The Elite QBs will be a Best Ball Flop

Hate the game, not the player(s)

Last season, the elite QBs absolutely destroyed best ball, scoring more fantasy points at the position than almost any point in the last decade. But friends, that time is done. It’s over. The QB window strikes back in 2023.

Summary:

• The elite QB dominated best ball in 2022, but that was in part due to a decade-low points total from an injured QB7-12 tier.

• The market reacted by pricing up the elite QBs by 1.5 rounds, but slightly discounted QBs 7-12,, though the points gap between the two is likely to narrow.

• The elite QBs predictably generate the most spike weeks…

• …But QB spike weeks are less valuable than spike weeks at any other position (in the best ball playoffs)

• Prioritize the great RB values at the 2/3 turn before the elite QBs, and mix in Mark Andrews with them

The elite QBs smashed in 2022

By almost any metric, the elite QBs dominated best ball 2022. They dominated in advance rates. They dominated in fantasy points over replacement. They dominated in raw points, with QBs 1-6 averaging 22.6PPG, which ranks as the second best over the last decade. They outscored their QB7-12 brethen by a whopping 4.9PPG, the most since at least 2013.

However, upon closer inspection, the success of the elite QBs in best ball was not entirely due to their own (incredibly good) performance.

A Helpful Environment

While it is true the elite QBs smashed each of the last two seasons, they certainly had some help. That primarily came in the form of the worst QB7-12 production since 2017, as the chart below shows us.

Long-term injuries to Dak Prescott, Trey Lance, and Matthew Stafford were key, and starting QBs as a whole averaged their fewest games played as a group over the last decade. However, the elites were mostly unaffected, with Mahomes starting all 17 games, Allen starting 16, and Hurts starting 15. As injuries are notoriously unpredictable, it’s likely that the injury environment will be relatively worse for the elite QBs in 2022, even if they stay healthy. This means that even if the elite QBs repeat their monstrous 2022 performance (and they certainly can), the production gap will still likely be reduced by increased QB7-12 scoring, decreasing the elite QBs win rate. However, if the market was factoring in this regression, then the elite QBs could still generate similar value to last season. Unfortunately for the elite QBs, this is not the case.

The 2023 Market

In 2022, QBs 1-6 were drafted at an average ADP of 49.8, with Josh Allen going the highest at pick 29.8. Each of Mahomes, Hurts, and Allen is going ahead of where Allen was last year, and in 2023, the average ADP of QBs 1-6 is 33.8, meaning the average QB1-6 is going roughly 1.5 rounds earlier this year. Meanwhile, QBs 7-12 are slightly cheaper than last year, with the 2022 average ADP at 82.4, and the 2023 ADP at 83.3. So, instead of pricing in the probability of a smaller point gap between QBs 1-6 and QBs 7-12, the market has reacted the opposite way, making it even more difficult for the elite QBs to generate outsized advance rates in best ball. However, if the elite QBs still separate on a weekly basis like the elite TEs, then mixing them in as likely low advance-rate but high leverage plays for the fantasy playoffs is logical.

The Elite QBs Generate the Most Spike Weeks…

As Hayden Winks writes, “Including the NFL Playoffs in 2022, there were 30 instances of a QB scoring at least 30 fantasy points, which typically means finishing as the QB1 or QB2 on the week.” Mahomes and Hurts each had five of those, Allen had four, and no other quarterback had more than three. Similarly, in 2021, out of 32 instances, Mahomes and Allen led the league with six each, and no other quarterback had more than four. So, we can confidently say that the elite QBs are generating spike weeks at a higher rate than their peers (again, they are very good). However, that alone is not enough. When they hit a spike week, they must also separate from their peers and that’s a different story…

… But QB Spike Weeks Matter Less

In the chart below, Hayden calls out the fantasy points for replacement at each position, which are significantly higher at RB and WR, with the average #1 QB and TE each tied at +14.6 points more than replacement level.

While the points over replacement level is important for regular season success, it’s less important in the playoff weeks, especially at QB. When attempting to finish first (out of 12, 20, or 441 people), we don’t care much about fantasy points over replacement at positions where we only start one player. If a team is using the replacement level score of 19.2 points at QB, that team is very likely not competing to advance/win in the playoffs (outside of some extreme structures that generate outsized results at other positions), due to the strength of the quarterback position (in comparison to tight end, where the weekly scoring is much weaker and volatile, which is why elite TE is a playoff hammer.

Instead, I’d like to draw your focus to the drop-off from the #1 to #2 to #3 at each position. These are the teams we are most likely competing against to advance/win, are the teams with the #2, #3, etc QB scores. As we compare those scores across positions in the table below, we notice that the difference from QB1 to QB2 is the least of any #1 to #1 drop-off at any position. Similarly, the drop-off from QB2 to QB3 is tied for the smallest at any position. From that point on, the drop-off from each player to the next is roughly equal at each position.

What does this mean?

Essentially, even when a QB spikes, he’s only generating a small value over other quarterbacks who played well that week. This means that a QB spike week is offering less of an edge than a spike week at any other position. Clearly, there is still value in having the highest-scoring QB on the week, and in knowing that the elite QBs offer the greatest predictability in htting spike weeks. Yet, when faced with a likely shrinking gap between the elite QBs and the other QB1s, a higher relative cost within the position, and the opportunity cost of selecting a quarterback over RB1 profiles that have never been available this late in drafts (the 2/3 turn), it’s difficult to see how the elite quarterbacks pay off their ADP either in advance rate or in the playoff weeks.

How To Play it

I don’t want *zero* of the elite QBs, as I acknowledge their massive weekly ceiling, correlation benefits, and the predictability of their spike weeks. And I planned to start drafting more of them as they fell to the 3rd round. However, the mid and late QB1s also fell, maintaining the relative positional balance in favor of the mid/late QB1s. Furthermore, the best RB value in drafts is likely at the 2/3 turn, directly next to the elite QBs. While there are scenarios (if I have a correlated player) where I will take the elite QB, they are not my main priority.

So, in most drafts, I’ll continue to prioritize the RB1s in the late second and early third over the elite QBs. If none of those RBs are available, I like the elite QBs roughly as much or slightly more than Mark Andrews (as the declining prices of Pitts, Kittle, Hockenson have tilted the balance in their favor, despite a sky-high ceiling for Andrews), and more than the wide receiver tier starting with D.K. Metcalf (which seems very flat to me). There are certainly ways to play the elite QBs, but those strategies will continue to be a secondary option for me.