The Comprehensive Big Board Guide

Now that free agency has mostly settled, and rosters are set heading into the NFL draft, it’s time for the final sprint of the Big Board. As I write this, it remains about 20% unfilled, with a little more than 2 weeks left. I’ve finished maxing it with slow drafts and have about 150 total drafts complete now between it and the Little Board. Earlier this spring, I used Perplexity AI to write a one-page basic strategy guide for the Big Board, which served as a nice entry-level 101 guide.

As you can see above, it did a solid job, accounting for the extra two rounds and specifically emphasizing the the uncertainty and upside of the rookies. With insights like this now just one sentence away, it’s clear that our edges will have to be more in the implementation of basic strategy, and the more specific information that isn’t available to generic AI tools.

Luckily, that’s exactly what you’ll find below, as I’ve covered the incoming crop of rookies at each position, specific teams and players whose situations stand out to me, and for paying subscribers, you’ll also gain access to my player exposures, which are derived from the skin-in-the-game of 150+ drafts. I hope you enjoy and best of luck with your final Big Board drafts over the next 2+ weeks.

The Rookies

This class is a good one for fantasy, with both ceiling and depth at running back and tight end, some quality WRs, but without a locked-in elite prospect guaranteed to play the position. Quarterback is a notable weakness, with Cam Ward all-but-certain to go to the Titans, who lack the supporting infrastructure around him to generate much excitement. The secondary prospects, including Shedeur Sanders, aren’t a lock to go at the top of the draft, and aren’t in the dual-threat mold we like for fantasy.

For the purposes of the Big Board, I’ve been mostly interested in the RBs and TEs, as their prices seem reasonable/ undervalued to me. For the most part, the Underdog drafters simply refuse to underprice rookie WRs again, and given my research on this class, I think most of them are slightly overvalued. I’m still mixing them in at ADP, and of course am happy to take a faller, but none of the WRs expected to exclusively play the position strike me as great bets at ADP. However, Travis Hunter does profile as an elite WR prospect, and you’ll see an in-depth analysis on his situation further down. Below, I’ve included my drafted % of all the rookies I’ve selected through ~150 drafts, as well as my thoughts on the players that I’ve taken the largest positions.

RJ Harvey, Ollie Gordon, DJ Giddens, and Damien Martinez

For those of you looking for a sophisticated breakdown on the talents of each of these players, you’ll have to find that elsewhere. There’s a slew of analysis on that exact topic, and it informs each’s position as a target for me.¹ But in its simplest form, this is simply a great range to take a shot on rookie running backs, for two reasons.

The first is that, by nature of their ADPs, the collective market is telling us that these RBs are the best bets to be the secondary/tertiary tier of this class. Because their ADPs are higher, the market is saying that with the right landing spot, each could step into a RB2/RBBC role. However, each goes 1+ round later than the RB2 situations the market is already confident in (Charbonnet round 9, Bigsby 11, Mason 11, Spears 12, etc). When/if some of these RBs become the de facto RB2 for their new team, they will likely jump multiple rounds in ADP.

Secondly, is that the opportunity cost is very low. In round 14+, there isn’t much difference between that and a round 18 pick.² We’re simply talking about low probability bets in this range. Because running back is mostly a volume-based position, we essentially just need some of these players to play. At wide receiver, talent is more essential to fantasy production, which weakens the case for rookie WRs in this range. There’s also a surplus of cheap, veteran WR3s/WR4s through round 20, while there are few veteran RBs I’m confident will have much of a role in that range.

Together, these factors make this ADP range a collectively fruitful one for the rookie RBs, even if there is individual volatility with each. Because of that, I want to take a macro-based bet on the group, vice concentrated position on one specific player.³

Travis Hunter

The discourse on Hunter has been wild, especially to someone who comes into the prospect discussion later than most spring best ball drafters. My simplest take on Hunter is that he represents a high impact, low probability scenario. On one hand, Hunter seems likely to primarily play cornerback, as most analysts view corner as his best position. For much of the spring the market agreed, keeping his ADP in 110+ range, behind receivers such as Rashod Bateman, Rashid Shaheed, Cooper Kupp, and Keon Coleman, as you can see below.

However, while I agree with the market that Hunter is likely to primarily play cornerback, I’m not confident in that assessment. At all. We don’t know what team Hunter will play for, and two of the three most likely teams (Browns and Patriots) have a glaring need at receiver. The Patriots also want to surround second-year QB Drake Maye with weapons to give him the best chance of success.

