The Sketch: Week Eight

The Jets Takeoff

Week Eight Data

This chart is intended to be a one-stop shop for each matchup that details a bunch of key factors to the game, including O/U, team implied points, pace, team pass/rush rates, each teams offensive/defensive efficiency, and the strength of each teams offensive/defensive lines.¹ Below the chart, I’ll analyze a few key points that stand out.

Game Environment

Each week, this section will include analysis on each team’s projected points, pace, and matchup for their upcoming game.

Totals

Each week, I break matchups down into Slight Favorites, Clear Favorites, and Toss-up games, as those teams (that also have high O/Us) are who we want to target most.²

Slight Favorites (-3.5 to -6.5)

Full slate this week, and there’s five slight matchups with a slight favorite. However, only three of those fall on the main slate, which suggests a weaker fantasy environment and RedZone experience than normal. The Packers lead the list, with the second highest implied total of the week as they face the porous Jaguars defense. Green Bay has struggled with consistency on offense, but continues to find big plays, especially through the passing game. That’s a great fit with the Jaguars’ dead last defense in dropback EPA/play. While the Packers are roughly neutral in PROE (with Love at QB) and pace, any uptick in pass rate here could quickly generate ceiling outcomes.

Similarly, the Texans have been an effective but uninspiring offense that plays and passes at relatively neutral rates. They also get a matchup against a poor Colts defense, though Indy has played better in recent weeks. The Texans will need to be pushed, but if Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor can create some big plays, there’s path to a shootout here.

The return of Tua Tagovailoa has instantly revitalized the Dolphins in the market eyes, and for good reasons. Miami leads the league in plays per game and plays fast. Their PROE is the lowest in the league, but we shouldn’t be surprised considering the slew of bad quarterbacks they’ve been rolling out. With Tua back and alongside Hill, Waddle, Achane, and Mostert, it’s a wheels-up situation, assuming they pass more. I expect solid ownerships on the whole team in DFS, and for good reason.

Clear Favorites (-7 or more)

We have a whopping six games with a clear favorite this week, and all but one of them is on the main slate. Given the relative lack of slight favorites, I’m more interested than normal in heavily stacking a clear favorite and just betting on that team to smash. And as usual, we have two teams well-positioned to do just that, with the Lions and Ravens leading the implied team totals list. Both teams have expensive pieces, but there are reasonable ways to play each team, and at very little ownership. I’m more interested in the Ravens than the Lions, as the Titans seem extremely likely to just run into a shell and force a reasonable loss. The Browns, on the other hand, continue to play fast, and barring one run-heavy week, continue to throw the ball at a high rate. With Jameis Winston now at the helm, the Browns could reasonably play at the fastest rate, throw the ball at the highest rate, and throw the ball at the deepest average depth. Will they be successful? Probably not, but man all the main ingredients are in place for fantasy goodness.

The Chiefs and Broncos lead the next tier, which is not a sentence I expected to be writing this season. Mahomes has played poorly (for his standards) to start this year, despite a very good Chiefs offensive line supporting him. Still, the Chiefs are masters of consistency, with the best rushing success rate and fourth-best passing success rate on the season. The Raiders have a strong defensive line, but are roughly average as a unit overall, suggesting there are some paths to fun fantasy outcomes for the Chiefs.
The Broncos also have a dominant offensive line, with the top pass block win rate and a top ten run block win rate. Bo Nix is still struggling as a passer, but the Broncos run game has been impressive lately, and the Panthers defense remains vulnerable to everything. Javonte Williams probably ends up as one of the chalk RBs on the slate, and for good reasons.

Toss-up games (-3 to +3)

Given there are no byes this week, there are slightly less toss-up games than I’d expect, and the Vikings-Rams already played. Of the main slate games, Bengals-Eagles, Bills-Seahawks, and Falcons-Bucs look most appealing.

To me, Bills-Seahawks look to be the most fun, as the Bills have slightly increased their PROE lately, and they played fast. The Seahawks continue to rank near the league in pace and PROE, and even without D.K. Metcalf, they have a talented offense. For the Bills, we should expect some regression in plays per game, which likely leads to more fantasy points for the whole offense. Additionally, neither team has a particularly strong defense. I like the over here, at bargain bin projected ownerships, I like playing this game in some large-fields GPPs.

Bengals-Eagles is the market’s projection for best game environment, given the 48.5 O/U, and I’m certainly interested in it as well. The Bengals continue to pass the ball at a high rate, and each team has a slew of explosive playmakers that are a threat to score from anywhere on the field. One long touchdown and this game could easily be off to the races. Still, the Bengals defense is more vulnerable on the ground to consistent rushes than explosive ones, and the Eagles strong DL could create some problems for Burrow, especially if he’s without Tee Higgins. On a normal large slate with no byes, I probably wouldn’t play this game, but given the wide projected spreads, I do think there’s some merit to playing it.

Pace

Fast Pace Matchups

1. Chargers-Saints: Combined neutral pace = 55.3 seconds

2. Bills-Seahawks: 55.4 seconds

3. Colts-Texans: 55.5 seconds

Slow Pace Matchups

1. Bears-Commanders: 58.4 seconds

2. Lions-Titans: 58.3 seconds

3. Panthers-Broncos: 58.0 seconds

OL/DL

DL Mismatches

• Jets run defense (34%) vs Patriots run blocking (67%)

• Eagles run defense (34%) vs Bengals run blocking (68%)

• Texans pass rush (51%) vs Colts pass blocking (53%)

OL Mismatches

• Chargers run blocking (72%) vs Saints run defense (26%)

• Bucs and Falcons OL vs Bucs and Falcons DL

• Dolphins OL (61%/72%) vs Cardinals DL (27%/29%)

• Broncos OL (72%/73%) vs Panthers DL (29%/26%)

DFS Plan of Attack

Each week, I’ll go through my plan of attack for the Draftkings main slate. This will usually consists of a few different subsections, listed below:

• The Centerpiece (the player, team, or theme that the slate hinges on)

• What to do with the chalk

• Input Volatility

• Games to target

• Lineup starters

The Centerpiece: Chalk RB Week

There’s a slew of RBs that are projecting as chalk (for good reasons) this week. Figuring out which of them to play, and how to play them, will likely be a primary key of the slate.