The Sketch: Week 10

The return of CMC

Week 10 Data

This chart is intended to be a one-stop shop for each matchup that details a bunch of key factors to the game, including O/U, team implied points, pace, team pass/rush rates, each teams offensive/defensive efficiency, and the strength of each teams offensive/defensive lines.¹ Below the chart, I’ll analyze a few key points that stand out.

Game Environment

Each week, this section will include analysis on each team’s projected points, pace, and matchup for their upcoming game.

Totals

Each week, I break matchups down into Slight Favorites, Clear Favorites, and Toss-up games, as those teams (that also have high O/Us) are who we want to target most.²

Slight Favorites (-3.5 to -6.5)

There’s eight slight favorites this week, with six of those falling on the main slate. Of the main slate matchups, the 49ers lead the way, with both the highest O/U and highest implied team total. As usual, the 49ers play slowly, but they haven’t been afraid to throw it this year, with a neutral PROE. However, with the long-awaited return of Christian McCaffrey, it’s at least plausible they shift slightly more to the run, especially given the matchup with this poor Bucs run defense. The Bucs pass often in neutral scripts, and given the 6.5 spread, it’s likely that they throw even more this week.

In the second tier of main slate slight favorites are the Vikings, Bills, and Falcons.

The Bills have the highest implied team total at 25.25, and are above average in both PROE and neutral pace. They face off against a Colts defense that has approached average in recent weeks, but they haven’t faced a buzzsaw like this Bills team. Still, the spread is tighter than I expected (4), suggesting the Colts might be able to keep this close. If they do, this game could easily turn into a shootout given the Colts play at one of the fastest paces in the league and throw much more with Joe Flacco under center.

The Vikings were technically a slight favorite when I started writing this, but look to have shifted into clear favorite territory by Saturday afternoon as 7 point favorites. The Jaguars pass defense has been atrocious all season, and the Vikings are an above average pass offense that is capable of ripping explosive plays from anywhere on the field. The Vikings prefer to attack through the air and will likely ramp that even higher in this matchup, but it’s difficult to see a Mac Jones-led offense keeping this close given the Vikings defense remains arguably the best in the league. Ultimately, I view the Vikings as more a bet on efficiency than volume this week.

The Falcons face a reeling Saints team that just lost to the Panthers, lost Chris Olave for probably the season, and has former star WR Michael Thomas berating Derek Carr on twitter. Oh and they also fired their coach, who may or may not have put their explosive second-year RB on the IR out of spite. It’s bleak stuff for a team that looked like one of the bastions of modern offensive football for the first two weeks of the season. Still, the spread is relatively tight at 3.5. That’s partially due to how this game matches up, as the Saints have a solid pass defense but weak run defense. The Falcons play fast, but continue to prefer a run-first attack when it’s possible. Given the Saints weak run defense and the Falcons strong rushing attack, it’s likely that’s the case this week, which places a bit of a cap on otherwise strong shootout potential.

The final tier of slight favorites includes the Giants and Bears, who implied team totals and O/Us are significantly lower. The Giants are actually not on the main slate, as I just learned while writing this, because week ten Giants-Panthers is a matchup that no one should care about. As for the Bears, I continue to want to believe. And they have continued to leave us wanting. Despite having one of the best defenses and offensive lines in football, the Bears have proven incapable of consistent offensive success. Caleb Williams has shown flashes, and I often mind myself extremely impressed by a handful of plays he makes each week. But the down-to-down consistency just hasn’t been there. That is only amplified by the explosive but inconsistent play of D'Andre Swift and the running game. While a matchup against a Drake Maye-led Patriots team that has played faster and thrown more in recent weeks at least sounds fun, at this point it’s hard to imagine many scenarios where it actually is fun.

Clear Favorites (-7 or more)

The Chiefs and Eagles are back as clear favorites this week, but you’ll notice their implied team totals aren’t elite. For the Chiefs, it’s easy to see why, as the Broncos defense has been very good this year, especially at limiting explosive passing plays. Unfortunately for the Broncos, this version of the Chiefs passing game really isn’t that concerned about explosive plays. With aging vets at slot and tight end, and a elite offensive line leading a strong and consistent rushing attack, these Chiefs are more than content to bludgeon defenses one 4-7 yard play at a time. On the other side of the ball, this Chiefs defense isn’t same the vaunted passing unit as years past, but they are effective at limiting big plays and are still very strong vs the run. While Bo Nix has improved in recent weeks, Denver still struggles with consistency and explosiveness in the passing game, and probably won’t be able to stick with the ground game for too long. Ultimately, it’s a hard game to get excited about from a fantasy standpoint.

