Reach for the Skyy

...and roll the clip

In The New Frontier, with more elevated wide receiver ADP than ever before, finding upside at the position is critical. Hitting on late-WR breakouts allows us to take advantage of the running back values early, chase the elite predictability and upside of the star quarterbacks, and leverage the unique benefits elite tight ends offer.

However, the market has priced up some of our longstanding macro edges at the position, most notably the upside that second-year and rookie wide receivers offer, making talented breakout candidates at receiver more difficult to find. Yet, there is one second year wide receiver that the market is tepid on, despite an underrated rookie year and the fact that he is likely to be Patrick Mahomes’ slot WR this year.

That player is Skyy Moore.

Moore as a Prospect

Both the analytics and film communities considered Moore a very good prospect. In Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception prospect profile on Moore (image below), Moore flashed an ability to win vs any coverage type, leading Harmon to state,

“Moore is an outstanding separator at every level of the field and against a variety of defensive looks.”

Per Harmon, Moore also flashed versatility, lining up both at X and in the slot, and facing press more often than the average prospect (and shredding it when he did face it). If that’s not enough, Moore also converted contested catches at a 71% rate, which is very good. Bottom line here, based on film analysis, Moore profiled as a versatile weapon with very good route running and contested catch ability.

The analytics community was also largely in on Moore, as he checked multiple boxes, declaring early, producing an elite career yardage share, having a very good career YPPR, etc. The most consistent knocks on Moore were his size, that he played at a small school, and that he lacked the consistent ability to win deep down the field, all of which which might limit his ultimate ceiling. A year later, and we see evidence that both Moore’s positive and negative traits followed him to the NFL.

Moore as a Rookie

As a rookie, the Chiefs certainly didn’t make life easy for Moore, asking him to learn all three wide receiver positions, and trying him out as a punt returner (in which he flopped and will hopefully never do again). As Harmon notes, “Moving up from Western Michigan to Andy Reid’s offense is a massive learning curve – like relocating to a foreign country, learning the language and getting used to driving on the opposite side of the road.” When looking at Moore’s rookie year stats, it certainly seems he faced a steep learning curve.

Yet, when evaluating his rookie season through the lens of Reception Perception (which is a strong signal of a wide receiver’s true talent), Moore’s rookie season looks much stronger.

Despite being asked to learn and play multiple receiver spots, and serve as as a returner, Moore was roughly average vs both man and zone coverage last year. He also maintained his ability to shred press coverage, defeating it at a 70% clip. He did struggle on downfield routes, but he maintained his separation ability at short and intermediate depths.

Compared to 2022 Chiefs slot WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (the role that Patrick Mahomes expects Moore to play in 2023), Moore showed a much greater ability to beat man and press coverage, while Juju was better vs zone coverage. Both were significantly better than presumed Chiefs WR1 Kadarius Toney.

Similarly, when evaluating Moore through the lens of advanced metrics, his rookie season is a bit underrated. When comparing Moore to Smith-Schuster, Toney, and offseason free agent addition/2023 slot competition Richie James on a per-route-basis, Moore both roughly earned the same level of volume and was as efficient as the others, despite being a rookie and learning each of the Chiefs’ receiver spots.

What about Richie James?

If there is a player to be concerned about, it’s probably Richie James. As noted above, James earned similar volume and was as efficient as Moore last year. He also finished with a solid ESPN receiver score, ranking 24th out of 82 qualifying receivers. That said, it seems notable that the Giants let him walk in free agency, and the Chiefs only gave him a one year contract with only $400,000 guaranteed. It’s also less likely James improves than Moore, given he’s 28 years old and a five-year veteran, while Moore is still just 22 years old. While James is a bet worth making in the last few rounds (and I’m making it), he is not a reason to fade Moore.

Aren’t you worried about that rookie the Chiefs drafted?

Not really. Before the draft, the dynasty community viewed Rashee Rice as a late-round prospect (Jakob Sanderson had him as a tier 9 player at WR12 in his pre-draft ranks), as he failed to dominate low-end college competition until his senior year, meaning he also wasn’t an early declare. On the positive side, Rice does offer a great combination of size and speed, and he did receive late second round draft capital, leading Jakob to bump him to WR9 in his post-draft rookie ranks.

However, in Rice’s Reception Perception profile, his success rate vs. man, zone, and press coverage are among the lowest recorded for prospects ever, as we see below, and Harmon also notes he was inconsistent in contested catch situations.

In effect, despite his size/speed advantage, Rice is considerably worse than Moore at every aspect of actually playing receiver. Furthermore, Rice played more of the X role at SMU, so he probably isn’t even competing with Moore for a role this season.

How to play it

In sum, Moore is probably an average or slightly above average NFL wide receiver against all forms of coverage, who is at his best at short and intermediate depths. The Chiefs have recognized this, given Mahomes’ expectation that Moore will start in the slot this year. As the Chiefs starting slot receiver, he will run routes at those depths often, occasionally running the corner routes he excelled at in 2022 as a change-up when defenses play the Chiefs tight. In short, this should maximize his skillset.

Last year in the slot role, Juju Smith-Schuster, who’s probably a similar or slightly worse talent, was drafted as WR21 at an ADP of 43. Juju finished WR38 in fantasy points over replacement with an above expectation 19.4% advance rate. Moore is currently being drafted as WR52, going 70 picks after where Juju was selected last year. Assuming Mahomes and Moore are both healthy, and Moore solidifies his role as the starting slot, it’s hard to envision a path where Moore isn’t at least a small win at ADP, with added potential to finish as a low-end WR2 (which would probably mean he’d generate one of the best advance rates of any receiver).

In a macro environment where late-round receiver upside is harder to find and more impactful than ever, the Skyy is the ceiling for Moore. Roll the clip.