongside future pro bowl slot receiver Josh Downs. It’s likely to be a bumpy ride, but we should see hear some “let’s cut to Colts-Titans” calls from Scott Hanson this week.

Pace

Fast Pace Matchups

Eagles-Browns. It’s gross, and the chances of a blowout are high, but this is a clear fast pace spot, as both teams play fast and are above average in PROE. I have no confidence in the Browns ability to score, but if the Eagles are able to score quickly and efficiently, we do probably see outsized play volume. I’ve seen worse game stacks for large field DFS tournaments.

Texans-Patriots. Unlike Eagles-Browns, I’m actually excited about this game, despite the peripherals being slightly worse. Both teams also play fast, but the Texans are only slightly above average, while the Patriots are a run-in-all-situations team. That said… we again face the age old question of the year… “what if Drake Maye is good?” If he is, and he hits on some long bomb or scramble touchdown that this offense previously lacked any chance of, then this game could get fun in a hurry. Given the Patriots run-first attack and the Texans relatively weaker run defense, that scenario is unlikely, but a Maye + pass catcher + Dell/Diggs stack surrounded by chalk will probably be a fun way to play a millymaker lineup.

Jets-Bills. I keep hearing about how slow the Jets play, and how they’re pace killers, and I just don’t see it. Their neutral pace is 27.7 seconds, which ranks in the top half of the league. They throw at a 2.6% PROE, which also ranks in the top half of the league. Enter the Bills, who play at an average pace and throw at a slightly below average rate, but are likely to be without James Cook this week. While both pass defenses are strong, elevated play volume for Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers both coming off losses seems like a potential fun spot.

Slow Pace Matchups

Steelers-Raiders. Both teams play slowly, and neither wants to throw the football. Neither has a total over 20. Let’s move on here.

Bucs-Saints. While the Saints have played fast and the Bucs do throw often, I expect the start of Spencer Rattler will decrease play volume here. If the Bucs are able to get an early lead, it’s hard to see pathways to fantasy fun, absent an unexpected Rattler-led explosion.

Ravens-Commanders. For all of the aforementioned fantasy fun in this game, the numbers do indicate decreased play volume, as both team plays slowly, and the almost clear favorite Ravens strongly prefer rushing. If we are going to see faster than expected pace, we’ll likely need it to come via explosive plays or a strong offensive performance from Jayden Daniels, who is certainly capable of it.

OL/DL

DL Mismatches

• 49ers DL (50%/32%) vs Seahawks OL (48%/67%)

• Texans DL (50%/33%) vs Patriots OL (42%/69%)

• Broncos pass rush (55%) vs Chargers pass blocking (43%)

• Bills run defense (34%) vs Jets run blocking (68%)

OL Mismatches

• Lions OL (69%/74%) vs Cowboys DL (37%/29%)

• Bears run blocking (74%) vs Jaguars run defense (29%)

• Bucs run blocking (72%) vs Saints run defense (29%)

• Cardinals run blocking (74%) vs Packers run defense (29%)

• Colts run blocking (75%) vs Titans run defense (30%)

DFS Plan of Attack

Each week, I’ll go through my plan of attack for the Draftkings main slate. This will usually consists of a few different subsections, listed below:

• The Centerpiece (the player, team, or theme that the slate hinges on)

• What to do with the chalk

• Input Volatility

• Games to target

• Lineup starters

The Centerpiece: Convoluted Chalk