The Sketch: Week 13

Prince Saquon vs King Henry

Week 13 Data

This chart is intended to be a one-stop shop for each matchup that details a bunch of key factors to the game, including O/U, team implied points, pace, team pass/rush rates, each teams offensive/defensive efficiency, and the strength of each teams offensive/defensive lines.¹ Below the chart, I’ll analyze a few key points that stand out.

Game Environment

Each week, this section will include analysis on each team’s projected points, pace, and matchup for their upcoming game.

The Thanksgiving Games

The Lions and Packers form a clear top tier (with the Lions arguably in their own) for the Thanksgiving matchups. The Lions are a clear favorite (-9.5) with an implied team total of 28.5, while the Packers are a slight favorite (-3.5) with an implied team total of 25.5. The Lions face the Bears, who have improved offensively while falling off a bit defensively in recent weeks. The Bears defense is more vulnerable to the run than the pass, and the Lions are very likely to oblige. Expect another big game for Jahmyr Gibbs, and assuming his health, David Montgomery. Detroit has a good defense all-around, but their pass rush has fallen off a bit without Aidan Hutchinson. Given the wide spread, it’s likely we’ll see a pass-heavy approach from the Bears, who put together a strong performance vs the Vikings elite defense last week.

As far as the Packers, they face a suddenly strong Miami team, in what is likely to be the most entertaining game of the day. On offense, both teams are more efficient rushing than passing, but with Tua and Love as healthy as they’ve been all season, I tend to think a fully balanced attack is where each team prefers to be. Defensively, each team is roughly average, with each team defending the run better than the pass. Neither team plays fast or has a high pass rate, but with each defense more vulnerable through the air, it’s likely one or both of them attack more through the air.

The Cowboys and Giants are the third matchup, with the Cowboys a slight favorite (-3.5), but with only a 20.5 implied team total. The Cowboys defense profiles as more of a run funnel every week, as the return of Micah Parsons has significantly improved their pass rush. The Giants are a run-first team, and are now on their third QB of the year. I expect them to attempt to establish the running game, but if pushed, Drew Lock has shown the preference to attack deep down the field. Defensively, the Giants are slightly below average vs the pass and rush, with an average to slightly above average defensive line. The Cowboys offensive line is much better run blocking than pass blocking, and given the spread and Cooper Rush under center, I expect them to rush early and often. Rico Dowdle has consolidated snaps in the last few weeks, but has yet to register a rushing touchdown on the season, and didn’t get the only GL touch last week. He’ll probably project as one of the better plays on the slate, but his ceiling is probably fragile.

Totals

Each week, I break matchups down into Slight Favorites, Clear Favorites, and Toss-up games, as those teams (that also have high O/Us) are who we want to target most.²

Slight Favorites (-3.5 to -6.5)

There’s seven slight favorites this week, with two of those the aforementioned Packers and Cowboys playing on Thanksgiving. Four of the other five fall on the main slate.

Of the main slate matchups, the Buccaneers and Commanders lead the way, with the highest implied team totals and largest spreads. After their near comeback against Dallas last week, the Commanders face off against a Titans team with a strong defense and weak, but occasionally explosive, offense. This is far from a get right spot from Jayden Daniels and company, but the 25 point implied team total is solid, and they remain one of the better offenses in football. If the Titans are able to generate a few explosive plays, there are paths where Daniels and the Commanders are pushed.

The Buccaneers face the Panthers, who have played more competitively in recent weeks, including nearly knocking a Chiefs team that isn’t as good as their record. Still, the Bucs offense is a full mismatch vs the Panthers, and probably have the highest floor for fantasy production on the week. The Bucs defense is susceptible vs the run, so we should expect another solid week for Chuba Hubbard (and maybe Jonathon Brooks), as the Panthers have maintained a strong rushing attack all season.

The Vikings are next, off a near-blown victory over the Bears. Despite some inconsistent performances in recent weeks, the Vikings remain one of the best defensive teams in the league, with a solidly above average offense. The Cardinals have alternated between Jekyll and Hyde all season, with frustratingly inconsistent performances. On paper, the Vikings offense has a strong advantage over the Cardinals defense. Defensively, the Vikings have a small advantage, but Kyler Murray’s ability to create outside of structure could pose challenges, similar to what Caleb Williams did last week. Overall, this is a fun matchup, and there are paths to shootouts here.

The Broncos and Texans round out the slight favorite group, with offenses that are nearly polar opposites of them. The Broncos having arguably the best offensive line in football, with some of the worst skill players in football, leading Bo Nix to run around and make magic late into plays. The Texans have arguably the worst offensive line in the league (and worst coaching), with some of the best skill players, leaving C.J. Stroud to scramble for his life roughly 0.2 seconds after the snap.

Luckily, each team faces a far inferior opponent. The Browns defensive line will pose challenges for the Broncos, but their defense has been vulnerable to big plays, which Nix has been hitting in recent weeks. The Broncos elite defense is also set up to stifle a mediocre Browns attack, so game script should help keep Nix out of clear passing down situations. For the Texans, a matchup against the worst passing defense in the league should be a clear get-right spot for Stroud and company. And, in theory, Stroud stacks should be among the highest upside plays on the week. However, the Texans coaching staff has consistently proven to make life harder for Stroud, so they probably already planning as many Joe Mixon early down rushes as they can against this average Jags’ rush defense.