The Eagles feel locked in as clear favorites to me, as the Cowboys were already struggling on offense with Dak Prescott at quarterback. Cooper Rush has proven to be a decent spot starter, but he no longer has a strong supporting cast or elite defense to rely on. Even with the likely return of Micah Parsons, it’s difficult to see how the Cowboys can stop this Eagles offense, unless Nick Sirianni continues his effort to discredit analytics one failed two point conversion at a time. By the pure numbers, the Eagles haven’t been a dominant offensive unit, but I think it’s telling that four of their top five weapons have struggled with injuries this year, and they still rank in the top 12 or higher in pass and rush EPA and success rate. This is a beast of a unit, and when everyone is healthy, they present similar challenges to the Ravens offense that has demolished everyone. While I effectively have zero faith in Dallas ability to fight back, it’s hard to see how the Eagles offense fails in this spot.

The Chargers are not a familiar team to the clear favorites section, but man, Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert have both really shown us they are who we thought they were this year. For Harbaugh, he has effectively remade the Chargers defense into a near elite-unit in roughly half a season, after years of atrocious play. Meanwhile, Herbert has led a band of misfit toys like he’s Yukon Cornelius in search of Silver and Gold. To those of you who get that reference, please accept the strongest of my salutes. Bottom line, Herbert and Harbaugh have already restored the Chargers to respectable status, and we should all be rooting for it to continue. This week’s matchup vs the Titans isn’t the easiest, but that’s almost entirely due to a strong Titans defense that has refused to quit despite horrible offensive play this season. Tony Pollard remains a candle in the dark for the Titans, but this Chargers’ pass defense vs a Will Levis-led Titans passing “attack” is the stuff of nightmares (for the Titans and for fantasy football).

Toss-up games (-3 to +3)

It’s a mediocre week for toss-up games, with only two on the main slate. Still, each game is fun from a real football standpoint at minimum. For Steelers-Commanders, it’s simply two quality football teams that have proven to be some of the toughest outs in the NFL from a week-to-week basis. As usual, the Steelers have an elite defense, and watching them attempt to defend against this Jayden Daniels attack will be fun. On the other side of the ball, George Pickens has shown to be a good stylistic fit with Russell Wilson and his moonball dep throws. Even with the Commanders defense improving in recent weeks, there are paths to both a good football game and a fantasy-fun shootout here.

Jets-Cardinals is also a fun matchup, as the Jets are essentially in a must-win scenario (again). Despite a 5-4 record, Vegas has labeled the Jets as 1.5 point favorites, even with them on the road. That makes sense to me, as I continue to think the Jets will morph into an above average team that is capable of playing with almost anyone. While consistency will likely be an issue (and has been for years with Rodgers’ teams), they’re one of the few teams in the league capable of stringing together elite performances on both sides of the ball for multiple series (and probably games) in a row. With an above-average Cardinals offense (and poor defense) facing off against them, I’m more excited about this game than most with a 46.5 total.

Pace

Fast Pace Matchups

1. Falcons-Saints: Combined neutral pace = 54.5 seconds

2. Bills-Colts: 55.2 seconds

3. N/A

Slow Pace Matchups

1. 49ers-Bucs: 59.3

2. Giants-Panthers: 58.2 seconds

3. Commanders-Steelers: 57.8 seconds

OL/DL

DL Mismatches

• Vikings DL vs Jags OL

• Bears pass rush vs Patriots pass blocking

OL Mismatches

• Vikings OL vs Jags DL

• Falcons OL vs Saints DL

• Bears OL vs Patriots DL

• Eagles OL vs Cowboys DL

DFS Plan of Attack

Each week, I’ll go through my plan of attack for the Draftkings main slate. This will usually consists of a few different subsections, listed below:

• The Centerpiece (the player, team, or theme that the slate hinges on)

• What to do with the chalk

• Input Volatility

• Games to target

• Lineup starters