And the market has shared this doubt. Over the last few weeks, drafts have often been a race to Hunter.⁴ This rise only accelerated after confirmation that Hunter is indeed an elite receiver prospect, in addition to his cornerback traits. He generated an all-green route chart from Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception, which Harmon called one of the best profiles he’s done. With that knowledge, it seems likely that if we knew Hunter was going to primarily/exclusively play WR, he would likely be drafted no later than the mid-third round (and arguably as high as the round 2 price tags of Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers last year). Because of that, I’ve been willing to embrace the risk with Hunter until about pick 100. Which coincidentally, I think is supported by math.

Using Sam Hoppen’s best ball mania pick value chart, we see that Hunter’s current ADP implies a value of about 50.⁵ If you assume that the market knew Hunter was playing WR, and drafted him at the 2/3 turn, that value is about 100. With that information, we can determine the market’s current probability of Hunter’s chances of primarily playing WR, by solving the below proportion.

• 100% = 100

• x% = 50

To solve, we do (100 x 50 / 100), which concludes that at his current ADP, the market projects a roughly 50% chance that Hunter primarily plays WR.⁶ At an ADP of 120, where Hunter was for the majority of the tournament, the market was projecting a roughly 35% chance he primarily played WR.

In short, Hunter is probably slightly overpriced from a median standpoint at this point in the tournament. However, if Hunter did primarily play receiver, or grow into that role by mid-season, he would roughly double the value of his current ADP (essentially meaning you had received an extra 8th/9th round draft pick). My Hunter bags are mostly packed at this point, as he was a heavy target of mine in the 110+ range. Going forward, I’ll still mix in him, but only in weaker WR rooms, and frankly, I’m never taking him ahead of Josh Downs.

Harold Fannin and Colston Loveland

Fannin’s ADP surprised me when I started drafting, as my early research had him in a tier with Tyler Warren and Loveland. Apparently, some poor workouts, a weird running style, and tweener concerns have led to the assumption that he’ll be drafted much later than the others. Those strike me as valid concerns, and if his ADP was anywhere near Warren or Loveland, I’d likely be drafting very little of Fannin. But his ADP is not the same. Instead, the market is pricing him next to Mason Taylor and Elijah Arroyo, who are names we never draft again come September. At this ADP, I’m much more willing to bet on Fannin’s insane production (he was half of Bowling Green’s passing offense). When I’m using a 3/4 TE build, Fannin injects some actual ceiling into the Tyler Higbee and Dalton Schultz options available in that range.⁷

As for Loveland, he’s one of the players I’m most uncertain on, and opinions on him vary wildly. Pat Kerrane, who I view as one of the best prospect analysts, had this to say: “And that brings us to Loveland's career run blocking grade of 49.5, nearly as bad as Kyle Pitts' 48.4 mark. To be clear, being a bad run blocker doesn't doom Loveland. It doesn't even rule out a traditional role. Sam LaPorta's 54.7 mark isn't much better. With intelligent play design, it hasn't been a problem.”

However, Kerrane goes on to note that Chris Simms has Loveland as the best blocker in the class, which mirrors this analysis from Nate Tice, who thinks Loveland is already a better blocker than Tyler Warren.

In short, Loveland is somewhere from the Kyle Pitts blocking death knell that has caused many of us pain and ruin for the last three years to the best blocking tight end in the class. Ultimately, with his a strong production profile and likely good draft capital incoming, I would prefer having more Loveland than my current 5%, probably in the ~10% range, as a roughly similar bet as pre-draft Sam Laporta from 2 years ago.

Thinking Through the Biggest Team Questions

The Colts - Daring to Believe

Don’t look now, but the Colts have assembled one of the best supporting casts in football around Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones. Josh Downs is a win-at-all depths receiver, who is dominant on short and intermediate targets. Downs finished 4th in open score in ESPN’s receiver rating (and 13th overall).⁸ But the Colts weapons don’t stop there. Michael Pittman is a rock-solid #2 weapon, who has a career open score mark in the 80th percentile. With a full offseason to recover from a nagging back issue that limited in 2024, Pittman is likely to return to his previous form. Rounding out the receiver room is Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell. Pierce is a one-trick pony, but he does his one trick well, as one of the better deep threats in the league and a great fit for Richardson skillset. Pierce finished WR28 in overall receiver rating last year, including a 1st-place finish in Catch Score. Meanwhile, Mitchell struggled to produce last year, but it probably wasn’t due to his own play, as he ranked 8th in Open Score and 18th in Overall rating.

In addition, Jonathan Taylor is still one of the better rushers in the league, while the Colts offensive line is a roughly average unit, even despite the departure of a few long-time quality pieces. Which brings us to the quarterback room.

In 2025, Anthony Richardson probably remains bad (dead last in catchable target percentage in 2024), and is unlikely to be a starting quarterback in 2026. However, Richardson is still young and lacks significant experience, having only started a total of about two seasons in college and the NFL. It is plausible, and wouldn’t even be surprising, if he takes a solid step forward. In those scenarios, this Colts offense is probably one of the better units in the league, and at least one of Downs/Pittman/the cheap is a big winner at ADP.

