The Sketch: Week Nine

The Bills are back

Week Nine Data

This chart is intended to be a one-stop shop for each matchup that details a bunch of key factors to the game, including O/U, team implied points, pace, team pass/rush rates, each teams offensive/defensive efficiency, and the strength of each teams offensive/defensive lines.¹ Below the chart, I’ll analyze a few key points that stand out.

Game Environment

Each week, this section will include analysis on each team’s projected points, pace, and matchup for their upcoming game.

Totals

Each week, I break matchups down into Slight Favorites, Clear Favorites, and Toss-up games, as those teams (that also have high O/Us) are who we want to target most.²

Slight Favorites (-3.5 to -6.5)

It’s nearly a full slate this week, and there’s four matchups with a slight favorite on the main slate. The Bills lead the list, with the second highest implied total of the week in a matchup that’s probably even better than what some of the underlying metrics indicate, given the return of Tua Tagovailoa. Buffalo has quietly turned reached above average in both PROE and neutral pace, and the Dolphins skill guys can of course score from anyone. With a ton of input volatility on the Bills side and solid projections/moderate ownership on the Dolphins side, this looks to be among the best contrarian options for large-field DFS tournaments.

The Lions are second in implied team total, and their war machine marches on, despite a tough divisional matchup vs the Packers. With Jameson Williams suspended, there’s a chance the offense condenses a bit around their four other main guys. But the fact that they still have four other main guys speaks to the difficulty of projection their outcomes in any week, especially given the continue to funnel targets toward secondary and tertiary tight ends and receivers. Still, if Jordan Love is able to play, this game could be among the highest-scoring and most competitive on the week, increasing our interest in DFS.

The Vikings have the third-best total among slight favorites, and the game environment is incredible. Both the Vikings and Colts are top 10 in neutral pace, and both have positive PROEs when Flacco starts. Sadly, this game isn’t on the main slate, but I’m looking to find ways to play guys from this game in my season-long lineups. And of course, it is again Josh Downs SZN.

The Commanders are fourth, but Jayden Daniels and company have shown an elite ceiling. The primary issue from a DFS standpoint is the plethora of guys they use. You’re starting Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Brian Robinson Jr., and even Zach Ertz in most leagues, but their prices have reached a point in DFS they makes it difficult.

The Titans are slight favorites, but with only a 20.5 implied team total and Tony Pollard nursing a sore foot, I don’t foresee much fantasy fun here.

Clear Favorites (-7 or more)

As usual, the Ravens and Chiefs lead the clear favorite category, with whopping 28 and 27 point implied team totals respectively. The Bengals, Eagles, and Saints are in very good spots as well, and I’d be looking to break ties in favor of guys on these teams in season-long leagues. Of all of these teams, the Bengals look to face the most difficult matchup, as for all their troubles, the Raiders still have a very good defensive line, and is the type of opponent that has given Cincinnati some trouble this year. Still, in a near must-win game for Burrow and company, it feels dangerous to bet against them.

Similarly, the Ravens face a Broncos defense that has been good this year, and could pose a stronger challenge than what Baltimore has seen in recent weeks. Ultimately though, having to defend Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry on the same team, with a slew of solid receiving options around them is a task unlike any other in the current NFL. With the Ravens pass defense still struggling with both consistency and with big plays, I’ve played much crazier things than a Ravens stack with a Broncos bring back.

The Chiefs and Eagles are both in better than usual spots for their passing games, as both the Jaguars and Bucs are worse against the pass than the rush. The Chiefs are killing opponents with a thousand paper cuts, which reduces their appeal slightly (though they have just missed on a few deep shots in recent weeks). The Eagles are the opposite, mostly relying on explosive plays to generate their offensive success. With the Jaguars sieve of a pass defense against them, A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith should have plenty of opportunities for deep bombs this week.

The Saints have been a totally different (and much worse) offense after their offensive line injuries. But this Panthers defense just made Bo Nix look like an All-Pro, so the Saints can probably do whatever they want here.

