The Curious Case of Kyle Pitts
Generational talent, historically bad situation... But what if it wasn't?
After writing and discussing my TE strategy piece, one of the foremost questions I and others had was what to do with Kyle Pitts. We know that Kyle Pitts is a very good, perhaps generational, tight end. His earned opportunity and efficiency metrics were elite last year. Unfortunately, he was saddled with bad quarterback, a historically low-volume passing offense, and ultimately a season-ending injury, leading to a bust of a second season, and as we can see below, a much reduced ADP relative to 2022.
Pitts 2022 ADP
Pitts 2023 ADP
But what would Pitts’ season have looked like if he merely had average quarterback play, a low-volume but not *historically-low* passing offense, and stayed healthy? And what does that mean for 2023?
Pitts himself
Pitts ran 72% of routes, earning 0.3 TPPR and 1.82 YPPR, per the Rotoviz Stealing Signals tool. Among tight ends with at least 150 routes, that ranked 11th, 1st, and 6th, certifying Pitts’ case as an elite talent.
Quarterback play
Per the Rotoviz Advanced Stats Explorer, Pitts had a catchable target rate of 57%, which was the lowest of any player with at least 25 targets. Overall, Marcus Mariota delivered a 72% catchable rate and Desmond Ridder delivered a 79% rate, which ranked 50th and 21st, respectively out of the 59 quarterbacks with at least 50 passing attempts.
This suggests two things.
Ridder likely offers at least a small upgrade in accuracy from Mariota.
Even with Mariota’s inaccuracy, Pitts ran extremely bad, with a catchable target rate 4% worse than any other player, and 8% worse than the least accurate passer in the league (it is, of course, Zach Wilson at 65%).
The league average catchable rate was Jacoby Brissett at 78%, so let’s plug that in for Pitts for now.
Passing volume
Last year Atlanta averaged 24.4 pass attempts, which ranked 31st. Over their last three games, with Ridder at quarterback, they averaged 29.7 attempts, which would’ve ranked 27th. For now, let’s use 29.7 attempts per game as Atlanta’s new total.
Health
Pitts played 10 games last year, missing the last seven. Let’s now assume he stayed healthy for all 17.
Putting it all together
In this adjusted scenario, Atlanta passed 29.7 times per game, with Pitts running 21.4 routes per game, for a total of 364 routes run in a 17 game season. With those adjustments, Pitts now would’ve totaled 120 targets.
But what if Pitts also had a 20% bump in his catchable target rate? Assuming he maintained his efficiency, that brings his totals to 80 receptions for 801 yards. TDs are notoriously volatile, but let’s say he managed to score a whopping two more touchdowns with this increased volume (though it likely would’ve been more).
Pitts’ revised 2022 line is thus: 80 receptions for 801 yards, and 4 touchdowns, for a total of 144 half-PPR points, or 8.5 PPG. That would’ve placed him as the TE8, just ahead of Evan Engram.
2023
Given his current positional ADP of TE5, slightly ahead of Goedert, the market seems to be slightly ahead of Pitts’ median outlook. If Atlanta fails to even slightly regress in passing volume, or Ridder fails to match his (small sample) catchable rate from last season, then Pitts is likely a small miss at ADP. However, Pitts has a few paths to beating or smashing his ADP (ranked in order of plausibility).
(Very Likely) Pitts scores more TDs. Again, this should have happened last year and Pitts was dominant at it in college (18% TD rate in college vs 3% TD rate in the NFL). Even a moderate bump to 6 or 7 total touchdowns puts him in the Andrews/Hockenson tier and a clear value at his current ADP.
(Likely) Pitts sees a bump in his routes rate. Last season, Pitts finished 11th in route rate at 72.1%. In 2021, he finished 5th at 77.6%. I’m not confident Pitts returns to his 2021 rate, but given he finished behind Cole Kmet and Dalton Schultz last year, at least a moderate increase seems likely.
(Roughly Even Chance) Ridder is better than Mariota AND improves on his small-sample rookie numbers. Ridder delivered an essentially league-average catchable rate in his first few starts as a rookie (without Pitts). Now in his second year, it’s plausible (arguably likely) that he improves upon that number. If he does, Pitts’ median outcome is likely about equal to his current ADP (without an increase to 6 or 7 touchdowns).
(Plausible, but unlikely) Atlanta regresses to the mean in passing volume AND then some. Even just an an additional increase of 3 pass attempts per game, bringing them to 32.7 attempts/20th overall would give Pitts roughly another 17 targets, 14 catches, and 90 yards, which bumps him just ahead of Goedert and at fair valuation to his ADP (again without an increase in touchdowns).
(Unlikely/Very Unlikely) Pitts sees a bump in his per target opportunity and efficiency. Pitts earned opportunity is already very good, at 0.3 TPPR, so I don’t see this as likely (and with more 3WR sets, this would likely decrease slightly). His per target efficiency likes does regress up a bit, but beyond that, he’s already operating at a near-elite level.
How to Play It
I labeled Pitts a Priority in my TE strategy article and this increases my confidence in that call, as he seemingly profiles as the classic small miss/big win target that wins leagues. At his current ADP, his most likely outcome is a small miss, serving as a slightly-lower-than-average advance rate player. However, his elite TPPR and YPPR still provide ideal spike week upside at a position that doesn’t have much of it. Pitts profiles as the type of playoff hammer that wins life-changing money.
Furthermore, he has multiple plausible paths to beating or smashing his ADP. If those scenarios occur, Pitts could post results similar to Mark Andrews’ 2021 season. Heading into 2021, Andrews regularly fell to the late 5th/early 6th round due to volume concerns, despite posting elite opportunity and efficiency metrics the year prior. Baltimore passed much more than expected, increasing from a dead last 25.9 pass attempts per game in 2020 to 9th in 2021 with 35.9, which led to Andrews absolutely smashing in both the regular season and playoffs.
Andrews destroys the 2021 season
To be clear, I’m not suggesting that is Atlanta’s most likely path this year. But some regression is very likely, and if Atlanta does throw at a league average or higher rate, then Pitts is likely to smash. Ultimately, drafting Pitts is not for the faint of heart, and I’ll likely cap my exposure at a maximum of 20-25%, but his small miss/big win profile remains tantalizing in the 5th round or later.