While directly betting on Richardson is high risk/reward given he is not a locked-in starter, he is cheap, and the extra two rounds enable more 3 and 4 QB builds. However, I prefer directly betting on the supporting pieces, both as an adjacent bet for the Richardson upside scenarios, and due to the presence of Daniel Jones.

Jones almost certainly isn’t ever going to be an average or better NFL starter. He’s a fringe starter/backup. However, similar to Sam Darnold with the Vikings last year, Jones offers a floor of competence at the position (32nd out of 57 in catchable target percentage), and a marked step up from Richardson’s 2024. In the scenarios where Richardson does not improve and is benched (or never starts in the first place), Jones can probably maintain a similar level of performance to Joe Flacco last year (69% on-target vs 71% on-target last year). In that case, Downs, Pittman, and the other weapons probably still beat their current ADPs, as their current prices assume both a high-volume rushing attack and a poor quality of targets. If/When Jones starts, I would expect both the passing volume and quality to improve.

Ultimately, it’s hard to see many paths to failure for Downs, given he finished as WR40 in Richardson games last year (WR33 without him), and is currently being drafted as WR49. In the scenarios where Richardson takes a step forward, or Jones provides baseline competence, Downs is probably significantly beating ADP. Naturally, I recommend a heavy target on Downs. While I don’t feel as strongly with the others, I still have an overweight target on Pittman (assuming health), and want a slightly overweight position on at least one of Pierce/Mitchell.⁹

The 49ers - Last Gasp or New Era?

Is the era of the 49ers dominance coming to an end? Or have they simply re-armed with new talent? With the trade of Deebo, and the uncertainty around their other offensive playmakers, the 49ers have one of the widest range of outcomes in 2025.

As the stable pieces, Purdy and Kittle are priced similarly to past seasons, and I have no issues with either at ADP. Independent of all of the other questions, Kittle still represents one of the highest weekly ceilings as tight end each week. However, so far, it seems the market is pricing in a slight decline relative to years past for the others.

CMC has fallen to their early second round, but it seems unlikely that’s his correct value. If he’s still CMC, he’s probably underpriced from both a weekly and seasonal standpoint. If he’s not, then he’s probably more of a third-round pick (or worse) in this ADP environment. Aiyuk is likely to miss at least the first game or two, and I’ve been pricing in about a four game absence. However, the news surrounding the injury haven’t been great, and it’s plausible he doesn’t ramp up until week 6 or later.

As for Jajuan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall, it’s hard to know how good either player is. Jennings was impressive in 2024 (WR10 in Overall Receiver Rating), but he’s profiled as a WR3 for the majority of his career. If Aiyuk and CMC return to their former levels, it’s reasonable to expect Jennings production to be squeezed a bit. As for Pearsall, he’s a second-year receiver tied to a quality QB and great offensive playcaller, so I want to be in on him. He also finished 20th in Overall Recevier Rating (and 27th in Open Score), suggesting that he does have some talent. However, he didn’t produce well, even with injuries to CMC, Deebo, and Aiyuk for much of the year.

Ultimately, I’ve taken an even position on the 49ers so far, as I think the market has done a very good job of pricing their relative upsides and risks. However, monitoring the health of Aiyuk and CMC is key, as negative news could (and probably should) spike a strong ADP jump for Jennings and Pearsall.

Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers - Attacking certainty and bias

I know no one wants to hear it (including me), but Aaron Rodgers played fine-ish in 2024. The Jets finished 18th in dropback EPA, 19th in dropback success rate, and Rodgers was 25th in QBR. He also finished 9th in catchable target percentage and 8th in on-target percentage. While he’s a far cry from the Rodgers of old, he’s probably still a roughly average starting quarterback in the league.

So, assuming he does sign with Pittsburgh, it’s easy to be excited about the Steelers. For one, the Steelers have put together a great outside receiver combination, with George Pickens and D.K. Metcalf (24th and 31st in Open Score). While neither is truly a tier one talent, both offer strong vertical route running and have stretches of dominance at the catch point. I like the fit of Rodgers simply throwing a catchable, on-target ball near them, and letting them win at the catch point.

Additionally, the Steelers have other quality weapons, including low-volume dynamo Jaylen Warren at running back, and the competent Pat Freiermuth at tight end. With a roughly average offensive line, it’s easy to envision another Mike Tomlin-led team exceeding expectations, even if it’s led by a quarterback most of us are tired of hearing about. Rodgers remains a favorite last round QB pick, and I’m willing to continue targeting Pickens (who is cheaper but arguably better) and Metcalf at ADP.¹⁰