Clear Favorites (-7 or more)

With only three clear favorites on the week, and only none on the main slate, it’s a good week for competitive Sunday football. I covered the Lions earlier, and the Chiefs are the other pre-Sunday island game. The Chiefs are whopping 13 point favorites against the Raiders, whose own coach called them the worst team in the league. If the Raiders have any hope in this game, they’ll need Maxx Crosby and the defensive line to dominate the game. With a strong Chiefs OL on the other side, that’s probably too difficult a challenge. However, it’s not all bleak, as the Raiders are worse against the pass, and don’t look now, but the Chiefs have re-emerged as one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league in recent weeks. A late season stretch where Mahomes looked like the best quarterback in the league again after managing a solid team to 10-1 would be very Brady and the Patriots like, and also extremely fun.

The Bills are on Sunday Night Football, facing off against a injury-riddled 49ers team. If Brock Purdy can return, this spread will tighten, and the total will increase, which would quickly make it one of the best game on the week. However, if Purdy can’t go, it’s likely another tough week for the 49ers, given the Bills strong offense and run defense.

Toss-up Games (-3 to +3)

With no byes this week, there’s plenty of room for toss-up games, and all of them are on the main slate. The Ravens-Eagles matchup is easily the game of the week, as best ball darling Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry square off. The Ravens are three point favorites, and their elite run defense will pose a big challenge for an Eagles attack based on the run game. Still, the Eagles are an elite rushing team, and Saquon is certainly capable of breaking an explosive rush or two. Additionally, the Eagles have a strong passing attack, and the Ravens pass defense remains average at best, even if it has improved in recent weeks. Getting Devonta Smith back would be huge, but if not, AJ Brown would again profile as arguably the best receiver play on the week.

On the Ravens side, they quite simply have the best and most diverse offense in football. The Eagles have a very good defensive unit, but very few teams have been able to stop, or even slow down this Ravens attack. Like with the other side of this matchup, this is a strength on strength matchup that should generate some high level football to watch.

Coming down a tier, the Rams-Saints, Bengals-Steelers, and Chargers-Falcons face off in competitive matchups. The Rams-Saints game has a strong 49.5 total, as neither defense is very good. The Rams 2.5 point favorites, and with their weapons at full health, should be able to consistently move the ball, despite a Saints defense that is effective at limiting explosive passing plays. On the Saints side, they’ve built a strong rushing attack that is in a good matchup against a mediocre Rams rush defense.

For Bengals-Steelers, we all know the drill. The Bengals have a horrendous offensive line and terrible run defense. It’ll be up to Joe Burrow and company to overcome a very good Steelers defense to keep Cincinnati in the playoff race. On the Steelers side, Russell Wilson and his moon balls have come back down to Earth in the last two weeks. The Bengals are much better against the pass than the rush (no still only average), so we should expect a heavy dose of the Steelers rushing attack this week.

For Chargers-Falcons, it’s a matchup of polar opposites. The Falcons play fast, and are consistently successful running and passing the ball on offense. On defense, they are consistently unsuccessful, but do a decent job of limiting big plays. For the Chargers, they are consistently unsuccessful on offense, but hit big plays in both the run and pass game. Defensively, they are consistently dominant, especially against the pass, but vulnerable to big plays. Overall, it’s essentially a strength-strength and weakness-on-weakness matchup that I like to be a fun for fantasy.

The Jets-Seahawks and Colts-Patriots round out the week as the two fastest-pace games that somehow have two of the worst totals on the week. For four teams I really liked in best ball, that’s a rough rough week 13 outcome. That said… both Anthony Richardson and Drake Maye have shown the ability to hit long plays. If one or both of them does, there are certainly paths to individual upside there.

For Jets-Seahawks, the sum of their individual parts has just not added up to the expected amount this year. With Breece Hall and DK Metcalf potentially out, it’s even more bleak, especially against these two solid pass defenses. Ultimately, I want to believe there is upside for a shootout in a game with Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Geno Smith, Kenneth Walker, and Jaxon Smith-Ngjiba, but the evidence through 12 weeks suggests otherwise.

Pace

There’s six teams on bye this week, and each plays at a faster than average neutral pace, which sets up week 12 to be one of the slowest-pace games of the year.

Fast Pace Matchups

1. Colts-Patriots: Combined neutral pace = 54.9 seconds

2. Jets-Seahawks: 55.5 seconds

3. Rams-Saints: 55.7 seconds

Slow Pace Matchups

1. Bucs-Panthers: 59.3 seconds

2. Bills-49ers: 59.3

3. Chiefs-Raiders: 59.2

OL/DL

DL Mismatches

• Chiefs DL vs Raiders OL

• Steelers DL vs Bengals OL

• Jets DL vs Seahawks OL

• Texans run defense vs Jags run blocking

• Vikings pass rush vs Cardinals pass blocking

• Commanders pass rush vs Titans pass blocking

• Bills run defense vs 49ers run blocking

OL Mismatches

• Chargers OL vs Falcons DL

• Vikings pass blocking vs Cardinals pass rush

• Bucs pass blocking vs Panthers pass rush

• Eagles OL vs Ravens DL

DFS Plan of Attack

No DFS plan this week, as I won’t be playing the main slate.

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