Final Thoughts: Week 7

Including a short midseason best ball mania update

Best Ball Mania

In lieu of a TNF recap, I’m going to do a best ball check-in, as we enter the halfway point of the regular season. As you can see from my BBM Portfolio snapshot, it’s been a good start for me in Best Ball Mania, as I’m advancing 21.3% of my teams, which is about 5% better than expectation, in part due some injury luck.

That’s despite most of my top exposures having below average advance rates so far, which given the gauntlet aspect of the playoff weeks, is exciting. While Najee Harris is now a stone zero, advancing 24% Nico Collins, 21% Josh Downs, and 18% Jaylin Noel is very fun.

Another exciting element is that I’m a better bet to advance more teams than less going forward, with 32 entries less than 50 points behind and 20 less than 50 points ahead.

All-in-all, I’m happy with my BBM performance so far, and love being able to quickly check the status of my teams via this tool. Kudos to Best Ball Data Muse for building such a fun and useful site.

Sunday Football

Injury Considerations

QBs:

• Kyler Murray - questionable (20% to play)

• JJ McCarthy - questionable (5% to play)

• Brocky Purdy - out

RBs:

• D’Andre Swift - questionable (80% to play)

• Josh Jacobs - questionable (50% to play)

• Bucky Irving - out

WRs:

• Stefon Diggs - questionable (90% to play)

• Mike Evans - questionable (85% to play)

• Jakobi Meyers - questionable (55% to play)

• Emeka Egbuka - questionable (35% to play)

• Garrett Wilson - doubtful (15% to play)

• Terry McLaurin - out

• Chris Godwin - out

• Josh Downs - out

• Calvin Ridley - out

• Puka Nacua - out

• Deebo Samuel - out

• Ricky Pearsall - out

TEs:

• Zach Ertz - questionable (85% to play)

• Brock Bowers - doubtful (15% to play)

• David Njoku - out

Weather Considerations

As you might have guessed, I am not a meteorologist. However, there are some occasions where weather impacts my start/sit decisions, or DFS considerations. My process for accounting for this to usually look at Kevin Roth’s analysis here, and via NFLweather.com, before breaking it down into a watch vs warning methodology to get a quick handle on it.

Weather Watch - monitoring, but no knock to projection

• Rams vs Jaguars (London): 96% chance of rain, 9mph wind

• Panthers at Jets: 16% chance of rain, 13mph wind

• Texans at Seahawks: 31% chance of rain

Weather Warning - small knock to projection

• Saints at Bears: 36% chance of rain, 14mph wind

• Dolphins at Browns: 76% chance of rain, 16mph wind

• Patriots at Titans: 35% chance of thunderstorms, 17mph wind

My Start/Sit Decisions

In this section, I’ll provide the tougher start/sit decisions I’m making, and why I’m doing it. I’ll also keep a running count on these over the course of the year. My goal for these start/sit decisions is to be 50% or better, as most of these are coinflips (or worse) in projections. For tracker purposes, I use 5 points as the difference between correct, neutral, and wrong.

Season Tracker: 14 correct, 14 neutral, 5 wrong - 73%

• Weeks 1-5: 11 correct, 12 neutral, 4 wrong - 73%

• Week 6: 3 correct, 2 neutral, 1 wrong - 75%

Week 7 Start/Sits

David Montgomery > D’Andre Swift

Both the Bucs and the Saints have very good run defenses, so I’m not excited to start either player. By projection, the play should be Swift, who is still the lead back for Chicago, while Monty has been relegated to a less than 1B role this year. However, I’m going to go with Monty for a few reasons. First, is that the Swift enters with a groin injury, following an increase in snaps for Kyle Monangai last week. It’s at least plausible this is more of a time share than it’s been in recent weeks. Secondly, is that the Bears have a total four points less than the Lions, meaning the touchdowns chances of Monty and Swift are probably quite close. Finally, it’s plausible we see an expanded role for Monty this week, following Dan Campbell’s comments that he wants the backfield split to be a little closer. Put simply, I expect tighter usage between these two this week, and the Lions higher total and larger favorite increases my confidence in Monty.

Jordan Mason > Kimani Vidal

Vidal gets a good matchup vs a poor Colts rushing defense, and the Chargers are slight favorites, while the Vikings are slight underdogs. However, the Vikings have a run blocking advantage, while the Chargers continue to be a pass-first offense. Plus, Mason has a more locked-in role than Vidal, who is probably the lead back again, but there’s an element of uncertainty there. I’m viewing each as a fine RB2 play, but slightly prefer betting on Mason, who has the slight projection edge.

Justin Herbert > Jordan Love

The weekly staple decision continues, as Herbert is projected for one more point than Love this week. The Packers have the higher total (26 vs 24.75), and the tougher run matchup, especailly with Josh Jacobs out. However, the Chargers remain a pass-first offense, and get Quentin Johnston back, and have one of the best and deepest pass-catching units in the league. Even while writing this, I’m not sure which bet I prefer. Given my opponent has Josh Jacobs and Michael Pittman, I expect to make this decision based on how the early games go. For now, I slightly prefer Herbert, as there is more shootout potential in Colts-Chargers than in Packers-Cardinals.

Mac Jones > Sam Darnold

Both the 49ers and Seahawks face tough pass defenses, but the 49ers probably throw the ball more (4.1 PROE vs -3) and have the higher total (24 vs 22). Jones has made his share of bad mistakes, but he has productive strong outings with replacement level pass-catchers, and gets George Kittle and Jajuan Jennings back this week. I view his floor and ceiling as higher than Darnold’s, even despite Darnold’s better real-life play.

Mason Taylor > Oronde Gadsden

I love Gadsden as a target in deeper leagues and in dynasty, as he has produced early, despite strong target competition. He also is part of a good pass-first offense with Justin Herbert at QB, and Greg Roman as offensive coordinator, who has a strong scheme for tight ends. However, in a decent matchup this week, I have to prefer Taylor, who might be his teams #1 option this week. Taylor also gets a strong schematic matchup, as the Panthers run zone coverage and cover-3 at a high rate.

DFS Decisions

In week seven, there is a clear top game, with the Cowboys and Commanders projected for a shootout, and some strong chalk, as those teams, the Chiefs, and the Colts-Chargers are dominating the projection environment. I view the fields interest in those games and players as largely correct, and largely want to find ways to play similar lineups and get unique one-off pieces in. However, there are a few contrarian QB stacks that are interesting, which will probably offer leverage opportunities.

The Chalk

Quarterback

• Jayden Daniels 20%

• Patrick Mahomes 15%

• Dak Prescott 15%

Running Back

• Quinshon Judkins 30%

• Jonathan Taylor 20%

• Jacory Croskey-Merritt 20%

• Javonte Williams 20%

• Breece Hall 12%

• Kimani Vidal 12%

• Emmanuel Wilson 12%

Wide Receiver

• Rashee Rice 40%

• CeeDee Lamb 30%

• Quentin Johnston 20%

• Chris Moore 15%

• Jaylin Lane 15%

• Justin Jefferson 15%

Tight End

• Zach Ertz 25%

• Mason Taylor 10%

• Tyler Warren 10%

• Jake Ferguson 10%

Defense

• Patriots 16%

• Broncos 12%

• Panthers 10%

• Browns 10%