Toss-up games (-3 to +3)

The Seahawks-Rams and Falcons-Cowboys are probably the chalk DFS games of the week, as both matchups feature fast-paced teams that have explosive offenses. The Falcons lead the way, with the second-bets implied team total on the week. Without Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence, this Cowboys defense has been atrocious against the run, giving up nearly double the EPA per rush as the next closest team. Mike Zimmer is scheming up some success against the passing game, but Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier are poised for a monster week. On the flip side, the Falcons defense is poor against both the pass and rush. The Cowboys lack talent at nearly offensive position other than QB, WR1, and TE, but that might be enough in this matchup. A Cowboys passing game stack with either Robinson or Allgeier is easily my favorite way to play this, and especially so if London or the other Falcons passing options are heavily owned.

While Falcons-Cowboys is the best, Seahawks-Rams isn’t far behind. The Seahawks continue to struggle in matchups where they are pressured heavily, but this Rams defensive line is not that, even if they have progressed into a roughly average unit. With KW3 in an elite role and one of the most explsosive backs in football, and Geno and the passing game continuing to play at a high level, I like both paths for Seattle. On the Rams side, they are a fully operational Death Star, with one of the most talented core units and a decent offensive line. The Seahawks passing defense has been average so far, but their run defense is a total sieve. The Rams probably prefer to run the ball in this matchup, but with Kupp and Puka back, it’s easy to see explosive passing games as well. I’ll probably be open to playing this game from all angles on Sunday.

Despite not being on the main slate, I continue to be more optimistic than most about both the Jets and the Texans. Both offenses are simply struggling with quick pass pressure at high rates, and to me, that remains one of the easiest things to scheme against. So far, neither offensive coordinator has shown an ability to do that, but I want to trust in both Stroud and Rodgers figuring that out (and each has elevated his overall unit so far). However, with two of the best and most consistent pass defenses in this matchup, it’s unlikely that my optimism is rewarded this week, barring some explosive plays from Tank Dell or Garrett Wilson. Furthermore, the Jets have a relatively weak run defense, and Joe Mixon has been very good so far. I understand why the Jets are favored, but it’s easy to see a path where the Texans pound New York with the run game while Rodgers and company are forced to play from behind vs this talented Texans unit.

Pace

Fast Pace Matchups

1. Falcons-Cowboys: Combined neutral pace = 53.2 seconds

2. Chargers-Brown: 55.2 seconds

3. Vikings-Colts: 55.4 seconds

Slow Pace Matchups

1. Bengals-Raiders: 59.3 seconds

2. Commanders-Giants: 57.5 seconds

3. Ravens-Broncos: 57.4 seconds

OL/DL

DL Mismatches

• Texans DL vs Jets OL

• Browns DL vs Chargers DL

• Raiders run defense vs Bengals run blocking

• Jets run defense vs Texans run blocking

OL Mismatches

• Falcons OL vs Cowboys DL

• Bears OL vs Cardinals DL

• Eagles OL vs Jaguars DL

• Lions OL vs Packers DL

• Chiefs OL vs Bucs DL

• Panthers run blocking vs Saints run defense

DFS Plan of Attack

Each week, I’ll go through my plan of attack for the Draftkings main slate. This will usually consists of a few different subsections, listed below:

• The Centerpiece (the player, team, or theme that the slate hinges on)

• What to do with the chalk

• Input Volatility

• Games to target

• Lineup starters

The Centerpiece: Attacking a strong, wide week

With only two teams on bye and a slew of strong teams/games to target, it’s likely to both be a high-scoring and spread ownership week. These weeks are often my least favorite to play, as it’s often better suited for a large number of lineups vice the few slightly contrarian hand-builds I like to play. Still, I do think are some clear spots to attack, and I intend to play more lineups than usual.

