The Impending ADP Shift
Expect a different landscape after the start of training camp
Teams start returning to training camp tomorrow, July 18, which will dramatically increase the amount and flow of information. Couple this with the return of drafters who have historically viewed the market differently than the summer grinders, and an impending ADP shift is probable. Below I examined last years’ shift in ADP from July 18 to the start of the season, analyzed how that might apply to this year, and provided recommendations on how to play it at each position.
Notable 2022 shifts after the start of training camp
Even in a more heavy RB-early environment, RBs in the top 25 were considerable risers, with 62% of them going earlier by the start of the season. After pick 25, RBs were slightly more likely to fall than to rise.
Opposite of the RBs, the early WRs were fallers, with 70% of WRs in the top 25 falling. After pick 25, it was roughly 50% whether a WR would fall or rise.
Each of the QBs going in the top-50 risers, while only 28% of pick 51-100 QBs rose. No QBs had an ADP in the top 25.
No real trend at TE, with player-specific conditions driving market movements.
What to expect in 2023
The macro ADP environment is vastly different in 2023, constituting A New Frontier. WRs go much earlier, which has opened up pockets of RB values for those drafting before training camp. The gap between the elite QBs and the 2nd and 3rd tier is also much greater than last year, while all of the non-Kelce TEs in the top 100 are cheaper than last year. So, what should we expect after factoring in last years trends?
RB and WR movements
While the best ball bros and grinders have (correctly) embraced a more wide receiver early approach, they may have slightly overdone it. Couple that with the usual early RB preference from drafters joining after the start of training camp, as evidenced by the 62% risers rate from RBs in the top 25 last year, and I’m confident that early RBs will rise. I expect that most of the RBs from picks 18 to 30, roughly estimated as Saquon Barkley to Breece Hall will rise.
As we would expect (and did occur last year), the early RB rise will likely lead to a reduced ADP for most early WRs. The elite WR2 grouping of Waddle, Smith, and Higgins seem most vulnerable, given the common refrain from industry leaders that the 2/3 turn RBs undervalued. Similarly, the relatively flat (projection wise) tier of wide receivers in round 3 will likely fall as at least one of Etienne, Gibbs, and Najee rises.
All of that said, I am very curious and not confident about what happens in the fourth and fifth round. There’s a large grouping of WRs there, with nearly all of the RBs going in round five. I think that will mostly hold, but it seems likely that at least one or two of those RBs will jump up. My lean is that it will likely be Kenneth Walker, given his highlight plays last season and strong statements from market movers, or Joe Mixon, given his name recognition and role. J.K. Dobbins and Alexander Mattison are also potential risers, though they have much further to rise.
QB and TE movements
At these positions, we’re in nearly the exact opposite position as last year. The elite QBs are much more expensive relative to their peers, while the non-Kelce TEs are much cheaper. I expect the elite TEs to rise, but I also might not be the best person to ask. I’m on record saying the market’s reaction to last season at TE is completely wrong, and I am currently overweight every non-Kelce TE going in the first 6 rounds. So, while I think the elite TEs should and are likely to rise, it’s at least plausible that the just-draft-3-late-TE bros refuse to relent.
For the QBs, I expect the current market will remain mostly static. The elite QBs have fallen about as far as they can, given the tier break at WR in the early 3rd, and the ADP of their primary stacking partners. Burrow, Fields, and Herbert constitute a very talented second tier, but they are also already aligned with their primary stacking partners, making a large shift in ADP unlikely. If any of them is to rise, it’s likely Herbert, as excitement for the new Kellen Moore-led offense is high, and he can be stacked with Ekeler, Allen, Williams, and Quentin Johnston at almost any ADP slot.
Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence are a small mini-tier, and I expect Deshaun Watson to close the gap. Since May 15, Watson’s ADP has remained static, even as most QBs (including Lawrence) were falling.
Watson’s stacking partners are aligned with him, but I can envision a slow rise up another round or so, especially if Amari Cooper is one of the round three receivers to fall. At the very end of the top-100, Anthony Richardson and Tua Tagovailoa are probably the best bets to rise. Tua has already risen some and remains one of the few quarterbacks without a back stack available, as it’s essentially just the Tyreek and Waddle show. Richardson could fall or rise depending on training camp reports, but the early statements from ownership and the coaching staff indicate they want to play him early. If we hear he’s dominating camp and/or he is on track to start week 1, a return to the round 7/8 turn is probably in play. I’m also leaving the light on for Dak Prescott, as I think the market expectation of a slow, run-heavy offense is unwarranted, and the demise of Dak’s rushing upside is largely exaggerated. However, I recognize I’m probably in the minority there, and I expect his ADP to hold in the early 100s.
How to play it
Running Back
Assuming the 2/3 turn RBs rise, I’ll likely begin my shift to more Hero and Zero RB builds, which increases in floor and ceiling as we gain more information about the RB2 situations for a handful of impactful teams. I’m currently overweight each of Pollard, Rhamondre, Jacobs, and Hall, and I’m even on Derrick Henry (despite some systemic concerns about the Titans), so I don’t feel obligated to chase them up boards. If we do see a rise from the round 4 or later backs, I’ll have little interest in chasing a volume-based rise from the likes of Alexander Mattison, Najee Harris, or Joe Mixon. However, Kenneth Walker and J.K. Dobbins both are talented backs I don’t want to be massively underweight on, and I think it’s likely at least one of them rises. I have 5% of each so far, so I would like to add a bit more of each before early August.
Wide Receiver
The golden rule of best ball remains critical, and I generally want one wide receiver for every two picks in the first 10 rounds. I don’t have strong player takes on most early/mid wide receivers, given the volatility of the position and the importance of correlation. I’ll continue to draft receivers near ADP, correlate when possible, and make sure I have 4 through 7 rounds and 5 through 10. Easy game.
Tight End
If the elite TEs rise significantly, I might ease off a bit for diversification, despite my conviction that the market is dead wrong. I’m currently at 71% elite TE (defined as a TE in the first six rounds), while the average is ~40% (5/12), so my bags are certainly packed. That said, if they hold at these prices or continue to fall, I will continue to hammer them. In my 6-7 years of playing best ball, the only other macro environment take I’ve had this level of conviction in was the RB dead zone.
Quarterback
At QB, I have much less conviction, and barring an unforseen massive shift in a QB’s ADP, I don’t expect my strategy to change much. Outside of a 16% position on Anthony Richardson and 14% position on Daniel Jones, my exposures are flat. The elite QBs are probably a bit overpriced, but only relative to other quarterbacks. They should probably go after the tier of RBs from Pollard to Hall, and after Tee Higgins and Devonta Smith at WR, and they are already in that range. I’ll likely end up slightly underweight on each. Other than that, I want to draft the QBs near or below ADP, and I want them both correlated and game stacked, as we know that increases EV. QB spike weeks separate less than other positions, so it’s mostly about drafting them effectively with the other factors in consideration.
Overall
Finally, I’d highly recommend using the Rotoviz Underdog ADP tool and checking ETR’s market movement tweets and podcasts once a week. That information will only become more valuable during training camp as the flow of information and speed of ADP movements increase.
Best Ball Summer’s transition to Best Ball Fall starts tomorrow.