What to do with the chalk

Chalk to fade

• Drake London and Ray-Ray McCloud. I’ve been in on the Falcons passing game stuff the last few weeks, but it’s hard to see it this week. The field is all over London especially, as the Falcons have one of the highest implied team totals on the week. However, the Cowboys have the weakest rush defense in the NFL, and while the Falcons have increased their pass rate, they still slightly prefer rushing. If the field is going to bet more heavily on the passing game (or even at an equal rate) to the rushing game, I strongly prefer to bet on the rushing side of it.

• Chase Brown. The Raiders are a slightly below average run defense, but it’s not because of their DL, which remains strong. Furthermore, the Bengals have been poor in run blocking so far, and strongly prefer passing to rushing. While Chase Brown certainly has the explosiveness to break one long run, it’s a mediocre matchup at best, and he will likely be quite owned.

• Raiders and Panthers bring backs (stacks only). I get it, Brock Bowers and Jacob Coker are exciting rookies, and the field wants to play their opponents with a bring back. Still, with both the Saints and Bengals projecting for ownership, the Raiders and Panthers are being brought along. If you are going to play them, I’d restrict it to Bengals or Saints game stacks only.

Priority Chalk

• Bijan Robinson. Bijan is in a smash spot, with arguably the best rushing matchup, on a team with a high implied team total, in a game with the highest O/U and fastest pace on the week. Additionally, his passing game teammates project to be very-owned enabling us to gain leverage on the field. He’ll be a feature of my teams this week.

• Alvin Kamara. Kamara is arguably in as good of a spot as Bijan, and probably offer a higher floor from a workload and gamescript standpoint. Still, Kamara is less talented as a rusher (and probably as a receiver) than Bijan at this point in his career, and if we’re breaking ties, I’d lean Bijan as my preference, even without factoring in the $400 discount.

Input Volatility

• The Bills. Suddenly, the Bills look to have a plethora of weapons around Josh Allen, with Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Amari Cooper, Dalton Kincaid, and James Cook all recently flashing or talented options. With the Bills increasing their pass rate and pace in recent weeks, and the potentially explosive Dolphins on the other side, playing in to the projection volatility is exciting.

• The Bears. Similar to the Bills, the Bears have a plethora of offensive options, and are occasionally willing to play fast and throw often. The Cardinals defense is weak all-around, but has been particularly vulnerable to the pass. If Waldon is willing (or forced) to attack aggressively, there are paths to ceiling here.

Games/Teams to Target

• Falcons-Cowboys. It’s easily the highest total of the week, but as of now, there’s a clear path to play it with only moderate ownership. Dak + 2 pass-catchers + Bijan (or even Allgeier in the largest-field tournaments). If this ownership holds, this construction and Bijan + a Cowboys pass-catcher mini correlations will be one of favorites way to play this slate.

• Seahawks-Rams. There’s not as clear of a path as Falcons-Cowboys, as I think the Seahawks could choose to attack through the air or ground. The Rams probably prefer to attack via the ground, but with Kupp and Puka back, they could easily choose (or be pushed) to attack more via the pass.

• Bills-Dolphins. I’m going to lean into the input volatility of the Bills and play only this game in a 3-20 max entry tournaments, relying on the sims to mix and match around it.

• The Saints. It’s hard to see them completely failing, and it seems very likely that one of Kamara or Olave will top 20 points this week. Given the contrarian game stacks I like above, I like adding one of Kamara or Olave to those as a strong base build.

• Bengals-Raiders. The Bengals are in a good spot, but it strikes me as wrong that the market prefers the run game to the pass game. With Higgins out, I think Burrow + Chase + one of Burton, Iosivas, or Gesicki is interesting, along with an optional Bowers, Meyers, or Mattison bring back.

Lineup starters

• Dak + CD + Ferguson + Bijan (or Allgeier)

• Falcons onslaught with Cowboys bring back

• Geno + 2 pass catchers + one of Puka/Kyren/Kupp

• Stafford + Puka + Kupp + KW3/Lockett

• Rams-Seahawks onslaught

• Josh Allen + 2 pass-catchers + one of Achane/Tyreek/Waddle

• Burrow + Chase + one of Burton/Gesicki/Iosivas + optional bring back of Meyers/Bowers/Mattison